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Playoffs - Wild Card Round


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Just now, ThatJerkDave said:

What I have a very difficult time wrapping my head around is why I should switch because no matter what, I am really making a 1/2 choice because Monte is going to show me a door with a goat after my first choice.  It tells me nothing about my choice, only that I didn't choose one of the goats with my first choice, but I already know that I can't choose both goats because I only get one choice.  

2/3 times you'll pick a goat, he'll show you other goat

You switch, you win

You stay, you lose

1/3 times you'll the car, he'll show you one goat

You switch, you lose

You stay, you win

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3 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

You are supposed to switch, but I have never really understood why.  I don't like statistics tricks like that.  It is supposed to increase your odds from 33% to something.  

say we have:

1.  Car

2.  Goat

3.  Goat

I choose door 1.  Monte shows me door 2 has a goat.  Probability says I am supposed to switch (unfortunately I get goat in this example) because there is a 66% chance that I picked goat first.  What I have a very difficult time wrapping my head around is why I should switch because no matter what, I am really making a 1/2 choice because Monte is going to show me a door with a goat after my first choice.  It tells me nothing about my choice, only that I didn't choose one of the goats with my first choice, but I already know that I can't choose both goats because I only get one choice.  

 

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1 minute ago, HeresAGuy said:

I love Mike Thomas like I love my wife, and I love my wife.   IM A GOOD MAN!!!

Well when we play him, we're going to take him away like your little sister took your last Oreo and that Oreo wasn't a regular Oreo, it was a limited edition or seasonal Oreo that they're going to take off the shelves next week...

letterkenny GIF by CraveTV

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