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Week 2: Bears vs Bengals


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Bears hope to go vertical vs. Bengals, a closer look at David Montgomery’s performance and more on the offense

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Allen Robinson #12 of the Chicago Bears runs as he is chased by Sebastian Joseph-Day #69 of the Los Angeles Rams during a 34-14 loss to the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
 
By Kevin Fishbain Sep 15, 2021 comment-icon@2x.png 80 save-icon@2x.png
 

The key members of the Bears’ offense are on the same page — the lack of any deep passing attack in Week 1 was more a function of the opponent than anything.

That certainly could prove to be true. The Rams tied with Washington for giving up the fewest pass plays of 20 yards or longer last season (36). The Rams’ scheme, albeit with a new coordinator this season, is known for forcing teams to be patient.

It’s fair to be a bit skeptical. Andy Dalton actually impressed with his deep balls during training camp, but that’s not necessarily something he’s known for. We are well aware of how inept this offense has been at pushing the ball downfield in recent seasons, regardless of the quarterback.

This week, the Bears host a Bengals defense that allowed 57 pass plays of 20-plus yards last season, tied for the fifth most in the NFL.

That’s where we begin this week’s look at the offense, reviewing some advanced stats from the loss to the Rams and looking ahead to this matchup versus the Bengals.

All stats from TruMedia or Next Gen Stats

(Not) going deep

Dalton averaged 4.29 air yards per pass in Los Angeles. That ranked 31st among 32 quarterbacks in Week 1. The Falcons were the only other team in the league with zero passes that went for at least 20 yards.

pass-chart_DAL659900_2021-REG-1_16315031

“One thing when we look back at the game, we were limited in that area,” Dalton said Wednesday. “We weren’t able to take very many chances downfield. … It’s something that we wish we could have done a little bit more in that game. I think we understand that, we understand how we want to play.”

Dalton added, “It’s just the way they play defense. They try to keep everything in front of you and with a good front and a guy like Aaron Donald … that’s just how they play.”

The Bears tried to go vertical. Darnell Mooney made a double move early in the fourth quarter on first down, but Dalton was sacked.

It’s one thing to not be able to get anything going behind the defense, but the Rams truly did keep the receivers in front of them as they shut down yards after catch. The Bears averaged 3.52 yards after catch per reception, good for 28th in the league.

“For (the Rams), they’re not a heavy blitz team, so typically they have a majority of their guys in coverage, which is all the time,” Allen Robinson said. “You may see some fire zone stuff every blue moon or something like that where you kind of catch the ball in the zone and get more yards after the catch. But they typically trust their front.

“They have about seven guys dropping in coverage, and then all eyes are on the quarterback. They’re pretty good at triggering once the ball is released from the quarterback’s hands, all eyes are on the quarterbacks, they’re kind of rallying to the tackles.”

Robinson, who averaged 5.8 yards per catch, is hopeful that Cincinnati’s scheme will provide more opportunities to go downfield.

“They play a one-high defense, so typically in the NFL you’re able to try to get some more down-the-field throws, if you will, against one-high safety,” he said. “And it’s a press-man team, so they don’t play as soft and off as the Rams did.”

Here’s what Kirk Cousins did against the Bengals — he had a lot of pass attempts with the Vikings trailing most of the game, not to mention going a full overtime period.

pass-chart_COU709400_2021-REG-1_16314841

If it’s another week of short passes, it’ll be difficult for the Bears coaches and quarterback to say it was about scheme.

How good was Montgomery?

David Montgomery was the Bears’ best offensive player on the field, and he also had one of the best rushing performances in the league in Week 1.

Montgomery’s 41-yard run reached a top speed of 20.8 mph, per Next Gen Stats, the fifth best in the league and second best for a run. It also was the second-most “remarkable rush” based on expected yards gained — the tracking data predicted a 4-yard rush based on the moment Montgomery got the handoff.

His “efficiency” was 2.49, which was the best score in the NFL. Next Gen Stats calculates this “by taking the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards) per rushing yards gained.”

Montgomery gained 5.50 adjusted yards after contact, fourth best among running backs.

“I was very careful today and he teased me. But when I talked to him about the positive things he did, he immediately told me he thought I was acting like I was surprised,” offensive coordinator Bill Lazor said. “Of course, I’m not surprised. I think that’s what we’re expecting of David. I think he’s had a great offseason. He had a great camp. I’m happy for him, and I’m happy for us that that’s where he is again.”

carry-chart_MON487374_2021-REG-1_1631503

Said Robinson, “I think if you give Dave some space, he’s going to make guys miss. He was one of the top backs when he was in college at making guys miss, so he’s been able to do that his entire career. So that’s something that he does. I’m never really too overwhelmed when I’m seeing him play and have a very positive performance. Dave comes out and does the work each and every day. He’s a person who prepares well and prepares to play well.”

The 2020 Bengals ranked 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.1) and 29th in total rushing yards allowed. In Week 1, though, they held one of the league’s top runners, Dalvin Cook, to 61 yards on 20 carries.

Robinson self-critical after opener

There are a few plays that the Bears’ top receiver wants back after rewatching Sunday’s loss to the Rams.

“I thought I could’ve played a little better,” Robinson said. “I think there was one, (Jalen) Ramsey got a hand on it. I could’ve possibly put myself in a better situation to make that play. There was one more that I think Andy threw and I could’ve maybe come up with, I think it was like a stick route.

“Other than that, I thought I was able to create separation a little bit in the slot on some of those … first-and-10, second-and-10 plays. I thought I had good play speed, but still just, first game of the season. I’m going to continue to be hard on myself and critique myself. … I didn’t (contribute) as much as I would’ve liked to help that translate to a win.”

And yes, Robinson did see his Next Gen route tree that went viral.

route-chart_ROB365982_2021-REG-1_1631503

“I guess we knew what we were trying to get accomplished by just being able to get the ball out and try to get more yards after the catch rather than air yards,” he said. “I wasn’t too taken aback after seeing it.”

The best sequence for Dalton and Robinson came late in the first half, when they connected on pass plays of 9 and 8 yards in the span of three plays, helping get the offense in position for Montgomery’s touchdown run.

Robinson did have a team-high 11 targets, which is where he should be, but six catches isn’t an ideal percentage.

The Bengals don’t have a Ramsey. They’re going to challenge Robinson with Eli Apple or Chidobe Awuzie when he’s on the outside, but he’s going to be working from the slot often this season, where it’ll be former Steeler Mike Hilton.

A full series coming for Fields? Or … not?

There was an interesting exchange with Lazor, who is in a bit of a tough position to answer philosophical questions about Justin Fields.

Asked if the rookie can handle a full series, Lazor responded, “I would have said after the preseason that he’s moving quickly and ready for whatever’s thrown at him. So I don’t think anything’s changed.”

So, why not get him out there for a full series?

“I think Matt (Nagy) has probably addressed what his philosophy is on the quarterback position,” he said. “I don’t think that’s any different. I don’t think there’s any reason for me to answer that.”

Lazor isn’t calling plays, and he’s not going to tip his hand on any plans for Fields against the Bengals. But he’s the offensive coordinator for a team that has a highly-touted quarterback serving as a backup to a veteran Lazor knows very well. This is likely to get more awkward for the offensive coordinator as Fields’ reps increase, and if Dalton doesn’t elevate his game.

Earlier in the news conference, Lazor said Fields “looked like he belonged” in the five plays.

“He looked like he could be successful,” Lazor said. “Nothing was too big for him, which we didn’t think it would be. Looked like he had fun.”

Injury update

The Bears got some good news at Wednesday’s practice, as both left tackle Jason Peters (quad) and nose tackle Eddie Goldman (knee/ankle) participated. Both were limited.

It’s usually a good sign for Sunday’s game when a player can practice Wednesday. Peters left Sunday’s game and didn’t return. If he can’t play against the Bengals, it’d be Elijah Wilkinson. Backup left tackle Larry Borom (ankle) did not practice.

Robert Quinn (back) was limited. Khalil Mack was not on the injury report after being listed there all last week with a groin injury.

Mooney, Marquise Goodwin and Joel Iyiegbuniwe were all full participants in practice.

(Photo of Allen Robinson: Harry How / Getty Images)

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My thoughts on this one:

-I can't confidently bet on us with Dalton as the starter.... I just don't think the offense is capable of matching what the defense gives up with him under center checking down all day, and I'm not sure he'll be capable of doing deeper shots

-It'll be 90*+ on Sunday and Peters already has a quadriceps problem.... I doubt he can last the game, which means Wilkerson at LT.... if we're lucky.

-Combine that with Dalton's lack of mobility, and Cinci almost assuredly going to run a 2 deep coverage to force us to dink and dunk all day, because they've already seen that all they need to do is put 2 safeties on the Field and it will immediately force our team to run sub 10 yard routes the entire time.

- Defense I think bounces back in this one (I mean it couldn't really get worse than last week), but they're still not the 2018 team by any stretch, and I think our offense is going to need 28 points to be over 50% chance to win this one.

-I was very pleasantly surprised by the running game last week, even if the rams where light in the box.... the OL played massively over expectations. I'm inclined to think there's going to be some "coming back to reality" here this week, and Bengals will be willing to stack the box if the running game has success early....now in theory that should open up things further than 10 yards, and we might see the Mooney breakout game if Monty is getting stacked and stuffed...... but again, I can't really believe in Dalton until I see him actually doing something.

-I'd put the odds of Fields playing more than a few gimmick plays like last week under 20% (still well above where I had him last week.... and I think he's the outright starter next week).... but if he goes in full time by the mid 3rd quarter, I think the team rallies and we end up winning in a nail biter comeback.

Final score prediction: 31-24 Bengals W

Edited by Epyon
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On the offensive side: the offense is going to open up more after choosing a scheme last week that hindered us all day (and we never adjusted). I don’t know how Montgomery went off against the Rams D and bears terrible line but I imagine we go a little run heavy again. We’ll try to spread the field and bit more and Robinson will play with a little fire after being cognizant of slip ups last week. Kmet looks like he plays w heart. 
 

Defense though is just as average as the offense. Goldman could help if he’s back after being out for so long. Takes a little pressure off Mack and hicks. Secondary is historically bad, as I told my coworkers at work who were up on the defense before the season started. Bengals WRs should have their way with us but I imagine the game will be prettier than last week even if it results in an L. 

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Cincy has some very talented and productive WRs and Burrows is back now so again this week the secondary will have their hands full.

If whatever "stern talking too" they got from Desai earlier this week and the Ram game vids didn't embarrass them into getting their **** together and that was as good as it gets we're in for a very long season.  However, I do believe they can tighten it up some this week but will it be enough?

I dunno what to expect offensively because Cincy is far more likely to throw some blitzing at Dalton keeping him from having the time to throw downfield and also creating some havoc for an OL that didn't face that last week and has yet to pull together 100%.

If he's smart Nagy will use Monty and Williams far more in the passing game this week and use Kmet to challenge their LBs and Safeties to keep them from putting 7 or 8 men in the box to stop Monty.  IMHO the productivity of the RBs might make the difference this week.

But since Nagy never seems to do what he should do I don't count on the best happening.

And as for using Fields as his "chess piece" for a few gadget plays he should hope like hell Fields doesn't get injured running that crap.  Play him or don't play him but the dual QB stuff never seems to work out well.

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Man oh man that passing chart is one of the most pathetic things I have ever seen in sports...it's amazing Monty was able to run for over 100 yards when we at no point tried to truly back that defence up...

On to the next on and I think we are in for a really close game...we know they have talent at WR and a QB who can get them the ball against our CBs...the weakness should be pass pro and we need to aggressively attack that OL to try and cut down on the amount of easy completions and by attack the LOS we should hopefully be able to keep Mixon in check as well...

Defensively their DL is really underrated IMO with a lot of good players starting and in terms of depth...I don't however see much behind it to worry us so lets actually try and pass the ball more than 16 yards this time...

And for all that is holy give Fields 8-12 plays with at least a series of proper drop back and pass in there...the trick plays are one thing but give this guy a chance to show why he should be starting.

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1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

Man oh man that passing chart is one of the most pathetic things I have ever seen in sports...it's amazing Monty was able to run for over 100 yards when we at no point tried to truly back that defence up...

 

He ran so well because they stayed back.  They invited the run as a strategy.  

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1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

And for all that is holy give Fields 8-12 plays with at least a series of proper drop back and pass in there...the trick plays are one thing but give this guy a chance to show why he should be starting.

If they give him most all QB runs and trick plays again at least one major media member is going to call Nagy out on it the following week.  

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