2022 DRAFT THREAD - QB’s Wanted

[e16bball]

Hurts to see Amon-Ra St. Brown playing so well, when he was one of my guys last draft. I can’t beat them up too badly, as I was happy with the Dyami Brown pick when they made it — largely because I figured they wanted Curtis Samuel getting a fair number of snaps in the slot — but Amon-Ra has basically as many catches in each of his last 3 games (10, 8, and 8, for a total of 249 yards) as Dyami has all season (9 for a total of 87 yards). 

Edited December 21, 2021 by e16bball

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

Yikes, if you’re bailing on Fields after 10 games in that trash offense, we’re gonna have to find a special seatbelt to keep you on board for more than a few weeks of one of these guys we’re looking at in this draft. 

Corral is coming from an offense where everything is made easy for him, from the reads to the throws. I really think it’s a tricky transition for him — he’ll need to be very sharp to successfully move from middle school to grad school in one offseason. It’s a similar thing with Willis, except that Corral is currently better at what he does, so it’ll likely be even trickier for Willis.

Howell’s processing seems absolutely glacial at times, and if he tries running in the NFL like he has in college this year — upright, slow, down the center of the field, unconcerned about taking on contact — someone is going to cut him in half. I probably like his arm the best of any of them, all things considered, but he just doesn’t get the ball out well. Everyone talks about how bad the OL play was, but he took a sack on a shockingly high percentage of his pressured snaps. Hard to imagine him quickly managing all the disguises and tricks the NFL will throw at him. 

The things that will give these guys a chance (if they come here) is having Heinicke on board for another season — so they don’t necessarily have to play — and the fact that we’ve already got decent offensive talent with experience in the system. McLaurin, Samuel, Thomas, Gibson, and McKissic is pretty solid group of skill talent, and even more importantly, we should be able to put a pretty quality OL out there. At least it probably won’t be a disaster, which is absolutely crucial for a young QB.

Not so much bailing on Fields more so I’ve seen this before. I think the situation he’s in is terrible considering they went into the season with a lame duck coach and GM who they kept for god knows what reason? With that said, you have to be alarmed by what you’re seeing. He was just standing there waiting and getting sacked. How do you get sacked on a routine screen play and lose like 10 yards? I love his ability and hopefully they get a coach who fosters that and brings him along but his body language is pretty bad too. Kinda seeing the same things with Zach Wilson.
 

There really is something to going to a bad team and not being able to overcome it. It’s unfortunate but watching him play just reminds me so much of what we went through in Haskins second season. Fields is obviously way more talented so he has a chance to overcome these things as where Haskins just couldn’t get out of his own way. 
 

As far as this years QBs go it’s really hard to beat up Howell. He lost Newsome, Williams, Brown and Carter which was basically all of his skill position players to go along with the OL. Howell is the best QB in this draft in my opinion but Corral the most talented if that makes sense? I think if we go QB we’ll target Howell. 

[ripsean21]

1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

Not so much bailing on Fields more so I’ve seen this before. I think the situation he’s in is terrible considering they went into the season with a lame duck coach and GM who they kept for god knows what reason? With that said, you have to be alarmed by what you’re seeing. He was just standing there waiting and getting sacked. How do you get sacked on a routine screen play and lose like 10 yards? I love his ability and hopefully they get a coach who fosters that and brings him along but his body language is pretty bad too. Kinda seeing the same things with Zach Wilson.
 

There really is something to going to a bad team and not being able to overcome it. It’s unfortunate but watching him play just reminds me so much of what we went through in Haskins second season. Fields is obviously way more talented so he has a chance to overcome these things as where Haskins just couldn’t get out of his own way. 
 

As far as this years QBs go it’s really hard to beat up Howell. He lost Newsome, Williams, Brown and Carter which was basically all of his skill position players to go along with the OL. Howell is the best QB in this draft in my opinion but Corral the most talented if that makes sense? I think if we go QB we’ll target Howell. 

Everything in your top paragraph is exactly why I keep pounding the don’t force this years selection. Every teams rebuild is unique. We can say Rivera needs to pick a QB but the truth is picking the right QB and having the ideal situation to put that QB in is more important then just selecting a QB this year because we as fans want one. I’m perfectly okay with Talyor being our starter next season if we’ve upgraded LB OL and atleast one secondary position be it FS or CB

[offbyone]

5 hours ago, e16bball said:

So here’s my question, and I’m genuinely asking: at what point does the “with and without you” record become too hard to deny?

At this point, based on the numbers compiled by @MikeT14 and @taylor made, they’re 27-28 (.491) with Scherff and 3-19 (.136) without him since 2017. That’s...a pretty staggering difference. Fringe playoff team with him and Lions/Texans/Jaguars without him. And he’s missed games in each of those seasons, so it’s not like it’s mostly just one year where everything collapsed around the time he went out — it’s a pretty comprehensive, long-term cross-section. 

For years, I have completely agreed with you. You can’t pay a guy that much money at a non-premium position, especially when you can’t rely on him to stay on the field. I wanted to trade him a couple years ago, before the franchise tag ever even came into play. But...good lord. It’s becoming hard to deny that we’re a different team when he’s on the field. 

Its a legitimate question and very interesting stat.  It is hard for me to argue.  I guess the obvious counter argument is you have to keep in mind we are playing a backup at that position when he isn't there and we haven't always had good depth.  I am pretty sure if we had a mid level solid guard who was signed to start at his spot that stat wouldn't be too meaningful.  

We could have for instance drafted Wyatt Davis instead of Dyami Brown or St Juste and had a high level starter. 

I am not saying we shouldn't spend any resources on the position whether that is draft capital or money, I just don't think we should pay the highest amount of cap space possible for a guy who is missing a huge percentage of snaps at a position that the starters play 100% of offensive snaps.  We also have to recognize that Scherff is 30 years old and he isn't getting healthier.  

[turtle28]

Draft can’t come soon enough 

[turtle28]

@e16bballsame question could be asked of our former QB. We were about a .500 team w/ him & well below w/o him. The question becomes does Scherff want to stay in DC? My guess is he doesn’t, just like in the end Kirk didn’t either. I don’t think he re-signs him unless we make him by far the highest paid OG or something.

[lavar703]

41 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

@e16bballsame question could be asked of our former QB. We were about a .500 team w/ him & well below w/o him. The question becomes does Scherff want to stay in DC? My guess is he doesn’t, just like in the end Kirk didn’t either. I don’t think he re-signs him unless we make him by far the highest paid OG or something.

Just let Scherff go. 

[taylor made]

We'll most likely franchise Scherff for one more year. (As we should) I'm not sure anyone can say that Saahdiq Charles was better out there tonight than Scherff.  He'll be 31 next year and after that his value will have declined, he might be affordable on a retirement contract. They should start looking for his replacement in this draft though.... hopefully within the first two rounds. 

[e16bball]

45 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

@e16bballsame question could be asked of our former QB. We were about a .500 team w/ him & well below w/o him. The question becomes does Scherff want to stay in DC? My guess is he doesn’t, just like in the end Kirk didn’t either. I don’t think he re-signs him unless we make him by far the highest paid OG or something.

Our former QB missed a total of one game here once he became the starter, so how are you drawing any conclusions about what we were without him in those seasons? 

There’s really no inquiry or analysis you can do with regard to team wins that makes Cousins look like anything more than I think he is. You’re better off just sticking to the good raw stats and maintaining that his teams lose so much because he just can’t catch any breaks with the guys around him.

[offbyone]

5 minutes ago, taylor made said:

We'll most likely franchise Scherff for one more year. (As we should) I'm not sure anyone can say that Saahdiq Charles was better out there tonight than Scherff.  He'll be 31 next year and after that his value will have declined, he might be affordable on a retirement contract. They should start looking for his replacement in this draft though.... hopefully within the first two rounds. 

Tag him a 3rd year in a row?  Pay him like 21 million in cap space?  We got to move on.

Schweitzer is fine for now as a replacement and yes we can draft someone.

It would be one thing if all we needed on the oline was RG, but we still need a left tackle.  Is Roullier coming back?  Will we pay the 10 million option to keep Flowers for one season or give him a big contract?  Are we gonna try to resign Lucas?

We can't sink all our money into one player who only plays part time.

[e16bball]

28 minutes ago, taylor made said:

We'll most likely franchise Scherff for one more year. (As we should) I'm not sure anyone can say that Saahdiq Charles was better out there tonight than Scherff.  He'll be 31 next year and after that his value will have declined, he might be affordable on a retirement contract. They should start looking for his replacement in this draft though.... hopefully within the first two rounds. 

The problem with franchising him again is that the rules of the 3rd franchise tag make it close to financially impossible to do.

He would get 144% of his 2021 salary, which is about $18M. So if we were to franchise him again, we’d be looking at paying him about $26M next season. Which is unfortunately a really crazy amount for anyone but a QB.

EDIT: Actually, it’s even worse than that. The CBA appears to specify that one of the options for determining the amount of 3rd-year franchise tag tenders is “the average of the five largest Prior Year Salaries for players at the position with the highest such average.” Which means his 2022 salary would be equal to the average of the 5 highest QB salaries this season. Assuming that means their “cap hit,” it would place his salary at about $28.5M next season.

Edited December 22, 2021 by e16bball

[e16bball]

Just to start getting some sense of where folks are thinking these players will slot, here’s a look at a couple mocks I’ve seen in the last few days.

 

Todd McShay: We were picking 13th and selected QB Matt Corral from Ole Miss. Of guys we’d likely be interested in, OT Evan Neal (3rd), CB Derek Stingley (4th), OT Charles Cross (6th), LB Nakobe Dean (7th), WR Jameson Williams (8th), S Kyle Hamilton (9th), and QB Kenny Pickett (12th) were already selected. For QBs, Malik Willis (17th), Desmond Ridder (19th), and Sam Howell (25th) also went in the 1st round.

Tankathon: We were picking 10th and selected OT Charles Cross from Mississippi State. Of guys we’d be interested in, Corral (3rd), Stingley (4th), Neal (5th), Hamilton (6th), and Pickett (7th) were already selected. For QBs, Willis (17th) and Howell (24th) also went in the 1st round.

PFF: We were picking 12th and selected QB Kenny Pickett from Pittsburgh. Of guys we’d be interested in, Stingley (3rd), Neal (4th), OT Ikem Ekwonu (5th), Cross (7th), WR Drake London (8th), Hamilton (10th), and CB Andrew Booth (11th) were already selected. For QBs, Corral (15th) and Howell (16th) also went in the 1st round.

CBS: We were picking 10th and selected WR Jameson Williams from Alabama. Of guys we’d be interested in, Stingley (3rd), Neal (4th), Hamilton (5th), WR Treylon Burks (6th), Pickett (7th), Booth (8th), and Ekwonu (9th) were already selected. For QBs, Corral (14th) and Willis (20th) also went in the 1st.

Yahoo: We were picking 11th and selected QB Matt Corral. Of guys we’d be interested in, Ekwonu (3rd!), Stingley (4th), Neal (5th), Pickett (7th), Cross (9th), and Hamilton (10th) were already selected. For QBs, Howell (17th) also went in the 1st. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by e16bball

[e16bball]

A couple things that are clear from the review of mock drafts:

▪️ They are loving the pass-rushers at this point in the process. Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are the unanimous top 2, but they’re also showing guys like George Karlaftis (Purdue), David Ojabo (Michigan), DeMarvin Leal (Texas A&M), and even Travon Walker (Georgia) cracking the top 10-12 picks. That could really help players drop to us if there’s a run on DL talent early. 

▪️ There seems to be a sense that Ikem Ekwonu is going to rise in the rankings as the process goes on. If that’s the case, and teams see him as a legit OT prospect (I’m not sold), he could crack the top 10 along with Neal and Cross. One of those guys could easily make it to us OR push a good defender (Hamilton?) down to the point that we could nab them.

▪️ I have no idea how Derek Stingley’s draft stock is so bulletproof. They act like Hamilton’s recent knee injury will drop him down the board, but Stingley’s name is etched in blood in the top 5 despite barely playing since his freshman year? I wouldn’t touch him in the top 5. 

▪️ The consensus seems to be developing at the moment around Corral and Pickett as the top two QBs, as I’ve thought it would. Clearly, no one is sold on either one, but they’re consistently set apart from the rest in the current mocks. 

▪️ They have absolutely no idea which WR is going in the top 10, but they seem pretty convinced that one will. That tells me that one probably won’t — which I think is sensible. I’d probably have Jameson Williams at the top of my list, but he’s more of a mid-1st guy for me. 

▪️ I love Devin Lloyd, and I’m very pleased to see him falling past our pick in each of these mocks. Would be a tough pill to swallow, going LB in consecutive 1st rounds, but it might complete that defense if he could be the MLB of Rivera’s dreams.  

[MikeT14]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

 

▪️ The consensus seems to be developing at the moment around Corral and Pickett as the top two QBs, as I’ve thought it would. Clearly, no one is sold on either one, but they’re consistently set apart from the rest in the current mocks. 

Willis seems to be hovering around that Lamar, Lynch type status. Someone will fall in love with the idea and take them. 

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

Willis seems to be hovering around that Lamar, Lynch type status. Someone will fall in love with the idea and take them. 

I agree with that. I think he’ll go late 1st or early 2nd. I doubt we take him as he has so much work to do as a passer but last year they loved Trey Lance so maybe they’ll take Willis.