JAF-N72EX Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 On 8/28/2020 at 11:23 AM, abstract_thought said: This team is not a contender. Contenders win playoff games. Contenders don't have 40-1 Super Bowl odds. The issue with this team is trajectory. While 2018 was great, the team has not built on that season and is now in win-now mode because they have an unclear QB situation and no financial flexibility to fix it. The 49ers say hi. They were at EXACTLY 40-1 odds before the season started last year . https://www.ninersnation.com/2019/11/10/20955799/a-look-at-how-the-49ers-super-bowl-odds-have-changed-this-season Quote Before a ball was kicked in September, San Francisco was 16th favorite and could be backed to win the Super Bowl at odds of +4000 or 40/1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 I placed early bets before the draft when the stock was at 40-1 (knowing how random this season would be giving the C19 issues). When will people realize that Vegas odds are not based on NFL expert votes or what Vegas thinks of each team's chances are of winning the SB. They are solely based on which range/category odds each team are put in place by the majority of bookies based on what they think the majority of people (gamblers) are willing to bet the most money on to win at any certain place, time, and date. This is where daily/weekly/monthly fluctuation comes into play. This is Vegas people. VEGAS. A multi-billion dollar organization. They make their money by taking advantage of the less-informed people who are willing to make the most dumbest bets. There are those who bet on the most outlandish team(s) to win the SB in hopes of catching lightening in a bottle and because they have that type of money to burn and are willing take that type of risk. Then there those who are just either broke or having fun with it all who bet on the most obvious team(s), just to make themselves actually feel like won something. And Vegas wins either way. For example, NE when they're a clear favorite to win at 2/1 and they win the SB and someone bets on 'em. Vegas/Bookies are going ....."ummm okay, here's your little chump change. I just made $800k from the millions of other idiots who bet on Browns this year". Any bets in-between, vegas is going "okay, here take it...I just made 1.5M on those idiots who bet on NE and Browns. Fun fact, IIRC vegas' predictions hover around the 50% mark on average. Why? Because the majority of people who dictate the odds(bookies/bettors) are made up of people who are either; casual fans (who generally only go by what they read in social media), or fans who only pay attention to their favorite team, or people who don't even watch football at all but have advisors. How many of you have ever bet on a horse race in hopes of striking it big without knowing a damn thing about horse racing? (*raises hand). Conversely, why do you think there are still people betting on teams like the Browns and Jax every single year? The higher/lower the risk, the more money they make. It's that's simple. And that's what dictates the market. Which, in turn dictates the odds that are put in place. FYI, this post wasn't just meant for you but for others who I've seen posting or referencing vegas odds as if it means something useful. I just ignored it the last time it was brought up here so I used this time to vent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 On 8/28/2020 at 9:23 AM, abstract_thought said: This team is not a contender. Contenders win playoff games. Contenders don't have 40-1 Super Bowl odds. The issue with this team is trajectory. While 2018 was great, the team has not built on that season and is now in win-now mode because they have an unclear QB situation and no financial flexibility to fix it. The financial ability is there. We've just one two years with no #1 draft pick although have we actually missed out on anyone in the last two drafts that's another Mahomes? We've lost one playoff game on a failed PK we were in a position to win because of a great last minute drive. Boo phuc'n hoo. Are we a SB contender right now? No Can we be considered a reasonable bet to make the playoffs? Hell yes. Once you make the playoffs any team could be a SB contender......baby steps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted August 30, 2020 Author Share Posted August 30, 2020 14 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said: When will people realize that Vegas odds are not based on NFL expert votes or what Vegas thinks of each team's chances are of winning the SB. They are solely based on which range/category odds each team are put in place by the majority of bookies based on what they think the majority of people (gamblers) are willing to bet the most money on to win at any certain place, time, and date. This is where daily/weekly/monthly fluctuation comes into play. Thank you! Anyone using Sports Book odds to predict a SB winner probably believes the stock market is a prime indicator of a great economy. Unlike someone who cheated to get into Penn U and then became the worst student one business prof ever had (six BKs should be ample evidence of someone who slept through class or is just plain stupid) I spent over 30 years of my life deeply involved in both economics and the equity and capital markets and the SP500 is not a primary or even tertiary economic indicator. Odds are created to make big money for sports books not operate pro football teams. The season hasn't even begun and half this place has already given up. Much more of this doom and gloom bull **** and I'm about ready to give up posting. 🤬 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 15 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said: FYI, this post wasn't just meant for you but for others who I've seen posting or referencing vegas odds as if it means something useful. I just ignored it the last time it was brought up here so I used this time to vent. Vegas odds aren't quite the slipshod throw-together you make them out to be. But...they are generally too quarterback focused, and too imprecise overall, to be the determining factor in ANY argument. Also, 40-1 aren't terrible odds anyway. 29 minutes ago, soulman said: Are we a SB contender right now? No Can we be considered a reasonable bet to make the playoffs? Hell yes. Once you make the playoffs any team could be a SB contender......baby steps. Hate to disagree with you dude, but the Bears are absolutely Super Bowl contenders. If it turns out I'm wrong about that, I'll gladly recant. But I don't think it'll be necessary. Foles can play well enough to keep the chains moving. The O Line will be better. As will Montgomery. Just wait and see. 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 (edited) 16 hours ago, Heinz D. said: Vegas odds aren't quite the slipshod throw-together you make them out to be. But...they are generally too quarterback focused, and too imprecise overall, to be the determining factor in ANY argument. Also, 40-1 aren't terrible odds anyway. Hate to disagree with you dude, but the Bears are absolutely Super Bowl contenders. If it turns out I'm wrong about that, I'll gladly recant. But I don't think it'll be necessary. Foles can play well enough to keep the chains moving. The O Line will be better. As will Montgomery. Just wait and see. 😉 Haha.....that OK. Disagree away and I'll be wishing and hoping you're right and I'm wrong. Two things are making me feel we're still a year away. 1) Our unsettled QB situation which will have to become fully settled during this season. 2) A need to further strengthen our OL should Ifedi fail to capture RG and Leno and/or Massie can't rise above average. I think any way we look at it Pace's next major moves need to be completing a rebuilding of the OL that's had to be postponed due to the loss of 1st round picks in the Mack trade. Our chances of drafting a top OT improves in 2021 even more if we don't have to use our top pick to replace Mitch. Our chances also improve if Castillo can develop some talent out of the menagerie of low round picks and UDFA lineman we've given him as a project. But.....it's gonna be anything but business as usual for NFL teams so anything can happen and therefore I will never say never gonna happen. 😁 Edited August 31, 2020 by soulman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 On 8/29/2020 at 11:44 PM, JAF-N72EX said: The 49ers say hi. They were at EXACTLY 40-1 odds before the season started last year . https://www.ninersnation.com/2019/11/10/20955799/a-look-at-how-the-49ers-super-bowl-odds-have-changed-this-season They had a top 5 offense last season. They have one of the best TE and OL in the NFL. Do the Bears? Being a contender requires more than just a good defense. This Bears team simply doesn't have a contending offense. I know others have talked about 2006 before but that team had a great offensive line and running game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 hour ago, abstract_thought said: They had a top 5 offense last season. They have one of the best TE and OL in the NFL. Do the Bears? Being a contender requires more than just a good defense. This Bears team simply doesn't have a contending offense. I know others have talked about 2006 before but that team had a great offensive line and running game. If the Bears have a top 5 offense then I will change my tune about this season. SF is better at: play caller, QB, RB, TE and OL. We have 0 chance of being a top 10 offense. What does this offense do well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 7 hours ago, WindyCity said: We have 0 chance of being a top 10 offense. What does this offense do well? They aren't even playing yet. And they may not need to be a top ten offense to get to the Super Bowl, anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 4 hours ago, Heinz D. said: They aren't even playing yet. And they may not need to be a top ten offense to get to the Super Bowl, anyway. The conversation was in relation to SF who ended up as a top 10 offense last season. Question still stands, what does this offense do well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 18 hours ago, WindyCity said: Question still stands, what does this offense do well? No clue. Maybe nothing. Maybe a lot of things. It'll take a few games to get the schemes rolling (for every team, I'd imagine)--but still, we'll find out soon enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Heinz D. said: No clue. Maybe nothing. Maybe a lot of things. It'll take a few games to get the schemes rolling (for every team, I'd imagine)--but still, we'll find out soon enough. No clue is the issue. They don’t have anything that stands out as a positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Ryan Pace deserves a a kick in the nuts if things don't get turned around this year...I'll tell you that much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 25 minutes ago, WindyCity said: No clue is the issue. They don’t have anything that stands out as a positive. You have little to base that claim on. They haven't taken the field yet. And let's not waste time disputing that fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 59 minutes ago, Heinz D. said: You have little to base that claim on. They haven't taken the field yet. And let's not waste time disputing that fact. Besides the TE's and MAYBE the quarterback, nothing has changed from last year and that was incredibly difficult to watch. Until they do take the field in 12 days, all we can go off of is 2019's performance 1 hour ago, topwop1 said: Ryan Pace deserves a a kick in the nuts if things don't get turned around this year...I'll tell you that much. And by kick in the nuts you mean finding a new job? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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