2021 NBA Draft Thread

[NYRaider]

Just now, Sllim Pickens said:

Your numebrs are off, that is only Sextons first year and Beals of that same year. Sexton over that three year period has a .1 OBPM, -2.5 DBPM = -2.4 BPM.  Last year he was 1.9 O, -1.9D = 0.  

Beal over the same period has 4.6OBPM, -1.6DPM = 3BPM.  Since that year of -.8DPM, he has gone -2.4 and -1.7.  The better his O the worse his D. 

And again, I am not saying he is the same exact player, I would rather have Beal in a vacuum, but Sexton has value too, or should have value.  Neither wins, Sexton is ahead of where Beal was as a scorer at the same age by far.  Both have similar efficiencies and both are about as bad defensively.  I guess I would rather take Sexton for 4 years 27M a year to Beal for 5 years 39M each when Beal will be 32 at the end of the contract and Sexton will still be improving.  Sextons offensive numbers are very similar across the board to Beals from 2015-16 through 2018-19. Beal was a slightly better defender in that time but not by much.  I know people were clamoring over Beal more than the last two years. 

My numbers are correct according to basketball reference. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sextoco01.html

 

[Sllim Pickens]

29 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Andrew Wiggins averaged 19 on almost identical efficiency numbers to Sexton/Beal. He should just take 9 more shots per game and he'd be a 30+ ppg player. 

When he did take more shots, his percentages were lower, including Ft% being pretty significantly down.  Sexton has gained shot attempts and efficiency every year in the league. He is doing exactly what you want a young player to do and that is project upwards.  Had Wiggins continued an upward trend, people would feel different about him.  Who knows what the future holds for Sexton but he just had a higher PER than any of Wiggins years and equivalent to what Beal had in his age 24 season when he first became an All Star. 

[Sllim Pickens]

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

My numbers are correct according to basketball reference. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sextoco01.html

 

Your numbers are just three years ago.  They arent the last three years.  You said that was over the last three years, which it very much is not. That is the 2018-19 season, on those links you sent. 

[H2ThaIzzo]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The Mitchell situation is different because after we drafted him we lost Gordon Hayward a couple of weeks later in free agency. Most people thought that we'd be one of the worst teams in the league and we made the 2nd round of the playoffs with a great team that included Ricky Rubio and Joe Ingles as the #2/#3 options offensively. 

Sexton was drafted by a team that had just reached the Finals the previous 3years and brought back a good portion of their roster. 

We've seen Mitchell put up some of the greatest performances in NBA playoffs history and it's only his 4th year. Sexton has scored 30+ 10 times and 40+ 2 times in 207 regular season games. Mitchell has scored 30+ 12 times, 40+ 2 times, and 50+ 2 times in 33 playoff games. 

There is definitely a ton of growing that can happen over 6 years. But Sexton has been one of the worst defensive players in the league every year of his career. Over the course of Beal's 9 year career he's a -0.9 DBPM, Sexton is a -2.5 DBPM. And as I said before Beal just became the 5th player in the last 31 seasons to average 30+ ppg in consecutive seasons, joining Harden, Jordan, Kobe, and Iverson. So unless you think Sexton is going to develop into one of the greatest scorers in the history of the sport, not really any reason to compare the two. 

We've seen Beal average 23/4/4 on the same efficiency numbers while playing better defense than Sexton on two playoff teams. We saw Anthony Davis average 24/10 and 28/11 on two playoff teams and then put up great numbers in 4/5 years while missing the playoffs, his rookie year being the only exception. 

As rookies PER36:

Anthony Davis: 16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks on 51% FG, 0% 3FG, 75% FT

James Wiseman: 19.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.6 blocks on 52% FG, 31% 3FG, 63% FT 

So based on the Beal/Sexton logic, Wiseman should be as valuable, if not more valuable then AD as a trade asset because he's on a cheaper deal and produced at the same level as AD did as a rookie. 

Okay, please tell me that you're not saying how big of a loss Hayward was to Utah, but then saying Sexton went to a team that had just went to 3 finals and returned a large group of their roster, completely omitting that one of the best NBA players of all time didn't leave for LA. We all know why the team was in the finals during that stretch of time, and that guy was gone from the team when Sexton was brought in. 

 

Also, where are you getting that I, or anyone else, is saying Sexton is more valuable than Beal from a trade aspect? I certainly have not said anything remotely close to that. 

 

FYI, the player I was referencing in the Collin comparison is Trae Young. a career -2.3 DPM guy. 

[brownie man]

I’ve been Kuminga to Cavs since day 1. 
 

if you can’t trade up for Cade I’d ideally like the trade down for Orlando for 5 and 8

Kuminga and Jalen Johnson

Kuminga and Kai Jones

Kuminga and Scottie Barnes 

I’d take any of those over just Mobley or Green at 3

Okoro’s best spot long term is at the 2 

ideally long term I’d love a roster like

Garland

Okoro

Kuminga

Jalen Johnson

Jarrett Allen

with Collin and Larry being top guys off the bench plus whoever we take in the first next year 

Edited July 15, 2021 by brownie man

[Texansfan713]

Just now, brownie man said:

I’ve been Kuminga to Cavs since day 1. 
 

if you can’t trade up for Cade I’d ideally like the trade down for Orlando for 5 and 8

Kuminga and Jalen Johnson

Kuminga and Kai Jones

Kuminga and Scottie Barnes 

I’d take any of those over just Mobley or Green at 3

 

barnes definitely wont be there at 8.  just mobley and green at 3 is better than kuminga and another player.

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

And again, I am not saying he is the same exact player, I would rather have Beal in a vacuum, but Sexton has value too, or should have value.  Neither wins, Sexton is ahead of where Beal was as a scorer at the same age by far.  Both have similar efficiencies and both are about as bad defensively.  I guess I would rather take Sexton for 4 years 27M a year to Beal for 5 years 39M each when Beal will be 32 at the end of the contract and Sexton will still be improving.  Sextons offensive numbers are very similar across the board to Beals from 2015-16 through 2018-19. Beal was a slightly better defender in that time but not by much.  I know people were clamoring over Beal more than the last two years. 

Beal has proven he can be a 23/4/4 guy on good efficiency for a playoff team. Sexton has only put up numbers on terrible teams while also being one of the worst defensive players in the league. 

And it isn't surprising that Beal's defensive numbers have dropped as his scoring has gone up. He has been asked to carry a scoring load that only 5 other players in recent NBA history have been asked too, Jordan, Harden, Iverson, Kobe. 

To say neither wins when we've seen Beal be a productive player on a playoff team is a flawed argument. It's literally like saying you'd rather have KAT over AD because he's cheaper, put up similar numbers, and neither has really won. There's clearly a difference in the caliber of player when comparing the two. 

They have similar efficiencies while Beal is literally scoring at a historical pace. I'd rather have the guy who was either a positive defender or very close to even through the first 7 years of his career and only had a drop off when he was asked to carry a 30+ ppg scoring load in consecutive seasons. As we've seen with Beal when he's on teams that he isn't expected to do things that only Kobe, Jordan, Iverson, and Harden have done he's not a horrible defender. Sexton has been one of the 5 worst defenders in each of his 3 seasons. 

If you're a rebuilding team I guess I could see why you'd prefer Sexton on a cheaper deal. But if you're a team that's looking to compete now with an established star, you take Beal 100/100 times. 

Because as I've said before you're making these assumptions with future projections in mind. But again, Wiggins had pretty much identical numbers to Sexton as a third year player on a bad team while being slightly better defensively. So is it safe to assume that Sexton is just going to make a huge leap?

[brownie man]

Just now, Texansfan713 said:

barnes definitely wont be there at 8.  just mobley and green at 3 is better than kuminga and another player.

I doubt it as well most likely he won’t get past OKC. 
 

But I disagree at least for the Cavs roster. Kuminga would be a much better fit. We are playa Okoro out of position at the 3. We’re never going to go far with him at the 3. 

Green is so overrated to me. Yes he’s a bucket no doubt, but what else does he do?

If you actually watch them play Kuminga does so much more and the stats show it as well. He’s got to show more consistency but he’s shown he can do everything. 
 

Talller Bigger and to me more well rounded athletically than Green. 
 

Green is a bucket but what else? We got that in Collin already. 

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

Okay, please tell me that you're not saying how big of a loss Hayward was to Utah, but then saying Sexton went to a team that had just went to 3 finals and returned a large group of their roster, completely omitting that one of the best NBA players of all time didn't leave for LA. We all know why the team was in the finals during that stretch of time, and that guy was gone from the team when Sexton was brought in. 

Also, where are you getting that I, or anyone else, is saying Sexton is more valuable than Beal from a trade aspect? I certainly have not said anything remotely close to that. 

FYI, the player I was referencing in the Collin comparison is Trae Young. a career -2.3 DPM guy. 

That's all true but Mitchell has legit carried the scoring load for Utah in the West and taken them to the playoffs in each of his 4 seasons. Didn't the Wizards just make the playoffs with like 33 wins this year in the  East? 

@Sllim Pickens has said he'd rather have Sexton than Beal because of his youth and cheaper contract. 

And yeah Trae is terrible on defense but other than his rookie season he has been a positive BPM player. And for their careers Trae Young is a -2.3 DBPM guy while Sexton is a -2.5 DBPM guy. 

Trae also does more than just score he's one of the best playmakers in the league. Over the last 2 seasons he has averaged 29.6 ppg/9.3 apg with a -2.3 DBPM | 25.3 ppg/9.4 apg with a -1.7 DBPM. During that same span Sexton has averaged 20.8 ppg/3.0 apg with a -2.1 DBPM | 24.3 ppg/4.4 apg with a -1.9 DBPM. 

 

[H2ThaIzzo]

4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's all true but Mitchell has legit carried the scoring load for Utah in the West and taken them to the playoffs in each of his 4 seasons. Didn't the Wizards just make the playoffs with like 33 wins this year in the  East? 

@Sllim Pickens has said he'd rather have Sexton than Beal because of his youth and cheaper contract. 

And yeah Trae is terrible on defense but other than his rookie season he has been a positive BPM player. And for their careers Trae Young is a -2.3 DBPM guy while Sexton is a -2.5 DBPM guy. 

Trae also does more than just score he's one of the best playmakers in the league. Over the last 2 seasons he has averaged 29.6 ppg/9.3 apg with a -2.3 DBPM | 25.3 ppg/9.4 apg with a -1.7 DBPM. During that same span Sexton has averaged 20.8 ppg/3.0 apg with a -2.1 DBPM | 24.3 ppg/4.4 apg with a -1.9 DBPM. 

 

you literally cherry picked his 2nd season when he had his highest ppg and apg. he also averaged about 5 t/o a game and shot 43% from the floor. For context, if Sexton had taken 20+ shots per night, and gotten the same whistles that Trae gets, I'm pretty sure he could average 29 a night as well. 

[brownie man]

Sexton is neither Bradley Beal or Donovan Mitchell 

I’m a Cavs fans Cleveland born and raised and I’ll let you aint a damn stat on the planet that will make him comparable to either player

 

He’s Lou Williams with starter minutes padding stats on a ****ty team. That’s it. I’m telling you. He doesn’t create for others and he’s a liability defensively. 
 

if we were actually good he wouldn’t have stats like this which people don’t understand, But we’re not good so he gets hella minutes and pads his stats as we lose. 
 

he should be a sixth man. Or a starting PG on a team who was a creator at a different position. 
 

Im telling you that you can deny it as much as you want but that’s Collin Sexton and the team that accepts his skill set will be better off for it

don't just be stats guys. actually watch the games 

Edited July 15, 2021 by brownie man

[NYRaider]

7 minutes ago, brownie man said:

I doubt it as well most likely he won’t get past OKC. 

But I disagree at least for the Cavs roster. Kuminga would be a much better fit. We are playa Okoro out of position at the 3. We’re never going to go far with him at the 3. 

Green is so overrated to me. Yes he’s a bucket no doubt, but what else does he do?

If you actually watch them play Kuminga does so much more and the stats show it as well. He’s got to show more consistency but he’s shown he can do everything. 

Talller Bigger and to me more well rounded athletically than Green. 

Green is a bucket but what else? We got that in Collin already. 

Yeah Barnes is a top 6 lock. 

If you're going to stick with Sexton/Garland then I personally think that Barnes is a better fit. If Okoro develops into the defender that most think he can, pairing him with Barnes would give the Cavaliers one of the better defensive wing duos in the league that could help cover up some of your small backcourts defensive inefficiencies. Plus Barnes is a really good playmaker so he'd take some pressure off of Garland and can play some small ball 5. 

Green flashed playmaking skills and has the tools to be a good defender. He averaged 3 assists and 1.5 steals as a secondary ball handler playing against professionals. Cade is praised as some amazing playmaker and he averaged like 3.5 assists/4.0 turnovers in the Big 12. 

Kuminga definitely has a very high ceiling but he also has a very low floor. He has a long ways to go as a scorer/shooter. 

Comparing Green to Kuminga is like comparing apples to oranges, they're very different players. It's like comparing Lavine to Siakam. 

Green is a bucket that has flashed playmaking ability as well as the potential to develop into a good defender. Having a 6'6" wing with elite length and athleticism is something that every team in the league is looking for, especially with his defensive upside. He'll be a much better defensive player than Sexton. 

[Sllim Pickens]

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's all true but Mitchell has legit carried the scoring load for Utah in the West and taken them to the playoffs in each of his 4 seasons. Didn't the Wizards just make the playoffs with like 33 wins this year in the  East? 

@Sllim Pickens has said he'd rather have Sexton than Beal because of his youth and cheaper contract. 

And yeah Trae is terrible on defense but other than his rookie season he has been a positive BPM player. And for their careers Trae Young is a -2.3 DBPM guy while Sexton is a -2.5 DBPM guy. 

Trae also does more than just score he's one of the best playmakers in the league. Over the last 2 seasons he has averaged 29.6 ppg/9.3 apg with a -2.3 DBPM | 25.3 ppg/9.4 apg with a -1.7 DBPM. During that same span Sexton has averaged 20.8 ppg/3.0 apg with a -2.1 DBPM | 24.3 ppg/4.4 apg with a -1.9 DBPM. 

 

I also said Beal is the better player, but in building a team, if neither will carry you, which Beal has shown he can't, I dont want that guy eating up 40M.  1 playoff series win in his career and he had a team around him.  Same with Mitchell, he may be scoring but they had two candidates for 6th man of the year, the DPOY, and a great PG running the show.  Don't act like Mitchell would lead the team in Cleveland to the second round of the playoffs.  

And Trae isn't a great comparison because like you said he does so much more in running the team.  Beal has similar rebounding/assist/turnover numbers as Sexton, he just hasn't done it long enough to get the same type of hype. 

Also, regarding your comment about defense while scoring 30 a game, Steph, Harden, Iverson, Kobe and MJ all had positive DBPM while scoring 30.  They all stayed consistent in their defense while Beal has got significantly worse. 

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

you literally cherry picked his 2nd season when he had his highest ppg and apg. he also averaged about 5 t/o a game and shot 43% from the floor. For context, if Sexton had taken 20+ shots per night, and gotten the same whistles that Trae gets, I'm pretty sure he could average 29 a night as well. 

Scoring numbers aside over their 3 years in the league Trae has been a better defender while also averaging 9 assists per game in comparison to Sexton's 3 assists per game. 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 minute ago, brownie man said:

Sexton is neither Bradley Beal or Donovan Mitchell 

I’m a Cavs fans Cleveland born and raised and I’ll let you aint a damn stat on the planet that will make him comparable to either player

 

He’s Lou Williams with starter minutes padding stats on a ****ty team. That’s it. I’m telling you. He doesn’t create for others and he’s a liability defensively. 
 

if we were actually good he wouldn’t have stats like this which people don’t understand, But we’re not good so he gets hella minutes and pads his stats as we lose. 
 

he should be a sixth man. Or a starting PG on a team who was a creator at a different position. 
 

Im telling you that you can deny it as much as you want but that’s Collin Sexton and the team they accepts his skill set will be better off for it

don't just be stats guys. actually watch the games 

My point is Beal is Lou Williams with starter minutes.  Its also why I said I would rather have a discounted Sexton to Beal when you get the same output in wins.