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Divisional Round GDT: Ravens at Bills


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It’ll be interesting to see how healthy Cole Beasley will be for this game. If he’s on the same level as last week, we might be able to get away with sticking Tramon Williams on him in coverage and allow Hump to shadow Diggs.

John Brown as well, he either wasn’t healthy or he freezes up in the playoffs like Marvin Harrison. Could throw Anthony Averrett on him.

Marcus Peters should be on Gabe Davis as much as possible. Allen really seems to like to go to him on critical situations, but his speed isn’t to the same level of a Diggs, should allow Peters to attempt a few bait and switch tactics on Allen when he’s scrambling and under pressure.

Depending on health, we could rotate Jimmy on Diggs as well to use his length and press ability to disrupt his timing with Allen. In either case Elliot should be providing bracket coverage over the top to assist with Diggs, while providing double move support for Gabe Davis over the top. His #1 goal should just be no one getting deeper than him.

If we do that, I trust Bowser and Clark to be able to provide coverage on Knox/Singletary. While Queen should be used on passing downs to drop into shallow zones over the middle, to disrupt any quick hitters slants to Diggs or Beasley, while his main assignment is QB spy on Allen.

Our DL should act in a similar manner to how they defended Tannehill. Not getting too far upfield, except Ngakoue, whose gap will be covered by Queen on the QB spy. The value of forcing a big strip sack on Allen is too great to not let him loose. And if Allen must scramble force him to scramble drill to the left vs the right. He can do it in either direction, but his effectiveness- as with any QB- will decrease in that direction.

Additionally Chris Board could be used as a LB spy as well, especially if Queen has scenarios where he gets washed out by IOL on Allen scrambles.. or he proves physically too week to bring Allen down.

Lastly in the event that Singletary stays into block, I would blitz Bowser as an extra rusher, with Queen monitoring the back leaking as an outlet late, as well as any potential scramble lanes for Allen to exploit.

If we can execute appropriately in this manner, big plays will come, but I think we could limit their explosive plays for scores, force some field goals more often than not and keep their final score to somewhere between 16-24 points.

Thus it will be on Lamar and our offense to execute and exploit their defense for something beyond that. I think this is a game where if we can get to 30 points on offense, we can potentially ensure victory.

——

The key will be on our IOL. The Bills IDL constantly allowed push from the Colts IOL; however we don’t have an impact interior lineman on the level of Nelson. Though Mekari is on a similar level as Ryan Kelly and Powers is on a similar level to Glowinski as over late.

What the Bills did to stop the run against the Colts was relying on plenty of run blitzes to overwhelm gaps and hope they guess right. Taylor wasn’t able to break any huge runs, but that’s because his vision is only above average, their were lanes and moves he could’ve utilizes to exploit their run defense for bigger gains.

If our IOL can win similarly to the Colts at the POA, JKD/Gus provided with similar run looks could certainly find ways to win. I’m just not entirely confident that our IOL will be able to provide similar looks.

Another smart bet for a play opportunity run at least a few times could be Duvernay off of WR jet motion runs as well as more 3 RB personnel groupings where we put Dobbins off of jet motion with Gus and Ricard aligned in their normal spots. Both could prove effective big play opportunities in the event that the Bills get caught in a run blitz situation and can’t maintain the edge.

Knowing how Roman schemes it he’ll probably use Boykin lined up to block the corner, while leaving Duvernay/Dobbins 1v1 off jet motion to overcome the unblocked DE with speed. If everyone executes, could be potential big play opportunity there.

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On the "Lamar hasn't played in the snow" narrative, I agree with GRo that playing in the snow will (more often than not) be less disadvantageous for Lamar and this offense than playing in torrential rain (like we did against the Pats this year, or the 9ers last year)

 

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Nothing against the Bills fans themselves - who are great - but kinda funny and reassuringly familiar to be back in a situation where we're going up against a darling of the rest of the NFL world and we know very neutral is gonna be rooting against us this weekend. After seeing how it went last year being everybody's feel-good story, I feel a lot better seeing us riding into a playoff battle looking to rain on the parade and play unlikable heel like we've done so many times before. 

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They’re replaying last year’s Ravens Bills game on NFL Network right now and holy HELL did i forget about how much the officials had it out for us that last drive

Walked the Bills down the field with some of the weakest calls i’ve ever seen lol honestly impressive we maintained our composure and won that game

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5 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

They’re replaying last year’s Ravens Bills game on NFL Network right now and holy HELL did i forget about how much the officials had it out for us that last drive

Walked the Bills down the field with some of the weakest calls i’ve ever seen lol honestly impressive we maintained our composure and won that game

Yep, I remember that. I also rewatched that game and even though we won, I don't remember a particular game where I was angrier at the refs in the last couple years. They were just handing out 15 yard penalties every time we tried to close out the game. Hope that's not the type of game we get this weekend. I'm somewhat prepared to lose to a very good Bills team, but it can't be like that. 

Other things of note from that game... Josh Allen had some deep opportunities in the first half that he missed. New and improved Josh Allen will likely hit more of those and put up more points. Jimmy Smith struggled against Cole Beasley. I think Smith has actually been a bit faster this year, but it's not the type of receiver he does well against. IDK if we want him to play more a safety role, or man up TE's, but we may be better off with AA as the #3 on some of these shiftier Bills receivers. On offense, it seemed like Mark Ingram had a 2020 Mark Ingram preview game. There were opportunities and room for good runs, but he didn't make them. I think our path to victory this time involves a big time showing from Dobbins. He was ok against the Titans. But his ability to execute stretch runs and power inside will be a huge factor Saturday. 

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I finally waited to post this so as to give the most accurate likelihood of game time weather.

Quote

Kickoff

 

http://nflweather.com/assets/weather/npartly-cloudy-night.png

Mostly Cloudy

Temperature: 29f.

Feels Like: 20f.

 

Wind: 11mi West

Humidity: 94%

Visibility: 8mi

Barometer: 999"

Dew Point: 28f.

Cloud Cover: 83%

Precipitation Prob: 6%

 

Q2

 

http://nflweather.com/assets/weather/npartly-cloudy-night.png

Mostly Cloudy

Temperature: 29f.

Feels Like: 20f.

 

Wind: 11mi West - NorthWest

Humidity: 94%

Visibility: 6mi

Barometer: 999"

Dew Point: 28f.

Cloud Cover: 86%

Precipitation Prob: 5%

 

Q3

 

http://nflweather.com/assets/weather/ncloudy.png

Overcast

Temperature: 29f.

Feels Like: 19f.

 

Wind: 12mi West - SouthWest

Humidity: 94%

Visibility: 4mi

Barometer: 999"

Dew Point: 28f.

Cloud Cover: 90%

Precipitation Prob: 5%

 

Q4

 

http://nflweather.com/assets/weather/ncloudy.png

Overcast

Temperature: 29f.

Feels Like: 19f.

 

Wind: 12mi West - SouthWest

Humidity: 94%

Visibility: 2mi

IIBarometer: 999"

Dew Point: 28f.

Cloud Cover: 94%

Precipitation Prob: 6%

Seems to be that snow is expected to fall, but not until after midnight, after the game has finished. The expected winds right now, aren’t ideal, but Lamar should be able to sling it through 11 mph winds with medium to low difficulty. If this changes significantly, I’ll try and update it, but the precipitation also looks minimal at this point.

The visibility was supposed to be much worse with legitimate fog and 900 ft visibility expected, but that’s since dissipated. Looking like it will be a clean game weather wise outside of a strong breeze that adds to the windchill. I’m hoping the cold won’t effect the rookies too much, like Madubuike. But Dobbins spent time at Ohio State so I’m sure he’s had his fair share of freezing cold games.

This game has almost arrived. I think whichever team wins this game, will be thankful to have the extra nights rest over the opposing team in the AFCCG.

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