Karnage84 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, RuskieTitan said: Honestly, I think a lot of the value of TE is contingent on your WR core. If it's a crappy group, the TE is going to get featured more, and put up more stats. Got an elite #1 and good #2? TE isn't going to suppliment them as the primary target. I actually took a look at this with regards to Gronk while discussing with someone earlier this year, here's the stats: S13, Thomas was far and away my best receiver, Gronk stepped up big as the #2. Next season, Decker was a better #2 WR, so he ate away at WR1 and TE numbers (also worth noting is apparently had a weak third WR that season). S15, Wallace wasn't as good, and you see the TE numbers go back up for receptions. S16 is definitely an outliar, with how Crabtree performed as a WR2 in my offense. Gronk slides in firmly as the third target, still good TD production but clear drop-off for catches and yards. S17, Anderson and Jones weren't as strong lead receivers, so saw Gronk get a few more looks. And then I lost him to retirement. This is all just a snap-shot of one team over a couple of seasons featuring one of the elite TEs at the time, but I think it showcases that TEs eat at the same table as WRs, so it's not reasonable to expect all-world numbers from your TE if you have others taking away from the receiving 'pool' of stats. Then you probably have to consider how many looks your running backs are getting in the receiving game - I've seen some halfbacks eat up 40+ catches in a season, that certainly takes up a chunk of the targets. TL,DR: TE is a position where you receive diminishing returns based on how good the other receiving targets on the team are. More good targets = Less 'impact' in terms of volume stats, fewer good targets = bigger impact. This is a really interesting breakdown. I also wonder about their impact on the run game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, RuskieTitan said: So I guess what I'm saying is that don't be an idiot and overpay for something that you won't maximize the value of on your roster. I'm totally not regretting the Kittle trade at all. same re: Kelce 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamania Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said: Honestly, I think a lot of the value of TE is contingent on your WR core. If it's a crappy group, the TE is going to get featured more, and put up more stats. Got an elite #1 and good #2? TE isn't going to suppliment them as the primary target. I kind of figured this would be the case. I have a pretty good WR crew so it would make sense. Nice write-up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said: Honestly, I think a lot of the value of TE is contingent on your WR core. If it's a crappy group, the TE is going to get featured more, and put up more stats. Got an elite #1 and good #2? TE isn't going to suppliment them as the primary target. I actually took a look at this with regards to Gronk while discussing with someone earlier this year, here's the stats: S13, Thomas was far and away my best receiver, Gronk stepped up big as the #2. Next season, Decker was a better #2 WR, so he ate away at WR1 and TE numbers (also worth noting is apparently had a weak third WR that season). S15, Wallace wasn't as good, and you see the TE numbers go back up for receptions. S16 is definitely an outliar, with how Crabtree performed as a WR2 in my offense. Gronk slides in firmly as the third target, still good TD production but clear drop-off for catches and yards. S17, Anderson and Jones weren't as strong lead receivers, so saw Gronk get a few more looks. And then I lost him to retirement. This is all just a snap-shot of one team over a couple of seasons featuring one of the elite TEs at the time, but I think it showcases that TEs eat at the same table as WRs, so it's not reasonable to expect all-world numbers from your TE if you have others taking away from the receiving 'pool' of stats. Then you probably have to consider how many looks your running backs are getting in the receiving game - I've seen some halfbacks eat up 40+ catches in a season, that certainly takes up a chunk of the targets. TL,DR: TE is a position where you receive diminishing returns based on how good the other receiving targets on the team are. More good targets = Less 'impact' in terms of volume stats, fewer good targets = bigger impact. This is a pretty fantastic breakdown, and makes lots of sense: if you have lots of weapons, someone is bound to suffer (statistically). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuskieTitan Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Karnage84 said: This is a really interesting breakdown. I also wonder about their impact on the run game. I think they do have an impact in blocking. Pancakes are nice, but those are moreso indicating the blocks that sprung a big play - you can't really 'measure' someone just doing their job and blocking properly but not 'pancaking'... but that's my opinion, could be wrong. I'm also of the school that OL is important, which doesn't really have a consensus in this league as to just how important they are, so different folks have different perceptions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Based on the stats up to week 5, this is what the projected stats would be for the full season (Current stats x 3.2) PLAYER REC YDS YPR LNG TD DROP PNCK F Logan Thomas 67 1011 15.0 3 6 3 0 Evan Engram 86 986 11.4 13 3 3 0 Travis Kelce 80 938 11.7 6 3 13 3 Noah Fant 70 902 12.8 6 0 13 0 T.J. Hockenson 61 835 13.7 6 6 3 0 O.J. Howard 61 797 13.1 0 0 10 0 Austin Hooper 70 794 11.3 0 0 16 0 Jonnu Smith 58 752 13.1 0 6 10 0 George Kittle 67 749 11.1 6 0 10 0 Zach Ertz 58 746 12.9 6 3 19 0 Kyle Pitts 61 704 11.6 6 0 10 0 Dallas Goedert 54 650 11.9 3 3 13 0 Courtland Sutton 51 595 11.6 0 3 13 0 Eric Ebron 54 566 10.4 6 0 10 0 Darren Waller 51 566 11.1 3 3 19 0 Mark Andrews 45 550 12.3 3 6 0 0 Rob Gronkowski 42 547 13.2 3 0 10 0 Jared Cook 58 525 9.1 3 3 13 0 Mike Gesicki 35 480 13.6 0 3 3 0 Kyle Rudolph 45 368 8.2 10 6 22 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: Based on the stats up to week 5, this is what the projected stats would be for the full season (Current stats x 3.2) PLAYER REC YDS YPR LNG TD DROP PNCK F Logan Thomas 67 1011 15.0 3 6 3 0 Evan Engram 86 986 11.4 13 3 3 0 Travis Kelce 80 938 11.7 6 3 13 3 Noah Fant 70 902 12.8 6 0 13 0 T.J. Hockenson 61 835 13.7 6 6 3 0 O.J. Howard 61 797 13.1 0 0 10 0 Austin Hooper 70 794 11.3 0 0 16 0 Jonnu Smith 58 752 13.1 0 6 10 0 George Kittle 67 749 11.1 6 0 10 0 Zach Ertz 58 746 12.9 6 3 19 0 Kyle Pitts 61 704 11.6 6 0 10 0 Dallas Goedert 54 650 11.9 3 3 13 0 Courtland Sutton 51 595 11.6 0 3 13 0 Eric Ebron 54 566 10.4 6 0 10 0 Darren Waller 51 566 11.1 3 3 19 0 Mark Andrews 45 550 12.3 3 6 0 0 Rob Gronkowski 42 547 13.2 3 0 10 0 Jared Cook 58 525 9.1 3 3 13 0 Mike Gesicki 35 480 13.6 0 3 3 0 Kyle Rudolph 45 368 8.2 10 6 22 0 I'd argue the corrolation between talent and results is pretty close to zero Like, you could throw darts at names and probably get a ranking that is equally as reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: Kyle Rudolph 45 368 8.2 gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Just now, Malfatron said: gross 2nd in those TD things though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Malfatron said: gross although I do have Michael Gallup so that would explain why Kyle isnt targetted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Just now, swoosh said: 2nd in those TD things though conveniently left off the chart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Just now, Malfatron said: conveniently left off the chart! oh nm, i had to swipe right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tk3 said: I'd argue the corrolation between talent and results is pretty close to zero Like, you could throw darts at names and probably get a ranking that is equally as reasonable I'm not so sure. If you broke down how many of those were kept and how many drafted (and where), then compared supporting casts... I wonder if it would help it all to make sense. (I'm on a boat, so this isn't possible for me to do right now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 and lol, Kelce is the only TE that fumbled, abd he did it thrice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamania Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: Based on the stats up to week 5, this is what the projected stats would be for the full season (Current stats x 3.2) PLAYER REC YDS YPR LNG TD DROP PNCK F Logan Thomas 67 1011 15.0 3 6 3 0 Evan Engram 86 986 11.4 13 3 3 0 Travis Kelce 80 938 11.7 6 3 13 3 Noah Fant 70 902 12.8 6 0 13 0 T.J. Hockenson 61 835 13.7 6 6 3 0 O.J. Howard 61 797 13.1 0 0 10 0 Austin Hooper 70 794 11.3 0 0 16 0 Jonnu Smith 58 752 13.1 0 6 10 0 George Kittle 67 749 11.1 6 0 10 0 Zach Ertz 58 746 12.9 6 3 19 0 Kyle Pitts 61 704 11.6 6 0 10 0 Dallas Goedert 54 650 11.9 3 3 13 0 Courtland Sutton 51 595 11.6 0 3 13 0 Eric Ebron 54 566 10.4 6 0 10 0 Darren Waller 51 566 11.1 3 3 19 0 Mark Andrews 45 550 12.3 3 6 0 0 Rob Gronkowski 42 547 13.2 3 0 10 0 Jared Cook 58 525 9.1 3 3 13 0 Mike Gesicki 35 480 13.6 0 3 3 0 Kyle Rudolph 45 368 8.2 10 6 22 0 Interesting to see Andrews, Gronk, Waller, Ebron and Goedert so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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