Spinning Tires: Steelers 2021 Offseason and Beyond...

[warfelg]

16 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

That's two questions 😉

While I find this to be a having your cake and eating it too scenario....I will respond to your post with a post of your own. 

Because what you have already said that you would "loved nothing more than to see" you are getting. 

Run game: X's and O's aside, 3 of our 5 offensive line positions are in a better place as run blockers. Dotson is an upgrade to Feiler, a health Decastro is an upgrade to the injured one, and Banner back and healthy is a boost at RT to Chucks. I fully expect C (or LT) to be a first two round pick and immediately we have 4 out of 5 positions improved on the OLine -- all with multiple years left to build around (I see Decastro as an extension candidate). There's a very good chance we draft either a TE or a RB highly as well. Neither excite me because of the way the positions are in general, but with our WR core together -- check that good run game box as a realistic solution. And it doesn't have to take years to accomplish, and helps in a 2-3 year window. 

On defense: We have three all-pro players split between the three levels of the field. TJ and Minkah will be Steelers for life. Book that. Cam still has 2-3 years of being an extremely good player. As does Tuitt who will see another contract. Bush has all the qualities of a pro bowl player with a baseline of being good. Cam is solid and Edmunds is a strong role player. Maybe we take a step back this year from what our top, healthy squad was last year -- but you cannot tell me the baseline of a really good unit -- for years to come -- isn't there. Tinker and add in a 2-3 year window. 

Improved run game, maintained the core of the defense (things you said you wanted). You don't need the solution to the QB question this year if it's not there and reaching for that only limits the resources you have to build the team around that incoming player. That's why I say you want your cake and eat it to. You WANT the QB plan while you have the QB but you also WANT to build the team around for the next QB. Both take assets -- pick your poison. 

As I said before, project two starters (C and RB are my guess, and realistic based on all the mocks) this year, spend FA on CB/LT/TE as needed when we have the money next year, and use the 22 draft to either sell farm to get your QB or continue to add talent around a stopgap and sell in 2023. So as you mentioned with selling to get your next QB...I think we are set up very well for that. We have a young core, we have some really good players, and we will have the availability in 2022 or 2023 to make significant moves to get the QB. 

Hey look. I planned for the future, all inside of a 2-3 year window. 

 

If you think that's all it will take to set up and you feel like you answered my questions good for you.

 

This is Ben's team.  And I'm almost willing to bet that he'll be back in 2022 too and we'll be average then too.

[August4th]

 

[Dcash4]

39 minutes ago, warfelg said:

This is Ben's team.  And I'm almost willing to bet that he'll be back in 2022 too and we'll be average then too

Okay? And when Ben's not on the team it wont be his anymore? 

What part of the players that I listed were "Ben Only"? Is our oline run blocking Ben only? Is our defense -- in anyway -- Ben only?

Now you're just throwing the roster building discussion to the side to say "I dont want Ben". So we can leave it at that. 

Edited March 29, 2021 by Dcash4

[Dcash4]

 

Bouchette says that he "heard something that I wouldn't write about because I wasn't confident enough, but let me tell it to you on the radio" and Dunlap has a friend who is a neighbor of Big Al. 

The Pittsburgh beat is just....its just the best. 

 

 

[warfelg]

16 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

Okay? And when Ben's not on the team it wont be his anymore? 

What part of the players that I listed were "Ben Only"? Is our oline run blocking Ben only? Is our defense -- in anyway -- Ben only?

Now you're just throwing around the roster building discussion to the side to say "I dont want Ben". So we can leave it at that. 

Ok some of the more nuanced conversation then:

OL - Nothing is ready for the run game right now other than Dodson. You are banking on DDC just not being healthy rather than declining at 32 years old.  After this season DeCastro will be older than Faneca than we let him go and 1 year younger than Foster when he retired.  So what makes you think he's worth extending rather than declining.  Chucks Okorafor is about to be an URFA, and while serviceable last year, pretty much played to replacement level at RT and was a slight negative in the run game.  Zach Banner only had about 3 quarters against an average defense at RT and occasional snaps as someone reporting eligible.  I mean, right now their even trying to sign Big Al, meaning even if they were to draft a LT in rounds 1 or 2, you won't know what you have in them.  BJ Finney and JC Haussenaur have shown to be ok in spot starts, but who knows what they are as a full time player, and with Finney he was on 2 teams last year and cut again mostly because he wasn't good.

So even if you want to say that you feel comfortable there, it's still 2 unknown positions (LT/C) and 2 with players who could walk (RG/RT).  

WR - Similar story here where we brought back Juju.  I would still argue, Ben or no Ben, the more prudent thing would have been to let him walk.  No not because some think (wrongly) that it cost us Nelson (who's unsigned FWIW) but rather now we got future dead cap (which yes is always a problem, it's just a matter of how big) and it potentially cost us a compensatory pick.

But the additional problem it causes is in 2022 we might need 3 new WR's in addition to potential other needs if Juju gets a better offer elsewhere, Washington walks, and Johnson continues being JAG with wiggle.  So in addition to potential 2022 offensive line things that need to be worked out, we got potential issues with the WR's.

TE - I mean, nothing you can do about Vannimal retiring.  I got the sense this was possible when he made statements about driving from his farm to have to get tested daily on what was supposed to be a game week, just to turn out to be a bye week.  He sounded like someone who has had enough with the grind.  

Ebron just reworked his contract that saved some cap, but the details of that haven't hit yet.  Like some other guys, I feel this is a 'fake years' extension meant to send some cap out into 2022.  Beyond Ebron we don't have much in the chamber to speak about.  And I doubt they do anything worth while at the position whether they draft or bring back JJ.  Mostly because we haven't been much of a 21 or 22 team with Ben the last decade.  

RB - I mean...yea we got to see here.  But teams that set themselves up well for a rookie contract QB to come in and do well either have 1 stud RB or a stable of good runners.  We have neither as of this moment.

QB - Do we really need to go into this?  Mason didn't look great when he played (I'd contest he looked passable in week 17) so what's his future?  Haskins looked god awful in Washington, and without any game snaps you expect anything?  Oh yea and as of right now we have 0 QB's under contract in 2022. (Well we "have" Ben with his fake contract)

Over on the defensive side, the defense was studly in 2019, slipped in 2020, loses starters, and you think it's going to be fine?  I wish I had that confidence.  Yes I think Highsmith will be better than Dupree, but the front certainly looked different without him.  Bush being back will certainly help, and while I liked Spillane, and think he's fine with Bush, we could do much better.  We lose Nelson and Hilton at the CB position, pushing a guy I thought was good in the slot into the edge where I thought he was a bit exposed (size and long speed).  Additionally I think we could easily upgrade over Edmunds at SS.

So defensively you have to do things with Tuitt (contract expires in 2022 and he's in line for a big payday), Heyward (yes I know he has 3 years left, but his last two year cap hits are $22.4 mil, which is just absurd), Watt, pick up Bush's 5th year option ($13mil jesus, but more importantly it guarantees his $6mil in 2021), Haden, Fitzpatrick (5th year option $11mil), and Edmunds ($7mil).  

Even there if you want to argue potentially having an elite defense, you got a bunch of guys who's contracts are about to expire or are majorly over market for age because of restructures so you would be redoing the entire offense while hoping to move forward.

 

So while on a surface level you might look and say "oh this is easy" it's really complicated.  You are looking at 16 positions of significance to potentially have to replace (QB1, QB2, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR3, LT, OC, RG, RT, TE1, TE2, DL, ILB, CB1, CB3, S[?]) (yes I know I listed 17, I left QB2 out of the 'of significance' part).  And your plan right now relies on a few draft picks and holding onto guys past their prime.  Let's say out of the first 3 rounds you get an OT, OC, RB that you can count on...you still got so much more to go for all of this.

Additionally people love to point out about how much money we have next year.  We only have 24 players under contract.  Even if we come out of this draft with 5 players sticking, that's 29 players.  The "cap space" (doesn't count accelerators in Ben and Juju's contracts) has $84,374,253.  Accelerate their dead money and that's $72ish mil (don't feel like doing the exact math).  This also doesn't include Ebron's reworking and Alualu's contract.  So maybe we can assume $68mil and that's being a bit generous on what those two do.  Let's use Miles Garretts contract as a guide for TJ Watt, and maybe front load rather than backload to take advantage of the cap number, and you are down to $44mil.  I'm willing to bet that Minkah waits for Jamal Adams contract numbers but let's use Justin Simmons in the mean time, and now we're at $36mil in cap space with 20 players to get.  Account $6.5 mil for draft picks (let's just say 9 picks here and 7 make the team).  So that's $30 mil for 13 players.  Now that might sound like a lot, until you look at the potential positions we need.

Let's say you cross LT, OC, RB1 off the list from the 2021 draft.  QB1, QB2, RB2, WR1/WR3 (potentially), RG, RT, TE1, TE2, DL, ILB, CB1, CB3 all need to be replaced at a starting level (save QB2 and TE2) via that $30mil and 7 picks that make the team.  

And at first blush, 2022 FA looks good.  Robinson, Lockett, Godwin, Juju, Adams in FA at WR? Sweet!  But Juju might be the only one that doesn't ruin that remaining cap space. Sherriff and DeCastro are about it at OG, and the Steelers generally don't sign FA's over 30, and as I stated above I think DeCastro is declining and will be 32/33. CB is looking just as rough unless you give Lattimore a HUGE payday (Saints should have cap issues in 2022 as well).  Desmond King would be out there as well and could be worth is.  So lets say out of all of that you just really overpay for Lattimore and Godwin, then fill out a bunch of other positions with cheaper guys:

QB - 2022 Draft pick

RB - 2021 Draft pick

WR - Godwin, Claypool, Johnson

TE - 2022/2021 draft pick, cheap FA

OL - 2021 Draft pick, Dodson, 2021 draft pick, 2022 draft pick/FA, Banner

DL - Heyward, Alualu, Tuitt

OLB - Hightower, Watt, 2021/22 draft pick as depth

ILB - Bush, Spillane, 2021/22 draft pick

CB - Lattimore, Sutton, pick/signing

S - Fitzpatrick, Edmunds

Now I'll admit, that defense has a chance to be nasty, and the WR core looks good, but there's still a whole lot of holes in it.  

And you might be asking youself, how would it look any different without Ben in tow?  WR group might look different.  Maybe we sign a different OT in this FA period with the money that Ben and Juju combined to put together, maybe it's Corey Linsley at OC and one other question mark gets checked off and changes the draft.  Maybe instead of cutting Nelson, we cut both Nelson and Haden; freeing up money to keep Hilton, keep Sutton, and we still worry about a DB, but we're looking at a boundary CB.  Baybe we sign Griffin then (never know with his near $6mil year 1 cap hit), which takes almost 2 spots of worry in 2022 off the table and ensures the defense is in a good position.  

How does that let 2022 be more interesting after a down 2021?  Well you might be looking at $20mil in usable FA cap space.  Well maybe we still do the Godwin thing, but now we do Cam Robinson in FA at LT.  That allows the 2021 pick to either play RG or RT if they don't play much in 2021.  Or if Big Al is back in 2021, and we don't pick a 2021 OT early, we now use a 2022 pick on an easier to replace position.  Additionally maybe we end up with compensatory picks from Juju, Dupree, Feiler; meaning we have 10 picks in 2022.  3rd for Dupree, 5th for Juju, 5th for Feiler.  Meaning if you want to move up for a QB, you can feel free to add in a 3rd and a 5th and don't lose out majorly in picks. Alternatively it gives space to move up in a later round (3rd/4th) with the extra pick.  And maybe we still have space for Goedert, Gesecki, Howard, Njoku at TE.

So in this plan 2022:

QB - 2021/22 Draft pick

RB - 2021 pick

WR - Godwin, Claypool, Johnson

TE - Njoku

OL - Robinson, Dodson, Linsley, 2021/22 Draft pick, Banner/2022 pick

DL - Heyward, Alualu, Tuitt

OLB - Hightower, Watt, 2021/22 draft pick as depth

ILB - Bush, Spillane, 2021/22 draft pick

CB - Griffin, Sutton, Hilton

S - Fitzpatrick, Edmunds

Now yes in some of these FA things players got to come here.  But far less holes in the 2nd option due to cap space on a few changes made.

[43M]

3 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

 

Bouchette says that he "heard something that I wouldn't write about because I wasn't confident enough, but let me tell it to you on the radio" and Dunlap has a friend who is a neighbor of Big Al. 

The Pittsburgh beat is just....its just the best. 

 

 

Douchette is trash.    

If not for my eternal hatred of Mark Madden,  he would be my least favorite Pittsburgh sports personality.

[DR43]

What do you all think of this mock draft: 

trade 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for #14 overall.  We also get a 4th rounder.

1. Mac Jones QB
4a. Micael Carter RB
4b. Benjamin St Juste CB
4c. Kenny Yeboah, TE
6a. Grant Stuard LB
6b. Naquan Jones NT
7. Pier Olivier Lestage OL

[bigben07MVP]

33 minutes ago, DR43 said:

What do you all think of this mock draft: 

trade 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for #14 overall.  We also get a 4th rounder.

1. Mac Jones QB
4a. Micael Carter RB
4b. Benjamin St Juste CB
4c. Kenny Yeboah, TE
6a. Grant Stuard LB
6b. Naquan Jones NT
7. Pier Olivier Lestage OL

Yea I’m out. 

[Dcash4]

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

OL - Nothing is ready for the run game right now other than Dodson. You are banking on DDC just not being healthy rather than declining at 32 years old.

Per usual, War. I appreciate the detail. I don’t think we need to go that deep (a la actually picking FA’s and the like in future years) but I always like the work. I’m not gonna touch on everything but I will on the things that make me optimistic. 

I don’t agree on the only thing being ready in the run game is Dotson. Banner was a good blocking “TE” for us, which is what makes me believe in his baseline run blocking the most. He is also at one of our secretly less touted positions of strength in finding talent. We have been pretty good at tackles and he has followed the mold of “next man up, #3 tackle in big sets” to starter - which on our track record makes me feel good about his chances of being at best average (because, realistically, I only care to believe you are average to good).

Beachum, Villy, Fieler, now banner. The guys that have filled that role well have gone on to be decent starters. I think Banner will too. 

In terms of Decastro, I think last years injury riddled, pandemicaly effected season is the odd ball. Faneca went on to have two solid years with the Jets. Foster was a solid player, but never was as skilled as DD, so the drop off is more substantial. Faneca actually fits my narrative because he went on to be the highly paid vet on a team of young talent. DD would be the only high contract on the line for a few years so I think overpaying for a “average to good” vet for consistency is okay in the circumstance to off put the need to replace the position. 

Again, my goal is 2-3 here. I think he can fit that, provided he is healthy and allow us time to hope we hit golf with non-premium draft assets or non-premium FA before needing to spend premium assets to replace him as a starter.

The only other impactful player I had already over 30 in the 2-3 year window was Cam. And he was just named a second team all-pro last year. So I think his quality of play is expected to remain “average to good” in that window and follow the Decastro model of asset replacement. 

So I see 14 guys that I would qualify as average to good starters that are young enough and should be on the roster over the next 2-3 years - and that’s as we sit right now before the draft. If we get lucky and get 2 more this year, have funds to spend to fill gaps in FA...I just don’t see this roster being that far off.

I know people are gonna see “14 players” and think what the hell is he smoking that’s not enough guys...but when you consider nearly 70% of your 53 man roster will turn over in a draft cycle (4 years), 26% being “good” for that time is pretty darn impactful. 

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, 43M said:

Douchette is trash.    

If not for my eternal hatred of Mark Madden,  he would be my least favorite Pittsburgh sports personality.

I got a really good deal on the Athletic site, so I took a chance. A lot of the guys I follow on Twitter post there and I can never read the articles so I figured why not for $1. 

Then I realized the Steelers sections is Kaboly and Bouchette....thats.....thats it. 

Turns out I like Kaboly, but I will not be continuing my subscription when 50% of the articles are trash just from the jump. 

[warfelg]

8 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

I don’t agree on the only thing being ready in the run game is Dotson. Banner was a good blocking “TE” for us, which is what makes me believe in his baseline run blocking the most. He is also at one of our secretly less touted positions of strength in finding talent. We have been pretty good at tackles and he has followed the mold of “next man up, #3 tackle in big sets” to starter - which on our track record makes me feel good about his chances of being at best average (because, realistically, I only care to believe you are average to good).

Beachum, Villy, Fieler, now banner. The guys that have filled that role well have gone on to be decent starters. I think Banner will too. 

Well a few things on this bit:

As I alluded to, we've only seen him in situational ball.  We haven't seen him in every down play yet.  Maybe he meets that average to good area you are ok with.  And if he only plays RT, average to good is ok.  But with the way defenses in the NFL are trending, it's time for us to step into "elite" being what you want at one of the tackles and "a solid good" at the other.  You can have an average to good player on your line.  But you can't get away with a line full of that.  I'd point out to Pittsburgh West for what a line of "average to good" gets you (that's Arizona in case you didn't remember).

Beachum has had a decent NFL career, but has always look to be replaced.  Villy has been fine, but always had this air of "but you can do better" to him.  I'll give him credit of he never gives up.  Feiler...lets not go down that road.  I think we did ourselves and him a disservice ing moving him.  Banner....like I said, yet to be seen.  

Quote

In terms of Decastro, I think last years injury riddled, pandemicaly effected season is the odd ball. Faneca went on to have two solid years with the Jets. Foster was a solid player, but never was as skilled as DD, so the drop off is more substantial. Faneca actually fits my narrative because he went on to be the highly paid vet on a team of young talent. DD would be the only high contract on the line for a few years so I think overpaying for a “average to good” vet for consistency is okay in the circumstance to off put the need to replace the position. 

Not that PFF is the holy grail but 2017 - 91, 2018 - 74.8, 2019 - 71.0, 2020 - 64.1

Now I know this is a few years old, and it's B/R, but the substance of how they calculate is sound and solid:

Quote

Offensive Line

We expect offensive linemen to be rocks of consistent production, and they are:

The ruler-straight floor likely has to do with AV's limitations on measuring offensive linemen. If you started 14-plus games there's only so little you can be part of your team's production. Also, it's tempting to say the eerily flat average AV is due to the huge numbers of "offensive linemen" (remember, five start per team), not consistency.

Yet, peak AV moves the way we expect it: a big jump in the second year, a steady climb to year seven, a drop-off to a plateau from year eight to year 12 and then another big drop-off and decline.

Meanwhile, average AV climbs slowly, resolutely upward, peaking in year 11 and then following the big drop-off to year 13. Let's check the experience distribution:

This is classic. A huge jump in qualifying starters from year one to year two, a peak at year four and then an almost-spookily consistent year-over-year decrease in qualifiers until year 15.

As the year-by-year charts have been more useful (and we've charted the more-volatile skill position careers), we'll stop looking for a "magic age" and focus on years of service.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1683775-when-does-age-catch-up-to-nfl-players

DeCastro fits the about to hit his peak and then drop.

 

But I'll add in something else.  Let's say you pay DeCastro on a 4 year deal, $56 mil (AAV $14mil) which is the "going rate" for a top 5 NFL guard (and likely what he will command).  You are paying for him to decline through the contract.  Meanwhile, as seen with Foster and Dodson, and Finney and Haussenaur, we can actually find better offensive guards through the draft and URFA than OT's.  So lets say you spend a 4th on a RG in this draft.  Now you have a starting level quality guard (maybe Ben Cleveland) who can be that good-great rather than average-good and save you $12mil a year along with improvement year to year as opposed to decline.

[Dcash4]

7 minutes ago, warfelg said:

You can have an average to good player on your line.  But you can't get away with a line full of that.

I can agree with that to an extent, but I don’t like to go around handing out higher grades than that on projection. I think Dotson can be a pro bowler...but I like settling for a baseline of average to good. It’s the same way I feel about Bush and Highsmith, but I’ll temper expectations lower to keep myself more consistent. 

Maybe Banner, who’s physicality is off the charts, can be an all-pro. Maybe the C we draft will be the all pro or if we take a T in round 1. I don’t know, but as long as we have 4-5 guys that are average to good, I like the chances of at least being a quality squad. Every step even one person takes up the ladder (average to good to great to elite) just makes you that much better. 

12 minutes ago, warfelg said:

You are paying for him to decline through the contract. 

I’m okay with this to the extent that no one else would really be on a big contract on the line during that timeframe. And honestly I’m perfectly fine with your idea to find a guard lower and save the money, as it happens more. It would be a good reason not to extend him until training camp to see what you come away with. 

But if we didn’t get anyone, personally I’m okay with paying him the declining premium knowing we have another year or two of okay play to find his replacement and can cut out the last 1-2 years if we are able to. I’d rather pay for the consistency of knowing rather than taking a chance and it not working out in a way. 

[brushmyhair]

2 hours ago, DR43 said:

What do you all think of this mock draft: 

trade 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for #14 overall.  We also get a 4th rounder.

1. Mac Jones QB
4a. Micael Carter RB
4b. Benjamin St Juste CB
4c. Kenny Yeboah, TE
6a. Grant Stuard LB
6b. Naquan Jones NT
7. Pier Olivier Lestage OL

My Mock is pretty much null and void after the trade. I won't be doing another 7 rder thats for sure. I'd say you got a decent haul though. Worked my *** off on this draft, spent 7 consecutive hours on 1 of the days i was working on it. 

Edited March 30, 2021 by brushmyhair

[DR43]

9 hours ago, 43M said:

Douchette is trash.    

If not for my eternal hatred of Mark Madden,  he would be my least favorite Pittsburgh sports personality.

Why do you hate double M?

[43M]

52 minutes ago, DR43 said:

Why do you hate double M?

Because he is arrogant and acts like he knows more than he does.   I cant count how many times he has been wrong over the past.    Im not saying he doesnt have inside sources, but he cant stand when other beat writers and insiders have info he doesnt have and seems to make stuff up.

Beyond that, he used to have chats (maybe he still does) or respond to fans/readers in his comments sections and he would insult them if they questioned him or called him out.

 

EDIT....derp, just realized you were asking about Madden.   Sorry.

The easy answer is....what ISNT there to hate about Mark Madden?

Mark Madden is one of the most unlikable people out there IMO.    He is essentially everything I said about Douchette x100, plus he has laughable double standards and is a hypocrite of the highest order.      He selectively chooses who to attack without having all the facts, but will defend certain people/players for pretty much the exact same things.  He has made tasteless comments about numerous athletes.  He says things just to get a rise, and while I realize he is trying to be a shock jock type, shock jocks are successful when they are entertaining.   Madden isnt entertaining....he is just a fat, loud slob who thinks he knows everything and will lie about everyone who calls out his BS.

If you really want to get a good idea of what makes Madden so awful, listen to numerous wrestling insiders, especially Jim Cornette.   I dont agree with Cornette on everything, but I right on board with him when it comes to Madden the Hutt. 

 

Edited March 30, 2021 by 43M