Week 16: Browns @ Packers on Christmas Day - POSTGAME: Packers WIN 24-22! Improve to 12-3!

[Sasquatch]

1 minute ago, Toddfather said:

I just like thinking long term. No insult to anyone on this board. I love this board and the posters. Hell, a lot of times I agree with what many are saying in the moment. However that's just what it is... a moment... To me personally this team has me excited for the first time since 2014. Like as in legit I believe it's going to happen. They have faced adversity. They have won with players we never even thought would see the field, let alone be on our team during the season. They have a positive vibe. I feel ML is really in touch with this team, and I do believe there are legit leaders. People like Big Dog. I just think the pieces we are missing are currently getting healthy and are going to contribute to an amazing run. With all the negatives on the field tonight, we still won the game. We still have the goal in view. That number one seed... Most importantly, when we have needed a play we have created one. This league is tough, and I love seeing this team win multiple ways. I feel good about this squad. Go Pack Go! 

I’d sure love to see us get some guys back.  I think if nothing else, it would at least give an emotional boost to a team that’s fought hard through a lot of adversity this year - since beginning all the way back to this pst spring with the off-season distractions.

As you said, it’s pretty incredible this team is 12-3, all things considered.  A very nice Christmas for sure.

[Sasquatch]

Big Dawg has spoken.  Perspective.

 

[ThatJerkDave]

4 hours ago, LLcheesehead12 said:

Well possibly the refs too being they allowed RD to get away with a couple defensive holds including the one that got him that last interception.

 

On this front, it isn't like the Packers got a bunch of calls the other way either.  The only time that I have a problem with those calls or non-calls is when it is one directional.  Just because Buck and Aikman complained the two times that we got away with it, doesn't mean that the Browns never got away with it either.  I feel that Davante was interfered with a couple of times, and I know that Lazard was when he made the one handed catch.  They were letting the DBs play all game, no need to change it up because the Browns really needed a penalty to bail them out.  Nobody was getting calls.  And the play in question wasn't as if the WR got tackled or really pulled out of position.  

[ThatJerkDave]

Also props to the Browns.  That had to be the best tackling team I have seen in a while.  The only one consistently getting any yards after contact was Dillon.  That usually doesn't happen.  

And Nick Chubb is a freaking tank.  

Hats off to the Browns.  

[Refugee]

3 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

On this front, it isn't like the Packers got a bunch of calls the other way either.  The only time that I have a problem with those calls or non-calls is when it is one directional.  Just because Buck and Aikman complained the two times that we got away with it, doesn't mean that the Browns never got away with it either.  I feel that Davante was interfered with a couple of times, and I know that Lazard was when he made the one handed catch.  They were letting the DBs play all game, no need to change it up because the Browns really needed a penalty to bail them out.  Nobody was getting calls.  And the play in question wasn't as if the WR got tackled or really pulled out of position.  

I feel the same way. More than a few times their DBs were wearing our guys like a shirt, long before the ball arrived. Some were borderline, some pretty excessive but I appreciated them letting it go both ways. All you can really ask for as long as they call the blatant holds. 

 

3 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Big Dawg has spoken.  Perspective.

 

Imagine playing in Jax all those years and then going to a team where the complaints after wins are sometimes louder than the celebration.  Glad he’s one of the leaders on this team. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

 

[mikemike778]

9 hours ago, coachbuns said:

LOL .. I love the win, no dispute.  It's just one thing after another to clean up ... special teams one week, run defense another, covid crap another, questionable play calling, injuries again ... rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.  It's TIME for this team to get cleaned up and roll.  Once again, love the win regardless of the clean up.

I think people have crazy expectations.

No team is good at everything. Not in week 1 and definitely not in week 15 when you are using your depth and the most of the 'healthy' players are probably dealing with something.

We are 12-3 which means we are extremely good at most things. We have some of our best players injured, we have an entire second string OL playing and were running out of receivers as well as everything. 

ST is annoying because it is basic fundamentals that reeks of bad coaching.

Outside of that people need to live in the real world. If you think everything is going to be cleaned up you are going to be waiting a long time. Every team is going to leave pretty much every game thinking there is stuff to sort out.  Good old play calling questioning again - pretty sure MLF would get every play call 100% if he could watch it on TV see how his original call would go and how the defence played it and press rewind and do it again. Maybe time travel is the answer how hasn't MLF figured that out.

Edited December 26, 2021 by mikemike778

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, mikemike778 said:

Maybe time travel is the answer how hasn't MLF figured that out.

I'm sure in 1985, you can just go to any corner gas station and get some plutonium, but in 1955 the only thing that can generate that much power is a bolt of lightning, and nobody knows when that will strike.

[BAM]

Packers' fans are undefeated in THE HINDSIGHT BOWL 😉 Dr Pepper anyone?

[Leader]

Zach Kruse -    Football is a funny, weird, unpredictable game.

Packers had a..........

+59.8 passer rating advantage (115.1-55.3)
+4 turnover advantage (4-0)
+5 sack advantage (5-0)

.........and still only won by 2 points.

[craig]

The above is indeed remarkable.  Of the three factors Kruse mentions, it's essentially two factors, since both turnovers and passer rating source from the interceptions.  

[craig]

I'd be curious to see statistics on punt differentials and W/L.  There are lots of stats about the importance of having a turnover advantage.  But I wonder how well punt factor correlates winning?  

Packers/Browns were 3/1 for punts.  Comparing turnovers and punts 

• Both change possession
• Field position is hugely different.
• Punts are more situationally dependent and are voluntary.

I'm guessing there is a much lesser correlation between W/L on punts than turnovers. 

• Many 4th quarter situations, a winning team will punt on the same down-distance that a losing team will go for it. 
• Many 4th quarter situations, a winning team plays very conservative run-run-punt as the Packers have done almost every winning week.  Hard to stack 1st downs when defenses anticipate run.The MLF approach routinely means that the winning team will rack up an extra punt or two in the 4th quarter, that they wouldn't accrue if they were approaching the game with a 2nd-quarter mindset.  To some degree, some punting is a manifestation of winning, not a cause thereof.  
• INT's also increase when a team is losing and desperate.  You take risks when you need to come back that you don't take when you're winning.  So to some degree, interceptions is a manifestation of losing, without necessarily being a cause thereof.  

[beekay414]

I'm kinda done trying to look at everything through a microscope. It's the NFL, a win is a win. There's a reason why we're going to be the first team in NFL history to have 3 straight 13 win seasons. It's incredibly difficult to win in this league. Narrow wins are what the playoffs are made of so just gotta hope they are learning to win tight. Defense has been coming up with timely stops when needed and the offense has done their thing when needed. 

Just win, baby.

I get annoyed during the game, for sure, since it's usually the same story that unfolds, but I'm trying to have some perspective with time to dwell on another close, nail-biting, Cardiac Pack win.

[Sasquatch]

29 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I'm kinda done trying to look at everything through a microscope. It's the NFL, a win is a win. There's a reason why we're going to be the first team in NFL history to have 3 straight 13 win seasons. It's incredibly difficult to win in this league. Narrow wins are what the playoffs are made of so just gotta hope they are learning to win tight. Defense has been coming up with timely stops when needed and the offense has done their thing when needed. 

Just win, baby.

I get annoyed during the game, for sure, since it's usually the same story that unfolds, but I'm trying to have some perspective with time to dwell on another close, nail-biting, Cardiac Pack win.

Well said.  Most of us get annoyed during the game, and many of us share our frustration during the game in the GDT.  How many YouTube videos are out there of fans recording their emotions as a game unfolds?  Probably thousands.  The GDT is the written version of these videos.  It’s human nature to be expressive and emotional - if not irrational - and as old as the game itself.

Perspective comes after our blood pressure comes down and we can review the events that unfolded in those three hours.  I never begrudge anyone for getting hyped up, worked up, overly optimistic, or outright belligerent during the game.  Those three hours are as real as it gets in life, and collectively, most of the problems in our world or in our lives melt away and we become one fanatical, dysfunctional family.

Edited December 26, 2021 by Sasquatch

[AlexGreen#20]

31 minutes ago, craig said:

I'd be curious to see statistics on punt differentials and W/L.  There are lots of stats about the importance of having a turnover advantage.  But I wonder how well punt factor correlates winning?  

Packers/Browns were 3/1 for punts.  Comparing turnovers and punts 

• Both change possession
• Field position is hugely different.
• Punts are more situationally dependent and are voluntary.

I'm guessing there is a much lesser correlation between W/L on punts than turnovers. 

• Many 4th quarter situations, a winning team will punt on the same down-distance that a losing team will go for it. 
• Many 4th quarter situations, a winning team plays very conservative run-run-punt as the Packers have done almost every winning week.  Hard to stack 1st downs when defenses anticipate run.The MLF approach routinely means that the winning team will rack up an extra punt or two in the 4th quarter, that they wouldn't accrue if they were approaching the game with a 2nd-quarter mindset.  To some degree, some punting is a manifestation of winning, not a cause thereof.  
• INT's also increase when a team is losing and desperate.  You take risks when you need to come back that you don't take when you're winning.  So to some degree, interceptions is a manifestation of losing, without necessarily being a cause thereof.  

It's pretty easily chartable if you're curious. It's just a correlation of field position. If the average net punt is 45 yards and the average net int is 10 yards, you just need to convert yards to expected points and then expected points to win percentage. Just shooting from the hip my guess is that it's probably about a 2 point differential between INT and punt (this is absolutely huge).