2020 Minnesota Vikings Draft Class

[dc_vikingfan]

Saw during the draft Vikings had the most homegrown talent in the NFL last year somewhere around 54%. Which says a lot of about Rick especially since the Vikings hasn't been considered a talent starved team. He missed steps happen to be at the two most visible positions on offense QB and WR.  

[CWood21]

39 minutes ago, Krauser said:

The bottom few guys they picked in the 7th were effectively priority UDFAs. Spielman didn't want to run the risk of missing out on UDFAs since the predraft process was affected by the pandemic (they usually bring their targets in for their top 30 visits and try to recruit them). In a normal year, he probably trades down less and end up with 12-13 picks instead of 15.

They lost a lot of roster depth this year, so every one of their picks has a potential path to the roster. I think they'll keep all 9 players drafted through round 5, and roughly half of the last 6. That'd be 12.

That's kinda my point.  The Vikings might have walked away with 15 picks, but realistically speaking only 3-4 are really going to dictate the draft.  The Vikings aren't that talent deprived that you'll see the guys drafted after Round 5 worm their way onto the roster simply because they're so devoid of talent.  I'll give them props for taking more shots on those guys with UDFA grades, but that usually doesn't amount to much.

43 minutes ago, Krauser said:

But, success of the draft class shouldn't be measured by how many of their late rounders (6 players drafted from pick 202 onward) make it on the roster. Draft grades should be weighted by the value of the picks -- earlier picks used well should count more. 

I don't think the Vikings draft grades are primarily being driven by them landing Nate Stanley and Kyle Hinton, but because they got Jefferson, Gladney and Cleveland, 3 players considered starter quality at high value positions, two of whom (Jefferson and Cleveland) had been projected to go higher than where the Vikings got them, without trading up. Beyond that, most of their mid round and later round players were good value for where they were taken, and they traded down a few times to generate additional picks including two in the 2021 draft.

And I'm not arguing otherwise.  It's usually dictated by picks made on Day 1 and Day 2, and depending on how you view the prospects.  If you're looking at a glass half-full guy, then the Ravens drafted a high end #2/low-end #1 WR, a starting CB, and a developmental LT type.  If you're looking at a glass half empty, you've drafted a middling #2 WR, a nickel corner, and an OL tweener with significant functional strength concerns.  It's a matter of preference.  I think the Vikings did well, but I wouldn't say they killed it.  They filled needs with guys who were of solid value.  But in terms of drafts, I personally preferred the Cowboys, Ravens, Bengals (although, admittedly it's weighed heavily because of Burrow), and Buccaneers.  If there's one thing I'd hesitate on, the Vikings drafted didn't seem to produce much in the way of upside.  Maybe you'll disagree, but I don't see anyone who I think is going to be a top player at their position.

[Purplepride323]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Is it though?  I'm looking at the Vikings roster, and I'm not nearly as convinced as you are.  Justin Jefferson was pretty solidly WR4 for me, but I think you'd be hard pressed to convince me that he's going to come close to replicating Diggs' production from last year.  Long-term, the idea of going from Diggs to Jefferson makes sense, but for 2020 it's probably a downgrade.  Personally, I'm not a huge believer in Gladney.  Short corners with poor to average athletic skills aren't at a premium.  And I'm looking at the WRs in the division, I believe the only starting WR in the division that is sub-6' is Anthony Miller.  Ezra Cleveland might have been one of the more polarizing prospect IMO.

Diggs only had 62 catches last year. Not that hard to duplicate. I think Jefferson will be WR3 and mostly play in the slot, which you might have heard, he was the best at in college last year. I’m not the first to say this is the best WR class or draft class in a long time. The tape proves it, just watch and see. With this quarantine thing I’ve seen a lot of game tape and these guys in college are evolving. 
 

Now for Gladney, he’ll most likely be CB3 and play in nickel situations. Zimmer isn’t known for throwing the rookies out there to the wolves and setting them up for failure. Especially with cornerbacks. They will get eased into action. I think Gladney can be a very solid nickel corner. He has the quickness and tackling ability. Kind of reminds me of Terence Newman. Who was also 5’10” and very successful for Zimmer. Being that height isn’t as bad when you have long arms, and Gladney’s arms are longer than Dantzler’s, who is 4 inches taller than him. Just something to keep in mind.
 

Cleveland is the only one that might be red-shirted his first year from the top draft guys but I hope he surprises the coaching staff and they get forced to start him at LT. Which will kick Reiff in to the LG position. This would kill two birds with one stone and seems like the best case scenario imo. 

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Purplepride323

[Dolmonite26]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I think the Vikings did well, but I wouldn't say they killed it.  They filled needs with guys who were of solid value.  But in terms of drafts, I personally preferred the Cowboys, Ravens, Bengals (although, admittedly it's weighed heavily because of Burrow), and Buccaneers.  If there's one thing I'd hesitate on, the Vikings drafted didn't seem to produce much in the way of upside.  Maybe you'll disagree, but I don't see anyone who I think is going to be a top player at their position.

I think this is a very fair assessment, and one I appreciate, by the way. I didn't do much (read, none) before the draft so I was pretty much clueless on who these prospect were in terms of talent.

I've crash coursed since, but my take aways aren't exactly un-biased.

As for upside. As you say, it's a matter of preference. The more I watch of Jefferson, the more I don't see any reason he can't become the best receiver out of this class (not a prediction by the way), which would likely put him in the top tier in the NFL. This obviously is on his extreme high end range of outcomes, but I'm willing to bet on good athletes who are so technically skilled becoming more than just solid #2 WRs, Micheal Thomas and Keenan Allen come to mind.

I think it's a similar story for Cleveland as an even better athlete (freak) and technically skilled pass protector. Granted he doesn't seem to be an far technically as Jefferson is, that still profiles as a guy who has top tier upside.

Gladney is a tougher case and I find myself talking myself into liking him more than the other.

Interestingly enough, I'm not sure grading on only high end outcomes is the best way to go about it. But it's a nice exercise.

[Krauser]

33 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's kinda my point.  The Vikings might have walked away with 15 picks, but realistically speaking only 3-4 are really going to dictate the draft.  The Vikings aren't that talent deprived that you'll see the guys drafted after Round 5 worm their way onto the roster simply because they're so devoid of talent.  I'll give them props for taking more shots on those guys with UDFA grades, but that usually doesn't amount to much.

Good that we agree.

I don’t think the Vikings draft was only graded highly because of quantity.

I think they graded well because they filled needs at high value positions with some of the highest rated players available at their picks. They traded down to add picks and didn’t have to trade up to get Cleveland, who could have gone anytime after the late 1st without much surprise. They didn’t reach (until day 3). 

We know that the “more lottery tickets” approach is a smart one, especially after the early rounds. It is worth something that they have the biggest class of rookies in the league. They do have depth issues this year, losing a number of starters and contributing backups without being able to replace them in free agency. The Vikings have had more luck than most finding decent contributors in the 7th round, so hopefully one of those “UDFA grades” will find a role.

The more is more approach also generated roughly a late 3rd worth of equity with a 4th and a 5th in next year’s draft, which is especially impressive considering that came in addition to a big class headed by several quality picks this year.

Quote

And I'm not arguing otherwise.  It's usually dictated by picks made on Day 1 and Day 2, and depending on how you view the prospects.  If you're looking at a glass half-full guy, then the Ravens drafted a high end #2/low-end #1 WR, a starting CB, and a developmental LT type.  If you're looking at a glass half empty, you've drafted a middling #2 WR, a nickel corner, and an OL tweener with significant functional strength concerns.  It's a matter of preference.  I think the Vikings did well, but I wouldn't say they killed it.  They filled needs with guys who were of solid value.  But in terms of drafts, I personally preferred the Cowboys, Ravens, Bengals (although, admittedly it's weighed heavily because of Burrow), and Buccaneers.  If there's one thing I'd hesitate on, the Vikings drafted didn't seem to produce much in the way of upside.  Maybe you'll disagree, but I don't see anyone who I think is going to be a top player at their position.

You mean Vikings, not Ravens. 

Since we agree that the most important picks in a class are the first few, you don’t have to repeat the point.

I’m not going to argue with you about your evaluations, you’re entitled to your opinion. FWIW, I think Jefferson will be very good, Cleveland will be a decent starter and I’m not sure about Gladney.

I agree they took a lot of players with high floors, more than high ceilings. That seemed to be a strategy based on needing to improve overall depth and with the understanding that they’ll need a lot of rookies to contribute this year, and there may not be much of a preseason. I don’t think that’s a bad strategy considering where they are in their developmental cycle.

Not surprised you rank other classes higher. Even if you’d put the Vikings outside your top 5, the point was that the consensus is that they had one of the best classes in the league this year. We can add your rankings to everyone else’s, and that will still be true.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Krauser

[whitehops]

29 minutes ago, Purplepride323 said:

I think Jefferson will be WR3

who do you have as WR2?

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, Purplepride323 said:

Diggs only had 62 catches last year. Not that hard to duplicate. I think Jefferson will be WR3 and mostly play in the slot,

Jefferson will be WR2. Base offense will be 12 or 21 personnel: Thielen/Jefferson, Cook, Rudolph and one of Ham or Smith Jr. They rarely use 3 WRs outside of 3rd and long or 2 minute drill situations. Jefferson will be used in the slot in some 2 WR sets, as they often line up the 2 WRs on the same side. 

Diggs is excellent, and will be hard to replace. 62 catches is impressive when it comes on a team that didn’t throw much, and with a high catch rate on a deep average depth of target. There will almost certainly be a dropoff, especially this year. I agree Jefferson is a legitimately good prospect, so hopefully he can be another WR1A opposite Thielen before long.

1 hour ago, Purplepride323 said:

Now for Gladney, he’ll most likely be CB3 and play in nickel situations....

I think Gladney can be a very solid nickel corner. He has the quickness and tackling ability.

Zimmer teaches the nickel corner as a separate position than outside corner in his defense. Hughes has learned both, Hill and Boyd have only played outside. Unless Zimmer is OK with Hill (probably not Boyd) as CB2, I think he’ll keep Gladney as an outside corner this year. As @RpMc has pointed out, Gladney played a similar outside role in a similar scheme (quarters with pattern matching) for TCU. 

As an outside corner, Gladney might still be the CB3, with Hughes/Hill in base, and Hughes pushing in to the slot in nickel. But that seems more likely than teaching the rookie the NCB spot, keeping Hughes outside exclusively, and having to rely on Hill/Boyd/Dantzler to fill one of the outside spots.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Krauser

[battle2heaven]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Short corners with poor to average athletic skills aren't at a premium

Jeff gladney participated at the combine with a torn meniscus and still tested at above average athleticism. Can’t imagine what he can do (especially in agility drills) with two good meniscuses. 

His film has shown plenty of quick twitch traits. 

[Purplepride323]

34 minutes ago, whitehops said:

who do you have as WR2?

I got Bisi Johnson. He was pretty solid and surprised me in those games when he filled in for Thielen last year. I think him and Thielen on the outside with Jefferson and Sharpe in the slot would be decent. Some people say Sharpe is going to replace Diggs lol. I’m pretty sure he was signed to replace Treadwell as the WR4. Also I’ve seen a lot of people say Thielen is a slot WR. Though he’s pretty good in the slot, he’s pretty good everywhere they line him up. He lined up 70% of the time on the outside. I don’t think that makes him a slot receiver. I think we’ll actually have 5 WRs on game days this season with K.J. Osborn being the return specialist and occasionally lining up in the slot: 1. Thielen 2. Johnson 3. Jefferson 4. Sharpe 5. Osborn

[Purplepride323]

1 hour ago, Krauser said:

Jefferson will be WR2. Base offense will be 12 or 21 personnel: Thielen/Jefferson, Cook, Rudolph and one of Ham or Smith Jr. They rarely use 3 WRs outside of 3rd and long or 2 minute drill situations. Jefferson will be used in the slot in some 2 WR sets, as they often line up the 2 WRs on the same side. 

Diggs is excellent, and will be hard to replace. 62 catches is hard to replace when it comes with a high catch rate on a deep average depth of target. There will almost certainly be a dropoff, especially this year. I agree Jefferson is a legitimately good prospect, so hopefully he can be another WR1A opposite Thielen before long.

I’m pretty sure the reason why we did that last season is because Thielen was hurt. With Kubiak as the OC I think we’ll be lining up 3 WRs a lot more than we have in the past. In 2014, when he went to the SB with the Broncos, they were in 3 WR sets over 70% of the time! Now I’m not expecting a drastic change like that but maybe 50% of the time. This will also allow the running lanes to open up because the opposing defense will be forced into nickel sets. 

1 hour ago, Krauser said:

 Zimmer teaches the nickel corner as a separate position than outside corner in his defense. Hughes has learned both, Hill and Boyd have only played outside. Unless Zimmer is OK with Hill (probably not Boyd) as CB2, I think he’ll keep Gladney as an outside corner this year. As @RpMc has pointed out, Gladney played a similar outside role in a similar scheme (quarters with pattern matching) for TCU.

As an outside corner, Gladney might still be the CB3, with Hughes/Hill in base, and Hughes pushing in to the slot in nickel. But that seems more likely than teaching the rookie the NCB spot, keeping Hughes outside exclusively, and having to rely on Hill/Boyd/Dantzler to fill one of the outside spots.

I doubt Zimmer would use Hughes and Gladney on the outside, two smaller guys, when he’s known for preferring bigger guys on the outside. I imagine Hughes and Hill on the outside with Dantzler and Boyd being the 3rd and 4th option. Gladney can handle the slot with Hughes sometimes kicking inside with those other guys on the outside. Maybe when Hughes is inside, Gladney can play on the boundary but I don’t see both playing there at the same time. I think Hill, Dantzler and Boyd will be the best outside corners we’ll have this year. I always thought smaller guys are better at nickel ever since I saw Winfield kill it as the nickel and later Terence Newman. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Purplepride323

[Krauser]

19 minutes ago, Purplepride323 said:

I’m pretty sure the reason why we did that last season is because Thielen was hurt.

No, that’s how it worked before Thielen got hurt.

19 minutes ago, Purplepride323 said:

In 2014, when he went to the SB with the Broncos, they were in 3 WR sets over 70% of the time!

Pretty sure Peyton Manning had a lot to do with that.

If the Vikings were switching to a base 11 personnel system, pretty sure they would’ve invested another true WR, not just a returner and maybe slot like Osborn and a veteran retread like Sharpe. Bisi Johnson is a decent receiver, but he shouldn’t be a top 3 option in a 3WR offense if everyone’s healthy. 

They also would’ve been pretty stupid to extend CJ Ham.

We won’t know for sure until the season starts but I’d give you very good odds their personnel usage will be similar to last year.

27 minutes ago, Purplepride323 said:

I doubt Zimmer would use Hughes and Gladney on the outside, two smaller guys, when he’s known for preferring bigger guys on the outside. I imagine Hughes and Hill on the outside with Dantzler and Boyd being the 3rd and 4th option. Gladney can handle the slot with Hughes sometimes kicking inside with those other guys on the outside. Maybe when Hughes is inside, Gladney can play on the boundary but I don’t see both playing there at the same time. I think Hill, Dantzler and Boyd will be the best outside corners we’ll have this year. I always thought smaller guys are better at nickel ever since I saw Winfield kill it as the nickel and later Terence Newman. 

Again, no way of knowing until the season starts.

In my scenario, Hughes is the slot corner. He’s small and quick to fit the role you’re imagining.

If Gladney starts off by learning the nickel position, I don’t think they’ll use him outside as a rookie. That means Hughes outside full time and Dantzler vs Hill for the other starting outside spot.

But given Gladney’s experience as an outside corner in college, and the shortened preseason that will make it harder for the rookies to learn a new position, I think my version is more likely. 

[Purplepride323]

19 minutes ago, Krauser said:

In my scenario, Hughes is the slot corner. He’s small and quick to fit the role you’re imagining.

If Gladney starts off by learning the nickel position, I don’t think they’ll use him outside as a rookie. That means Hughes outside full time and Dantzler vs Hill for the other starting outside spot.

But given Gladney’s experience as an outside corner in college, and the shortened preseason that will make it harder for the rookies to learn a new position, I think my version is more likely. 

I think either one of Gladney or Dantzler will be in the slot. Can’t imagine us having 4 outside guys and only one to play nickel. Like you said Hill and Boyd played mostly on the boundary. So I don’t think that’ll change. Also imo from what I’ve seen, Dantzler is noticeably better as an outside corner than Gladney is. You’re right, we’ll have to wait and see when the season starts. But if it’s based on what I’ve seen on film, Dantzler should stick as the 3rd outside corner with Hughes and Gladney as the designated nickels. Can’t wait to see what happens, but I imagine all 5 of these guys getting quality snaps. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Purplepride323

[Purplepride323]

33 minutes ago, Krauser said:

No, that’s how it worked before Thielen got hurt.

Pretty sure Peyton Manning had a lot to do with that.

If the Vikings were switching to a base 11 personnel system, pretty sure they would’ve invested another true WR, not just a returner and maybe slot like Osborn and a veteran retread like Sharpe. Bisi Johnson is a decent receiver, but he shouldn’t be a top 3 option in a 3WR offense if everyone’s healthy. 

They also would’ve been pretty stupid to extend CJ Ham.

We won’t know for sure until the season starts but I’d give you very good odds their personnel usage will be similar to last year.

Again, no way of knowing until the season starts.

Idk man I think Bisi Johnson is going to surprise a lot of people. He certainly surprised me last year and he should be even better this year. He can be a good WR2 until Jefferson surpasses him. Don’t think it’ll be in his rookie season. Maybe half way through the season, but I doubt it. Also having one FB on the team doesn’t mean he’s always going to be on the field. Personally I don’t think the Broncos mostly having 3 WRs on the field was a testament to Manning, but more so a testament to Kubiak, who usually loves passing the ball. I think it’ll bring a good balance to the team. Where we’ll be more unpredictable for defenses. We’ll have a run- heavy team that also loves to throw the ball. I think this was the main purpose of making Kubiak the OC. To bring balance to an offense that was mostly one dimensional last year. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Purplepride323

[Krauser]

5 minutes ago, Purplepride323 said:

a testament to Kubiak, who usually loves passing the ball

No, that’s not right.

This might help: https://www.baltimoresportsandlife.com/introduction-gary-kubiak-offense/

7 minutes ago, Purplepride323 said:

I think this was the main purpose of bringing in Kubiak. To bring balance to an offense that was mostly one dimensional last year.

Kubiak joined the Vikings in 2019. Stefanski was the OC last year but they were running Kubiak’s scheme. This was no secret, the broadcasts cut to Kubiak watching from the booth upstairs about 15 times a game.

Don’t expect the scheme to change this year.

[Purplepride323]

34 minutes ago, Krauser said:

No, that’s not right.

This might help: https://www.baltimoresportsandlife.com/introduction-gary-kubiak-offense/

Kubiak joined the Vikings in 2019. Stefanski was the OC last year but they were running Kubiak’s scheme. This was no secret, the broadcasts cut to Kubiak watching from the booth upstairs about 15 times a game.

Don’t expect the scheme to change this year.

He was the offensive advisor last year. Why would he have more power than the actual offensive coordinator? I don’t think that makes sense. I’m sure things would be different and more balanced with him as the OC this year. You’re entitled to own your opinion but I think we’re going to pass the ball more than we did last year and be more creative.