THE DUKE Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: Its a different way to analyze a player. If I am drafting or playing against Davion Mitchell, I know not to count on him being a 3pt threat most of the time. If he hits a couple early then you adjust for his 1 out of 20 games. For Green we have an extremely small sample size, so yes its hard to remove games but is still valuable to review it multiple ways. He had three games in which he went 0-6, 0-7, and 0-7 and two games in which he went 5-6 and 6-8. That takes out a third of his season, but also shows you more of what to expect on a regular basis out of the gate. Without those games, he was a 39% shooter in the other 10 games and relatively consistent around that number. So in the league you expect him to most nights provide you with 40% shooting from three but will obviously have some better and worse games. Its a small sample size so looking at a per game basis is helpful and sheds light to potential if you can reduce those 0 for nights. Yes, and that's a correct way to look at statistical normalization, removing the top end and bottom. The examples above were only removing their one side, which is what I laughed at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, THE DUKE said: Outliers aren't 10-30% of a season. Outliers would be 1-2 away from the norm. Sure you remove those 7 best games, then if you want to normalize, you should also take out the worst shooting games as well. It's cherry picking otherwise. Are outliers a 7% stretch over the course of a 4 year career, that all just so happened to take place within a 35 or so day period? And doesn't the fact that he struggled from the FT during his entire career also raise questions about his 3P shooting? If you remove his 7 best 3P shooting games and his 7 worst 3P shooting games, he made 0.9 3's per game at 35% clip over the course of his other 80. Green and Mitchell's cases are completely different because Green has a 15 game sample size, 4 games he shot the ball poorly, the other 11 he didn't. Mitchell has a 94 game sample size, 7 games, which are all in a relatively short span he shot the ball well, the other 87 he didn't. Even if you remove Green's 4 terrible shooting games and his 4 best shooting games he still hit 2 3's at a 38% clip over the other 7. From NBA distance, as the youngest player on the court, against NBA role players/fringe roster players. Mitchell's best shooting performances came when he was 2-3 years older than most of his opponents, from NCAA range, against Big 12 schools. Edited July 2, 2021 by NYRaider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Also for some context to all of this @THE DUKE when Mitchell was 19 he was hitting 0.4 3s per game at a 28% clip in the SEC. When Jalen Green was 19 he was hitting 2 3's per game at a 37% clip in the G-League. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 With Mitchell going to be a 24 year old rookie it's also important to note that in the last 20 drafts there have only been 9 players his age drafted in the lottery. Only 1 of those players has developed into a solid starter (Buddy Hield) and only 1 of those players has developed into a solid role player (Cam Johnson). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seminoles1 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Is #23 and #24 too much for #17? I'd like Christopher, but hopefully after trading down a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 39 minutes ago, seminoles1 said: Is #23 and #24 too much for #17? I'd like Christopher, but hopefully after trading down a little. Probably unless Houston just absolutely loves someone on the board at #17. Which I could see if someone like Ziaire Williams is still on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texansfan713 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, seminoles1 said: Is #23 and #24 too much for #17? I'd like Christopher, but hopefully after trading down a little. thats about right. I wouldnt do it if Im Houston though. Draft is real deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 FWIW a Jazz insider that's supposedly plugged into the front office has hinted a bunch that he thinks we're a lock to take Roko Prkacin at #30 if he's on the board. An 18 year old 6'9" 210 (7'0" wingspan) combo forward from Croatia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 NYRaider Big Board V 1.0 (Post Combine) 1. Jalen Green | SG | G-League 2. Cade Cunningham | GF | Oklahoma State 3. Jonathan Kuminga | F | G-League 4. Evan Mobley | FC | USC 5. Keon Johnson | GF | Tennessee 6. Scottie Barnes | F | Florida State 7. Jalen Suggs | PG | Gonzaga 8. Kai Jones | FC | Texas 9. Alperen Sengun | F | Turkey 10. Moses Moody | GF | Arkansas 11. Josh Giddy | GF | Australia 12. Ziarie Williams | GF | Stanford 13. James Bouknight | SG | UConn 14. Davion Mitchell | PG | Baylor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Guys that I'm starting to like more: Jalen Green, Keon Johnson, Kai Jones, Jonathan Kuminga, Scottie Barnes Guys who my opinion has remained relatively the same: Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Moses Moody Guys who I'm starting not to love: Josh Giddy, Jalen Suggs, Davion Mitchell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Being at #30 doesn't give us a ton of flexibility but would be happy with Trey Murphy, JT Thor, and Roko Prkacin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 @roger murdock watched some more Jalen Green this morning. And yeah, I'm taking him #1 and not even thinking twice about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Joe Wieskamp announced that he's hiring an agent and staying in the draft. 6'7" 215 with a 6'11" wingspan and a 42" vertical. Shot the 3 at a 46% clip on 4.6 attempts per game last year at Iowa. He also averaged 1.46 PPP on catch and shoot opportunities which was 96th percentile in the NCAA last year and finished 60% of his attempts at the rim. During the NBA Combine's final scrimmage he scored 26 points (6/7 from 3), had 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Not sure if I'd take him in the first round but would 100% take a flier on him early in the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDez Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 10 hours ago, NYRaider said: NYRaider Big Board V 1.0 (Post Combine) 1. Jalen Green | SG | G-League 2. Cade Cunningham | GF | Oklahoma State 3. Jonathan Kuminga | F | G-League 4. Evan Mobley | FC | USC 5. Keon Johnson | GF | Tennessee 6. Scottie Barnes | F | Florida State 7. Jalen Suggs | PG | Gonzaga 8. Kai Jones | FC | Texas 9. Alperen Sengun | F | Turkey 10. Moses Moody | GF | Arkansas 11. Josh Giddy | GF | Australia 12. Ziarie Williams | GF | Stanford 13. James Bouknight | SG | UConn 14. Davion Mitchell | PG | Baylor Is there any chance Green actually goes before Cunningham or Kuminga before Mobley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, DirtyDez said: Is there any chance Green actually goes before Cunningham or Kuminga before Mobley? Unlikely. But Troy Weaver (Pistons GM) was instrumental in the Thunder taking Russell Westbrook #4 overall when most had him outside of the top 10 and it was considered a massive reach at that point. That worked out pretty well for them and I think he understands the value/potential of having a freak athletic wing that can get buckets. There have also been a few reports that the Pistons really like Green as a prospect. So the only way I could see it happening would be if we saw a similar situation to the Luka/Trae swap. Where Detroit takes Cunningham then trades him to Houston for Green and other draft assets. We've seen other situations like this happen in the past, most recently with the Celtics trading back from #1 to #3 so the 76ers could take Fultz and the Celtics got their guy in Tatum. I think Mobley is likely a lock to go top 3 at this point. But Cleveland has reportedly been monitoring Kuminga closely in the pre-draft process and he fits better with their current core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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