Ward4HOF Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 On 3/25/2021 at 8:38 AM, warfelg said: The answer to me is simple: the day of 'reckoning' is coming for a rebuild, so start Mason and suck for a year. We ain't winning a Super Bowl with Ben, all we're doing at this point it putting off the inevitable. We obviously are looking at this from different vantage points; I see a much improved Cap situation next year, which will give us the opportunity to compete for a decent FA QB, or possibly, work out a trade for one...who knows? This season, however, we would have been forced to do it 'your way', with Mason at the helm. Ben had a 94.5 Rating, 33 TDs against 10 INTs this season; regardless of what you feel about our DVOA opponents, Ben was not the reason we failed this season, nor was he the primary reason we were 21 points in the hole in the 1st Qtr...Thanks to Pouncey's snap, and yet, another dropped catchable pass by Diontae Johnson, which ended up in the arms of a Browns' defender, 14 of the 21 points in that 1st Qtr were attributed to other players' failures. I know you said you were not pointing to that playoff loss, as being the reason you want Ben gone, but my point is, who knows what would have happened had we put away the Browns, as was expected. I'd much prefer to have a competitive season next year, then either, grab our QB of the future via FA/Trade next offseason, when the Cap situation is much better, or, select a QB this year in the draft, and let him develop for a year behind Ben. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 I'm sorry but no no no no. Bad teams look at just raw stats and taking that as good vs bad. Hell Peyton Mannings next to last year was 39/15 with a 101.5 rating. When you look at that you have to look at the context: NYG - 25th Den - 29th Hou - 24th Philly - 28th Cleve - 18th Tenn - 14th Balt - 7th Dal - 23rd Cin - 30th Jax - 31st Wash - 16th Buff - 4th Indy - 10th So lets break it down and I'll even give you top 20 as good defenses and 21 and lower as bad: 1-20: 13-6 (16-10 including the playoff game) 21 and lower: 20-3 Just out of curiosity here's how each area did in TD-INT at the end of the season: 1-20: 156-82 21 and lower: 200-65 So the ratios to compare: 1-20: Ben - 1.6:1 Teams gave up: 1.9:1 21 and lower: Ben - 6.6:1 Teams gave up 3.1:1 So lets see: Hmmmm it's true, Ben feasted on bottom 10 defensive teams making his raw stats look better than they were. He actually performed worse against top 20 defenses than they performed on average. Yet for some reason you think Ben is gonna have a good 2021 and play in 2022 as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 (edited) Your context is still missing context, as I am sure mine will now too. Ben against your top 20 listing: 1.8 TD to 1 INT per game Ben against top 10: 2.0 TD to .75 INT per game So he was actually better against the top competition vs the middle? Or in a game by game sample size does 1 to 2 games knock off the system and allow us to nitpick to fit narratives? Not saying you went through to pick your narrative, but just examples of how things change. The Titans and the Bills game represents the only multi-interception games of the top 20. They account for a 2 to 2.5 ratio -- which increases his interception number pretty drastically considering in the other 5 games he threw 2 interception and [1.8 to 0.4 ratio in those games] The Browns game - where we throttled them to the point of not needing Ben - accounts for 1 TD (scored 6 TDs on the day) which lowers all other TD numbers from 2 to 1.8. WFT and the Titans both had tip ball interceptions. Tip balls are a bad QB number IMO, but what happens once that ball rockets in the air is more of a guess and less of a "bad throw interception". The countless dropped balls during the Balt, WFT, and Buf games severely damage numbers like these without being the QB's issue. Ben's 2020 Season he was a 2.2 TD to 0.65 INT rate. Broken down to 2.4 to 1.5 in the first 10 games and 1.8. to 1 in the last 6. His last 5 years prior to his injury season: 2.125 to 1 1.86 to 0.75 2.07 to 0.92 1.75 to 1.33 2.0 to 0.56 For a grand total of 1.97 to 0.93 in a 5 season span. So even judging just his WORST 6 game stretch last year at 1.8 to 1.....why do we think he has completely fallen off the face of the earth when even his worst game numbers fall into the range he has been in the last 6 years based on these ratio's? If we consider, efficiency wise, that he wasn't as bad as the last 6 games and he wasn't as good as the first 10 games we get......Ben's Career averages. Edited March 30, 2021 by Dcash4 Corrected incorrect math Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, warfelg said: 1-20: 13-6 (16-10 including the playoff game) ---- 1-20: Ben - 1.6:1 Teams gave up: 1.9:1 I thought something seemed wrong about my math in comparison to yours....I might be missing something, but this is what I get: 13 to 6 against the top 20 is 7 games. (TEN, CLE, Balt x2, WFT, BUF, IND) That equals 1.857 TD's per and 0.857 INT per. Against the top 20 comparison: TD's - Ben: 1.857 (rounded to 1.9) - Them: 1.9 INT - Ben: 0.857 (rounded to .9) - Them: 1 So Ben is exactly in line with everyone else against the top teams but takes a giant leap against the bad ones. Isn't that.....isn't that good? Edited March 30, 2021 by Dcash4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Go ahead and remove RB from your "needs" list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: Go ahead and remove RB from your "needs" list. I would not go that far lmao, Ballage is not a lock to make the roster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 We are Ballage’s what 4th team in the past year? He had like 3-4 decent games playing for a team with a really good passing game last year but has been complete garbage outside of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, Dcash4 said: I thought something seemed wrong about my math in comparison to yours....I might be missing something, but this is what I get: 13 to 6 against the top 20 is 7 games. (TEN, CLE, Balt x2, WFT, BUF, IND) That equals 1.857 TD's per and 0.857 INT per. Against the top 20 comparison: TD's - Ben: 1.857 (rounded to 1.9) - Them: 1.9 INT - Ben: 0.857 (rounded to .9) - Them: 1 So Ben is exactly in line with everyone else against the top teams but takes a giant leap against the bad ones. Isn't that.....isn't that good? I used the 16:10 ratio that’s why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, warfelg said: I used the 16:10 ratio that’s why. That ratio is 2 TD's to 1.25 INTs 16 / 8 = 2, 10 / 8= 1.25. Also proves my sample size argument in the post above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said: Yep you might as well lock it in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, AFF said: Yep you might as well lock it in. I don't really understand why this signing makes it sure. We have Snell and McFarland as backups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CKSteeler Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 They don't touch RB and Ballage runs for 2k behind Finney as the full time starter. Book it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Season best of 300 yards? Yeah. This is a flyer signing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 34 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said: I don't really understand why this signing makes it sure. We have Snell and McFarland as backups. It’s not the only reason it makes it sure, but it’s more evidence. I think this signing completely rules out any chance Conner returns, thus making Etienne or Harris more likely. Art Rooney being adamant about fixing the running game, the blatant interest in Harris/Etienne, 0 interest in bringing Conner back even when the market is super dry for him are the other pieces of evidence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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