Week 18 GDT - Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

[J-ALL-DAY]

We shouldn't be in this situation where we pretty much need to win to get in but here we are! After so many blown games and disappointing performances, we are in a win and get in type of game. I expect the Saints to handle business against the Falcons, especially with Pitts likely not playing with a hammy injury. It won't be easy as the Rams are riding a five game win streak and have a lot to play for as they can get the #2 seed with a win.

I'll just put it out there off the bat but I expect Lance to be the QB this week as I just can't see Jimmy getting healthy enough to play. Lance played well enough where he gave Shanny confidence that he doesn't need to trot out an injured Jimmy who is not close to 100%. And Jimmy is honestly one of the worst QBs trying to fight through injuries. Anytime he tries to do this, it does not end well at all. The Rams defense is back to playing top 5 ball so it won't be easy, regardless of the QB is. However, our run game can control the game as the Ravens run offense did last week. We just have a lot of weapons where it makes it hard for this offense to truly be shut down. One reason why the Jimmy led offenses do well against this defense is because the Rams defense is built to take away the deep ball and Jimmy just attacks the middle of the field where there are a lot of openings. Guess what? Lance is the complete opposite and apparently only likes to target the sidelines on deep balls lol. Stylistically, the Rams defense is as brutal of a match up for Lance as we will see. So it's going to be crucial for Shanny to protect him as much as he could with the run game and get the ball to the playmakers as much as possible.

Defensively, it is going to depend on who we have at CB. Moseley will be back at practice on Wednesday and he will be badly needed this week. I'm sorry, but you just can't trot out Thomas/Norman or even Johnson and expect to slow this pass offense down. Stafford has been in a giving mood as of late, but he's going to destroy the corners if Moseley does not play. I mean first thing first, we will need Ward and the crew to clear the health and safety protocols. Getting Moseley back is great, but without Ward this will be a LONG day. While the Rams have won five straight, they haven't scored more than 23 points on offense the last four games. They have been mainly stuck in the 20 range. If we can hold them to that, then we will have a shot to pull this off. The run defense has been MUCH better than I ever expected it to be and the Rams may be getting Akers back this week so if they can continue to play good ball and force the Rams to be one dimensional, that would be huge. Speaking of Ward, I would like him to be the primary corner on Kupp when he is in the slot. This will be a game where we need to play three safeties so hopefully Hufanga will be back on the field. I know that Wilson will be activated, but I definitely prefer Hufanga over him. There is a chance Greenlaw will return as well and with Azeez being out, that would be great. While Harris had the INT and made some plays in the run game, he is still mainly a liability.

And guess where the Rams rank? #6! This would be the difference in the game. It's crazy how bad the STs unit has been all season long. Cost us a few games and it would be poetic justice if they are the reason we miss the playoffs with another bad game against the Rams.

Anyways, call me crazy on this, but I think we pull this game out at the end with a last minute drive led by Lance.

SF 23

LAR 20

[NinerNation21]

22 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

We shouldn't be in this situation where we pretty much need to win to get in but here we are! After so many blown games and disappointing performances, we are in a win and get in type of game. I expect the Saints to handle business against the Falcons, especially with Pitts likely not playing with a hammy injury. It won't be easy as the Rams are riding a five game win streak and have a lot to play for as they can get the #2 seed with a win.

I'll just put it out there off the bat but I expect Lance to be the QB this week as I just can't see Jimmy getting healthy enough to play. Lance played well enough where he gave Shanny confidence that he doesn't need to trot out an injured Jimmy who is not close to 100%. And Jimmy is honestly one of the worst QBs trying to fight through injuries. Anytime he tries to do this, it does not end well at all. The Rams defense is back to playing top 5 ball so it won't be easy, regardless of the QB is. However, our run game can control the game as the Ravens run offense did last week. We just have a lot of weapons where it makes it hard for this offense to truly be shut down. One reason why the Jimmy led offenses do well against this defense is because the Rams defense is built to take away the deep ball and Jimmy just attacks the middle of the field where there are a lot of openings. Guess what? Lance is the complete opposite and apparently only likes to target the sidelines on deep balls lol. Stylistically, the Rams defense is as brutal of a match up for Lance as we will see. So it's going to be crucial for Shanny to protect him as much as he could with the run game and get the ball to the playmakers as much as possible.

Defensively, it is going to depend on who we have at CB. Moseley will be back at practice on Wednesday and he will be badly needed this week. I'm sorry, but you just can't trot out Thomas/Norman or even Johnson and expect to slow this pass offense down. Stafford has been in a giving mood as of late, but he's going to destroy the corners if Moseley does not play. I mean first thing first, we will need Ward and the crew to clear the health and safety protocols. Getting Moseley back is great, but without Ward this will be a LONG day. While the Rams have won five straight, they haven't scored more than 23 points on offense the last four games. They have been mainly stuck in the 20 range. If we can hold them to that, then we will have a shot to pull this off. The run defense has been MUCH better than I ever expected it to be and the Rams may be getting Akers back this week so if they can continue to play good ball and force the Rams to be one dimensional, that would be huge. Speaking of Ward, I would like him to be the primary corner on Kupp when he is in the slot. This will be a game where we need to play three safeties so hopefully Hufanga will be back on the field. I know that Wilson will be activated, but I definitely prefer Hufanga over him. There is a chance Greenlaw will return as well and with Azeez being out, that would be great. While Harris had the INT and made some plays in the run game, he is still mainly a liability.

And guess where the Rams rank? #6! This would be the difference in the game. It's crazy how bad the STs unit has been all season long. Cost us a few games and it would be poetic justice if they are the reason we miss the playoffs with another bad game against the Rams.

Anyways, call me crazy on this, but I think we pull this game out at the end with a last minute drive led by Lance.

SF 23

LAR 20

To paint an even clearer picture of the Rams in their current form, despite their winning streak:

Passing DVOA weeks 1-9 for the Rams: #3 / weeks 10-17: #20

Total Offense DVOA weeks 1-9 for the Rams: #2 / weeks 10-17: #16

Passing Defense DVOA weeks 1-9 for the Rams: #8 / weeks 10-17: #13

Offense EPA over the last 3 weeks - Passing: -0.019 (19th) / Rushing: +0.022 (11th)

Stafford has 15 INTs and 23 Turnover worthy throws on the year, 6 INTs and 8 TWT have come in the last 3 weeks. In terms of EPA, Stafford is 18th in the NFL over the last 3 weeks while Jimmy is 4th. Side note, if you expand this out to include Lance, he's 6th in the NFL. If there is an area to capitalize on here, it's putting Stafford in situations to turn the ball over. 

On the flip side of this, the 49ers have been a top 5 team in the NFL since week 10, while the Rams have been a middling team since week 10. With that said, I'm finding it hard to objectively say we're going to win this game, but my heart says were going to win, so I'm going with my heart.

 

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

13 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

To paint an even clearer picture of the Rams in their current form, despite their winning streak:

Passing DVOA weeks 1-9 for the Rams: #3 / weeks 10-17: #20

Total Offense DVOA weeks 1-9 for the Rams: #2 / weeks 10-17: #16

Passing Defense DVOA weeks 1-9 for the Rams: #8 / weeks 10-17: #13

Offense EPA over the last 3 weeks - Passing: -0.019 (19th) / Rushing: +0.022 (11th)

Stafford has 15 INTs and 23 Turnover worthy throws on the year, 6 INTs and 8 TWT have come in the last 3 weeks. In terms of EPA, Stafford is 18th in the NFL over the last 3 weeks while Jimmy is 4th. Side note, if you expand this out to include Lance, he's 6th in the NFL. If there is an area to capitalize on here, it's putting Stafford in situations to turn the ball over. 

On the flip side of this, the 49ers have been a top 5 team in the NFL since week 10, while the Rams have been a middling team since week 10. With that said, I'm finding it hard to objectively say we're going to win this game, but my heart says were going to win, so I'm going with my heart.

We pass the talent and eye test but there is a reason we lost to the Seahawks twice, Cardinals with Colt McCoy at QB and the Titans are outgaining them by over a 100 yards. This team just doesn't do the little things well so you could never have full confidence in them. The offense will march the ball down the field at will and then have a costly turnover or penalty that kills the drive. The defense will commit a million DPIs and not come up with the fumble they force or drop a INT. There's a lot of good signs going forward, but this season has been mediocre for a reason. 

I think we can pull it off because the Rams offense is not playing great ball at the moment and Stafford has been turning it over far too much. It won't be easy and likely will be a dog fight just like the second meeting last season when we had Mullens at QB. 

[NinerNation21]

2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

We pass the talent and eye test but there is a reason we lost to the Seahawks twice, Cardinals with Colt McCoy at QB and the Titans are outgaining them by over a 100 yards. This team just doesn't do the little things well so you could never have full confidence in them. The offense will march the ball down the field at will and then have a costly turnover or penalty that kills the drive. The defense will commit a million DPIs and not come up with the fumble they force or drop a INT. There's a lot of good signs going forward, but this season has been mediocre for a reason. 

I think we can pull it off because the Rams offense is not playing great ball at the moment and Stafford has been turning it over far too much. It won't be easy and likely will be a dog fight just like the second meeting last season when we had Mullens at QB. 

Oh, for sure. This is one of the best/sloppiest teams I've ever seen. We don't just shoot ourselves in the foot, we blow the whole darn thing off. 

We had at least 4 games (you can make an argument for 6) that we should've won. We should be sitting at the #1 seed with 12-13 wins right now. But, because of special teams mistakes, clock management, and stupid throws from Jimmy, we're sitting here wondering if we'll even make it into the playoffs.  

[Forge]

Kyle Pitts was banged up in last week's game against Buffalo. I'm not sure if he will play against the Saints. Kind of a big deal with regards to that game. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

7 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

Oh, for sure. This is one of the best/sloppiest teams I've ever seen. We don't just shoot ourselves in the foot, we blow the whole darn thing off. 

We had at least 4 games (you can make an argument for 6) that we should've won. We should be sitting at the #1 seed with 12-13 wins right now. But, because of special teams mistakes, clock management, and stupid throws from Jimmy, we're sitting here wondering if we'll even make it into the playoffs.  

This can be said about a lot of teams, but if we just play a clean game, we can compete with anyone. I don't think talent wise the Packers are better, but they are the #1 seed in back to back years because Rodgers and the offense just don't turn the ball over. It gives them chances to win games against superiorly talented teams. Like the Packers are not rated high on DVOA and other metrics and they barely scrape away with wins, but that's a skill itself. At some point it can't be a coincidence and the same thing could have been said about the Seahawks in the years past.

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

Kyle Pitts was banged up in last week's game against Buffalo. I'm not sure if he will play against the Saints. Kind of a big deal with regards to that game. 

Yep, hammy injury and I just can't see him playing. For what? Playoffs are out of sight and out of mind at this point and there is no reason to risk further injury. This is why to make the playoffs, we need to win this game.

Freaking Jimmy G with some disastrous mistakes vs the Titans!! Beat them, and there is no stress at all heading into this game and we would have locked up the #6 seed. SMH! 

[J-ALL-DAY]

I actually called Ryans being the DC before most last season and we will almost certainly lose him within two years....SOOO, who will be the next DC?? If Saleh is let go by the Jets (hope not), he's obviously a no brainer choice. But let's say he sticks around for three or four more seasons at the very least, then anyone catch your eye? Shanny loves in-house promotions and good organizations do just that. I don't have a feel for who would be a good candidate since Koceruk is a DL coach lifer it seems and can't take another position as it won't end well....Kind of like Tomsula. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

I'll stop being a homer (this week) and say our season ends this week.

I hope I am wrong but I see 34-17, Rams. I know we are 5-0 vs the Rams as of late but I just don't feel good about it.

I know the Falcons beat the saints again and they know they can ruin the saint's season by winning but I just think the Saints do enough to win and clinch the 7th spot.

But hey atleast Kyle will have his second winning season.

Side note, if this was still a 16 game season, would the eagles be the 6th seed still?

 

[NcFinest9erFan]

55 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

This can be said about a lot of teams, but if we just play a clean game, we can compete with anyone. I don't think talent wise the Packers are better, but they are the #1 seed in back to back years because Rodgers and the offense just don't turn the ball over. It gives them chances to win games against superiorly talented teams. Like the Packers are not rated high on DVOA and other metrics and they barely scrape away with wins, but that's a skill itself. At some point it can't be a coincidence and the same thing could have been said about the Seahawks in the years past.

Yep, hammy injury and I just can't see him playing. For what? Playoffs are out of sight and out of mind at this point and there is no reason to risk further injury. This is why to make the playoffs, we need to win this game.

Freaking Jimmy G with some disastrous mistakes vs the Titans!! Beat them, and there is no stress at all heading into this game and we would have locked up the #6 seed. SMH! 

There's those frustrating  losses like the packers, colts, Seachickens and Cards then there's this game. We were in control for a good bit then those two INTs hit, all those 3rd and forever conversion by Ten and we lose. I slammed my phone on the couch many times that night. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

45 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I actually called Ryans being the DC before most last season and we will almost certainly lose him within two years....SOOO, who will be the next DC?? If Saleh is let go by the Jets (hope not), he's obviously a no brainer choice. But let's say he sticks around for three or four more seasons at the very least, then anyone catch your eye? Shanny loves in-house promotions and good organizations do just that. I don't have a feel for who would be a good candidate since Koceruk is a DL coach lifer it seems and can't take another position as it won't end well....Kind of like Tomsula. 

I'm glad Ryans has gotten better as the year has gone. After the GB game, I was ready to can him for Vic Fanigo if he was free this off season. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

 

[Chrissooner49er]

2 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

 

The one thing I like about Aikman post-retirement: He is not afraid to call out poor officiating when he sees it. Too many announcers steer away from it. Tell it like it is instead of sugar coat what everyone sees. 

[Riftty]

It just had to be you guys to finish out the season… the division title and 2nd seed on the line for us, and your season on the line for you. This is a playoff game for both teams and I expect it to look like one.

You guys have our number, for whatever reason we just can’t get it done against you guys. That being said I hope for a good game and no injuries, but I wanna see your season end so bad lol.

let’s say Rams get the monkey off their back, 23-20 Rams on a last drive field goal.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

49ers will have to have their best rushing performance of the season, coverage game of the season, pass rush game of the season, and turnover + penalty luck on their side. Maybe Trey can provide a few big plays, but it's going to be a really tough task for the rook. I think practically our best chance is for the Falcons to beat the Saints at home. However I hate the LA Rams, so I'll be holding a candlelight vigil all week for a miraculous win. Final score 49ers 24 Rams 21. Go Squad. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by TecmoSuperJoe

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 hour ago, Riftty said:

It just had to be you guys to finish out the season… the division title and 2nd seed on the line for us, and your season on the line for you. This is a playoff game for both teams and I expect it to look like one.

You guys have our number, for whatever reason we just can’t get it done against you guys. That being said I hope for a good game and no injuries, but I wanna see your season end so bad lol.

let’s say Rams get the monkey off their back, 23-20 Rams on a last drive field goal.

It's likely going to be close but if Moseley does not play, there is a chance this can get away from the Niners, especially if Lance starts.