Forge Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, onejayhawk said: The problem with going all analytics is that you can screw up you momentum. Sometimes you need points, even if it's just three of them. Goose eggs are hard on your own defense. J Suppose it depends on whether or not you think momentum is a real thing. Momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Forge said: Suppose it depends on whether or not you think momentum is a real thing. Momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. Considering the Chiefs managed a grand total of 0 points from these momentum shifts I'm gonna go ahead and say it probably wasn't a meaningful factor. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Forge said: Suppose it depends on whether or not you think momentum is a real thing. Momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. Unless it rains or they test positive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Also the actual, bonehead move was calling a RB dive from the 2 on 3rd and goal. It's weird that nobody is talking about that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, LeotheLion said: I just don't understand how Staley thinks 4th and 5 is justifiable but not a 2 pointer there... Especially if the logic is we are playing the Chiefs. Put it in Herbert's hand and not Mahomes if you want to be aggressive. 1. its 1 pts vs 4 pts in gain that is a big difference 2. Field position and the chiefs resultant points expectancy is factored into a 4th down call, but not a 2 pt converstion 3. The 2 pt play would have a clear and identifiable effect on the chiefs decision making. Yes if you make it, it's a 2 score game. If you don't they have the tie and perhaps the lead themselves if they deciside to go for 2, so there is even more focus on the resultant decisions that gives the Chiefs. They are very different situations. Like I said I would have gone for 2, but the things to consider are too different to put the two side by side and say if one then the other. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, LeotheLion said: Which is a major flaw with Staley tonight. The whole point of an analytics approach is you win in the long run. No argument there. Specific to modern times where the XP has been moved back, I'm way more into going for 2 to go up by 9 and at worst be up by 7. Even if you don't get it, it's not quite the lock that they are getting 7 points for a touchdown. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I've been waiting for a team to "moneyball" the QB position for ages. Then we're cooking with some real gas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thelonebillsfan said: None of you are ready for when a team REALLY goes all in on being the Oakland A's of Football rather than making like, 5-10 analytics based playcalls a game lol. This is baby stuff. I don't think it's a coincidence that a big portion of the analytics crowd here, and in this discussion specifically are also regulars in the baseball forum. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 (edited) Most of these analytics calls are close calls. When you are down 15 and score a TD do you get the 2 now or save it for later? You are not stupid either way. Its feel. None of what Staley did tonight was stupid. If he kicked 3 FGs he would not have been stupid even if it meant he lost by 1 in regulation due to a longish kick return or a drive starting on the 27 ending differently. I would have done it differently is not the same as a coach making an obvious blunder. See the last 2 Texans coaches for reference. B O B ran a handoff on a play where 3 knees end the game. The handoff was fumbled and the other team got the ball. The Texans still won, but B O B was still a moron. Edited December 17, 2021 by SkippyX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, mse326 said: I don't think it's a coincidence that a big portion of the analytics crowd here, and in this discussion specifically are also regulars in the baseball forum. I hesitate to even call most of this analytics like it's the most basic percentage based decision making here we haven't even BEGUN to delve into the reality of what actual analytics based football decisions and processes would be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Forge said: No argument there. Specific to modern times where the XP has been moved back, I'm way more into going for 2 to go up by 9 and at worst be up by 7. Even if you don't get it, it's not quite the lock that they are getting 7 points for a touchdown. Plus as analytics does creep in more coaches are seriously considering going for 2 to take the lead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, mse326 said: 10 minutes ago, mse326 said: 10 minutes ago, mse326 said: 1. its 1 pts vs 4 pts in gain that is a big difference 2. Field position and the chiefs resultant points expectancy is factored into a 4th down call, but not a 2 pt converstion 3. The 2 pt play would have a clear and identifiable effect on the chiefs decision making. Yes if you make it, it's a 2 score game. If you don't they have the tie and perhaps the lead themselves if they deciside to go for 2, so there is even more focus on the resultant decisions that gives the Chiefs. They are very different situations. Like I said I would have gone for 2, but the things to consider are too different to put the two side by side and say if one then the other. Your 3 points are valid but they are both decisions that have a conservative less point option and an aggressive more point option. I'd guess the aggressive more point option increases win probability by a few points and factors in your 3 points. I already would have liked to see a few of those drives end with 3 but I take bigger offense to inconsistentencies with these decisions. Especially when the reasoning behind the early aggressiveness is you want to trust Herbert and not let Mahomes beat us. If that's the reasoning then you have to try and make it a 9 score game. Especially because even if you don't get it, the Chiefs are likely going PAT anyway. Edited December 17, 2021 by LeotheLion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Reminder that counting cards in blackjack may only give you about a 2% bump. Edge sorting in baccarat maybe 5%. Margins are thin. You scrape and claw to improve your odds as much as possible. It's no different... If you stick with it 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kael Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, LeotheLion said: I agree. I hated what Staley did tonight lol I disagree. Brandon Staley and his approach to football is exactly what the Chargers need. For far too long the Chargers have played not to lose. Have played it safe. Even dating to vaunted the Marty era. The Chargers played to not lose. I know, I watched all of it. There was not but one goal, don't lose. Spoiler, they lost. Brandon Staley comes in with only one goal, win. The Chargers may lose the game. But they will leave it all out there. Sometimes that just win mentality costs them. Sometimes they win. But as a fan I can't describe how pleased I am to have a head coach that try anything to win and lose, than one who will do anything possible to not lose, and lose. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeptunePenguins Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Hm happy for Mahomes, but kind of sad for Herbert : ( Also why do they both be so cute. I don't remember finding any qbs cute when I was growing up, but now I do, maybe because they finally be my age :V Also nice to see Kelce have such a huge game today......right when I am going against him in fantasy........ oh well. Might have over done the alcohol, but meh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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