Trevor Lawrence is looking like a bad pick for the Jags

[ET80]

13 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

but football is in fact a team sport.

[lancerman]

1 hour ago, .Buzz said:

Sorry for asking you for legit reasoning behind your post besides “lol he has barely any TD’s.” Big ask around here to expect an actual analysis outside of looking at a box score when you give an out there take.

Cant say I see either of those as legit reasons (nor accurate) but too each their own.

Let’s flip this around. What does he do that gives anyone confidence that he’s going to make it? He’s not the first rookie to be on a very bad offense. I keep seeing one off isolated plays getting posted to show “flashes” but you could do that with any rookie QB. Hell Geno Smith always had a handful of plays a game that impressed people when he was early in his career. You could pick some of the biggest busts of all time and make the exact same defense. 
 

Some egregious **** is being dismissed here by showing a few tweets of one or two half decent plays that ended in drops. I’m willing to hold off on calling him a bust or something, but we are at point right now where if Lawrence turns this around and just becomes average, it would be one of the biggest turnarounds ever. And he didn’t get drafted to be Alex Smith. 
 

He’s in the last two weeks of the season, looked very bad against some of the worst defenses in the league in recent weeks. It’s past the point of it all being excused by the supporting cast. 

[notthatbluestuff]

Not calling him a bust by any means, but the Jags HAVE to get the coaching hire right. If they don't, Lawrence very well could end up as one of the great "what if?" stories. 

[.Buzz]

31 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Let’s flip this around. What does he do that gives anyone confidence that he’s going to make it? He’s not the first rookie to be on a very bad offense. I keep seeing one off isolated plays getting posted to show “flashes” but you could do that with any rookie QB. Hell Geno Smith always had a handful of plays a game that impressed people when he was early in his career. You could pick some of the biggest busts of all time and make the exact same defense. 
 

Some egregious **** is being dismissed here by showing a few tweets of one or two half decent plays that ended in drops. I’m willing to hold off on calling him a bust or something, but we are at point right now where if Lawrence turns this around and just becomes average, it would be one of the biggest turnarounds ever. And he didn’t get drafted to be Alex Smith. 
 

He’s in the last two weeks of the season, looked very bad against some of the worst defenses in the league in recent weeks. It’s past the point of it all being excused by the supporting cast. 

His pre-snap/setting protections and overall mental side of things is so much further along than most rookies. He is seeing the field and able to diagnose what is happening. Most of these rookie QBs who fail, that’s usually what holds them back. 
 

You look at where this OL was last year versus this year (with the same group of 5 minus one due to injury) and it’s now viewed as an average unit. That’s all due to his pocket awareness and movement. He took a unit that by most metrics was one of the worst and has the same one (with a backup RG) now in the middle of the pack statistically in most metrics.

You have a guy with all this arm talent (and those cutups show it) being put in this little box because you don’t have anyone who can take the top off a defense which is causing entire defenses to not respect it and sit on routes. I guess I’m just curious what he’s supposed to do with a WR corps that lacks any speed threat (outside of a converted corner/return man that took on the role for several weeks before getting hurt) that is also the worst in the NFL at getting seperation and curious what the expectation should be for this special sort of circumstances he’s in? 
 

I legitimately haven’t had a game this season watching him where I was like, “Oh no,” as far as being worried with any type of tendencies or issues or things looking to big for him. Being a Jaguars fan, I know what that looks like.

[.Buzz]

Ultimately none of this matters if the Jaguars botch another HC hire and they fail to support him with talent. No QB who comes into the NFL in this type of situation is succeeding, and ultimately if you continue to saddle him with a poor cast around him with coaching that doesn’t continue to develop him and bring him along these things will slowly evaporate (we’ve already seen his mechanics and footwork slide compared to earlier in the season). 
 

But right now, going into year 2, I have zero worries with Lawrence the player. Everything I’m worried about has to do with the organization surrounding him.

[-Hope-]

4 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

You look at where this OL was last year versus this year (with the same group of 5 minus one due to injury) and it’s now viewed as an average unit. That’s all due to his pocket awareness and movement. He took a unit that by most metrics was one of the worst and has the same one (with a backup RG) now in the middle of the pack statistically in most metrics.

interestingly, PFF has a stat that estimates QB responsibility for sacks and has lawrence at 2nd worst in the league (as in, among QBs, he's responsible for the 2nd-highest percentage of his own sacks). i have no idea what the veracity of this stat is or how they calculate it- patrick mahomes is their worst this year. in the limited amount i've seen of both of them, i'd say i've seen a lot more of mahomes running into sacks than lawrence. but an odd little footnote i guess.

[.Buzz]

4 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

interestingly, PFF has a stat that estimates QB responsibility for sacks and has lawrence at 2nd worst in the league (as in, among QBs, he's responsible for the 2nd-highest percentage of his own sacks). i have no idea what the veracity of this stat is or how they calculate it- patrick mahomes is their worst this year. in the limited amount i've seen of both of them, i'd say i've seen a lot more of mahomes running into sacks than lawrence. but an odd little footnote i guess.

Interesting stat for sure. Think that could be possible while still maneuvering around the pocket and allowing less opportunities unless I’m reading your description wrong.

[-Hope-]

3 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Interesting stat for sure. Think that could be possible while still maneuvering around the pocket and allowing less opportunities unless I’m reading your description wrong.

it's also not really a death sentence- if there's one thing rookie QBs almost universally struggle with it's pocket presence. and looking a little bit further, the stat seems to always have mobile QBs on the worse end of the list, which feels a bit off- like, part of the thing with guys like mahomes, murray, russell wilson etc etc is you take the occasional nightmare play in exchange for what they can do with their legs. so idk

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

interestingly, PFF has a stat that estimates QB responsibility for sacks and has lawrence at 2nd worst in the league (as in, among QBs, he's responsible for the 2nd-highest percentage of his own sacks). i have no idea what the veracity of this stat is or how they calculate it- patrick mahomes is their worst this year. in the limited amount i've seen of both of them, i'd say i've seen a lot more of mahomes running into sacks than lawrence. but an odd little footnote i guess.

It's definitely something that is worth exploring, but just like so many stats that come out now, its greatly subjective. But I do believe it's worth checking into because I think far more sacks are the responsibility of the QB than we as fans in general like to think. 

[ET80]

Just reading this thread, I'm getting two trains of thought:

1. Trevor Lawrence is playing poorly.

2. Trevor Lawrence is a victim of his circumstances in Jacksonville.

Fair?

So, question - can it be both? Yes, the situation is bad in Jacksonville, AND Trevor Lawrence isn't playing well?

[.Buzz]

Just now, ET80 said:

Just reading this thread, I'm getting two trains of thought:

1. Trevor Lawrence is playing poorly.

2. Trevor Lawrence is a victim of his circumstances in Jacksonville.

Fair?

So, question - can it be both? Yes, the situation is bad in Jacksonville, AND Trevor Lawrence isn't playing well?

Holy hell ET has cracked the code.

[ET80]

On 12/27/2021 at 4:42 PM, .Buzz said:

Holy hell ET has cracked the code.

Holy ****... am I Neo!?

Do I get to learn Kung Fu?

[KhanYouDigIt]

3 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Just reading this thread, I'm getting two trains of thought:

1. Trevor Lawrence is playing poorly.

2. Trevor Lawrence is a victim of his circumstances in Jacksonville.

Fair?

So, question - can it be both? Yes, the situation is bad in Jacksonville, AND Trevor Lawrence isn't playing well?

How much do I have to Venmo you to lock this puppy up?

[KingOfNewYork]

3 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Losing Chark early in the season was big. I don’t know if it was by design or what but after he went out, Trevor became a game manager.

It will be nice to get ETN back but who knows how explosive he will be after Lisfranc. No clue what the timeline will be for J-Rob for tearing his Achilles. 

After taking Hutch or Thibs at 1, everything via the Draft/FA needs to be about protecting him/getting him weapons.

Anything else and they have failed.

Yup, it’s a simple task yet difficult to execute but the opportunity is there. Khan gets the right man in the building and you’re 2 years away from contention especially in that division at the moment when it can easily flip. 

[ET80]

1 minute ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

How much do I have to Venmo you to lock this puppy up?

Take my 401k, multiply it by three.

So... $6.42.