dll2000 Posted April 1, 2022 Author Share Posted April 1, 2022 (edited) On 3/31/2022 at 9:52 PM, Sugashane said: Should I go kick John Wick's dog while I'm at it? 😂 Yeah I'm deleting this on further reflection. Edited April 12, 2022 by dll2000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted April 1, 2022 Author Share Posted April 1, 2022 Moves I question of young Poles thus far: The lack of move at WR forces you into a need position in draft which I would never like. It does look like there is a stud or 2 to be had in 2nd round at WR. However, it ruins draft advantages by making you predictable. If teams can figure you are going for a position of great need they will trade ahead of you and take your guy or not offer a trade to you they may otherwise have because they can predict your pick. Hiring a defensive coach. That in all likelihood will come with a revolving door or OCs. If OC does good he is getting HC gig soon. He does bad you don't want him. Bad look signing a first wave FA and then reneging on deal due to physical. You don't see that a lot. Then while doing that you miss out on other moves. Signing ESB and Pringle when their teams obviously wanted little to do with them. Though I like their athletic profiles. But you signed them to 1 year deals. If your gamble works and they amount to anything you may lose them anyway or have to pay them. I like Morrow's upside, but again if it pays off he is just on a 1 year deal. You are going to have fill much of roster again next year. Some continuity is important in football. The lack of closing of deals is not a good look. We tried for Allen and failed. We tried for Bates and failed. I already mentioned we lost our top FA signing. So basically of our top 4 moves we are 1 for 3. Rams and Bills are filled with highly paid stars and we can't outbid them when we have a rookie QB and are dumping vet salaries? It has been near 30 years of bad GMs and I am just not in mood to give the usual you can do no wrong honeymoon of first 2 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 2 hours ago, dll2000 said: My wife has been wearing these high wasted pants lately and they ... don't look good. I want to make some Mom jeans comments and thought better of it. It takes a particular figure to make those look good. My wife has been sick so she's been wearing my cutoff shirts the last two days. I'm enjoying the profile view. 🥵 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 Israel Idonije came to my work yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 My son just got in a fight with a friend, and split the kids lip pretty good. His dad is a classmate of mine and messaged me on Facebook saying "Seems like getting punched by your family is a tradition. See you guys tomorrow. LOL" Me and him fought and his dad and my dad fought before. I think my brother is the only one who hasn't had a fight with their family but because they didnt have any kids his age. And we all have been close friends with the ones our age Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskieBear Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 18 hours ago, Ty21 said: Israel Idonije came to my work yesterday I met Caleb Johnson at the Houston airport yesterday - he was flying back to Chicago for the off-season program that starts today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Advantages of being a contractor - some days you have to wait since there are material delays, so you get a nice easy morning. Disadvantage- your sick wife doesn't know you're still home so you accidentally scare the hell out of her when you nearly walk into each other, and she palm strikes you in the ****ing face. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 On 3/31/2022 at 9:04 PM, AZBearsFan said: PLEASE take video of you telling your wife you called her wide on the internet so we can see her reaction. PLEEEEEEEEEASE. 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏 She found out, so she messed with the supply chain just so he'd be home today, so that she in turn could wallop his nose. It's all connected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 hour ago, RunningVaccs said: She found out, so she messed with the supply chain just so he'd be home today, so that she in turn could wallop his nose. It's all connected. I've already compiled over 20 different pictures of my eye for later guilt. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 We talk so much about the low expectations given the apparent books-clearing “rebuild year”. We almost never look at the other end of the spectrum: What if Fields makes a big jump in 2022? Most here probably believe Fields is capable of a big jump. He clearly has elite physical tools and the right work ethic, and his intangibles seem to be very strong. What if a jump happens now, despite the rebuild year? I’m not talking a Burrow-like year 2, but what if he’s, say, 4100/28/12 next year with rushing value? That’s all roughly in the 10-15 range statistically as a passer. Derek Carr-ish. I guess what I’m asking is, if Fields shows himself to be a fully legit, above average starter in 2022, what do you see as the 2022 ceiling for this team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: We talk so much about the low expectations given the apparent books-clearing “rebuild year”. We almost never look at the other end of the spectrum: What if Fields makes a big jump in 2022? Most here probably believe Fields is capable of a big jump. He clearly has elite physical tools and the right work ethic, and his intangibles seem to be very strong. What if a jump happens now, despite the rebuild year? I’m not talking a Burrow-like year 2, but what if he’s, say, 4100/28/12 next year with rushing value? That’s all roughly in the 10-15 range statistically as a passer. Derek Carr-ish. I guess what I’m asking is, if Fields shows himself to be a fully legit, above average starter in 2022, what do you see as the 2022 ceiling for this team? Hard to say with so little being known about what the final roster will be. But with the current gaps in the defense I think we are probably in the bottom 8-12 range on defense in ppg if they are coached well. With a few pieces added and a few stepping up like Graham, Gipson, and a LB to pair with Smith then maybe we can sneak into s to 15 ranking on defense. If they do, and Fields produces like you're saying, then we could sneak in as a bottom playoff team. Perfect to get mopped in the first round or hoping Fields and Co explodes like Foles and Philly again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbear72 Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Sugashane said: Hard to say with so little being known about what the final roster will be. But with the current gaps in the defense I think we are probably in the bottom 8-12 range on defense in ppg if they are coached well. With a few pieces added and a few stepping up like Graham, Gipson, and a LB to pair with Smith then maybe we can sneak into s to 15 ranking on defense. If they do, and Fields produces like you're saying, then we could sneak in as a bottom playoff team. Perfect to get mopped in the first round or hoping Fields and Co explodes like Foles and Philly again. I think that in order for that to happen as the roster currently is constructed (I hope it will get better but at the moment I can't count on that being the case), there would have to be very few injuries and EVERYONE would have to absolutely play out of their minds. I just don't think think that will be the case. I think we will have a top 10 pick in the draft next year and I believe that Poles thinks so too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 46 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said: I think that in order for that to happen as the roster currently is constructed (I hope it will get better but at the moment I can't count on that being the case), there would have to be very few injuries and EVERYONE would have to absolutely play out of their minds. I just don't think think that will be the case. I think we will have a top 10 pick in the draft next year and I believe that Poles thinks so too. I agree. This roster is pretty bad. New coaching staff. There is a lot that would have to break right for them to win more than 6-7 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Bigbear72 said: I think that in order for that to happen as the roster currently is constructed (I hope it will get better but at the moment I can't count on that being the case), there would have to be very few injuries and EVERYONE would have to absolutely play out of their minds. I just don't think think that will be the case. I think we will have a top 10 pick in the draft next year and I believe that Poles thinks so too. I don’t think that to get to the level I set would need to have everyone “playing out of their minds.” It would require injury luck, for Fields and Mooney especially. For sure. But 4,100 yards from Fields is only 241/game over 17 games. Far from outrageous. Assume 7.2 yards per attempt (16th in the league in 2021) and you get to 4,100 yards from 569 attempts. Those pieces we have already on hand (Mooney, Pringle, Kmet, Montgomery, Herbert, Griffin, St. Brown, Newsome & Horsted) combined for 2,937 yards last year on 427 total targets. If you get the exact same from them in 2022 collectively, nothing more or less, then you need to get 1,163 yards from the remaining 142 targets to get to 4,100 yards. Expecting an exact replication is flawed though, because of the amount of variables involved in circumstance, role, etc. If Fields is making a big step as is the hypothetical I proposed though, efficiency should improve even if the players themselves don’t. So let’s look at 2021 player receiving efficiency (yards per target) among the expected known primary targets: -Mooney 7.53 -Pringle 9.47 -Kmet 6.58 -Montgomery 5.90 -Griffin 6.21 Assume some but not huge growth from Mooney and Kmet (leaving Nagy’s offense, Fields improving, scheme adjustment to have far less short stop routes) and some regression from Pringle (shift from WR3 to WR2 and away from Mahomes) and say it’s this in 2022: -Mooney 8.00 -Pringle 7.75 -Kmet 7.00 -Montgomery 6.00 -Griffin 6.21 Figure Mooney at 140 targets, Pringle and Kmet each at 100, Monty 70 and Griffin 30 and you get: -Mooney 1120 -Pringle 775 -Kmet 700 -Montgomery 420 -Griffin 186 That’s 3,201 yards across 440 total targets, leaving 899 yards to come from 129 targets spread across RB2-3 and WR3-5 to get Fields to 4,100. We got 781 yards from Goodwin/Byrd/Grant last year on 93 targets and nobody would classify any of them as anything above replacement level, so getting that from a rookie WR3, a mystery vet/rookie at WR4 one reasonably assumes we will add between now and August plus Herbert isn’t at all far fetched. The assumption here is health, and it’s a big one no doubt, but that would be the case no matter who our top targets were. Now, what does that mean for overall team success? Who knows. Edited April 13, 2022 by AZBearsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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