2018 College Prospect Thread

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

The problem I've got with it are the overall "Big Board" ratings of the QB's. Outside of the commercial "Big Boards" (SI, ESPN, etc) many only have one QB listed in the top 10. Even NFL.com only has one QB, Darnold in the top 5 with Rosen at #17.

Also, we've got an awful environment to bring in a Rookie QB to start. Terrible track record at developing QB's also.

We're in a position to really make a positive impact with our #5 pick. @bMiller031 has my favorite idea. Trade down with a QB desperate team and gain another premium draft pick.

If these QB's were "can't miss" type prospects I'd agree with you. Problem is, they're not.

I agree with Ben. We need a QB. Plain and simple. We tried to get by with Trevor Siemian, didn't work. We drafted Paxton Lynch, who was a roll of the dice, it didn't work. We're not going anywhere until we have a real QB.

We have to either sign a bonafide, difference-making starter (and the only one that fits that description is Kirk Cousins) or do our best to evaluate the rookies, maybe make a trade up if we have to, and get our guy in the draft. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

The problem I've got with it are the overall "Big Board" ratings of the QB's. Outside of the commercial "Big Boards" (SI, ESPN, etc) many only have one QB listed in the top 10. Even NFL.com only has one QB, Darnold in the top 5 with Rosen at #17.

Also, we've got an awful environment to bring in a Rookie QB to start. Terrible track record at developing QB's also.

We're in a position to really make a positive impact with our #5 pick. @bMiller031 has my favorite idea. Trade down with a QB desperate team and gain another premium draft pick.

If these QB's were "can't miss" type prospects I'd agree with you. Problem is, they're not.

I agree with Ben. We need a QB. Plain and simple. We tried to get by with Trevor Siemian, didn't work. We drafted Paxton Lynch, who was a roll of the dice, it didn't work. We're not going anywhere until we have a real QB.

We have to either sign a bonafide, difference-making starter (and the only one that fits that description is Kirk Cousins) or do our best to evaluate the rookies, maybe make a trade up if we have to, and get our guy in the draft. 

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Rosen is getting dinged for really, really iffy off-the-field "character" concerns, and for his frame and concussion risk.   

I can accept there's risk with concussions - the character concerns seem wildly overblown (same with any about Darnold's makeup, FWIW - and frankly any concerns about Allen's makeup are hogwash, too - makeup isn't his problem, it's his physical flaws with accuracy and anticipation/awareness).   He's a guy who's not afraid to speak his mind on controversial issues, but does so intelligently, and with thought.  His takes don't come off like an entitled, selfish me-first guy.   They're just not comments that are going to fly under the radar.

Let's recap:

1.  Political comments about Trump in 2016.  Politics discussion is off-limits here, but we can at least say it's not like he's alone, whether you agree with his beliefs or not - many players have taken a similar stance.

2.  Posted about the ridiculous double standard of college athletes being "amateurs" in 2016 - after UCLA secured a 15-year, 280M deal with Under Armour - his comments:

3.  And then his comments in 2017, about the hypocrisy of the college football student/athlete model:

4.  Now, he also committed the egregious mistake of posting a pic of him in a portable hot tub in his dorm room with a coed student as a freshman on Instagram.  Crass?  Maybe.   Out of line, no.   Also...when he was 18.   Out of all the dumb stuff an 18 year-old can do, this is nothing - but it gets halo'd in with his comments.

Honestly, this forms the major basis behind his off-the-field concerns.   This is not a guy who's just an idiot.  He's making some very intelligent, perceptive, and well-thought arguments.  They just don't happen to be popular - even if they are 100 percent accurate in portraying athletics today.   More importantly, Rosen's teammates don't throw shade or fail to support him (like with Connor Cook).   And it's never affected his on-the-field play.     THIS is the type of off-the-field concern I love to take advantage of - this isn't some selfish, reckless, irresponsible kid who has a complete disregard for the rules (see: Antonio Calloway) or sense of entitlement that he's above the law.   This is a guy who's intelligent and speaks thoughtfully - just that the takes aren't going to be unanimously accepted.    That's fine with me - as long as he knows not to make them instead of focusing on games (and note, these comments were in the offseason - not game weeks).   All of the comments made - from April to early August.   I've seen nothing that suggests he's a distraction, the timing suggests he's not afraid to speak up...but also knows the games come first (none of the above happened the week before games).

Witness the latest support from his teammates (and the same was reported last year):

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000918506/article/exucla-teammate-calls-josh-rosen-onceinamillennium-qb

I really hope Rosen's stock falls.  To me, Darnold and Rosen are as safe as top-of-the-draft QB's can be nowadays.  The spread system, and the imbalance in elite teams recruiting, makes it impossible to get an Andrew Luck anymore - the shoo-in.   We are left with the Winston/Mariota tier of QB's - and I'd be willing to put those 2 at, or just below there.   Allen's floor really is pure bust (while he has the highest ceiling for sure, but then we'd have to be the ones developing him, which is a very legit concern).   That's why I'm really only happy if we get Darnold/Rosen - but the more the Draft process goes, the more it seems like it's very possible.

If we get Rosen/Darnold, I for one will never second-guess the call.   You know how I felt about taking Bolles over Foster, or trading back and taking Ramczyk - it's year 2, and the book's not written there by any means, we've got 3 more years of rookie cheap years (and a 5th year option) to see if that was the right call.   But in as much as I thought Elway should go away from need there, I do see Rosen and Darnold as being franchise-qb ceilings, but also with safe floors that won't completely bust out.   Given how much $ savings that can present, and the ceiling of play available, I do consider them both top-5 talents - when you factor in the impact QB's have.   I would say Barkley/Nelson are my top 2 non-QB's, although Chubb has done a nice job to bridge the gap.   But I can justify Darnold/Rosen for sure.

You lost me when you went "politics", sorry.

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

You lost me when you went "politics", sorry.

Skip that line, and read on.  It's worth it if you aren't sold on Rosen, lol.

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

If we get Rosen/Darnold, I for one will never second-guess the call.   You know how I felt about taking Bolles over Foster, or trading back and taking Ramczyk - it's year 2, and the book's not written there by any means, we've got 3 more years of rookie cheap years (and a 5th year option) to see if that was the right call.   But in as much as I thought Elway should go away from need there, I do see Rosen and Darnold as being franchise-qb ceilings, but also with safe floors that won't completely bust out.   Given how much $ savings that can present, and the ceiling of play available, I do consider them both top-5 talents - when you factor in the impact QB's have.   I would say Barkley/Nelson are my top 2 non-QB's, although Chubb has done a nice job to bridge the gap.   But I can justify Darnold/Rosen for sure.

I agree with the bolded especially and I made that same point in my opening posts in the Broncos QB Discussion thread - that both Rosen and Darnold have high ceilings but also relatively low floors while Allen and Mayfield (plus Jackson and Rudolph) have bust floors, even if as-high if not higher (in the case of Alllen) ceilings. 

[broncos67]

40 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Skip that line, and read on.  It's worth it if you aren't sold on Rosen, lol.

You're not wrong. People hate Rosen because he's not a robot giving answers that are just "I LOVE FOOTBALL." If a team dings him for that, fine, but in the social media era, I think it's fans who need to start adapting to what players are or aren't and learn to live with it. Or just understand that players are human beings and not crash test dummies, who have life experiences and care about laws and social issues just like a lot of people do.

Anyway, if people want to lambast Rosen for that, fine. He can come to Denver.

[champ11]

34 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

You're not wrong. People hate Rosen because he's not a robot giving answers that are just "I LOVE FOOTBALL." If a team dings him for that, fine, but in the social media era, I think it's fans who need to start adapting to what players are or aren't and learn to live with it. Or just understand that players are human beings and not crash test dummies, who have life experiences and care about laws and social issues just like a lot of people do.

Anyway, if people want to lambast Rosen for that, fine. He can come to Denver.

Preach. The processes of these teams are so laughably and shockingly outdated and dumb

 

 

[paul-mac]

So with the Talib trade we now have two 3rds, two 4ths and three 5ths as well as our normal 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th. That’s 11

picks and I don’t think we have 11 spots on our 53 at this point so I really see Elway being aggressive and moving up at some point. I’m not saying it’ll be from 5 but I could definitely see the early 2nd rounder becoming a late 1st. 

[thebestever6]

2 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

So with the Talib trade we now have two 3rds, two 4ths and three 5ths as well as our normal 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th. That’s 11

picks and I don’t think we have 11 spots on our 53 at this point so I really see Elway being aggressive and moving up at some point. I’m not saying it’ll be from 5 but I could definitely see the early 2nd rounder becoming a late 1st. 

I could see him having two seconds he likes the cb from colorado and hernandez.

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

So with the Talib trade we now have two 3rds, two 4ths and three 5ths as well as our normal 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th. That’s 11

picks and I don’t think we have 11 spots on our 53 at this point so I really see Elway being aggressive and moving up at some point. I’m not saying it’ll be from 5 but I could definitely see the early 2nd rounder becoming a late 1st. 

I think we will move up - but I don't think we're nearly as talented as in past year.   I could see us keeping 9 guys on our 53-man roster from this draft.  I think the sweet spot is to move from 3.8 to late 2nd, and from 3.99 to mid-3rd.  There's a lot of talent this year, and we don't have to necessarily worry about positional need - we need everything except S and QB (after we get one on Day 1, I'd assume).  

[jsthomp2007]

10 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I think we will move up - but I don't think we're nearly as talented as in past year.   I could see us keeping 9 guys on our 53-man roster from this draft.  I think the sweet spot is to move from 3.8 to late 2nd, and from 3.99 to mid-3rd.  There's a lot of talent this year, and we don't have to necessarily worry about positional need - we need everything except S and QB (after we get one on Day 1, I'd assume).  

Unless, the Broncos are set with Pax, Chad Kelly, and a vet.  If they view the current crop of QBs as mediocre with some upside...wouldn't that have been Chad Kelly if he had not been hurt and had the off the field issues?  I think unless the QB is going to be almost a no brainer at 5th overall...I think we beef up the trenches...either Nelson or Chubb (who ever the Colts pass on).  Also, with that thought...is their fire power to trade up for Saquon and you build around him.  

[AKRNA]

29 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I could see him having two seconds he likes the cb from colorado and hernandez.

Hernandez won't make it out of the 1st rd.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Unless, the Broncos are set with Pax, Chad Kelly, and a vet.  If they view the current crop of QBs as mediocre with some upside...wouldn't that have been Chad Kelly if he had not been hurt and had the off the field issues?  I think unless the QB is going to be almost a no brainer at 5th overall...I think we beef up the trenches...either Nelson or Chubb (who ever the Colts pass on).  Also, with that thought...is their fire power to trade up for Saquon and you build around him.  

Elway is as safe as it gets, but there is no way on God's green earth we will not upgrade QB.  Watching an entire season of Siemian/Lynch/Oz should be enough to convince anyone...let alone Elway.   Elway's not perfect, but he's also very transparent...and he's locked into QB.  With Cousins likely going elsewhere (money's still on MIN...literally, 8-1 odds lol), pretty clear he's locked into a rookie.

Re: trading up, we don't have enough 2018 pick value to trade up more than from 1.5 to 1.3 (would cost us 2.7 and a 2019 3rd at a minimum, factoring in the extra cost with all the teams wanting to move up).  I seriously doubt that's enough to get Barkley, and if we do that, it's to get the QB Elway wants.   I think it's less likely he even considers that - the key is who he wants in his top 3.  If they aren't there at 1.5, though...I could see Nelson or Chubb, but that seems less likely, if IND gets shut out on Barkley, I think they are going Chubb at 1.3.

[jsthomp2007]

31 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Elway is as safe as it gets, but there is no way on God's green earth we will not upgrade QB.  Watching an entire season of Siemian/Lynch/Oz should be enough to convince anyone...let alone Elway.   Elway's not perfect, but he's also very transparent...and he's locked into QB.  With Cousins likely going elsewhere (money's still on MIN...literally, 8-1 odds lol), pretty clear he's locked into a rookie.

Re: trading up, we don't have enough 2018 pick value to trade up more than from 1.5 to 1.3 (would cost us 2.7 and a 2019 3rd at a minimum, factoring in the extra cost with all the teams wanting to move up).  I seriously doubt that's enough to get Barkley, and if we do that, it's to get the QB Elway wants.   I think it's less likely he even considers that - the key is who he wants in his top 3.  If they aren't there at 1.5, though...I could see Nelson or Chubb, but that seems less likely, if IND gets shut out on Barkley, I think they are going Chubb at 1.3.

Which leaves Nelson and that is as safe a pick that you can get...not saying he will be an All-Pro...but could be.  Right now, that would be easier to predict than which QB will even make a few Pro Bowls. 

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Hernandez won't make it out of the 1st rd.

I'd love to trade up for him even if it was a future high pick. Hell I'd even buy a contract for a second rounder like the browns.  Could you see Miami giving Tannehill and a second for like a 5th? We could absorb that contract or even Suh?