Recapping the 2021 Draft (Post-Draft Talk)

[Jeremy408]

28 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

You also have to account for value. You build championships according to value, not just take the highest rated players on your board. For example, if Malcolm Koonce is your #1 player on your entire board, above Trevor Lawrence or anyone, are the Jagaurs going to take him at #1 Overall? No. It'd be a horrendous value pick. 

Can anyone guarantee Koonce will be available the next Jaguar pick? No. It's called gambling and you need to be prepared to lose the player you love in order to play this game successfully. You take a chance he'll be at your next pick, or in-range of trading up for him at your next pick. For example, if you go into a car dealership, absolutely dead-set on a certain car and in-love with it, you are going to get the worst deal possible. You have to be willing to lose it, and be willing to walk away from it, to get the best deal and best value. 

This is seriously not rocket science folks. 

The problem with this analogy is we’re not talking about Quarterback who won a championship as a freshman and he’s had national attention since he was 12 versus some random defensive lineman from Buffalo University. We’re talking about which tackle you would take. There are different tackles that have different skill sets that work better for different schemes and different coaching styles and fit different needs for different situations. For example your team may not care about how good he is in the passing game right now if he is the best and the run game right now and has all of the trades to be a really good pass blocker with coaching that The coach specializes in.

it’s also important to note that the Jaguars are picking 17th overall. When you’re picking first the only thing you have to worry about is The player that you want in the second round not going in the first round.

When you’re picking at 17th you don’t again pick till 48th so you have to worry about the player you want not going in the first round and then not getting picked before you in the second round by some team that passed on the tackle because they can you get one high in the second. Another thing to think about is unless there is some freak of nature sean Taylor type, tackle is more generally important than a safety, therefore safety has a better chance of being there in the second round as we all saw on Friday.

The overall problem with your value argument is where are you getting that Leatherwood wasn’t valued by other teams?

Edited May 3, 2021 by Jeremy408

[BayRaider]

At the start of the 2023 season, I have a feeling Ferrell will be gone and off the team, Arnette will be playing NCB instead of Outside Corner, and Leatherwood will be playing guard. Gruden will have just made another 1st Round Reach in the 2023 Draft and @Dessie will say "Well, you never know! Maybe all the teams had him high and the media sucks!". 

Anything to defend this team and it's horrendous decision making over the past 19 years. 

[ronjon1990]

9 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

That's not how odds work. Just because a player can bust doesn't mean it's unknowable whether a player will be successful. Think of it this way: why are the vast majority of starting quarterbacks selected in the first round? If it were truly a crapshoot, then we wouldn't progressively lower hit rates on players as the draft progressed.

1/3 of the league started non-1st round QBs last season.  

This season, Seattle, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Chicago, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington could all start week 1 with a non-1st round QB. Baltimore is starting a QB who was a late trade away from being a 2nd rounder, ditto for Denver if they go with Bridgewater. Even if we go super technical and concede Jackson and Bridgewater were 1st rounders all the way no matter what, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New York Giants, and Miami could replace their QB with a non-1st round QB within a matter of weeks of the season starting. That would be, what, a solid 1/2 of the league? 

I think "vast" majority is a bit of an overstatement. 

[Jeremy408]

2 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

But how does that explain that the vast majority of starting quarterbacks are first rounders compared to the rest of the 6 rounds in the draft. If the draft was truly a crapshoot, wouldn't the distribution be more even?

And it's not a better to question to ask why there have been so many QB busts in history. The answer is simple: the NFL is a hard league to succeed in. The better question for you is why there have been more "busts" in the later rounds than in the first round. According to your logic, that the draft is a crapshoot, shouldn't the later rounds have the same success rate as the first round?

Because you have to use high draft picks to get a chance at who you perceive as the best QB prospects because the chances are other coaches Who need quarterbacks want to draft those players in our prepared to use a high draft pick to get them. That has nothing To do with whether or not you know how they’re going to turn out. Just the belief that based on what you’ve seen from them in terms of traits they are going to pan out because you really need a quarterback. Good Quarterbacks don’t hit the open market and they’re very hard to trade for so your best chance at them is to draft them as high as possible. 

League that’s actually not a good answer to my question in terms of because that would mean that the league is hard for everyone at every position. The answer to my question have to specifically answer why is it that quarterbacks who are picked usually in the top 10 of the first round Usually not pan out as opposed to other positions that are picked in the first round? 

 

[ronjon1990]

Just now, BayRaider said:

At the start of the 2023 season, I have a feeling Ferrell will be gone and off the team, Arnette will be playing NCB instead of Outside Corner, and Leatherwood will be playing guard. Gruden will have just made another 1st Round Reach in the 2023 Draft and @Dessie will say "Well, you never know! Maybe all the teams had him high and the media sucks!". 

Anything to defend this team and it's horrendous decision making over the past 19 years. 

By 2023, Ferrell, Abram, and Arnette could all be off the team and Jacobs could be washed up like DeMarco Murray once Dallas was done with him. None of that would be overly surprising. 

And people will still defend how we use 1st round picks and kiss Grudock arse like they're geniuses. 

[Dessie]

4 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

At the start of the 2023 season, I have a feeling Ferrell will be gone and off the team, Arnette will be playing NCB instead of Outside Corner, and Leatherwood will be playing guard. Gruden will have just made another 1st Round Reach in the 2023 Draft and @Dessie will say "Well, you never know! Maybe all the teams had him high and the media sucks!". 

Anything to defend this team and it's horrendous decision making over the past 19 years. 

And you will have changed your mind and tell everybody that you said all along that Leatherwood was a good pick just like you reversed on Ferrell until you got found out. Anything to try and prove you are right. 

[BayRaider]

5 minutes ago, Dessie said:

And you will have changed your mind and tell everybody that you said all along that Leatherwood was a good pick just like you reversed on Ferrell until you got found out. Anything to try and prove you are right. 

When did I ever say I didn't make those statements about Ferrell in 2019? Just because I say he was a reach now, doesn't mean I "tried" to change my stance. I was wrong in 2019 about Ferrell. I'm admitting I was wrong and not changing my 2019 opinion. He was a reach. At the time, I didn't think he was a reach. However, in time, I was proven completely wrong, and the vast majority that said he was a reach were correct. Huge difference, and you are trying to put your "spin" on things. 

My stance on Ferrell in 2019 is basically the stance you and Jeremy have now. Except I can admit when I'm wrong. You have watched these reaches fail year after year and still fail to realize they are reaches. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by BayRaider

[Rich7sena]

5 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

1/3 of the league started non-1st round QBs last season.  

This season, Seattle, San Francisco, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Chicago, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington could all start week 1 with a non-1st round QB. Baltimore is starting a QB who was a late trade away from being a 2nd rounder, ditto for Denver if they go with Bridgewater. Even if we go super technical and concede Jackson and Bridgewater were 1st rounders all the way no matter what, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, New York Giants, and Miami could replace their QB with a non-1st round QB within a matter of weeks of the season starting. That would be, what, a solid 1/2 of the league? 

I think "vast" majority is a bit of an overstatement. 

I would call 2/3 of starters being from a single round of the draft being pretty vast. Of those teams that you listed, San Francisco and Chicago just drafted first rounders to replace their non-first round starters. And if you think including second and third round starters bolsters your argument, it doesn't. Point is, more good players are drafted early than late. Thus, the draft is not as "random" as you claim.

[Rich7sena]

10 minutes ago, Jeremy408 said:

Because you have to use high draft picks to get a chance at who you perceive as the best QB prospects because the chances are other coaches Who need quarterbacks want to draft those players in our prepared to use a high draft pick to get them. That has nothing To do with whether or not you know how they’re going to turn out. Just the belief that based on what you’ve seen from them in terms of traits they are going to pan out because you really need a quarterback. Good Quarterbacks don’t hit the open market and they’re very hard to trade for so your best chance at them is to draft them as high as possible. 

League that’s actually not a good answer to my question in terms of because that would mean that the league is hard for everyone at every position. The answer to my question have to specifically answer why is it that quarterbacks who are picked usually in the top 10 of the first round Usually not pan out as opposed to other positions that are picked in the first round? 

 

You're all tied up in a pretzel. Quarterbacks, like every position, don't pan out because the NFL is hard. My point is that players in the first round pan out at a higher rate than players in later rounds. That right there proves, without a shadow of a doubt, that the draft is not a crapshoot. If it were, success rate would be even in every round. That's it. That's the argument.

Edited May 3, 2021 by Rich7sena

[Dessie]

4 hours ago, BayRaider said:

This is the same excuse everyone gave Ferrell and Arnette. “Maybe it wasn’t a reach... because you know... maybe the teams were higher on them than the media”

Just so happened to be the Raiders all three times...?

They were clear reaches. 
 

Ferrell and Arnette sure have worked out great. Ferrell might not be on this team in a couple years. At least Arnette has Nickel Corner to fall back on and Leatherwood has Guard to fall back on, neither are gonna be flat out busts. Although still way way over drafted. 
 

The justification period for Raider fans happens every single post-draft. Like history repeating itself. 

Just a reminder what you said. You initially tried to claim ‘everyone’ said they were clear reaches, conveniently forgetting you were the main person who said he wasn’t. 

You’ve only accepted Ferrell being called a reach since it’s been pointed out your change of stance. 

[BayRaider]

3 minutes ago, Dessie said:

Just a reminder what you said. You initially tried to claim ‘everyone’ said they were clear reaches, conveniently forgetting you were the main person who said he wasn’t. 

You’ve only accepted Ferrell being called a reach since it’s been pointed out your change of stance. 

Once again you are putting your spin on things. "Everyone" is referring to a vast majority, and the vast majority did think Ferrell was a reach. The statement is not incorrect or false. Also, the ones who didn't think Ferrell was a reach, like myself, have realized we were wrong, and now admit it is a reach.

You have have still failed to realize and acknowledge that these picks have been reaches and have failed over and over. Your blind optimism, is just that, optimism. It lacks all aspects of critical thinking, even though you think that's what you're doing. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by BayRaider

[ronjon1990]

Just now, Rich7sena said:

I would call 2/3 of starters being from a single round of the draft being pretty vast. Of those teams that you listed, San Francisco and Chicago just drafted first rounders to replace their non-first round starters. And if you think including second and third round starters bolsters your argument, it doesn't. Point is, more good players are drafted early than late. Thus, the draft is not as "random" as you claim.

To each their own, I suppose.

[Dessie]

Just now, BayRaider said:

Once again you are putting your spin on things. "Everyone" is referring to a vast majority, and the vast majority did think Ferrell was a reach. The statement is not incorrect or false. Also, the ones who didn't think Ferrell was a reach, like myself, have realized we were wrong, and now admit it is a reach.

You have have still failed to realize and acknowledge that these picks have been reaches and have failed over and over. You're blind optimism, is just that, optimism. It lacks all aspects of critical thinking, even though you think that's what you're doing. 

How can it be optimism when I called Ferrell  a reach lol. You literally are making zero sense cos you have been caught out talking  nonsense again.
 

You continually try to change your stance to fit your narrative then whine like a baby when you get caught out ( which is a lot). Ferrell being the latest. Carr ‘best Qb we’ve had’ Carr ‘ I’d trade him for any Qb’ Carr ‘He’s a top 12-15 QB’ Carr ‘ he’s a a below average QB’ 

Seriously this take trying to tell everyone that Ferrell was a reach from day 1 when you defended him to the hilt sums you up. Embarrassing you continue to try to defend it. Best off keeping quiet and moving on.

[Jeremy408]

9 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Grades for each pick. 

17 - Alex Leatherwood | OT | Alabama: B

Definitely a reach based on the media's rankings but Leatherwood was one of the most athletic OT's in the draft and a 4 year starter at Alabama. I hated the pick but after having some time to watch some more tape of him I think that he'll be a plug and play starter with the athletic tools to be a very good RT going forward. 

43 - Trevon Moehrig | FS | TCU: A+

The best safety in the draft and a great value pick near the top of the second round. I love that Gruden and Mayock were willing to get aggressive and move up ahead of Dallas to land their guy. Moehrig projects as a plug and play starter that should be a leader and playmaker in our secondary for years to come. 

79 - Malcolm Koonce | Edge | Buffalo: B+

Teams seemed to be higher than Koonce than the media and truthfully I didn't know much about him before the draft. But as I've consistently said before the draft you can never have too many pass rusher and Koonce is a long, twitchy, edge rusher with bend that should be able to help us from day one as a rotational pass rusher. 

80 - Divine Deablo | LB/S | Virginia Tech: C 

Deablo is another guy that I wasn't too familiar with during the pre draft process but watching his tape he looks very similar to Kam Chancellor when he came out of Virginia Tech. Deablo looks like a guy that can make some plays but this kind of reminds me of the Muse pick last year as we're projecting a guy who was a former WR/SS as a LB at the next level. I think there's some upside here but we'll see.

143 - Tyree Gillespie | S | Missouri: B-

Gillespie is a versatile safety that spent a ton of time in single high as well as in the box during his time at Missouri. I think he projects as a nice third safety going forward because of his versatility but that this pick also signals how we feel about Abram going forward. Overall I like the pick because we've needed safety help for almost a decade now but I also think we had other needs that could've been addressed here. 

167 - Nate Hobbs | CB | Illinois: B

The Raiders clearly wanted to address the defense, particularly the secondary, and I think Hobbs was a decent value pick at this point in the draft. He graded out as one of the most athletic CB's to come into the draft in the last two decades, was a multi-year starter in the Big Ten, has played in a similar scheme, and has played both slot CB and on the outside. His stats in coverage weren't great last year but he definitely has the athletic profile and versatility to make the roster. 

230 - Jimmy Morrissey | C | Pitt: D

With as much as the staff has praised Andre James as the savior of the OL going forward this pick was just a little weird to me. Nick Martin projects as a solid veteran backup and if the staff really believes that James is a guy, like they signaled with his extension, do we really have a need for 3 centers? I would've preferred to use the pick on a guy at a premium position with some upside. 

With Leatherwood for me it comes down to He better start at right tackle week one. But in terms of what he can do he doesn’t take the backseat to anyone athletically and Tom cable has proven that he can work with athleticism even if they don’t have the proper technique down or have even the best tape. So I have no problem giving him the benefit of the doubt.

With Moehrig i’m surprised the Raiders went with him due to what I have been mentioning about him not really playing single high in college which he also mentioned in the press conference. This is another coaching pick. I trust Gus Bradley that if he hand-picked him that he can turn him into the single high safety that we need him to be.

with Koonce as soon as I saw the Penn State tape I was hooked. He look like he was dominant against inferior competition but the Penn State tape confirmed that he can play with the big boys. This also makes me feel better about them not getting Jaylon Phillips because the reality is if Max Crosby gets anywhere between 8 to 10 sacks and Jalen Phillips gets 8 to 10 sacks then who cares. We were able to get a pass rusher in the third round as more of a complementary guy to come in and relieve him and Ngakoue while he develops. 

With Deablo what I like most is that Richard Smith the linebacker coach who has a track record of converting athletic big safeties into will linebackers who played a high level is the one who handpicked him.

What I like about the Gillispse pick is that they’re not waiting until Abrams doesn’t pan out next year to have to go into an off-season in 2022 to find his replacement. They were afraid to go in the fourth round and move up to get someone that they also really like and evaluated to get him even if we are only for insurance purposes. I also really like his tape against Kyle Pitts showing that he can cover. That will be an interesting thing to watch next year.

Cobbs Will be a good pic if he is able to play slot corner

Morresay is a head scratcher because we don’t really need a center but at the same time he can be the long term back up for Andre James if he pans out and if he doesn’t maybe they saw him from a value perspective at that point because he may be able to start in the future. Good long term depth nonetheless.

Edited May 3, 2021 by Jeremy408

[BayRaider]

7 minutes ago, Dessie said:

You continually try to change your stance to fit your narrative then whine like a baby

Actually been you for years. Anytime someone criticized McKenzie you started crying coming to the rescue. Same with Carr. Same with Gruden. Same with Mayock. You and NTL Train (really forget his name these days) always did the same thing. Defended everyone and anyone on the team, under ANY circumstances. Talk about being a homer. NTL would even defend Norton like crazy. I remember him disappearing and only posting a couple times a year after Norton was fired. You are no different. People deserve criticism on this team. And this team has had complete buffoons in charge for almost two decades. Keep crying over it and defending them like they are your parents. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by BayRaider