2018 College Prospect Thread

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

Mayock said that with Rosen's injury history and his inability to get out of the pocket, he doesn't think he'll last in the NFL

I hope every other NFL team follows Mayock’s thinking.  

[thebestever6]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I hope every other NFL team follows Mayock’s thinking.  

There's a reason the Bills who just lost their center and have an aging oline wants to trade up for Rosen.

[jolly red giant]

If Elway gets Cousins and there is a QB left at 1.5 then the Broncos could win from a bidding war to get that spot.

[thebestever6]

16 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

If Elway gets Cousins and there is a QB left at 1.5 then the Broncos could win from a bidding war to get that spot.

My biggest fear is us signing Cousins doing all of this. Getting great players. Yet we see Mayfield, Allen, or Jackson lighting it up somewhere. And we go 8-8 realizing we have 3 or 4 more years of this.

[thebestever6]

With Dolphins trying to do a blockbuster trade to trade up in the draft for jordan howard and the 8th pick I think it's safe to say they want Mayfield.

[thebestever6]

Broncos met with 7 qbs at the combine Lamar Jackson was one of them. Falk, and Rudolph the others along with the big 4 hard to say where they go. Can't rule him out.

[Broncofan]

21 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

With Dolphins trying to do a blockbuster trade to trade up in the draft for jordan howard and the 8th pick I think it's safe to say they want Mayfield.

Rapsheet already shot down that trade scenario.  Landry is going to get 12-14M AAV while Howard is getting paid min wage on rookie deal for 2 more years.   CHI should be getting the pick upgrade.  Sounds like a MIA-driven story.   No doubt they’d like to move up with Landry but doubt at his price for a contract they get any Day 1 upgrade.  A 4th would be a win for them.  

 

 

[jolly red giant]

40 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

My biggest fear is us signing Cousins doing all of this. Getting great players. Yet we see Mayfield, Allen, or Jackson lighting it up somewhere. And we go 8-8 realizing we have 3 or 4 more years of this.

Put Cousins into last years team and you go  9-7 or better

Add some pieces from a good draft (e.g. a couple of starting OLmen) and you go 12-4

Miss on the QB in the draft and it doesn't matter what pieces you add in free agency - at best we are 8-8

[thebestever6]

30 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

Put Cousins into last years team and you go  9-7 or better

Add some pieces from a good draft (e.g. a couple of starting OLmen) and you go 12-4

Miss on the QB in the draft and it doesn't matter what pieces you add in free agency - at best we are 8-8

This is so optimistic I say a firm no. What 4 teams would we have beaten with Cousins? We had young safties playing, a turn style rt, we couldn't cover an rb or a te. 

We had turnover issues outside of qb. I think you undersell how hard it is to win in this  league. 

[Broncofan]

Just to bring back the OL discussion..O’Neill helped himself but the power Q esp after the Senior Bowl struggles remain.   Meanwhile...

Sadly I would be shocked to see Miller there at 2.7.   Might get to top 20 pick now.  

[Broncofan]

27 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

This is so optimistic I say a firm no. What 4 teams would we have beaten with Cousins? We had young safties playing, a turn style rt, we couldn't cover an rb or a te. 

We had turnover issues outside of qb. I think you undersell how hard it is to win in this  league. 

@BUF, CIN, both KC losses and NYG our QB play sunk us.   And while the final score was 21-0, the @LAC game was a 2-score game until the last 5 mins - and the TO's that day were all on Siemian's awful play (not just the pick, but the fumble in the 2Q in LAC territory was all him).  All games where better QB play could have made a legit difference.   It's not realistic to say we'd have won all 6 with a top 10 QB - but 3-4, it's a very plausible argument.    Frankly, WAS with a lesser QB loses 4 more of their own games (NYG, SEA, LAR and SF W's were all on him, and frankly, even our game, he made plays happen despite Von being all over him).   Plus, the NO L was actually one the play-calling about sitting on a lead with 5 mins to go up 14, he was amazing then.   And again, 2017 happened in the context of a bottom-5 WR corps, no run game, an OL that was bottom-10 (and actually way worse once they lost T Trent Williams and 2 other starters), yet the WAS pass game was 11th overall - that's literally all on Cousins. 

There's no doubt at 25-30M AAV, with all that $ tied up in Cousins given we're not even close to a complete team, if that gets us to the road to contention, or if it just condemns us to mediocrity.   Because at 8-8/9-7, we're close to playoffs, but not really good enough to contend - and so we'd need to hit it out of the park in the drafts.  Which given the record Elway's had since 2011, and especially since 2013 SB48, when he went away from overall BPA and started to lock in on guys, is very iffy to bank on.    But there's no need to try and negate valid arguments - questioning Cousins because of his cost is a good enough argument, either take is very valid.   Trying to suggest he wouldn't have made us better by 3-4 W's given how our QB play sunk us on many games, given how bad our QB play was and how many of our L's went down, it's a thin argument to say the least.  

[thebestever6]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

@BUF, CIN, both KC losses and NYG our QB play sunk us.   And while the final score was 21-0, the @LAC game was a 2-score game until the last 5 mins.  All games where better QB play could have made a difference.   It's not realistic to say we'd have won all 6 with a top 10 QB - but 3-4, it's a very plausible argument.    Frankly, WAS with a lesser QB loses 4 more of their own games (NYG, SEA, LAR and SF W's were all on him, and frankly, even our game, he made plays happen despite Von being all over him).   Plus, the NO L was actually one the play-calling about sitting on a lead with 5 mins to go up 14, he was amazing then.   And again, 2017 happened in the context of a bottom-5 WR corps, no run game, an OL that was bottom-10 (and actually way worse once they lost T Trent Williams and 2 other starters), yet the WAS pass game was 11th overall - that's literally all on Cousins. 

There's no doubt at 25-30M AAV, with all that $ tied up in Cousins given we're not even close to a complete team, if that gets us to the road to contention, or if it just condemns us to mediocrity.   Because at 8-8/9-7, we're close to playoffs, but not really good enough to contend - and so we'd need to hit it out of the park in the drafts.  Which given the record Elway's had since 2011, and especially since 2013 SB48, when he went away from overall BPA and started to lock in on guys, is very iffy to bank on.    But there's no need to try and negate valid arguments - questioning Cousins because of his cost is a good enough argument, either take is very valid.   Trying to suggest he wouldn't have made us better by 3-4 W's given how our QB play sunk us on many games, given how bad our QB play was and how many of our L's went down, it's a thin argument to say the least.  

Ok so it gets us to 8 and 8 probably.  We're at 26 mill in cap room need to get to 50 to sign Cousins how much more talent will we lose? Plus, we have to sign draft picks. 

And how many games that you mention did teams just sit on the lead because our offense was non threatening. I think 4 more wins is optimistic. 

It's also not like everyone in the league isn't trying to get better.

[jsthomp2007]

2 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Ok so it gets us to 8 and 8 probably.  We're at 26 mill in cap room need to get to 50 to sign Cousins how much more talent will we lose? Plus, we have to sign draft picks. 

And how many games that you mention did teams just sit on the lead because our offense was non threatening. I think 4 more wins is optimistic. 

It's also not like everyone in the league isn't trying to get better.

I think our cap figure went up another $10MM.  I saw some where we rolled over some money from the previous year.  

[thebestever6]

2 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I think our cap figure went up another $10MM.  I saw some where we rolled over some money from the previous year.  

Yea I saw that too and it said it got it to 26 million I'll double check sporatic.

 

Over the cap says we have 24 million in cap room

[Broncofan]

11 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Ok so it gets us to 8 and 8 probably.  We're at 26 mill in cap room need to get to 50 to sign Cousins how much more talent will we lose? Plus, we have to sign draft picks. 

And how many games that you mention did teams just sit on the lead because our offense was non threatening. I think 4 more wins is optimistic. 

It's also not like everyone in the league isn't trying to get better.

Sure, but the point remains - Cousins last year gets us somewhere between 8-8 and 9-7.  That's not a crazy take that @jolly red giant is making to say 9-7, if you want to say 8-8, we're starting to split hairs, which is pointless in a true dialogue.   In either scenario, we'd still have to knock it out of the park with the draft (which he acknowleged), given how bad our cap situation would be, and the sacrifices we'd make - and given Elway's draft track record in the last 3 years, that's not something we should feel comfortable about, either.   I just don't think it's worth arguing how many W's Cousins gets us, it's clear it's a bunch - just like it's clear we'd still have a lot of work to do to get to true contention. 

If I knew we could get Darnold or Rosen, I'd say pass on Cousins.  But we don't know that.  Plus, I don't say that because I think Cousins isn't a difference maker - he's absolutely a difference maker.  To be clear, if any of the 4 rookie QB's ended up at Cousins' skill level right now after 2-3 years, I'd say it's a success.     It's just that $ matters.   

At 25-30M, we're not just a QB away, or even close - so if we had to go through 1 more year of growing pains, and we could get to Cousins-level and be 20M+ a year cheaper - then it makes Elway's job of rebuilding the rest of the roster that much easier.   Getting Cousins narrows Elway's path to success to having to nail the draft alone.  But either way, it's a calculated risk - Cousins and cap tightness throughout the next 2-3 years minimum, or a better cap situation, but with a rookie QB who might not even get to Cousins' level ever (although I feel safer with Rosen/Darnold), and in Allen's case, could bust completely.     And worse, we can't be sure which of the rookies we're getting.    If we knew it was Darnold/Rosen, I'm all for that route for sure.

FWIW, I still believe MIN is in the driver's seat for Cousins, so we're probably going the rookie route (please god, not the 15-20M other FA QB route either).   Which is what makes Elway's evaluation of how he sees Rosen/Darnold/Allen/Mayfield so crucial.