2018 College Prospect Thread

[thebestever6]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Sure, but the point remains - Cousins last year gets us somewhere between 8-8 and 9-7.  That's not a crazy take that @jolly red giant is making.   We'd still have to knock it out of the park with the draft, given how bad our cap situation would be, and the sacrifices we'd make - and given Elway's track record, that's not something we should feel comfortable about, either.   I just don't think it's worth arguing how many W's Cousins gets us, it's clear it's a bunch - just like it's clear we'd still have a lot of work to do to get to true contention. 

If I knew we could get Darnold or Rosen, I'd say pass on Cousins.  But we don't know that.  Plus, I don't say that because I think Cousins isn't a difference maker - he's absolutely a difference maker.  To be clear, if any of the 4 rookie QB's ended up at Cousins' skill level right now after 2-3 years, I'd say it's a success.     It's just that $ matters.   

At 25-30M, we're not just a QB away, or even close - so if we had to go through 1 more year of growing pains, and we could get to Cousins-level and be 20M+ a year cheaper - then it makes Elway's job of rebuilding the rest of the roster that much easier.   Getting Cousins narrows Elway's path to success to having to nail the draft alone.  But either way, it's a calculated risk - Cousins and cap tightness throughout the next 2-3 years minimum, or a better cap situation, but with a rookie QB who might not even get to Cousins' level ever (although I feel safer with Rosen/Darnold), and in Allen's case, could bust completely.     And worse, we can't be sure which of the rookies we're getting.   

Thats why the wild card for me is whod we have to get rid of to get cousins. That matters . The draft has a lot of good options if we do or don't go qb. I dont know how I feel getting rid of championship caliber players for Cousins.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Thats why the wild card for me is whod we have to get rid of to get cousins. That matters . The draft has a lot of good options if we do or don't go qb. I dont know how I feel getting rid of championship caliber players for Cousins.

I think we're getting rid of Talib and CJ even if we don't get Cousins.   Because we need to rebuild the roster and not be so top-heavy in some positions, plus worried about age-related decline (Talib), or we have a very clear direction that we're going to draft another talent in an insanely deep pool (CJ & RB).    As much as CJ has been a warrior for us, this RB class is so insanely talented, it would be nuts for us to pass on drafting a potential gamechanger in Day 2 / early Day 3.   Booker only has 2 years left on his cheap rookie deal (at which point you say goodbye), and D-Henderson is unproven.   Whether it's a Michel/Chubb/Penny, we'd probably regret not taking them as soon as midway this season, especially if we can get one at 3.8 (not likely Michel, doubt Chubb, but Penny is still a wild card where he goes, originally a Day 3 projection, then Rd 3 pre-Combine).

[thebestever6]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I think we're getting rid of Talib and CJ even if we don't get Cousins.   Because we need to rebuild the roster and not be so top-heavy in some positions, plus worried about age-related decline (Talib), or we have a very clear direction that we're going to draft another talent in an insanely deep pool (CJ & RB).    As much as CJ has been a warrior for us, this RB class is so insanely talented, it would be nuts for us to pass on drafting a potential gamechanger in Day 2 / early Day 3.   Booker only has 2 years left on his cheap rookie deal (at which point you say goodbye), and D-Henderson is unproven.   Whether it's a Michel/Chubb/Penny, we'd probably regret not taking them as soon as midway this season, especially if we can get one at 3.8 (not likely Michel, doubt Chubb, but Penny is still a wild card where he goes, originally a Day 3 projection, then Rd 3 pre-Combine).

Ok so Anderson and talib free up 14 mill. This leaves us at 38 million for Cousins and rookie contracts.

Bottom line, unless he goes for the guaranteed 4 year 100 million dollar contract. We aren't landing him without stripping this roster further.

[Broncofan]

17 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Ok so Anderson and talib free up 14 mill. This leaves us at 38 million for Cousins and rookie contracts.

Bottom line, unless he goes for the guaranteed 4 year 100 million dollar contract. We aren't landing him without stripping this roster further.

A Menelik Watson cut saves 4.6M, and a Siemian cut/trade saves 1.9M.   That's 44-45M.   And we can all agree our core isn't weakened at all with those 2.   As discussed before, Watson is still hurt, so Elway can't cut him now without risking a grievance - and that 4.5M savings can be had anytime up until Week 1, there's no roster bonus / etc. (besides 3.5M).    Committing 30M to Cousins is do-able - it's more how it leaves the rest of our roster building.  15M is enough for rookies and 1 mid-level FA signing - given our holes, do we really think it's good enough?   

On the flip side, if we clear 45M of cap space, and we go rookie QB, who wants to join us?   We certainly won't look like  an immediate contender.  Then we have to pay more to attract guys - and frankly, paying a lot in FA is not how long-term success is obtained.

I point the above out because there really are 2 sides to the argument, and they are equally valid IMO.  I'm still convinced Cousins isn't coming to us regardless, but I'd rather we clear the space - because our long-term health is better off without wasting $ (like we did with signings like JC last year).

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

A Menelik Watson cut saves 4.6M, and a Siemian cut/trade saves 1.9M.   That's 44-45M.   And we can all agree our core isn't weakened at all with those 2.   As discussed before, Watson is still hurt, so Elway can't cut him now without risking a grievance - and that 4.5M savings can be had anytime up until Week 1, there's no roster bonus / etc. (besides 3.5M).    Committing 30M to Cousins is do-able - it's more how it leaves the rest of our roster building.  15M is enough for rookies and 1 mid-level FA signing - given our holes, do we really think it's good enough?   

On the flip side, if we clear 45M of cap space, and we go rookie QB, who wants to join us?   We certainly won't look like  an immediate contender.  Then we have to pay more to attract guys - and frankly, paying a lot in FA is not how long-term success is obtained.

I point the above out because there really are 2 sides to the argument, and they are equally valid IMO.  I'm still convinced Cousins isn't coming to us regardless, but I'd rather we clear the space - because our long-term health is better off without wasting $ (like we did with signings like JC last year).

So what worse comes to worst money will roll over. As AAA stated out if we get a rookie qb and start him week 1 hes got to play all 16 games. A vet qb besides keemum gets us to 8 and 8. I think its possible the team gets to 6 and 10 but looks improved in a lot of areas. Lets face it even with Cousins year 1 the odds of making a huge run is small. And Elway is so good at bargain shopping in free agency. 

[thebestever6]

Think it's safe to say Miami has a bromance with Mayfield.

[Scoundrel]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Think it's safe to say Miami has a bromance with Mayfield.

Well we can just take him at 5 and erase all that

[thebestever6]

I think what gets me excited about qbs in this draft especially Allen and Mayfield is how much they improved little things in such a short time. Both are truly  students of the game and strive to be the best they can be. They're no longer student athletes so at 22 or 23 years old they have years to hone their skills in.

I can't recall a prospect that has improved footwork and accuracy in such a short time. It could be fools gold I have a feeling its not.

I feel like Denver has been mum on Allen since the second half of the senior bowl week and thats not coincidence. They saw him improving, and taking their coaching so they wanna keep it hush.  So teams ahead of them don't  charge them a kings ransom of a trade up. I think  the light came on for Allen.  I'd  like to see his wonderlic score.

Also Mayfield I think Denver is high on. The way he manipulates  a d and finds windows, and adjusts platforms to throw a good ball  is impressive.  Brees  mastered this Mayfield has the ability to do it as well.

John Elway Called Clevland in January to guage the costs of a trade up to 1 I don't think thats a coincidence. 

[FireVanceJoseph]

Elway and Kubiak still think Rosen is the best QB in the draft. They aren't looking to trade up for Baker so don't even start to get your hopes up. The QB of the Broncos next season will either be Cousins or Rosen.

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, FireVanceJoseph said:

Elway and Kubiak still think Rosen is the best QB in the draft. They aren't looking to trade up for Baker so don't even start to get your hopes up. The QB of the Broncos next season will either be Cousins or Rosen.

This could be true. But you read too much MHR. MHR is trash.

[FireVanceJoseph]

Just now, Counselor said:

This could be true. But you read too much MHR. MHR is trash.

MHR just reports what other people say. Baker will NOT be a Denver Bronco so stop the fascination with him right now.

[Scoundrel]

6 minutes ago, FireVanceJoseph said:

MHR just reports what other people say. Baker will NOT be a Denver Bronco so stop the fascination with him right now.

I can still be fascinated with him as a prospect no matter where he goes. Go back to reading MHR.

[PFM18]

I'm intrigued with this QB class. We have I would say 5-6 decent prospects coming through the draft this year and there isn't really one of them really standing out above the rest. Different people have varying opinions on who the best prospect is.

More convinced than ever now that we should and will be drafting one. Of course if Elway manages to use his arts of persuasion on Cousins and convinces him to come to Denver then of course  we'll be drafting elsewhere position wise but still think Kirk is more likely to go to Minnesota. 

I'm excited that we will likely be getting one of these prospects in Denver. I'm sure Elway has his favourites in mind and right now I wouldn't really mind who he selected but of course that may change as the draft path progresses.

Seen in some Mocks that people have Denver trading down from 5. Whilst I can understand it I wouldn't want us to and hope we stay with that pick .

[jolly red giant]

12 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

So what worse comes to worst money will roll over. As AAA stated out if we get a rookie qb and start him week 1 hes got to play all 16 games. A vet qb besides keemum gets us to 8 and 8. I think its possible the team gets to 6 and 10 but looks improved in a lot of areas. Lets face it even with Cousins year 1 the odds of making a huge run is small. And Elway is so good at bargain shopping in free agency. 

Here is the situation - and Broncosfan has alluded to it -

We have two choices -

1. Sign Cousins and draft to fill the roster

2. Draft a rookie QB and use FA to fill the roster

My preference is option 1 - and I think that is Elway's preference as well.

Here is why - you know what you get with Cousins - you know he will improve this team. You don't know what you get with a rookie - there are issues with all of them and they are well documented. If you miss on the rookie then you set the franchise back significantly - and - you waste another year of the defence. Second problem - this years FA players are not that good. After Cousins there is a major drop off in talent at QB - and the same applies at every position - indeed some positions have very poor talent available. There are an awful lot of very mediocre (and even poor) players who are going to be paid a lot of money for the talent that have - case in point - Keenum is being figured at $16-$17million a year. I think it would be significantly better to pay Cousins $30million than pay Keenum half of that. The draft is deep where we have holes - specifically the OL and RB - sign Cousins, trade down and take talent that have a far higher prospect of success. Hell - Elway could even panic the Jets in swapping places, get one of their second rounders and draft someone like Nelson - or - (this would be the best scenario) swap with the Jets and then trade down again if there was still a QB available with someone like the Bills and end up with 1.20, 1.21, 2.40, 2.49, 3.71, 3.96 and 3.99 - imagine the potential improvement you could make to the roster with 7 picks in the top 100.

Now - all of this comes to nothing if Elway cannot get Cousins - then he has to draft a rookie at 1.5 - or even worse - he has to trade up to get his QB. I am a little bit more optimistic this year because if we are drafting a QB then before because I think Kubiak will have a major say in who it is. Now here is the problem (worst case scenario) - if Elway does trade up then we could end up by taking a QB and then not having another pick until the third round. Now you have to - go to plan B - you have to surround the rookie with the best talent you can get and you will need continuity. You probably resign CJ (although I would expect Elway to say you got paid $9million for the last two years because I tried to low-ball you - but here is $2million for next year) - you probably resign Talib to a reduced contract (maybe $6million) if you can get away with that. Then you have to go out into FA and find a veteran back-up QB and at the very least find an OT, an OG, another WR, maybe a TE, coupled with some help on defence. Can you list players in FA that they Broncos would have to sign and then the cost (and the cost would be big). If you could get Nate Soldier (as AAA mocked) that would cost you maybe $13-£15million, If we lose out on Soldier and don't overpay for Robinson or Ijalana (if they actually hit FA) then we could be looking at the likes of - wait for it - Chris Clark or Donald Stephenson.  Same with the OG - there are a lot of run-of-the-mill OGs who are going to get paid - and the Broncos will have to pay them because we may not be able to draft one. Same problem with WRs - most FA WRs are average at best and will get overpaid. Now Elway is noted for getting vaule in FA - but that is when he is not desperate to fill gaping holes.

Then you come to next season - have Cousins at QB - have major upgrades from the draft - and you have the Broncos competitive in a weak AFC. Have a rookie at QB (and most rookie QBs struggle even when they don't have question marks) assuming that the rookie doesn't bust which could happen - have overpaid mediocre players on the OL and at other positions - and we could be back at 1.5 again next season - have the defence going past its sell-by date - and be facing a major rebuild with a new coaching staff (that Elway could mess up again) and we would begin to look like the Browns of the last decade.

Do you see where I am going with this - and I don't think its far-fetched. Getting Cousins is not only the key - it really is the only option that gives the Broncos a realistic chance of being competitive for the next five years. It is possible a rookie QB could become a blue-chip player - it is possible that Elway can get the right pieces in FA and draft a couple of studs - it is possible the defence is kept playing at a high standard.

I like Plan A - I think Plan B contains far too many variables and is way too risky. We may have no choice - but I expect Elway to do what ever is humanly possible to implement Plan A. 

[jolly red giant]

1 hour ago, PFM18 said:

More convinced than ever now that we should and will be drafting one. Of course if Elway manages to use his arts of persuasion on Cousins and convinces him to come to Denver then of course  we'll be drafting elsewhere position wise but still think Kirk is more likely to go to Minnesota. 

Minnesota is the obvious choice - but the Vikings have a problem - they have cap space this year - but they have 5 of their top players needing extensions next year. If they sign Cousins they face the prospect of being in cap hell and seeing some of their players walk. That is why there is talk of a low offer to Cousins in the hope that he will accept and go to win the SB. But the Vikings are also taking a big risk - if they lose out on Cousins and Keenum walks (because he is p*ssed with them and will get paid elsewhere)  then they face a problem at QB. In terms of the QB position the Vikings are in as (if not more) difficult situation as the Broncos - except in a different way and without a Pan B if they lose Keenum as well.