Raiders Offense Thread 2.0:

[drfrey13]

On 5/16/2020 at 6:44 PM, Frankie2Gunz said:

You would have to figure that with all of the added fire power we have Wallers volume will certainly decrease.  He had a productive season last year but was our only serious and consistent receiving weapon all season.  Carr had to utilize the TE more than he wanted the last few seasons because our WR's were so terrible.  A decrease in volume for Waller would be a good thing because that means the other WR weapons are stepping up and doing their job. 

Your description of Ruggs sounds similar to the impact we were expecting AB to have if Ruggs can pan out.  If Ruggs can have an impact like you describe, having a safety move over to cover him will open up the O we will see some very good things from our O this season,.  Our O will be well balanced, versatile and will look the best it has since the Gannon days. 

I think Wallers targets stay over 100 but we see a reduced role of the RBs out of the backfield.  We had 98 targets to RBs last year which was low for Carr but I think we get away from that if we can open up the field.  I also think Jacobs rush attempts go up with Washington gone and Richard sees a diminished role.

[Rolni]

17 hours ago, NYRaider said:

But not just that, Ruggs gets hit with the speed/deep threat label like that's all he can do. During his last two seasons at Alabama he was targeted more on screens and slants than go-routes. He was also targeted nearly as much on in-routes and crossing routes as he was on go routes. Carr is at his best in the short and intermediate parts of the field. Ruggs only had 1 drop on 103 catchable targets during his sophomore and junior seasons and was one of only three WR's in the class to average 10+ yards after the catch along with CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk. 

The speed element that he adds to take the top off of the defense will be extremely valuable. But I think he'll do his best work for us on slants, screens, crossing routes, end arounds, etc. with an ocassional deep shot. On that slant he took to the house against South Carolina last season he was recorded at a top speed of 24 MPH which would've broken Tyreek Hill's NFL record by almost 2 MPH. 

If he reaches his potential I think he'll be a Brandin Cooks type of player. Someone that can consistently put up 70+ catches and 1,100+ yards. 

I recently heard a podcast interview with T.Kelce and he said that T.Hill's speed is what elevates the Chiefs offense. Obviously Pat is a stud and all...

I think that is the logic behind the Ruggs pick. We already had Waller, Williams and Renfrow and we needed that speed element most to really elevate the hole group. 

Then if someone actually check Ruggs play he will see, what you said. He can be a really good get for Carr with his experience on slants and crossing routes and with his sure hands. Then he will run go's for sure to strech the D...

Williams and Ruggs are 2 guys, who can really get down, so the opposing Ss will have to really stay deep IMO, that will really open it up for Waller, Moreau, Renfrow, Bowden, Richard, JJ...

Carr and Gruden will have to put some long bombs into the playbook and really use them to be effective, but last year, when Williams was healthy he and Waller had some deep grabs from Carr, so I have some confident in this plan.

 

[jimkelly02]

One thing I noticed about Ruggs was hes not that great at tracking the deep ball, although some of that may be due to poor passes from Tua.  Tua often didn’t hit him in stride and Ruggs had to slow down for the ball. 

[Rolni]

51 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

One thing I noticed about Ruggs was hes not that great at tracking the deep ball, although some of that may be due to poor passes from Tua.  Tua often didn’t hit him in stride and Ruggs had to slow down for the ball. 

That could be an issue with Carr too IMO.

[agarcia34]

Josh Jacobs regular season prop

Rushing Yards: J Jacobs 1149.5

Jacobs should smash this with a couple of weeks to spare. The only thing stopping him from hitting it is he suffers a massive injury.

Derek Carr's regular-season prop

Gross Passing Yards: D Carr 3099.5

Both seem incredibly low

Can't wait for Vegas to open back up and take a visit to Westgate 

[MrOaktown_56]

On 4/16/2020 at 5:05 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

As much as I like Lamb, I can see really good cases for why him Ruggs and Jeudy all fit in this offense. You can ask them to do different things and "fill" different roles. I'm biased toward lamb because I like high volume WRs with physicality and hands, but Jeudy has a well rounded skillset and is smooth & explosive, and Ruggs' weaknesses can be protected by scheme early on. 

Ruggs is the biggest case of scheme fit where if you use him "right" he could boom the biggest, but if you don't play to his strengths, he can be easily overshadowed. Ruggs is the guy I can see the staff maybe taking over lamb because they might say:

-get the guy the ball on jet sweeps to test teams ability to play sideline to sideline (which also spreads defenders in the box, making inside running easier for Jacobs

-get the guy tons of screens and slants to get him the ball and watch him pull away

-throw a few deep bombs his way (every game) via play action

-he will open up the run game for Jacobs and prevent teams from bracketing Waller, who will then become the "#1 volume target" much like Kelce has done for KC

-he will open up the underneath pass game, making our RBs and Renfrow even easier completions/yards

-in turn Ruggs will be the "lower volume" receiver on traditional pass plays, but every other play will be a big one and you'll always have the option to scheme him touches

Ruggs value as a "#1" would come from his ability to change the way defenses play us or pay the price.

I still prefer Lamb in a vacuum, but I would understand why we might do it.

From before the draft on Ruggs. I still believe all of this stuff is true.

[Bitty 2.0]

12 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

From before the draft on Ruggs. I still believe all of this stuff is true.

Accept I think he'll be a high volume receiver because of all the bubble screens and slants he's gonna get.

[MrOaktown_56]

12 hours ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

Accept I think he'll be a high volume receiver because of all the bubble screens and slants he's gonna get.

Depends honestly. Are they going to use the **** out of him?

I hope so because why else would you draft him over Jeudy and Lamb unless you have a plan.

Ruggs has the highest upside if he is schemed correctly.

[jimkelly02]

On 5/19/2020 at 12:59 AM, Rolni said:

That could be an issue with Carr too IMO.

Carr is way better at deep balls then Tua.  I saw plenty of Tua’s passes that Ruggs had to stop and turn around to catch.... and They were the equivalent of pop flys.

Carr’s deep ball can have a little bit too much air under it on occasion, but that’s almost beneficial for a guy like Ruggs who has the speed to run under then.... it’s an issue when the timing is off and the loft is THAT bad as Tua’s.

[jimkelly02]

17 hours ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

Accept I think he'll be a high volume receiver because of all the bubble screens and slants he's gonna get.

Maybe in time he does.... but for the first 2 years he won’t be a high volume target.  When we say high volume we’re talking roughly 130 or more targets a year.  Maybe even 120 targets which is good for top 20 (we’ll top 17 WR as McCaffrey, Kelce, and Ertz are included).  
 

Ruggs, even with the manufactured screens and slants will absolutely not touch near 130+ his rookie or sophomore year.

In comparison, in ‘19 Waller has 117 targets and Renfrow had 71. Even if you take T.William’s first 5 games he had only 30 targets... an average of 6.0 tgt/game.... which over 16 games is 96 targets.

Best case scenario as to your talking Ruggs gets 80-100 targets his rookie year.

This offense is based upon spreading the ball around too much to have Ruggs as a high volume WR.  That may be one reason why we drafted him over Lamb/Jeudy.... we didn’t mind he’s isn’t a high volume type of WR initially and prefer his speed to test defenses deep and screen+slant with YaC game.

If you want to look at target stats go here and tap the “TGT” at the top to sort by targets high to low.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/receiving.htm

[jimkelly02]

On 5/19/2020 at 8:02 AM, agarcia34 said:

Josh Jacobs regular season prop

Rushing Yards: J Jacobs 1149.5

Jacobs should smash this with a couple of weeks to spare. The only thing stopping him from hitting it is he suffers a massive injury.

Derek Carr's regular-season prop

Gross Passing Yards: D Carr 3099.5

Both seem incredibly low

Can't wait for Vegas to open back up and take a visit to Westgate 

I’d take the over on both.... Jacobs has 1150 in 13 games last year.

3100 yards for Carr has be they don’t believe he’ll start 15/16 games.  He’s had 4000+ the last 2 years!  His rookie year was 3200+.

Excluding his rookie year he’s had 4 out of 5 years with 3900-4100 and the year he didn’t was ‘17 when he had 3500 (in 15 games).

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CarrDe02.htm

Carr’s passing yards are insanely close every year.  It’s actually remarkable how close his stats are given how differnt the seasons have gone.

[MrOaktown_56]

The offensive staff is 100% trying to take things away from the Rams and Chiefs.

They see the Kelce hill chemistry (and how having both prevents brackets) and want to recreate that in Waller/ruggs.

They may see the Gurley being the "engine" of the offense mixed in with Cooks/Woods/Kupp play action shots and timing/wco concepts and want to recreate those as well.

[jimkelly02]

2 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

The offensive staff is 100% trying to take things away from the Rams and Chiefs.

They see the Kelce hill chemistry (and how having both prevents brackets) and want to recreate that in Waller/ruggs.

They may see the Gurley being the "engine" of the offense mixed in with Cooks/Woods/Kupp play action shots and timing/wco concepts and want to recreate those as well.

When I was looking up target state I got the same impression that we we’ve assembled a offensive roster that is mimicking a cross between KC and LAR... the similarities are striking.

heavy 2 TE sets..... dynamic WRs threatening deep.... heavy slot WR presence 

good run game (only LAR) with RBs who are A receiving threat

we just have to hope our guys develope and pan out.

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by jimkelly02

[Darbsk]

9 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

The offensive staff is 100% trying to take things away from the Rams and Chiefs.

They see the Kelce hill chemistry (and how having both prevents brackets) and want to recreate that in Waller/ruggs.

They may see the Gurley being the "engine" of the offense mixed in with Cooks/Woods/Kupp play action shots and timing/wco concepts and want to recreate those as well.

Good points and its interesting to see how we turn out. Andy Reid is a great coach but he's also had the good fortune to catch lighting in a bottle having drafted a top 3 TE a top 3 WR and a top 3 QB all at the same time. The Rams on the other hand I can see us being able to potentially supersede as we've got a better OL and a better QB.

Its nice to be able to see a discernible plan and direction we seem to be heading rather than just signing FAs and drafting in what seems like random as we've done in years past. I dont expect us to light up the league straight away but we should see an offense that us versatile and efficient.

[Bitty 2.0]

7 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

When I was looking up target state I got the same impression that we we’ve assembled a offensive roster that is mimicking a cross between KC and LAR... the similarities are striking.

heavy 2 TE sets..... dynamic WRs threatening deep.... heavy slot WR presence 

good run game (only LAR) with RBs who are A receiving threat

we just have to hope our guys develope and pan out.

 

I'm pretty sure they all run Gruden's offense.