2020 NBA Offseason Thread

[Mox]

I'm in shock. What a wild take. Let's evaluate this.

Nuggets w/o Jokic (last 4 years)

4-9

Nuggets w/o Murray

8-5 last season, 13-8 in total

 

Your take is that the 2017 Nuggets jumped from 17th offense to 4th offense because of this guy:

21.5 mpg 9.9 ppg 2.1 rpg 2.6 apg  40.4-33.4-88.3

Then while this same player improved the next three years the offense was 6th, 6th and 5th. That's the offensive engine? Seriously? 

37 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Is Jokic someone you want coming up the court with the ball running an offense?  We're in a guard/wing-driven league, and you're talking about him running an offense like he's LeBron James or something.  You can run your offense through your big man, but that doesn't make him the creator.  I think they're both tremendous offensive players, but I don't think there are very many big men that are the creators.  I mean, look at the on/off numbers for Murray and Jokic.  They're noticeably better when Murray is on the court (+5.5 vs. -1.5) as opposed to Jokic (+4.4 vs. -1.9).  They're both damn good offensive players, but some make it sound like Jokic is on a different level offensively.  Anthony Davis looks to score more than Jokic (by about 3 FGA per game), where as Jokic looks to pass more.  If you asked the two to switch situations, do you think Anthony Davis has the same production, more production, or less production than Jokic?  I think we're going to see Anthony Davis continue to score a bit more (albeit at a lower rate than he is in LA), but his passing numbers (i.e. assists) will go up.

As it's been discussed ad nauseam, aside from Jrue Holiday the teammates that Anthony Davis have been crap.  There's really no way around that.  And I'd argue that Jamal Murray is in a similar tier to Jrue Holiday.  But who is comparable as Will Barton, Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, MPJ, etc.  We're talking about Anthony Davis playing with guys like Julius Randle, E'Twaun Moore, Solomon Hill, Elfrid Payton, and Lance Stephenson.  These are guys who shouldn't even be rotational players on most teams.  But you'll point to guys like Torrey Craig or Mason Plumlee, and ignore the guys that are core guys.

They have?  The Nuggets have made the playoffs TWICE since Nikola Jokic has been a Nugget.  This year and last year.  They made it to the Semis in 2018/19 where both series they played in went 7 games.  And they made it to the WCF Finals this year with both of their series going 7 games before losing to the Lakers in 5.  I believe the Pelicans went to the playoffs twice with Anthony Davis, with again a much inferior supporting cast.  Jokic has one better playoff career then Anthony Davis, and like you mentioned it happened when Murray "exploded" in the postseason this year.

Who cares who brings the ball up? The Nuggets have one of the slowest offenses in the NBA and an elite halfcourt offense. It doesn't matter who brings it up because the offense is worked through Jokic regardless. You're right that there aren't many elite big men creators. That's why Jokic is so special. He's a top 5 offensive anchor in the NBA despite being a big. No one else can say that. It's what makes him special. Last season is the only season Murray has had better +/- data than Jokic and it's because he missed 13 games while Jokic played every one. They were still pretty close despite that and still plenty good without Murray.

I make it sound like they are on different levels offensively because they are. Jokic is, at minimum, a full tier ahead of Davis as the best offensive player on a team. I don't see what's so hard to understand about that. He's led better offenses. He's a transcendent facilitator. He's completely unique offensively. He can create looks for others that Davis couldn't dream of. If they switched situations Denver would have a much better defense and a significantly worse offense. Murray plays off Jokic, and Davis plays off LeBron. Putting them together wouldn't work nearly as well. It would highlight that Murray is a score first guard and Davis is a score first big and neither are primary creators. I don't care if his raw assists would go up. That would come from increased usage, not increased impact. 

If there is one thing I've taken from this it's that you are wildly high on Jamal Murray. Shockingly so actually. If you think he and Holiday are close, then you don't understand the impact Jokic has on him to allow him to be his best self. Without Jokic, Murray is an top notch scorer but mediocre playmaker and defender. His lack of playmaking ability is completely disguised by the fact that he plays next to the best passing big ever. 

Let's talk about casts. Will Barton, a nobody until he played with Jokic. Gary Harris, solid/good roleplayer who has been injured and regressed the last few years after a promising start. Paul Millsap, awesome role player, put also past his prime. MPJ has played 55 games. Not exactly a murderers row.

Yes, they have had more success. They missed out on the playoffs by one game in 2018. Won a series in 2019. Won two series in 2020. 2nd and 3rd seeds back to back before Murray explosion. Davis finished better than the 10 seed twice and peaked as a 6. That's considerably more success in five years than Davis had in seven. 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Bullet Club

[beekay414]

I know this isn't relevant to the convo right now but I got a big money fantasy league draft on Sunday. It's a h2h points league. I got stuck with the 4th pick so I missed out on the Harden/Giannis/Doncic tier and have to decide between AD, KAT and Joker. I know KAT has a stupid ceiling but I've kinda come down to AD vs Joker due to the PF/C flexibility (I typically avoid 1 position players) and I had KAT last year. Someone help me out here cuz I'm stuck on whether I go with the ceiling (AD/KAT) or the guy I know is going to play every game (Joker).

Scoring is 0.5/3pt FG, 1/PT, 1.2/REB, 1.5/AST, 3/STL, 3/BLK, -1/TOV, 2/Double Double, 4/Triple Double

I'm leaning AD right now but his injury history scares me and injuries have flat out effed me the last few years. Someone, please, kindly give me some advice. I don't want to be second guessing my first rounder lol.

[champ11]

1 hour ago, beekay414 said:

I know this isn't relevant to the convo right now but I got a big money fantasy league draft on Sunday. It's a h2h points league. I got stuck with the 4th pick so I missed out on the Harden/Giannis/Doncic tier and have to decide between AD, KAT and Joker. I know KAT has a stupid ceiling but I've kinda come down to AD vs Joker due to the PF/C flexibility (I typically avoid 1 position players) and I had KAT last year. Someone help me out here cuz I'm stuck on whether I go with the ceiling (AD/KAT) or the guy I know is going to play every game (Joker).

Scoring is 0.5/3pt FG, 1/PT, 1.2/REB, 1.5/AST, 3/STL, 3/BLK, -1/TOV, 2/Double Double, 4/Triple Double

I'm leaning AD right now but his injury history scares me and injuries have flat out effed me the last few years. Someone, please, kindly give me some advice. I don't want to be second guessing my first rounder lol.

Tough call mate. Last year Jok started slow bc he was out of shape. He's skinny and looks locked in this year. I don't know much about fantasy so don't think I can help you out

[beekay414]

Just now, champ11 said:

Tough call mate. Last year Jok started slow bc he was out of shape. He's skinny and looks locked in this year. I don't know much about fantasy so don't think I can help you out

Can we expect more of playoff Jokic? If he can up his PPG to 23-24 a night, his value would likely skyrocket. The difference between AD and Joker is the STL/BLK bump that AD gets due to getting about 12-15 PT/G from those cats.

The thing is, AD is always an injury risk and Joker seems like he's a horse so I know I'll have him every game. God, I want to take Joker but the AD ceiling is stupid.

[champ11]

3 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Can we expect more of playoff Jokic? If he can up his PPG to 23-24 a night, his value would likely skyrocket. The difference between AD and Joker is the STL/BLK bump that AD gets due to getting about 12-15 PT/G from those cats.

The thing is, AD is always an injury risk and Joker seems like he's a horse so I know I'll have him every game. God, I want to take Joker but the AD ceiling is stupid.

i dont think so. jokic doesn't care about numbers. maybe he decides to shoot more this season, but if the nugs can carve up the kings without him going crazy he isn't going to force the issue to get his numbers. like i dont ever see him winning an MVP bc i just don't think he has the willingness to go get the numbers to do so. so i think AD probably has a higher ceiling fantasy wise, but like i said i don't really play. tough call tho. both are gonna put up dumb numbers  

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, champ11 said:

i dont think so. jokic doesn't care about numbers. maybe he decides to shoot more this season, but if the nugs can carve up the kings without him going crazy he isn't going to force the issue to get his numbers. like i dont ever see him winning an MVP bc i just don't think he has the willingness to go get the numbers to do so. so i think AD probably has a higher ceiling fantasy wise, but like i said i don't really play. tough call tho. both are gonna put up dumb numbers  

Yeah I was looking at Joker's numbers after his slow start and he was around 22 PPG. The difference is minimal between the two if you take out the slow start and I know Joker's gonna play every night unlike AD who is always a risk to miss time. Of course, playing in LA and having title aspirations, AD could be driven to play more. I might just go with Joker though for the triple double potential. Really can't go wrong with either.

[MKnight82]

2 hours ago, beekay414 said:

I know this isn't relevant to the convo right now but I got a big money fantasy league draft on Sunday. It's a h2h points league. I got stuck with the 4th pick so I missed out on the Harden/Giannis/Doncic tier and have to decide between AD, KAT and Joker. I know KAT has a stupid ceiling but I've kinda come down to AD vs Joker due to the PF/C flexibility (I typically avoid 1 position players) and I had KAT last year. Someone help me out here cuz I'm stuck on whether I go with the ceiling (AD/KAT) or the guy I know is going to play every game (Joker).

Scoring is 0.5/3pt FG, 1/PT, 1.2/REB, 1.5/AST, 3/STL, 3/BLK, -1/TOV, 2/Double Double, 4/Triple Double

I'm leaning AD right now but his injury history scares me and injuries have flat out effed me the last few years. Someone, please, kindly give me some advice. I don't want to be second guessing my first rounder lol.

I try to build on rebounds and blocks with my early picks, AD will give you that.  

[beekay414]

5 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I try to build on rebounds and blocks with my early picks, AD will give you that.  

For sure, the STL/BLK combo that he gives you is really valuable with them each being 3 points, you're looking at an average of 12 a night from that alone. That's the thing that separates him from Joker. Joker's good for about 6 a night there (1/1). It's really like a 3 PPG difference max between the two in the end and Joker is likely going to give me more points on the year due to availability. 

I'm also in that range where I could land Gobert/Ayton/Vuc with my 2nd and even 3rd picks. I definitely lean bigs early in this league. I think I'm going to go Joker though. May come back to haunt me but I have a feeling about him this year and after excluding his slow start, the gap narrows. I was leaning AD due to that slow start prior but I'm on Joker now, I think. God, who knows.

Edited December 17, 2020 by beekay414

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, beekay414 said:

For sure, the STL/BLK combo that he gives you is really valuable with them each being 3 points, you're looking at an average of 12 a night from that alone. That's the thing that separates him from Joker. Joker's good for about 6 a night there (1/1). It's really like a 3 PPG difference max between the two in the end and Joker is likely going to give me more points on the year due to availability. 

I'm also in that range where I could land Gobert/Ayton/Vuc with my 2nd and even 3rd picks. I definitely lean bigs early in this league. I think I'm going to go Joker though. May come back to haunt me but I have a feeling about him this year.

I know you're getting a lot of assists from him, but remember you can pad scoring and assists from your guards.  The best chance you have for blocks and rebounds are bigs.  

[beekay414]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

I know you're getting a lot of assists from him, but remember you can pad scoring and assists from your guards.  The best chance you have for blocks and rebounds are bigs.  

I am aware and I stack bigs early as it is. I'm pretty sure my first 4 picks will be bigs. It's a points league, not a h2h cat league. So I'm looking for points overall and the DD and TD bonuses that can hit.

[MKnight82]

15 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I am aware and I stack bigs early as it is. I'm pretty sure my first 4 picks will be bigs. It's a points league, not a h2h cat league. So I'm looking for points overall and the DD and TD bonuses that can hit.

It really sucks the way fantasy ended last year, I was plowing through my league.  It was a large 14 team league, I was in 2nd place heading towards the playoffs.  

[11sanchez11]

 

[TheRealMcCoy]

15 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

Not sure what there is to disagree with. Jokic is an elite offensive creator. That's what you want in a #1. He's a solid defensive player but he's not your anchor on that end. Davis is an elite offensive recipient. That's what you want in a #2. Davis also functions as a top notch defensive anchor. He's perfectly cast as a #2. I don't even know what the argument against this would be.

This is so silly. 

Shaq wasn’t an offensive creator. Guess he wasn’t a good #1.

There is multiple ways to skin a cat. Of course you need a good creator in addition to a great scorer, but that doesn’t have to be your #1 player.

Anyways, both players are top 10 and just need different types of surrounding casts. If you wanna argue it’s easier to find a great scorer to pair with Jokic and he makes his teammates better offensively that’s fine. Davis is the better defender and makes his teammates better on that end and is a superior scorer. Different flavors. Also, I don’t think anyone would disagree with Jokic having the better coach and supporting cast. To me the biggest thing in Jokic’s advantage for the beginning of their careers has been his availability. Davis didn’t play more than 68 games in any of his first 4 seasons while Jokic hasn’t played less than 73 games in any of his first 5 seasons.

I think both are very good leaders too.

If someone would rather have Jokic as their center piece I don’t really take issue with that, but down playing Davis and saying he’s easily the worse #1 is ignorant.

[TheRealMcCoy]

1 hour ago, 11sanchez11 said:

 

 

[Troy Brown]

lets get a nba forum fantasy league where loser has to say three nice things about the knicks