Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, LeotheLion said: The outcome is all that matters though. That thinking is why most coaches get fired or are bad at their jobs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Towerbridge Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Forge said: I put forth the idea that most of the coaches that have ever lived have been bad so that maybe doesn't help your case. And yet they would have kicked the field goal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, LeotheLion said: The outcome is all that matters though. But you don't know the outcome when making a decision. So you go with the decision that gives you the best chance at a positive outcome. But probabilities are just that. Not absolutes. Sometimes it won't work. If you judge based on outcome rather than at the time the decision was made you are doing it wrong 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Towerbridge said: And yet they would have kicked the field goal Strive to be like the people bad at their jobs. Strong strategy to live life by 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 All coaches would kick the FG !!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Mark Schlereth of all people said this once and it sticks with me. A 60+ air yard bomb for a TD is almost almost always a terrible process. Because the outcome in that situation may have been good, but the overwhelming amount of situations where that is attempted almost always result in a negative play for the offense. Just because something ends up working out doesn't mean it was a good idea or what you should be molding your offense around doing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJerseypaint Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 We forgetting that Hopkins was cut from the Skins and was signed after Chargers cut their other kicker? It's not like they have Justin Tucker. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Forge said: Thats how you end up with Jimmy G and Jared Goff making nearly 30 million and being your starting quarterback. That strategy isn't exactly flawless either lol Both teams were 1 quarter away from winning a SB... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thelonebillsfan said: That thinking is why most coaches get fired or are bad at their jobs. We literally saw bad coaching today. Chasing a 1% increase in win probability versus thinking 3 straight incompletions from the 5 is maybe a sign to call it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LeotheLion said: Both teams were 1 quarter away from winning a SB... Results are all that matter. They didn't win (and in Jimmy's case, he wasn't the greatest reason for them to get there in the first place lol) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 For the analytic folks, you'd agree that Staley screwed up then when it was 20-13 by kicking the PAT instead of going for 2, right? He could have made it a 2 score game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, LeotheLion said: We literally saw bad coaching today. Chasing a 1% increase in win probability versus thinking 3 straight incompletions from the 5 is maybe a sign to call it. So they shouldnt make moves that increase win probability? They had the right play for a td, but some crazy ish happened on it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Pats#1 said: 14 minutes ago, mse326 said: Is that what you think the majority of coaching is, just making a decision when to go for it? You don't seem to understand what analytics are either. The inputs are a combination of historical stats, current team stats (for both teams), and coach estimations at the individual level to make adjustments. Much can be done with just stats but no one has ever claimed everything can. But if you are going to go against the analytics it should be based on something that they don't take into account, not just "intuition" which is completely baseless. You believe analytics takes every facet of the game into effect with regards to making specific individual calls…I disagree. The analytics are a compilation of historical records of prior similar events but not identical. Everything you just claimed analytics was can be done by a computer infinitely faster than a human. You are arguing that analytics takes into account all relevant factors. If what you are saying is accurate, why is the human aspect needed when making any call for in game situations? There is a plethora of historical data for every single play throughout the game, just like the go for it situations. If you think analytics should be followed undoubtedly in all “go for it” situations, why does that not continue through to the entire game, it would only make sense since it gives you the greatest % of chance to succeed. Read the bolded and tell me again how I said analytics takes into consideration everything? It doesn't work great on a individual level so the coach makes adjustments there. Then during the game the coach has to make adjustments based on things like injury, fatigue, etc. Not once did I say it takes into consideration everything. What I said was intution is baseless so if you are going to go against the analytics it should be based on a concrete reason. As for the last paragraph analytics are used during the game. That is why passing is used so much more now than before because the analytics have shown it to have a better win probability than heavy running. But plays also aren't run just individually like that. What you do does effect what you do next. They aren't completely independent. There is a lot of game theory that would go into it. You have to call plays that don't necessarilly give you the best chance on that individual play in order for the game play calling as a whole reach its optimum. And those aren't something that you can just plug into a forumla. The best you can get is success probabilites for different play types and the optimum mix of the play types. You then have to make the decisions on when to employ them. That is analytics and they absolutely are being used throughout the game and not just on decisions of when to go for it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Staley just reinforced this in the press conference. (paraphrasing roughly below) This is what we do. Its what we will do. We have this QB and this team. We were playing the Chiefs. I like this guy. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, LeotheLion said: For the analytic folks, you'd agree that Staley screwed up then when it was 20-13 by kicking the PAT instead of going for 2, right? He could have made it a 2 score game. I literally said that multiple times in this thread yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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