2018 College Prospect Thread

[thebestever6]

Billy Price Is believed to have  a torn pec. That injury comes with a 5 or 6 month recovery time.

Are the Broncos not the perfect team to draft him? With Mcgovern, Leary, and Paradis I love those guys.  I just have no faith in Leary and Paradis staying healthy a whole year. We still don't know what Mcgovern is. I think Price will be close to being ready by the regular season at most he misses a month. Perfect timing if he falls to us.

[thebestever6]

I was 5 rounds into a sweet mock draft and I hit the back button by accident. Had pictures and everything. 

[broncos67]

6 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

I was 5 rounds into a sweet mock draft and I hit the back button by accident. Had pictures and everything. 

That is literally the worst. I've done that a few times here over the years and I just get annoyed every time.

[broncos67]

Running back will likely be a Top 3 round pick for us, and I don't really think Anderson is sticking around. We met with Ronald Jones yesterday. He's an intriguing prospect, and of course, we met with Kalen Ballage. I'm certain we'll draft Ballage because he's from Colorado and that appears to be a prerequisite for being an early draft pick in Denver these days.

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Billy Price Is believed to have  a torn pec. That injury comes with a 5 or 6 month recovery time.

Are the Broncos not the perfect team to draft him? With Mcgovern, Leary, and Paradis I love those guys.  I just have no faith in Leary and Paradis staying healthy a whole year. We still don't know what Mcgovern is. I think Price will be close to being ready by the regular season at most he misses a month. Perfect timing if he falls to us.

Here's the rub, if the torn pec is serious enough to require surgery - it's a 5-6 month recovery time to return to play and full weights.   In most cases, the player is not doing full weights until Month 5-6.   Most of the recovery is spent rehabbing, healing first, then gradual increase in recovery of function, and it's not restorative for functional strength.   For a CB like Fabian Moreau, the loss in functional strength is bothersome, but it's only part of the skill set to play every down.  For an interior OL, functional strength loss is catastrophic - for 2018, it creates a high likelihood of not just lost time, but sub-par performance of what's hoped for that entire year.    An offseason spent without a strength/conditioning program to further add strength to a college player puts his Year 1 playing ability nowhere near the normal curve.   As a simple example - Paradis spent all offseason rehabbing his hip, could not do strength/conditioning this past offseason - and we saw the drop in performance related to being mauled by power.   The same problem is going to be there for Price, in spades.

The other risk is that if you try to play with that decreased strength and the pec which is healed but not as strong - the risk of cascade injury (injuring another part of upper body with greater stress/favoring those components) when you return.   This is what happened to Will Beatty in 2015 - injured May, returned 5-6 months later to practice - but then shoulder injury - out for season.   There are only about 12-15 pec tears requiring surgery since 2000, but the variability in recovery and need to avoid full weights for that period is well documented, so we know there's a loss in strength for 2018; the risk of cascade injury by itself wouldn't be the sole factor, but you add it to a guaranteed loss of functional strength for 2018, it's easy to see why the draft drop is being forecasted, and especially for early Rd 2 - Elway's failures mask the fact that Rd 2 picks aren't automatically seen as Year 1 redshirts (our record just makes it seem that way) - and especially when we're picking this early.

The good news for Price is there is no reason this should be a long-term injury risk, or career-ender - provided he doesn't return to play too soon, or suffers that cascade injury.  By 2019, there's every reason to believe he'd be at peak form.  But the above, assuming the pec tear is major and needs surgery, is known, and means the likelihood he can contribute to Year 1 at the same projected level pre-injury is really low.   That's why the drop to Round 3 and 3.8 is one teams may allow us to consider.   All of which to say, the 3-year potential for great play makes him a slam dunk for 3.8.  2.7, though, given the real risk Year 1 is a functional redshirt, we'll have so many other great options (so long as Elway doesn't fall for the insane-physical tools, bust-floor guy 2 rounds ahead of his ADP), I don't see us thinking about him at 2.7.  3.8+, sure.   

Either way...it's really too bad for Price.   But, at least long-term he should be ok so long as the recovery doesn't run into problems.    Moving forward, I'm looking forward to Day 2.  The Combine gets too much love to rank guys on its own, but it's still valuable info, regardless, that we can access.   Can't wait to see the drills start today.

[paul-mac]

24 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Running back will likely be a Top 3 round pick for us, and I don't really think Anderson is sticking around. We met with Ronald Jones yesterday. He's an intriguing prospect, and of course, we met with Kalen Ballage. I'm certain we'll draft Ballage because he's from Colorado and that appears to be a prerequisite for being an early draft pick in Denver these days.

 

I'd love Saquon Barkley, but if we don't get him then I think keeping Anderson is the best move. Can always cut him after the draft.

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

 

I'd love Saquon Barkley, but if we don't get him then I think keeping Anderson is the best move. Can always cut him after the draft.

Very true - but people should then refrain from the "Elway should have cut him at FA out of respect" angle.  They can't have it both ways.

If we draft a RB Rd 2-3, given what we saw with trying to roster 4 guys on the 53-man roster (never worked), though, cutting CJ is a foregone conclusion.  FWIW, barring injury or arrest, I don't think we have a prayer at 1.5 that Barkley will be there.   Elite performance on tape, at a young age...and I suspect a historic Combine is coming.

[paul-mac]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Very true - but people should then refrain from the "Elway should have cut him at FA out of respect" angle.  They can't have it both ways.

If we draft a RB Rd 2-3, given what we saw with trying to roster 4 guys on the 53-man roster (never worked), though, cutting CJ is a foregone conclusion.  FWIW, I don't think we have a prayer at 1.5 that Barkley will be there.

 

I don't want Kirk Cousins, but if we get him and QBs go 1 and 2 then we should consider trading up to 3 for Barkley.

[Broncofan]

22 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

 

I don't want Kirk Cousins, but if we get him and QBs go 1 and 2 then we should consider trading up to 3 for Barkley.

I love Barkley but if we could get Sony Michel at 2.7 or Rashaad Penny at 3.8 or later I’d love BPA of Nelson/Minkah at 1.5. Trading up to 1.3 costs a 2nd or even 2 2nds.   Easy call for a QB but RB shelf life so short and fungible.  The RB class this year is again so deep.  

[Broncofan]

BTW - while Price has a torn pec it’s partial - the key is how bad it is.  If it can be managed without surgery then the recovery allows for offseason strength / conditioning.   If it’s surgery then the above statements hold.   Surgery or not will be the big news.  

 

[Scoundrel]

We need to let D Henderson get a chance

[Broncofan]

While I love Barkley and Michel Rd 2 / Penny Rd 3+ more than Guice I tip my cap his presser was awesome. 

But it pales to Nelson’s.  It's easy to fall in love with a prospect, and ignore/overlook/dismiss their faults.  But Nelson really does appear to check all the boxes - physical size, skills, technique on film.  Success at a young age.  Elite performance (not just tools) on tape, and vs. elite opponents.   Mean streak.  And clearly an intelligent guy.   Really the most complete OL prospect in a while IMO.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/sports/broncos/quenton-nelson-makes-quite-an-impression-during-nfl-combine-presser

 

Nelson was asked to defend his status as a potential top-five pick in the draft.

"I think I should be part of the top-five conversation, because you have [offensive interior linemen] that are dominating the NFL right now—Aaron Donald, Geno Atkins, Fletcher Cox—that have just been working on interior guys," Nelson said. "And you need guys to stop them. And I think I'm one of those guys. ...

"You talk to quarterbacks, and they say that if a defensive end gets on the edge, that's fine: They can step up into the pocket and they can throw. A lot of quarterbacks, if given the opportunity, can do that. So that's what I give: a pocket to step up in.

"I think I also help the offense establish the run, with my nastiness. By establishing the run, it also opens up the passing game. So I think it's a good choice."

 

 

 

[champ11]

SMH

 

 

[iLikeDefense]

So Nick Hardwick absolutely loves Will Hernandez and wasn't so hot on Orlando Brown. Apparently he worked with both prior to the combine. I really enjoy his football talk here in SD.

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

So Nick Hardwick absolutely loves Will Hernandez and wasn't so hot on Orlando Brown. Apparently he worked with both prior to the combine. I really enjoy his football talk here in SD.

To be honest, functional strength and short-area burst aren't measured well by Combine BP & 40 times (from what I'm told by others with better OL evaluation skills 10-yard split is more important) - but Brown's going to test poorly with his split.   His tape and drill work will help him more for sure.  

The biggest reason why he's a DND - his conditioning is suspect, and for a team in altitude, that's a no-go.   Workout warriors get overrated but the reverse applies - out of shape guys can't play in DEN.   To me, Brown is such a risk for this, he's automatically off our draft list unless the discount is insane - which it won't be.   That's how T needy teams are, guys with warts will go top 50 even if they're only RT eligible.