2018 College Prospect Thread

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Well, if we decide to draft best QB available instead of BPA I could see that. It's just incredibly overvalued IMO.

You know I am a huge overall BPA proponent.   But QB is so important and the salary savings if you can find that franchise guy, well, much like you argued for the positional value with LT over others last year, I do concede for QB it has to factor in ( though it does not overcome passing up an elite player if you aren't a top guy at that premium position, and that's still a fair risk with the QB's).   I do think 2 guys are franchise-ceiling and high-floor (league-average worst case barring injury) that I would be happy if we got them - Rosen & Darnold.   Allen has a bust floor, and even though his ceiling is the highest, his biggest flaw is also the least correctable.    I fear Elway is mesmerized by the ceiling, however - it is his known MO when he fails, sadly enough. 

FWIW, I love Edmunds, so your call on him is spot-on....but Elway's likely going in a different direction.  Let's face it, he's pretty transparent about his goals, even if we don't know which specific guy he's locked on to yet...sure looks like rookie 1.5 QB if we don't land Cousins (and I don't think we will).

[thebestever6]

9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

You know I am a huge overall BPA proponent.   But QB is so important and the salary savings if you can find that franchise guy, well, much like you argued for the positional value with LT over others last year, I do concede for QB it has to factor in ( though it does not overcome passing up an elite player if you aren't a top guy at that premium position, and that's still a fair risk with the QB's).   I do think 2 guys are franchise-ceiling and high-floor (league-average worst case barring injury) that I would be happy if we got them - Rosen & Darnold.   Allen has a bust floor, and even though his ceiling is the highest, his biggest flaw is also the least correctable.    I fear Elway is mesmerized by the ceiling, however - it is his known MO when he fails, sadly enough. 

FWIW, I love Edmunds, so your call on him is spot-on....but Elway's likely going in a different direction.  Let's face it, he's pretty transparent about his goals, even if we don't know which specific guy he's locked on to yet...sure looks like rookie 1.5 QB if we don't land Cousins (and I don't think we will).

Elway doesn't value the lb position.  Although I think hes high on Shakeem Griffin.

No matter what Elway does this forum and the fan base won't be unanimous.  Hell I can see AAA now making a we got Keenum the sky is falling.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Elway doesn't value the lb position.  Although I think hes high on Shakeem Griffin.

No matter what Elway does this forum and the fan base won't be unanimous.  Hell I can see AAA now making a we got Keenum the sky is falling.

If we got Keenum at the market rate he's going to require....I suspect the reaction would be unanimous.  @AnAngryAmerican would have a lot of company, and rightfully so.   Unanimity isn't the point - there are some moves that are obviously bad....that would be one of them, given the resource commitment to a guy nowhere near franchise caliber.

Frankly, Elway going rookie QB is probably going to be one decision most fans will get behind once Cousins is off the board - there's more disagreement about who we take, but that's not clear to anyone (and out of Elway's hands too).

[thebestever6]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

If we got Keenum at the market rate he's going to require....I suspect the reaction would be unanimous.  @AnAngryAmerican would have a lot of company, and rightfully so.

Yea you're right. And Vance is still the coach. He also doesn't have the weapons he had in minn. Or 3rd down defense minn was amazing.

[AKRNA]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

You know I am a huge overall BPA proponent.   But QB is so important and the salary savings if you can find that franchise guy, well, much like you argued for the positional value with LT over others last year, I do concede for QB it has to factor in ( though it does not overcome passing up an elite player if you aren't a top guy at that premium position, and that's still a fair risk with the QB's).   I do think 2 guys are franchise-ceiling and high-floor (league-average worst case barring injury) that I would be happy if we got them - Rosen & Darnold.   Allen has a bust floor, and even though his ceiling is the highest, his biggest flaw is also the least correctable.    I fear Elway is mesmerized by the ceiling, however - it is his known MO when he fails, sadly enough. 

FWIW, I love Edmunds, so your call on him is spot-on....but Elway's likely going in a different direction.  Let's face it, he's pretty transparent about his goals, even if we don't know which specific guy he's locked on to yet...sure looks like rookie 1.5 QB if we don't land Cousins (and I don't think we will).

Maybe, but could be just trying to raise the price of the 5th pick. It's a huge gamble to take a flyer on a QB when perennial all-pros are available at that spot.

[broncos67]

7 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Maybe, but could be just trying to raise the price of the 5th pick. It's a huge gamble to take a flyer on a QB when perennial all-pros are available at that spot.

I respect the hell out of you AK, but I cannot agree with this line of thinking in any way. Quarterback is the single most important position in any sport. Can you win without great QB play? Yes, but it's far outside the norm. Most SBs have been won by teams with elite QB play, and most teams who contend have elite QBs. It's just the way it is. Look at Dallas- they have a ridiculous OL, but they aren't by most estimates, a contender in the NFC at this point.

The position value also needs to be considered at 5. I love Quenton Nelson, but I wouldn't take him over a QB prospect. A guard won't win you titles, a QB will. If we already had our QB, I'd take him, but absent a capable starter, we need to take the risk. Landing, say, Rosen and Hernandez, or Rosen and Price, is a better long term outcome than Nelson and someone else, IMO

[germ-x]

6 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I respect the hell out of you AK, but I cannot agree with this line of thinking in any way. Quarterback is the single most important position in any sport. Can you win without great QB play? Yes, but it's far outside the norm. Most SBs have been won by teams with elite QB play, and most teams who contend have elite QBs. It's just the way it is. Look at Dallas- they have a ridiculous OL, but they aren't by most estimates, a contender in the NFC at this point.

The position value also needs to be considered at 5. I love Quenton Nelson, but I wouldn't take him over a QB prospect. A guard won't win you titles, a QB will. If we already had our QB, I'd take him, but absent a capable starter, we need to take the risk. Landing, say, Rosen and Hernandez, or Rosen and Price, is a better long term outcome than Nelson and someone else, IMO

Agreed.  My stance on it is if Elway sees a future franchise QB sitting there at #5 it’s a no brainer pick.  If he doesn’t think a QB at #5 is that guy then draft Nelson, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, or Chubb if he’s there.

[thebestever6]

44 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Agreed.  My stance on it is if Elway sees a future franchise QB sitting there at #5 it’s a no brainer pick.  If he doesn’t think a QB at #5 is that guy then draft Nelson, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, or Chubb if he’s there.

This is fair. I don't want Elway putting lipstick on a pig.

[AnAngryAmerican]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

If we got Keenum at the market rate he's going to require....I suspect the reaction would be unanimous.  @AnAngryAmerican would have a lot of company, and rightfully so.   Unanimity isn't the point - there are some moves that are obviously bad....that would be one of them, given the resource commitment to a guy nowhere near franchise caliber.

Frankly, Elway going rookie QB is probably going to be one decision most fans will get behind once Cousins is off the board - there's more disagreement about who we take, but that's not clear to anyone (and out of Elway's hands too).

Yeah I think there would be unanimity that it's a terrible decision to make a two- to four-year commitment to Keenum at or near $20m AAV. 

And if we go for a rookie I could live with it, to varying to degrees; of the top 5 - Rosen, Allen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson - I would be happy with any of the first three, with Rosen my top choice, but the latter two I would be highly skeptical. 

[bMiller031]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

Agreed.  My stance on it is if Elway sees a future franchise QB sitting there at #5 it’s a no brainer pick.  If he doesn’t think a QB at #5 is that guy then draft Nelson, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, or Chubb if he’s there.

If we don't go QB at 1.5, I think the move is to trade back. There are far too many QB needy teams in a top-heavy QB draft to not maximize the value of the pick by trading it. 

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

I respect the hell out of you AK, but I cannot agree with this line of thinking in any way. Quarterback is the single most important position in any sport. Can you win without great QB play? Yes, but it's far outside the norm. Most SBs have been won by teams with elite QB play, and most teams who contend have elite QBs. It's just the way it is. Look at Dallas- they have a ridiculous OL, but they aren't by most estimates, a contender in the NFC at this point.

The position value also needs to be considered at 5. I love Quenton Nelson, but I wouldn't take him over a QB prospect. A guard won't win you titles, a QB will. If we already had our QB, I'd take him, but absent a capable starter, we need to take the risk. Landing, say, Rosen and Hernandez, or Rosen and Price, is a better long term outcome than Nelson and someone else, IMO

The problem I've got with it are the overall "Big Board" ratings of the QB's. Outside of the commercial "Big Boards" (SI, ESPN, etc) many only have one QB listed in the top 10. Even NFL.com only has one QB, Darnold in the top 5 with Rosen at #17.

Also, we've got an awful environment to bring in a Rookie QB to start. Terrible track record at developing QB's also.

We're in a position to really make a positive impact with our #5 pick. @bMiller031 has my favorite idea. Trade down with a QB desperate team and gain another premium draft pick.

If these QB's were "can't miss" type prospects I'd agree with you. Problem is, they're not.

[jsthomp2007]

6 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

The problem I've got with it are the overall "Big Board" ratings of the QB's. Outside of the commercial "Big Boards" (SI, ESPN, etc) many only have one QB listed in the top 10. Even NFL.com only has one QB, Darnold in the top 5 with Rosen at #17.

Also, we've got an awful environment to bring in a Rookie QB to start. Terrible track record at developing QB's also.

We're in a position to really make a positive impact with our #5 pick. @bMiller031 has my favorite idea. Trade down with a QB desperate team and gain another premium draft pick.

If these QB's were "can't miss" type prospects I'd agree with you. Problem is, they're not.

I mean, if Bradley Chubb is available at #5..how do you not add him to the DL?  Between him, Von, Wolfe, Ray, and Shaq...that is formidable...BUT, at #5...I'd have to assume Nelson is there and I would expect that to be the pick...But, the Colts may see the value of Nelson.  

 

There is always the prospect of getting a middle tier QB (hell keep Os) and build a superior defense and running game...we know that formula works...you could do it that way till you get the QB you want. 

[jsthomp2007]

Best mock here 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000917695/article/fourround-mock-draft-allen-goes-no-1-bills-cardinals-trade-up

 

Would love this...keep Os...sign Keenum...let Chad Kelly see what he can do...

[broncos67]

32 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Best mock here 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000917695/article/fourround-mock-draft-allen-goes-no-1-bills-cardinals-trade-up

 

Would love this...keep Os...sign Keenum...let Chad Kelly see what he can do...

Wouldn't be awful depending on what we address, but no to Christian Kirk. I'm all aboard the DJ Moore train. He is the best WR in this draft (and a Terp).

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

The problem I've got with it are the overall "Big Board" ratings of the QB's. Outside of the commercial "Big Boards" (SI, ESPN, etc) many only have one QB listed in the top 10. Even NFL.com only has one QB, Darnold in the top 5 with Rosen at #17.

Also, we've got an awful environment to bring in a Rookie QB to start. Terrible track record at developing QB's also.

We're in a position to really make a positive impact with our #5 pick. @bMiller031 has my favorite idea. Trade down with a QB desperate team and gain another premium draft pick.

If these QB's were "can't miss" type prospects I'd agree with you. Problem is, they're not.

Rosen is getting dinged for really, really iffy off-the-field "character" concerns, and for his frame and concussion risk.   

I can accept there's risk with concussions - the character concerns seem wildly overblown (same with any about Darnold's makeup, FWIW - and frankly any concerns about Allen's makeup are hogwash, too - makeup isn't his problem, it's his physical flaws with accuracy and anticipation/awareness).   He's a guy who's not afraid to speak his mind on controversial issues, but does so intelligently, and with thought.  His takes don't come off like an entitled, selfish me-first guy.   They're just not comments that are going to fly under the radar.

Let's recap:

1.  Political comments about Trump in 2016.  Politics discussion is off-limits here, but we can at least say it's not like he's alone, whether you agree with his beliefs or not - many players have taken a similar stance.

2.  Posted about the ridiculous double standard of college athletes being "amateurs" in 2016 - after UCLA secured a 15-year, 280M deal with Under Armour - his comments:

Quote

"We're still amateurs though ... Gotta love non-profits #NCAA."

3.  And then his comments in 2017, about the hypocrisy of the college football student/athlete model:

Quote

“Look, football and school don’t go together,” he said. “They just don’t. Trying to do both is like trying to do two full-time jobs. There are guys who have no business being in school, but they’re here because this is the path to the NFL. There’s no other way. Then there’s the other side that says raise the SAT eligibility requirements. OK, raise the SAT requirement at Alabama and see what kind of team they have. You lose athletes and then the product on the field suffers.”

 

(For context, the University of Alabama has won the college football championship four times in the past eight years.) “It’s not that they shouldn’t be in school,” he continued. “Human beings don’t belong in school with our schedules. No one in their right mind should have a football player’s schedule, and go to school. It’s not that some players shouldn’t be in school; it’s just that universities should help them more — instead of just finding ways to keep them eligible.”

 

4.  Now, he also committed the egregious mistake of posting a pic of him in a portable hot tub in his dorm room with a coed student as a freshman on Instagram.  Crass?  Maybe.   Out of line, no.   Also...when he was 18.   Out of all the dumb stuff an 18 year-old can do, this is nothing - but it gets halo'd in with his comments.

Honestly, this forms the major basis behind his off-the-field concerns.   This is not a guy who's just an idiot.  He's making some very intelligent, perceptive, and well-thought arguments.  They just don't happen to be popular - even if they are 100 percent accurate in portraying athletics today.   More importantly, Rosen's teammates don't throw shade or fail to support him (like with Connor Cook).   And it's never affected his on-the-field play.     THIS is the type of off-the-field concern I love to take advantage of - this isn't some selfish, reckless, irresponsible kid who has a complete disregard for the rules (see: Antonio Calloway) or sense of entitlement that he's above the law.   This is a guy who's intelligent and speaks thoughtfully - just that the takes aren't going to be unanimously accepted.    That's fine with me - as long as he knows not to make them instead of focusing on games (and note, these comments were in the offseason - not game weeks).   All of the comments made - from April to early August.   I've seen nothing that suggests he's a distraction, the timing suggests he's not afraid to speak up...but also knows the games come first (none of the above happened the week before games).

Witness the latest support from his teammates (and the same was reported last year):

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000918506/article/exucla-teammate-calls-josh-rosen-onceinamillennium-qb

I really hope Rosen's stock falls.  To me, Darnold and Rosen are as safe as top-of-the-draft QB's can be nowadays.  The spread system, and the imbalance in elite teams recruiting, makes it impossible to get an Andrew Luck anymore - the shoo-in.   We are left with the Winston/Mariota tier of QB's - and I'd be willing to put those 2 at, or just below there.   Allen's floor really is pure bust (while he has the highest ceiling for sure, but then we'd have to be the ones developing him, which is a very legit concern).   That's why I'm really only happy if we get Darnold/Rosen - but the more the Draft process goes, the more it seems like it's very possible.

If we get Rosen/Darnold, I for one will never second-guess the call.   You know how I felt about taking Bolles over Foster, or trading back and taking Ramczyk - it's year 2, and the book's not written there by any means, we've got 3 more years of rookie cheap years (and a 5th year option) to see if that was the right call.   But in as much as I thought Elway should go away from need there, I do see Rosen and Darnold as being franchise-qb ceilings, but also with safe floors that won't completely bust out.   Given how much $ savings that can present, and the ceiling of play available, I do consider them both top-5 talents - when you factor in the impact QB's have.   I would say Barkley/Nelson are my top 2 non-QB's, although Chubb has done a nice job to bridge the gap.   But I can justify Darnold/Rosen for sure.