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NYRaider

By NYRaider
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NYRaider

NYRaider

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3 minutes ago, seminoles1 said:

Mitchell is definitely a better volume shooter, that's for sure.

If only Mitchell got to play with Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard, and Tim Duncan. I wonder what the narrative would be then? 

For whatever reason Donovan Mitchell and our team in general under Quinn Snyder have been slow starters. Last season pre ASB Mitchell averaged 24.7 on 42/38/82 splits and post ASB he averaged 29.6 on 47/39/87 splits. Then followed that up in the playoffs, playing on a bum ankle, by averaging 32 on 45/43/83 splits. And in last years playoffs he averaged 36 on 54/51/95 splits. 

Mitchell's only 24 years old and if you've watched the last two postseasons you can see that the game is clearly beginning to slow down for him. He was never touted as a great scorer coming into the NBA, he was forced into that role as a rookie when Hayward bounced. 

During the Spurs 4 championship runs with Manu on the team he averaged 9.4 ppg on 38/38/75 splits, 20.8 ppg on 50/44/80 splits, 16.7 ppg on 40/38/84 splits, and 14.3 ppg on 44/39/86 splits. #Efficiency 

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3 minutes ago, Deadpulse said:

I dont argue he had a major impact on the ongoing success of the Spurs during that stretch. I still don't think he was an all around better player than Mitchell. You might be able to argue more consistent. 

I'd argue they aren't even comparable as all around players. Manu is better at everything except turnover economy and shooting less. 

2001-2014 Cumulative RAPM (cumulative impact of how many points better your team is when you're on the court)

1. Tim Duncan

2. LeBron James

3. Dirk Nowitzki

4. Kevin Garnett

5. Kobe Bryant

6. Dwyane Wade

7. Steve Nash

8. Manu Ginobili

9. Shaquille O'Neal

10. Jason Kidd

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/rapm-above-avg

2001-2014 RAPM Cumulative ORAPM

1. Kobe Bryant

2. LeBron James

3. Steve Nash

4. Dirk Nowitzki

5. Dwyane Wade

6. Manu Ginobili

7. Ray Allen

8. Shaquille O'Neal

9. Tim Duncan

10. Baron Davis

So over a 14 year stretch (that he wasn't in the league for the entirety for) the impact stat that has the most correlation with winning rates Ginobili as the best 8th most impactful player overall and 6th most impactful offensive player. This factors in possessions played ie his lack of minutes played. Consider that Mitchell hasn't been a top ten player in anything in any single season.

Not a fan of RAPM, perhaps you think that's biased by playing with great Spurs teams...how about BPM? That's a purely individual metric that strongly correlates with the perceived best players in the league. Here are some eight year stretch's:

Player A-7.7, 8.2, 2.9, 10.6, 9.2 6.6, 7.9, 4.4

Player B-4.6, 7.1, 5.6, 5.0, 7.6, 5.9, 5.8, 5.9

Player C-6.9, 6.8 7.8, 8.3, 6.1, 6.7, 5.4, 6.9

Player D-7.9, 6.8, 10.5, 6.4, 6.7, 5.4, 6.1, 2.9

Player E-1.2, 1.3, 1.9, 3.5

Only one of those players clearly doesn't belong right? The four year stretch of Donovan Mitchell is the clear outlier. Well what about the other 4? All of them had significant career overlap and for the most part look comparable. Those four guys in order are the best consecutive eight year stretches of Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant, Manu Ginobili, and Tracy McGrady.

A heavily winning correlated impact stat says Manu was an elite player. A heavily correlated individual stat paints him as comparable to the best wings of his era. What else can we talk about? How about +/-? He always played on good teams so how does he compare to his fellow big 3 teammates in terms of +/-?

Duncan/Manu/Parker

2004- +11.2/+8.8/+8.3

2005- +16.9/+16.6/+9.5

2006- +9.4/+12.1/+10.4

2007- +13.8/+13.4/+10.4

2008- +8.2/+9.2/+7.8

2009- +4.3/+3.5/+6.1

2010- +7.6/+8.7/+6.2

2011- +9.9/+11.4/+6.4

2012- +8.8/+15.1/+10.6

2013- +10.5/+7.9/+10.5

2014- +6.7/+12.8/+6.9

2015- +6.9/+9.2/+5.6

2016- +13.6/+14.5/+10.8

He and Duncan look pretty even, and Parker is clearly behind them both. So that's another indicator that he's on an elite tier in terms of impact when he's matching one of the greatest winners of all time.

If none of that is doing anything for you, let's compare him straight up to Mitchell.

Donovan Mitchell's best season:

38.5 pts/100  6.5 reb/100  7.6 ast/100  1.4 stl/100  0.4 blk/100  115 ORTG  56.9% TS  21.3 PER  .167 WS/100

Manu Ginobili's 8 year prime averages

30.7 pts/100  7.6 reb/100  7.8 ast/100  2.7 stl/100  0.7 blk/100  117 ORTG  60.1% TS 22.9 PER  .226 WS/100

To give evidence he could volume scorer: 2008 33.9 pts/100 on 61.2% TS when league average was 54%

On top of that a 60.1% TS and 117 ORTG from 2005-2012 (league averages 53-54% and 106-107) are vastly more impressive than 56.9% and 115 ORTG when league averages are 57.2% and 112.3.

So when you say that Mitchell is probably a better all around player, I heavily disagree. The numbers bare out that Manu was a much better offensive player, and while I didn't touch on it here he was also a much better defensive player. I'd argue Manu is at minimum a tier ahead of Mitchell, and if I'm being honest it's probably closer to two or three.

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NYRaider

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Just now, Bullet Club said:

I'd argue they aren't even comparable as all around players. Manu is better at everything except turnover economy and shooting less. 

2001-2014 Cumulative RAPM (cumulative impact of how many points better your team is when you're on the court)

1. Tim Duncan

2. LeBron James

3. Dirk Nowitzki

4. Kevin Garnett

5. Kobe Bryant

6. Dwyane Wade

7. Steve Nash

8. Manu Ginobili

9. Shaquille O'Neal

10. Jason Kidd

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/rapm-above-avg

2001-2014 RAPM Cumulative ORAPM

1. Kobe Bryant

2. LeBron James

3. Steve Nash

4. Dirk Nowitzki

5. Dwyane Wade

6. Manu Ginobili

7. Ray Allen

8. Shaquille O'Neal

9. Tim Duncan

10. Baron Davis

So over a 14 year stretch (that he wasn't in the league for the entirety for) the impact stat that has the most correlation with winning rates Ginobili as the best 8th most impactful player overall and 6th most impactful offensive player. This factors in possessions played ie his lack of minutes played. Consider that Mitchell hasn't been a top ten player in anything in any single season.

Not a fan of RAPM, perhaps you think that's biased by playing with great Spurs teams...how about BPM? That's a purely individual metric that strongly correlates with the perceived best players in the league. Here are some eight year stretch's:

Player A-7.7, 8.2, 2.9, 10.6, 9.2 6.6, 7.9, 4.4

Player B-4.6, 7.1, 5.6, 5.0, 7.6, 5.9, 5.8, 5.9

Player C-6.9, 6.8 7.8, 8.3, 6.1, 6.7, 5.4, 6.9

Player D-7.9, 6.8, 10.5, 6.4, 6.7, 5.4, 6.1, 2.9

Player E-1.2, 1.3, 1.9, 3.5

Only one of those players clearly doesn't belong right? The four year stretch of Donovan Mitchell is the clear outlier. Well what about the other 4? All of them had significant career overlap and for the most part look comparable. Those four guys in order are the best consecutive eight year stretches of Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant, Manu Ginobili, and Tracy McGrady.

A heavily winning correlated impact stat says Manu was an elite player. A heavily correlated individual stat paints him as comparable to the best wings of his era. What else can we talk about? How about +/-? He always played on good teams so how does he compare to his fellow big 3 teammates in terms of +/-?

Duncan/Manu/Parker

2004- +11.2/+8.8/+8.3

2005- +16.9/+16.6/+9.5

2006- +9.4/+12.1/+10.4

2007- +13.8/+13.4/+10.4

2008- +8.2/+9.2/+7.8

2009- +4.3/+3.5/+6.1

2010- +7.6/+8.7/+6.2

2011- +9.9/+11.4/+6.4

2012- +8.8/+15.1/+10.6

2013- +10.5/+7.9/+10.5

2014- +6.7/+12.8/+6.9

2015- +6.9/+9.2/+5.6

2016- +13.6/+14.5/+10.8

He and Duncan look pretty even, and Parker is clearly behind them both. So that's another indicator that he's on an elite tier in terms of impact when he's matching one of the greatest winners of all time.

If none of that is doing anything for you, let's compare him straight up to Mitchell.

Donovan Mitchell's best season:

38.5 pts/100  6.5 reb/100  7.6 ast/100  1.4 stl/100  0.4 blk/100  115 ORTG  56.9% TS  21.3 PER  .167 WS/100

Manu Ginobili's 8 year prime averages

30.7 pts/100  7.6 reb/100  7.8 ast/100  2.7 stl/100  0.7 blk/100  117 ORTG  60.1% TS 22.9 PER  .226 WS/100

To give evidence he could volume scorer: 2008 33.9 pts/100 on 61.2% TS when league average was 54%

On top of that a 60.1% TS and 117 ORTG from 2005-2012 (league averages 53-54% and 106-107) are vastly more impressive than 56.9% and 115 ORTG when league averages are 57.2% and 112.3.

So when you say that Mitchell is probably a better all around player, I heavily disagree. The numbers bare out that Manu was a much better offensive player, and while I didn't touch on it here he was also a much better defensive player. I'd argue Manu is at minimum a tier ahead of Mitchell, and if I'm being honest it's probably closer to two or three.

TLDR 

How much PER, TS, ORTG, LeBron, RAPTOR, WAR, RAW, VRAM, does Luka have to get to beat Rudy Gobert in the Olympics or win a playoff series son?

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4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Yes. I love how on one end you love a stat padder that loses in Luka and on the other hand equally love a guy with limited stats because he contributed to winning. Pick a side dude.

My side is understanding basketball. Something you've proven to be worse than me at considering I'm undefeated against you in sig bets.

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1 minute ago, Bullet Club said:

My side is understanding basketball. Something you've proven to be worse than me at considering I'm undefeated against you in sig bets.

All that basketball knowledge means nothing, Luka is like Russell Westbrook. Great stats, folds late in games and doesn't win. Accept it. 

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5 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Mitchell's only 24 years old and if you've watched the last two postseasons you can see that the game is clearly beginning to slow down for him.

Unfortunately, it's also true that the player is beginning to slow down as injuries begin to take their toll - which you hate to see in a player so young with such a vibrant future.......ultimately unable to realize their (star?) potential because they just cant stay healthy. Oh well. What are you gonna do? Sorry dude  :)

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Just now, NYRaider said:

All that basketball knowledge means nothing, Luka is like Russell Westbrook. Great stats, folds late in games and doesn't win. Accept it. 

No, that's just you admitting your lack of understanding of the game again.

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1 minute ago, Leader said:

Unfortunately, it's also true that the player is beginning to slow down as injuries begin to take their toll - which you hate to see in a player so young with such a vibrant future.......ultimately unable to realize their (star?) potential because they just cant stay healthy. Oh well. What are you gonna do? Sorry dude  :)

 

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