2022 Player movement rumors (Free agency / Trades)

[N4L]

3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

But I thought the 49ers had an offer in hand of 2 SRPs?

I think that was from Washington. 

At the time, Garoppolo did not want to go there, and the niners told him before last season that they would only trade him somewhere he wanted to go. 

Pretty silly thing to promise a player, but what is done is done

[N4L]

[Uncle Buck]

28 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

• Green Bay literally never goes Offense in the 1st round (in order to help Aaron Rodgers).

The only time GB ever drafts Offensive Prospects (1st round) is for backup QBs like Jordan Love. 

Outside of Jordan Love (throughout Aaron Rodgers entire career in Green Bay) dating back to 2005 (of 17 years ago) the Green Bay Packers have only drafted two (2) 1st Round Offensive Players in Bryan Bulaga (OT, 2010) and an absolute bust in Derek Sherrod (OT, 2011) and haven't sniffed 1st round Offense ever since (11 years ago).

The Packers 100% won't be drafting WR round 1 (no matter how bad their fan base wants one) because that's not how Green Bay's Front Office operates. 

GB will either go LB/DT/DE/Safety/CB during the 1st round (just like they always do) and pass on 1st Round WRs (2x).

 • 2019 = two 1st round picks (and they drafted LB/S). 

• 2009 = two 1st round picks (and they drafted DT/LB).

And (imo) nothing will change come 2022's NFL draft; Green Bay will continue to avoid 1st round Offensive talent like the black plague. 

But that's not necessarily a bad thing because A.) GB fans have reminded me how Aaron Rodgers is 7-0 without Davante Adams since Davante Adams became a starter (obviously doesn't need him) and B.) This draft class is fully loaded on Defense (1st round).

It will be interesting to see what they do.  There is a laundry list of Pro Bowl receivers that the Packers drafted in the 2nd round or later and developed.  The only thing that could change the equation is that they just signed Aaron Rodgers to that mega contract and he is probably only going to be playing for 2-3 more years.  For that reason, it might make sense to draft a receiver in the first round because he might not take as long to get up to speed.

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

27 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

It will be interesting to see what they do.  There is a laundry list of Pro Bowl receivers that the Packers drafted in the 2nd round or later and developed.  The only thing that could change the equation is that they just signed Aaron Rodgers to that mega contract and he is probably only going to be playing for 2-3 more years.  For that reason, it might make sense to draft a receiver in the first round because he might not take as long to get up to speed.

Receivers often times take 2-3 years to develop once getting drafted. 

I don't think Aaron Rodgers has 2-3 years of waiting around for younger WRs to develop (not even Davante Adams broke out under Aaron Rodgers until year #3) because he's turning 39 years old before the Playoffs next year. 

I think GB will use both 1st round picks on Defense.

And by the time they pick in the 2nd round (21st pick of the 2nd round) WRs such as Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson and even George Pickens will all be long gone (all are being mocked before GB picks in the 2nd round). 

They'll have to settle for a Sky Moore/David Bell type of WR prospect/project.

Edited March 24, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[Uncle Buck]

1 minute ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

Receivers often times take 2-3 years to develop once getting drafted. 

I don't think Aaron Rodgers has 2-3 years of waiting around for younger WRs to develop (not even Davante Adams broke out under Aaron Rodgers until year #3) because he's turning 39 years old before the Playoffs next year. 

I think GB will use both 1st round picks on Defense.

And by the time they pick in the 2nd round (21st pick of the 2nd round) WRs such as Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson and even George Pickens will all be long gone (all are being mocked before GB picks in the 2nd round). 

They'll have to settle for a Sky Moore/David Bell type of WR prospect/project.

This is what worries me about the Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill trades.  It puts two teams who wouldn't have needed a first round WR in a position where they may need to draft one.  That makes it tough for the Jaguars and Jets who are sitting at the top of the 2nd round hoping one will fall to us.

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

5 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

This is what worries me about the Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill trades.  It puts two teams who wouldn't have needed a first round WR in a position where they may need to draft one.  That makes it tough for the Jaguars and Jets who are sitting at the top of the 2nd round hoping one will fall to us.

Na. It'll help the Jets tremendously if either one of GB/KC goes 1st round WR.

Jets aren't leaving round 1 without either Drake London or Garrett Wilson @ 10th overall.

Which means that if teams like GB/KC goes WR 1st round? That'll be two more elite Defensive Prospects available for us @ 35th/38th overall of the 2nd round.

After the Jets go Edge (4th overall) and WR (10th overall) I'll be hoping for as many WR's/QBs/Edge to be drafted as possible during the 1st round (that'll open up our 2nd round tremendously @ 35th/38th).

Edited March 24, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[Nick_gb]

3 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

Hey Nick, do you think the Packers will use one of those first rounders on a receiver this year or do you see them going their more traditional route where they get someone in the second round to develop?  I'm just wondering, because it looks like there could be some good options either way.

I think it all depends on who’s there for them at 22 - With Davante Adams in LV now, I think anything is on the table for Green Bay at this point. Including taking a WR in the 1st if the board falls right. 

[RedGold]

39 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

Receivers often times take 2-3 years to develop once getting drafted. 

Do they though?     I think this is something that was more true 5+ years ago than is today.

[Matts4313]

2 minutes ago, RedGold said:

Do they though?     I think this is something that was more true 5+ years ago than is today.

It does feel like the development time has been shortening. You are starting to see the Lambs, Jeffersons, Chase, etc all having impacts from season 1. 

Many of them take no longer than mid season 2. 

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

But the Browns did so much research 😅

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

This is a question for cap experts here.

It's been said (by myself included) that the Browns only paying Deshaun Watson $1M in his first year is unusual and just so that if he gets suspended he has to pay less.

I saw a post on Reddit where someone said that this is actually the norm, and gave examples of guys like Mahomes, Hill, Stafford, etc. where they had $1-$1.5M salaries their first year.

Is it true that this is pretty much in line with how things are historically, or is because the contract is fully guaranteed makes it unique and different?

[Broncofan]

30 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

This is a question for cap experts here.

It's been said (by myself included) that the Browns only paying Deshaun Watson $1M in his first year is unusual and just so that if he gets suspended he has to pay less.

I saw a post on Reddit where someone said that this is actually the norm, and gave examples of guys like Mahomes, Hill, Stafford, etc. where they had $1-$1.5M salaries their first year.

Is it true that this is pretty much in line with how things are historically, or is because the contract is fully guaranteed makes it unique and different?

To get cap relief you minimize salary.  Signing bonus money is paid out evenly over the life of the contract.     Salary counts to present year.   Player gets all that $ up front too.  As opposed to 17 weekly payments for the salary.   Why no player ever refuses that type of deal.   So in extreme cases when teams need every $ that year it happens.   
 

In Watson’s case though it’s also very much to minimize the penalty financially.   NE did the same with TB12 and restructured his salary from 12M+ to 1M the year of Deflategate.   So they let him save millions off that 4-gane suspension by reducing the financial impact to 250k as only salary is affected.   Bonus money isn’t affected by suspension directly.   The NFL allowing that move with NE/TB12 is why it wasn’t even a question with CLE doing it with Watson.  
 

The structure is normal if teams want to save cap space year 1.   But it’s very much a big relief to Watson too both to reduce the financial hit of any suspension and to also get him more $ up front.   

Edited March 24, 2022 by Broncofan

[Matts4313]

27 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

This is a question for cap experts here.

It's been said (by myself included) that the Browns only paying Deshaun Watson $1M in his first year is unusual and just so that if he gets suspended he has to pay less.

I saw a post on Reddit where someone said that this is actually the norm, and gave examples of guys like Mahomes, Hill, Stafford, etc. where they had $1-$1.5M salaries their first year.

Is it true that this is pretty much in line with how things are historically, or is because the contract is fully guaranteed makes it unique and different?

Sure, plenty of QBs have had $1m salaries year one. Mahomes is an interesting one, because people still dont realize he has been on a second contract since 2020, 2 seasons now. His contract was just structured such as that both his year 1 and year 2 adjustments were tiny. 

I think the big difference is that most contracts arent that small year 1. Its definitely not the status quo to have that big of a discrepancy. 

 

One other note, its more common in extensions to save cap space in a given year. Same idea as a restructure, reduce the salary as much as possible to gain space for that year.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Matts4313

[Forge]

33 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

This is a question for cap experts here.

It's been said (by myself included) that the Browns only paying Deshaun Watson $1M in his first year is unusual and just so that if he gets suspended he has to pay less.

I saw a post on Reddit where someone said that this is actually the norm, and gave examples of guys like Mahomes, Hill, Stafford, etc. where they had $1-$1.5M salaries their first year.

Is it true that this is pretty much in line with how things are historically, or is because the contract is fully guaranteed makes it unique and different?

Yeah, it's pretty normal. Teams backload contracts with the expectation that the cap will continue to increase. So you have the flat signing bonus split and the reason cap hits go up as a contract progresses is because the base salary usually increases or there may be roster bonuses. 

TJ Watt's salary last year was 1M, this year it's 24M . Josh Allen's base was less than 1M last year, will increase to 4M  this year, and then will jump to 27 next year and higher after that with year by year roster bonuses. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

Yeah, it's pretty normal. Teams backload contracts with the expectation that the cap will continue to increase. So you have the flat signing bonus split and the reason cap hits go up as a contract progresses is because the base salary usually increases or there may be roster bonuses. 

TJ Watt's salary last year was 1M, this year it's 24M . Josh Allen's base was less than 1M last year, will increase to 4M  this year, and then will jump to 27 next year and higher after that with year by year roster bonuses. 

And this is for @Matts4313 and @Broncofan as well - I also understand that when you sign extensions the cap hit in those first years is a lot lower because it pushes things back. However, even for like Amari Cooper's signing, the Browns did the same thing but I guess that was also technically an extension too?