NFL Draft Bets

[goldfishwars]

10 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

I think the teams will be much lower on Oweh than draft Twitter.  That's a serious lack of production no matter what his measurables are.  Teams will see him as an athletic project moreso than a skilled football player.

Haha - I genuinely think the opposite. That was a generational workout and teams will want that upside. Flashed more than enough of that insane athletic talent to think the production is coming.

[THE DUKE]

6 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Haha - I genuinely think the opposite. That was a generational workout and teams will want that upside. Flashed more than enough of that insane athletic talent to think the production is coming.

The same insane athleticism that produced 0 sacks this year, and all of 7 in his 3 years at Penn State again far inferior competition on the whole than he will face in the NFL.  That risk is a whole lot easier to swallow with a 2nd or 3rd rd pick than with 1st rd expectations.  1st rd edge players you want to be 10+ sack guys a year.

[goldfishwars]

Just now, THE DUKE said:

The same insane athleticism that produced 0 sacks this year, and all of 7 in his 3 years at Penn State again far inferior competition on the whole than he will face in the NFL.  That risk is a whole lot easier to swallow with a 2nd or 3rd rd pick than with 1st rd expectations.  1st rd edge players you want to be 10+ sack guys a year.

All of these edge players come with problems though, no guarantees with these guys. Oweh was a very good run defender last year, he wasn't the year before than. He was disruptive, you see it all over the film. He came into the sport late (in his teens), he's an ascending player with clear incremental improvements. We see it every year, teams like the athletic guys. Especially at edge, where you've got to hit those thresholds to be good in the NFL and he blows the doors off of them. It's like Gary going at 12 when he didn't do anything at Michigan. 

[MikeT14]

FanDuel not having prop bets up yet is making me mad. 

[BoltsFan937]

On 4/14/2021 at 9:15 PM, Ozzy said:

Sewell going to Miami or Cinci is very likely I feel with all the QB love going around, even if the Falcons trade out of 4 it is most likely to a team wanting a QB.  So for him to go #2,#3 or #4 is not very likely to me.

I took it as over/under the literal number. Like Sewell over 5.5 meaning he’d get drafted anytime after 6.  And Chase being drafted before 7

[BigC421/]

Loving Oweh as first dline drafted at +1400

[TakeTheBallDeep]

I am seeing Kyle Trask over/under at 77.5 and after a quick glance it seems most on here would take the over?

How about it folks do you see Trask being picked by or before pick 77 (under) or pick 78 or higher (over) 

[paul-mac]

1 minute ago, TakeTheBallDeep said:

I am seeing Kyle Trask over/under at 77.5 and after a quick glance it seems most on here would take the over?

How about it folks do you see Trask being picked by or before pick 77 (under) or pick 78 or higher (over) 

Other than the 5 QBs we talk about, no one else is going before the 4th round.

 

I really think unless we see an unexpected faller out of round 1, there won’t be a single QB picked on day 2. 

[Norm]

On 4/22/2021 at 2:59 PM, paul-mac said:

Other than the 5 QBs we talk about, no one else is going before the 4th round.

 

I really think unless we see an unexpected faller out of round 1, there won’t be a single QB picked on day 2. 

I didn't want to do this here but I'm still confused how Mond is a 4th round pick too everyone on Earth but me (and Chris simms but he didn't count). 

[paul-mac]

I like +2500 on the first three RBs to be Harris-Williams-Etienne in that order 

[TakeTheBallDeep]

6 hours ago, paul-mac said:

I like +2500 on the first three RBs to be Harris-Williams-Etienne in that order 

That is worth a small bet for sure at those odds

[BayRaider]

On 4/15/2021 at 5:03 AM, goldfishwars said:

All of these edge players come with problems though, no guarantees with these guys. Oweh was a very good run defender last year, he wasn't the year before than. He was disruptive, you see it all over the film. He came into the sport late (in his teens), he's an ascending player with clear incremental improvements. We see it every year, teams like the athletic guys. Especially at edge, where you've got to hit those thresholds to be good in the NFL and he blows the doors off of them. It's like Gary going at 12 when he didn't do anything at Michigan. 

Yep every single EDGE in this class is a project (except Philips, but he also has major medical concerns). For this EDGE class, you are drafting purely for potential. And nobody has more potential than Oweh. His 0 sacks don’t bother me much. 
 

For Rankings, Oweh is my #1 EDGE in this class, but they are all pretty close:

#18 Jayson Oweh

#20 Kwity Paye

#22 Azeez Ojulari

#23 Gregory Rousseau

#35 Jaelan Philips (mostly medical reasons/premature retirement)

And in my Final Mock, I think the draft goes like this:

15. Patriots - Kwity Paye

18. Dolphins - Jayson Oweh

22. Bills (trade up) - Jaelan Philips

23. Jets - Azeez Ojulari

26. Browns - Gregory Rousseau

I think Oweh is gonna go much higher than people expect. It seems most are thinking Late 1st/Early 2nd. 

Edited April 25, 2021 by BayRaider

[Flatlyner]

I just hammered the bet for Chase to be top 5 pick.  Its -165 but its like printing money.  He is almost assured of being the pick at 5 based on the Lions attempt to trade to 4 so they can draft him ahead of Bengals.

[THE DUKE]

15 minutes ago, Flatlyner said:

I just hammered the bet for Chase to be top 5 pick.  Its -165 but its like printing money.  He is almost assured of being the pick at 5 based on the Lions attempt to trade to 4 so they can draft him ahead of Bengals.

Free money

[goldfishwars]

2 hours ago, Flatlyner said:

I just hammered the bet for Chase to be top 5 pick.  Its -165 but its like printing money.  He is almost assured of being the pick at 5 based on the Lions attempt to trade to 4 so they can draft him ahead of Bengals.

Yeah got this too!