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Week 15 TNF: Kansas City Chiefs 9-4 at Los Angeles Chargers 8-5

Broncofan

By Broncofan
in NFL General

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Pick the Week 15 TNF and likely AFCW winner!  

33 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins tonight?


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Chiefer

Chiefer

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Mahomes didn't even have a good game last night tbh

302 yards and 2 TDs in the 4th

Yeah you’re right, shouldve had 3 TDs and 400 yards in the 4th. That would be a good game

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Xenos

Xenos

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Here’s a snippet of what Daniel Popper thought.

https://theathletic.com/3021855/2021/12/17/popper-brandon-staleys-fourth-down-decisions-were-sound-even-if-the-results-werent-there-for-the-chargers/
 

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The decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the Chiefs’ 5-yard line on the opening offensive possession increased the the Chargers’ odds of winning by 3.1 percent, according to Ben Baldwin’s fourth-down model. Herbert delivered a perfect ball to Donald Parham in the back of the end zone. In a scary scene, Parham slammed his head into the turf on his fall. He dropped the ball. And he was stretchered off the field and transported to a local hospital for further evaluation.

If Parham makes this catch, no one questions this call. It would have been regarded as a great decision, like the Chargers’ fourth-and-goal attempt from the 4-yard line two weeks ago at the Bengals that resulted in a Keenan Allen touchdown. But the rationale for whether a decision is good or bad cannot rely on the result of the play. It must rely on the inherent value of the decision itself.

The decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the Chiefs’ 1-yard line on the final play of the half increased the Chargers’ chances at winning by 2 percent, according to Baldwin’s model. Daniel Sorensen batted Herbert’s attempt to Allen at the line of scrimmage. But, again, the result of the play does not make it a bad decision.

The decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from the Chiefs’ 27-yard line early in the third quarter increased the Chargers’ chances at winning by 4.4 percent, according to Baldwin’s model. Herbert threw to tight end Jared Cookon a short route to the left. Linebacker Nick Bolton jumped the throw and broke it up.

All these decisions improved the Chargers’ chances at winning. They also converted on two fourth downs. One, a Herbert sneak, led to a touchdown in the second quarter. Another, a fourth-and-1 handoff to Joshua Kelley, set the Chargers up with a first-and-goal from the Chiefs 4-yard line.

 

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Xenos

Xenos

Posted
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8 hours ago, Nightmare said:

Not sure why ‘going for it on every 4th down’ is seen as this heroic attempt to win at all costs.

Sometimes taking the three points is simply the smarter play. And playing smart rather than reckless will often give you a better chance of winning football games.

I kind of get it from the point of view that the Chargers have been historically dreadful at things like important kicking situations, and maybe Staley is just trying to shed that narrative. But at what point is he just creating a new issue where his continuous 4th down attempts also cost the team games? To me that’s what happened here.

Reckless implies Staley is gambling, which would not increase your win probability. There are specific reasons, numerical and otherwise, that he goes for it. This was after the Browns game.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/10/11/mmqb-week-5-green-bay-packers-veterans-chargers-fourth-down
 

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“You gotta start with the premise that when you see it as an advantage situation, it makes it a lot, I think, easier,” Staley told me after the game. “We’re not gonna gamble. That’s not what we’re doing. We’re seeing it as an advantage situation for us. “

The first one, though, even to Staley, was a little different—a fourth-and-2 from the Chargers’ 24, with the Browns up 27–13 and 10:34 left in the third quarter. Failure to convert there would’ve put Cleveland in position to put the Chargers three touchdowns back, and make it pretty tough, based on how the Browns can run the ball, to come back.

So why go for it there?

“We needed to go for that because defensively we weren’t playing well,” Staley said, bluntly. “And we needed time to make some adjustments, to get our composure, and I felt like we get a first down there, now we get some more time to make things happen defensively. And then certainly our goal is to score, so when it was a two-score game, I thought keeping our offense out there was the best strategy for both sides of the ball.”

Also, he continued, “I liked the down-and-distance against that team and kinda how they played, because we knew what they like in that particular down-and-distance and felt good about the calls that we had up in that circumstance.” Sure enough, Austin Ekeler cut off left guard for nine yards, and nine plays later, Staley and his staff were at it again on a fourth-and-7 from the Browns’ 22—with phenom Justin Herbert hitting Keenan Allen for 12 yards to move the chains again. 

Two plays later, Herbert scrambled for a nine-yard touchdown to complete a 14-play, 84-yard drive and, naturally, the Chargers went for two and converted to make it 27–21.

That set up an absolute shootout in the second half, during which, on one 11-play, 75-yard fourth-quarter drive, the Chargers converted two more fourth downs—one being the fourth-and-4 on which Williams drew pass interference and the other a 20-yard connection to Keenan Allen on fourth-and-8. And that was the precursor to a couple of scores late for Ekeler, one on the ground, the other through the air, to seize the lead for good late in the fourth quarter.

And while all this sounds really great to talk about just as a premise, there’s another piece of the puzzle that Staley can fit into that “advantage situation” category. Basically, every snap that Herbert takes, at this point, feels like an advantage situation for his team, and that’s given his coaches a lot of leeway to do these things.

“A lot [of it is having Justin],” he said. “Because on some of those shorter ones, we’re trying to give him a lot of options, whether we have a run tagged with an RPO. Or an advantage look where he has the option to throw it. And then in some of the passing game, the longer fourth downs, the other thing that he has going for him is that he has his legs. Like if it’s a tight pocket, he can get out of trouble and make something happen if it’s maybe not within the rhythm and timing of the play. 

“So if the design is there, I know that he can make the throw and that we have got a bunch of guys who can win in the passing game. And then at the same time, if we don’t have that design come to life, then he can make stuff happen with his legs, and that’s what happened a couple times today. Justin is the best player on the field.”

 

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Xenos

Xenos

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13 minutes ago, Joe_is_the_best said:

This game shows that analytics are a tool, but shouldn’t make your decisions for you. You have to play the odds, but sometimes taking the easy points is the best decision. The Chargers were moving the ball at will. You have to take the points.

No, it just means that analytics can’t determine execution or specific play calling on those downs. It wasn’t wrong to go for it if the odds are in your favor.

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kramxel

kramxel

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Posted (edited)

Before Derwin left the game, Kelce had a grand total of 2 catches. After he and Tevaun Campbell went down, Kelce had 8 catches, and the Chiefs racked up the yards on a depleted Chargers secondary, on 4th quarter and OT. 

 

Edited by kramxel
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