2021 NFL Draft Thread

[Humble_Beast]

biggest needs to me before the 2020 season

Pressing

1)DT- by a wide margin

 

Could upgrade

2) FS- Randall could surprise, but still could see a young stud FS to paid with Abram

3) LB- depth still meh, Muse is a question mark. Unit could use more talent

4) RB- the thumper and nice RB2

maybe new talent

5) RG- Gabe Jackson on his way out?

6) WR- could never have enough weapons

 

 

 

 

[NYRaider]

It’s almost impossible to predict draft needs because our entire defense is more or less a question mark coming into the season. 
 

DE - Can Crosby replicate his production or make a jump? Is Ferrell going to be able to make a leap? If those guys aren’t productive this season then edge becomes a pressing need again. 

DT - Can Collins take the next step and be a good every down player? Can Hurst become a consistent contributor? Either way we will likely need to add another good DT. 

LB - Can Kwit be a good full time starter for the first time in his career? Will Littleton be as effective in our scheme behind our DL? After those two we have almost nothing in the group. 

CB - Can Mullen develop into a high level starter? Will Arnette play up to his draft position? Will the other young CB’s play well (Johnson or Robertson) for us? Remember that Conley flashed here and then completely fell off. If our young guys struggle we really don’t have any proven quality talent at CB.

S - Can Damarious Randall finally our it all together as he enters his prime and be our FS going forward? Will Abram play up to the hype/draft position and will his style of play translate to the NFL? Randall is on a 1 year deal and Abram is basically a rookie. If those two don’t play well then safety because a major need here too. 

[Humble_Beast]

23 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

It’s almost impossible to predict draft needs because our entire defense is more or less a question mark coming into the season. 
 

DE - Can Crosby replicate his production or make a jump? Is Ferrell going to be able to make a leap? If those guys aren’t productive this season then edge becomes a pressing need again. 

DT - Can Collins take the next step and be a good every down player? Can Hurst become a consistent contributor? Either way we will likely need to add another good DT. 

LB - Can Kwit be a good full time starter for the first time in his career? Will Littleton be as effective in our scheme behind our DL? After those two we have almost nothing in the group. 

CB - Can Mullen develop into a high level starter? Will Arnette play up to his draft position? Will the other young CB’s play well (Johnson or Robertson) for us? Remember that Conley flashed here and then completely fell off. If our young guys struggle we really don’t have any proven quality talent at CB.

S - Can Damarious Randall finally our it all together as he enters his prime and be our FS going forward? Will Abram play up to the hype/draft position and will his style of play translate to the NFL? Randall is on a 1 year deal and Abram is basically a rookie. If those two don’t play well then safety because a major need here too. 

exactly, I just did it for the sake of it. I planned on doing 3 different Draft target  list(preseason, mid, and postseason)

[jimkelly02]

It feels like to me the plan is to just get by at DT, Safety (outside of Abrams), and LB (outside of Littleton and Kwiatkoski) and then add the pieces at these positions we need to finalize the defense.

Theres a good chance we’ll be able to really solidify this defense by ‘21.  The Mayock drafted players should be progressing nicely and with the right additions we will have a well constructed D.  there are a good amount of players on defense that I feel are just place holders for the ‘20 season.  1-2 may be worth bringing back... but next offseason we should know what we have in draft picks plus Recent FA additions And then will draft and sign the players we need to compliment them.

[Darbsk]

9 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

It feels like to me the plan is to just get by at DT, Safety (outside of Abrams), and LB (outside of Littleton and Kwiatkoski) and then add the pieces at these positions we need to finalize the defense.

Theres a good chance we’ll be able to really solidify this defense by ‘21.  The Mayock drafted players should be progressing nicely and with the right additions we will have a well constructed D.  there are a good amount of players on defense that I feel are just place holders for the ‘20 season.  1-2 may be worth bringing back... but next offseason we should know what we have in draft picks plus Recent FA additions And then will draft and sign the players we need to compliment them.

I think what you're saying makes sense however from the Raiders perspective there could be a fly in the ointment, maybe we play pretty well this season and guys like Crosby, Abram and Mullen step up. All seems good and going to plan and Collins has a great year and Randall looks like a quality starter and the FO thinks great, we only need a little depth at LB, S and a run stuffing DT. But what if Collins breaks out and he's off in FA for an inflated contract, what if Randall sees the dollar signs and leaves? All of a sudden we now need a starting FS and we're back to square one at DT with that being a huge need on top of the depth at LB and safety and I'm not sure if Hankins is in contract either. They must be really confident they can bring these guys back or we're just chasing our tails it seems to me. Knowingly leaving gaps in the depth seems a risky strategy to me 😬 

[true2form]

19 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I do not think the record will play to much into the QB choice.  I think Gruden is going to make a decision on Carr based upon his ability to run the offense.  Carr can put up stats between the 20's all day long but if he can not make the correct reads in the red-zone Gruden is going to lose it.  Whether the team wins or loses he is going to judge the QBs based upon their ability to execute properly.  If Carr runs the O like Gruden wants and scores 25+ points a game and the defense is giving up 30+ I do not think Gruden puts that on Carr.  We either succeed, Carr is gone, Guenther is gone, or both are gone.

I agree with all of that, but I was referring to the posts above where we are talking about the #9 pick.  That's what the replies are about.

[jimkelly02]

4 hours ago, Darbsk said:

I think what you're saying makes sense however from the Raiders perspective there could be a fly in the ointment, maybe we play pretty well this season and guys like Crosby, Abram and Mullen step up. All seems good and going to plan and Collins has a great year and Randall looks like a quality starter and the FO thinks great, we only need a little depth at LB, S and a run stuffing DT. But what if Collins breaks out and he's off in FA for an inflated contract, what if Randall sees the dollar signs and leaves? All of a sudden we now need a starting FS and we're back to square one at DT with that being a huge need on top of the depth at LB and safety and I'm not sure if Hankins is in contract either. They must be really confident they can bring these guys back or we're just chasing our tails it seems to me. Knowingly leaving gaps in the depth seems a risky strategy to me 😬 

Most definitely Randall and Collins could turn Out to be hits.... and we can extend them during the year if so.... over even resign in FA. 
we can’t be afraid to lose guys like that.  There are always better options.  Being afraid is why we signed (And overpaid) Nassib and Heath and could have had Clowney.  There are plenty of DT and FS options in the draft and FA next year.... like it’s packed with options.

Hankins is a FA after this year, btw.  Id love to resign him.... but if not Dalvin Tomlinson would be a great option too.  But for the money Hankins seems to me like he’d cost to what he brings I’d resign him, even extend him prior.

[jimkelly02]

Why are we picking 9 in mock drafts?  They think we’re gonna be worse off?  
 

and no way Gregory Rousseau is there at 9..... he’s a legit top 3-5 pick and would be #1 most years.  It’s just that QB Trevor Lawrence and Penei Sowell are Once in 5-10 year prospects.

[Darbsk]

2 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

Most definitely Randall and Collins could turn Out to be hits.... and we can extend them during the year if so.... over even resign in FA. 
we can’t be afraid to lose guys like that.  There are always better options.  Being afraid is why we signed (And overpaid) Nassib and Heath and could have had Clowney.  There are plenty of DT and FS options in the draft and FA next year.... like it’s packed with options.

Hankins is a FA after this year, btw.  Id love to resign him.... but if not Dalvin Tomlinson would be a great option too.  But for the money Hankins seems to me like he’d cost to what he brings I’d resign him, even extend him prior.

Oh, I'm not talking about being afraid to resign these guys, merely that if what you mentioned above in the post before mine was correct and we're prepared to play this year knowing we have a couple of holes that can be easily filled in draft or FA next, that is kind of assuming no one leaves and no more holes are created. If a couple guys leave then we'd gave to fill those holes aswell, especially if they are good players. 

So, hypothetically we dont sign any new depth, play this year and scrape a Wild Card and have some momentum. Next year is the big push that has been planned all along and we feel like we just need a couple key signings to push us over the top. Then FA arrives and Collins, Hankins and Randall have great offers and go chasing the dollars. All of a sudden were back to having to find a complete interior DL and trying once again to find a starting safety and depth, plus depth at DT, LB. That is just on D, and not factoring in injuries, guys like Abram, Ferrell, Mullen, Arnette who may or may not work out and so on. It's a pessimistic scenario granted 😁, but what I was trying to get at was to deliberately leave holes this year as our big push is next year and we assume we can just plug them then seems risky as we may have new holes created one way or another next year aswell.

Edited August 14, 2020 by Darbsk

[jimkelly02]

17 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

Oh, I'm not talking about being afraid to resign these guys, merely that if what you mentioned above in the post before mine was correct and we're prepared to play this year knowing we have a couple of holes that can be easily filled in draft or FA next, that is kind of assuming no one leaves and no more holes are created. If a couple guys leave then we'd gave to fill those holes aswell, especially if they are good players. 

So, hypothetically we dont sign any new depth, play this year and scrape a Wild Card and have some momentum. Next year is the big push that has been planned all along and we feel like we just need a couple key signings to push us over the top. Then FA arrives and Collins, Hankins and Randall have great offers and go chasing the dollars. All of a sudden were back to having to find a complete interior DL and trying once again to find a starting safety and depth, plus depth at DT, LB. That is just on D, and not factoring in injuries, guys like Abram, Ferrell, Mullen, Arnette who may or may not work out and so on. It's a pessimistic scenario granted 😁, but what I was trying to get at was to deliberately leave holes this year as our big push is next year and we assume we can just plug them then seems risky as we may have new holes created one way or another next year aswell.

I get what your saying but there always are going to be a bunch of holes to fill on each side of the ball.  Would you rather we lock into non-franchise players long term and give up flexibility?  Just so we have less holes to fill?  
Flexibility is paramount, we can easily fill Out the depth players via the draft and “value” free agent signings.

As you said who knows what the future brings due to injury + etc. we’ll likely have 6-9 new players on A 25 man defense next year.  
would you rather we have locked up Collins and Randall long term.... which would have costed more money.  Randal took 1yr, 2.3M but If he was to sign for 2 years he’d want guaranteed year 2 money and more money in general.  Both of them are betting on themselves to play well and get the big deal they didn’t get this year.  They wouldn’t get against themselves and take 2 years at the same price.

[jimkelly02]

@Darbsk the only way to have depth players locked up for several years is through the draft and finding UDFAs that hit.  That’s kinda why I was so disgusted with our UDFAs this year.  They were horrible.  
Why would we ever sign guys backups (aside from guys like Nassib who play nearly starter snap counts) deals over 2 years.... which would require guaranteed money on their deals?  Then we’re locked into them.

[Darbsk]

37 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

I get what your saying but there always are going to be a bunch of holes to fill on each side of the ball.  Would you rather we lock into non-franchise players long term and give up flexibility?  Just so we have less holes to fill?  
Flexibility is paramount, we can easily fill Out the depth players via the draft and “value” free agent signings.

As you said who knows what the future brings due to injury + etc. we’ll likely have 6-9 new players on A 25 man defense next year.  
would you rather we have locked up Collins and Randall long term.... which would have costed more money.  Randal took 1yr, 2.3M but If he was to sign for 2 years he’d want guaranteed year 2 money and more money in general.  Both of them are betting on themselves to play well and get the big deal they didn’t get this year.  They wouldn’t get against themselves and take 2 years at the same price.

No, I'd like us to secure the depth with guys that could be relatively cheap and easy to bring back next year then if the worst happens were not looking to completely revamp a unit again. Basically halving the amount of moving parts, that's all 😀

 

[jimkelly02]

19 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

No, I'd like us to secure the depth with guys that could be relatively cheap and easy to bring back next year then if the worst happens were not looking to completely revamp a unit again. Basically halving the amount of moving parts, that's all 😀

 

I’d love that too.... were in agreement on basically everything.

except I feel players aren’t going to sign the 2-3 year contracts your looking for with only year 1 guaranteed.  
 

the players like Collins and Randall sign the “cheaper” 1 year deals because they’re hoping to hit the FA market after a good year and get paid.  Collins took 1y/6M but wouldn’t have taken 3y/18M with no guaranteed money after year 1.  Why would he?  If he plays great he’s stuck at 6M for 2 years?  Even if he plays great we can choose to cut him any time and he’d likely miss out on the first wave of FA.  If he plays poorly he definitely gets cut.

The only players who take over 1 year deals are guys like Heath, who know he’s lucky to be on the team for year 2 but cuz his contract is relatively low on year 2 he feels like there’s a good chance we’ll keep him.  Notice how year 1 he’s paid more than year 2? 
 

There’s always going to be a few starters that need to be resigning and most of the non-rookie deal starters.  All teams are like that.  The only way to lock up depth players long term is to overpay and commit to them.  It’s almost always a bad idea.  
Do you really want to give a S like Heath 2y,$7M with half his ‘21 salary guaranteed?  Or would you rather let him hit FA and if you know you want to keep him resign him prior and if unsure investigate other better or cheaper options?

 

[Humble_Beast]

1 hour ago, jimkelly02 said:

@Darbsk the only way to have depth players locked up for several years is through the draft and finding UDFAs that hit.  That’s kinda why I was so disgusted with our UDFAs this year.  They were horrible.  
Why would we ever sign guys backups (aside from guys like Nassib who play nearly starter snap counts) deals over 2 years.... which would require guaranteed money on their deals?  Then we’re locked into them.

lets talk depth on defense

DE: Nassib should be a solid depth piece for a few years/starter, hopefully Key pans out(optimistic).. Key locked up another 2 years

DT: Hurst be good depth for his rookie deal, could use another guy for depth

OLB: Muse/White hopefully the boys step up to be at least depth, maybe Muse emerges as starter. we shall see, an unknown

MLB: could use a backup 

CB: hopefully Amik earns that slot spot. assuming the thought process is Arnette/Mullen to be future starters wonder if Dixon/Johnson/Mabin develop or even make the team. All on cost control contracts

S: Heath and Harris should provide safety depth for the next two years. Heath one of the best 3rd safeties in football. 

 

our depth isn't bad on paper just a lot of youth and unknown. hoepfully on LB and CB depth is the real deal. I have no doubt about our DE/S depth. Most potential we had one defense in awhile. 

[Darbsk]

19 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

I’d love that too.... were in agreement on basically everything.

except I feel players aren’t going to sign the 2-3 year contracts your looking for with only year 1 guaranteed.  
 

the players like Collins and Randall sign the “cheaper” 1 year deals because they’re hoping to hit the FA market after a good year and get paid.  Collins took 1y/6M but wouldn’t have taken 3y/18M with no guaranteed money after year 1.  Why would he?  If he plays great he’s stuck at 6M for 2 years?  Even if he plays great we can choose to cut him any time and he’d likely miss out on the first wave of FA.  If he plays poorly he definitely gets cut.

The only players who take over 1 year deals are guys like Heath, who know he’s lucky to be on the team for year 2 but cuz his contract is relatively low on year 2 he feels like there’s a good chance we’ll keep him.  Notice how year 1 he’s paid more than year 2? 
 

There’s always going to be a few starters that need to be resigning and most of the non-rookie deal starters.  All teams are like that.  The only way to lock up depth players long term is to overpay and commit to them.  It’s almost always a bad idea.  
Do you really want to give a S like Heath 2y,$7M with half his ‘21 salary guaranteed?  Or would you rather let him hit FA and if you know you want to keep him resign him prior and if unsure investigate other better or cheaper options?

 

I agree that isn't the best idea but what I mean is to bring in guys like (but not limited to) Compton, Jernigan, a RB, S, LB etc. So they are in place depth and we can simply bring them back next year if they are decent, we have done this to effect previously. It would mean we have guys familiar with the system that we know can perform a role and we can then just concentrate on replacing guys we cant resign or the odd starter rather than filling a dozen moving pieces. We'll always have holes to fill if course but we're trying to create stability and have as few moving parts as possible in my view.