2022 Player movement rumors (Free agency / Trades)

[Forge]

41 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

An extension though will keep his cap number low. And if it’s done after week 1 they can keep his number low.  Then add their ability $ to create 28M more with restructures of Lane Johnson / Darius Slay / Jason Kelce / Jake Elliott.   Finally if they resign Hargreave & CGJ they can backload the deal.   
 

Cap hell is real - but the new rules since they allowed voidable years with TB12 / Tampa means you can really push it back.    Philly wants to keep CGJ / Hargreave / Hurts it can be done quite easily with the tools GM Roseman has.   

I see no reason for him to let it get to week one. I wouldn't expect that to happen. 

The first year will be relatively low for sure, but only compared to the rest of his deal. His current cap hit for next year is 4.8 million. It's not going to be lower than that. Kyler's was nearly 13 last year and I would expect a similar set up with a signing bonus and then a fully guaranteed option bonus the following year after his rookie contract actually expires. 

I don't think that they will go the Watson route with super high base salaries beyond the first year. So I would expect a cap hit next year of 10-15 million. 

They can restructure Slay and Lane to make some money (i'd say their restructures would save roughly 23 million based on stretching out 29 million in base salaries over 5 years with void years) but Elliott would be pretty nominal (they still have to make the league minimum on base + you're adding a prorated bonus on to the year...maybe you can lower his cap hit 2-2.5 million?).

Are you sure that kelce is actually under contract next year? both Spotrac and OTC have a very weird provision on their kelce contracts. Spotrac's is orange (which is typically what they use for void years) and indicates he's a UFA in 2023 and OTC has a note on his contract that states that Lane Johnson's contract basically voids on june 3? 

So they probably have 30 million in space. It gives them money to work with, but it's not a ton without some other moves and whether or not i have to adjusted for any crazy escalations on Kelce's contract if they don't bring him back. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I see no reason for him to let it get to week one. I wouldn't expect that to happen. 

The first year will be relatively low for sure, but only compared to the rest of his deal. His current cap hit for next year is 4.8 million. It's not going to be lower than that. Kyler's was nearly 13 last year and I would expect a similar set up with a signing bonus and then a fully guaranteed option bonus the following year after his rookie contract actually expires. 

I don't think that they will go the Watson route with super high base salaries beyond the first year. So I would expect a cap hit next year of 10-15 million. 

They can restructure Slay and Lane to make some money (i'd say their restructures would save roughly 23 million based on stretching out 29 million in base salaries over 5 years with void years) but Elliott would be pretty nominal (they still have to make the league minimum on base + you're adding a prorated bonus on to the year...maybe you can lower his cap hit 2-2.5 million?).

Are you sure that kelce is actually under contract next year? both Spotrac and OTC have a very weird provision on their kelce contracts. Spotrac's is orange (which is typically what they use for void years) and indicates he's a UFA in 2023 and OTC has a note on his contract that states that Lane Johnson's contract basically voids on june 3? 

So they probably have 30 million in space. It gives them money to work with, but it's not a ton without some other moves and whether or not i have to adjusted for any crazy escalations on Kelce's contract if they don't bring him back. 

It's off the OTC site - Kelce's void year is 2024 - he and Elliott save 2.5M each with a restructure (well Elliot's is 2.4M).  The big $ is as you outlined, Slay 12.25M & Johnson 10.6M, so that's 27.7M.   With the 4.7M they have, that's 32.4M, but realistically you need to knock off 3-4M for draft picks too.   
 

28M for the 3 guys in year 1, though - is very do-able.   AJ Brown's 4/100M deal for 2023-6 has a year 1 cap # of 8.3M.    Reddick's 3/45M had a 3.8M cap# in year 1.    Deshaun's 5/230M contract only came with a 9.4M cap hit.   Realizing that Hurts already has a 4.8M cap hit, let's assume Hargreave gets close to AJB $, CGJ gets up to Reddick $, and Hurts gets close to Watson $ - that's still only 23.5M cap hit combined if you really push it back as much as possible - and Hurts "only" costs <5M more for 2023 under that formula, so it's actually only a net increase of 19M.

The crazy part?   In 2024, they can pull the same restructure trick with Mailata, Reddick, Goedert & Sweat to create 40M extra in space, with almost 20M of extra space added as well (it's 47.6M in current 2024 space, but that would drop by the 27.7M they pushed back with 2023 retstructures).    Now, with the escalating cap hits from the 2023 deals, a lot of that 60M would be for Hurts / CGJ / Hargreave's year 2 - AJB's year 2 is 12.4M, Reddick's is 20.7M (but can be pushed down), and Watson's hit goes nuts to 50M+.  So 2024 is probably the last year they can keep this current group, and they have to likely cut someone to re-sign Slay, and let Barnett walk.   

But looking at the #'s, if they want Hargreave & CGJ and extend Hurts for 2023+ (even before Week 1), they can keep the gang together for 2023-4.   After that, the butcher's bill comes due, but given they'd have enjoyed a 3-year legitimate SB window to contend.    The cap maneuvering weapons GM's have to work with now are just so different than pre-TB & TAM. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[MikeT14]

3 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The Raiders are signing Payne, sorry buddy. Washington owes us after the Gruden fiasco. 

Psh. Did you a favor. 

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Psh. Did you a favor. 

Did you really though? Things aren't exactly trending in a positive direction in LV, lol.

[NYRaider]

The Seahawks and Geno Smith are expected to get a deal done soon and he reportedly has no interest in testing free agency. So you can take one veteran QB option off the market.

[Nabbs4u]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

The Seahawks and Geno Smith are expected to get a deal done soon and he reportedly has no interest in testing free agency. So you can take one veteran QB option off the market.

Absolute mirage, mistake not drafting one of these Rookie QB in the top 5.

Pete is 100 years old so, makes sense not want to worry about Rookie QB woes!

[Forge]

36 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It's off the OTC site - Kelce's void year is 2024 - he and Elliott save 2.5M each with a restructure (well Elliot's is 2.4M).  The big $ is as you outlined, Slay 12.25M & Johnson 10.6M, so that's 27.7M.   With the 4.7M they have, that's 32.4M, but realistically you need to knock off 3-4M for draft picks too.   
 

28M for the 3 guys in year 1, though - is very do-able.   AJ Brown's 4/100M deal for 2023-6 has a year 1 cap # of 8.3M.    Reddick's 3/45M had a 3.8M cap# in year 1.    Deshaun's 5/230M contract only came with a 9.4M cap hit.   Realizing that Hurts already has a 4.8M cap hit, let's assume Hargreave gets close to AJB $, CGJ gets up to Reddick $, and Hurts gets close to Watson $ - that's still only 23.5M cap hit combined if you really push it back as much as possible - and Hurts "only" costs <5M more for 2023 under that formula, so it's actually only a net increase of 19M.

The crazy part?   In 2024, they can pull the same restructure trick with Mailata, Reddick, Goedert & Sweat to create 40M extra in space, with almost 20M of extra space added as well (it's 47.6M in current 2024 space, but that would drop by the 27.7M they pushed back with 2023 retstructures).    Now, with the escalating cap hits from the 2023 deals, a lot of that 60M would be for Hurts / CGJ / Hargreave's year 2 - AJB's year 2 is 12.4M, Reddick's is 20.7M (but can be pushed down), and Watson's hit goes nuts to 50M+.  So 2024 is probably the last year they can keep this current group, and they have to likely cut someone to re-sign Slay, and let Barnett walk.   

But looking at the #'s, if they want Hargreave & CGJ and extend Hurts for 2023+ (even before Week 1), they can keep the gang together for 2023-4.   After that, the butcher's bill comes due, but given they'd have enjoyed a 3-year legitimate SB window to contend.    The cap maneuvering weapons GM's have to work with now are just so different than pre-TB & TAM. 

I don't know about the Kelce thing, though it may not matter, I'm guessing that the expectation is that he retires. But this is the note on OTC about his contract which makes me think that's he's not back and why OTC says that it basically just voids before next season. I'm not sure where the large guarantee comes from (obviously there are no future base salaries for void years) . What I'm seeing around various eagles sites is that he's a free agent. Fan Duel lists him as a free agent as well. I think it's just a situation where they kind of did a delayed void year that doesn't hit until after 6/1 when they can spread the hit. That would save 1.5 after 6/1, but obviously if they do want to bring him back, then he would cost more. 

Quote

Contract Notes

Jason Kelce signed a one year, $14 million contract with the Eagles. $14 million is guaranteed including a $10.13 million signing bonus. The 2023 season is a placeholder in the event that Kelce retires or is released. He has a $2.75 million roster bonus that is guaranteed that year. If on the roster after June 2nd of 2023 a large guarantee kicks in for 2024

I think it's possible, but I think that they are sacrificing some next year, but i agree with you that the butcher bill comes due - I'd guess probably in 2025 though? 

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Nabbs4u said:

Absolute mirage, mistake not drafting one of these Rookie QB in the top 5.

Pete is 100 years old so, makes sense not want to worry about Rookie QB woes!

I could see them taking Stroud if he's there but I'm assuming that he and Young will both be off the board before the Seahawks pick. I don't think Richardson/Levis are worth the 5th overall pick but they do have the luxury of taking that risk if they fall in love with one of them.

[Trentwannabe]

There is some smoke around Jordan Poyer being interested in joining Miami 

[Broncofan]

29 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't know about the Kelce thing, though it may not matter, I'm guessing that the expectation is that he retires. But this is the note on OTC about his contract which makes me think that's he's not back and why OTC says that it basically just voids before next season. I'm not sure where the large guarantee comes from (obviously there are no future base salaries for void years) . What I'm seeing around various eagles sites is that he's a free agent. Fan Duel lists him as a free agent as well. I think it's just a situation where they kind of did a delayed void year that doesn't hit until after 6/1 when they can spread the hit. That would save 1.5 after 6/1, but obviously if they do want to bring him back, then he would cost more. 

I think it's possible, but I think that they are sacrificing some next year, but i agree with you that the butcher bill comes due - I'd guess probably in 2025 though? 

Fair enough on Kelce,  so let's leave his 2.5M restructure saving - it still leaves the Iggles with 25M saved via restructuring the 3 other guys, and 4.6M in space already there.   Let's say they only have 25M in space with the draft $ - the 3 contracts for Hurts / CGJ (similar or less than Reddick's at 3/45M max) / Hargreave (similar or less to AJ Brown's at 4/100M max), only creates 19M more in 2023 year 1 contract hits.      Then with the 2024 22M space already there +40M in restructures with Goedert/Sweat/Reddick/Mailata - they can squeeze through 2024.

So yeah, I think 2025 is the right ETA on the butcher's bill.    By then, if they haven't won a title, well, they had their window with this core. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[Jakuvious]

On 1/23/2023 at 10:19 AM, minutemancl said:

(Although, I'm not actually sure about the Graham and Cox numbers. I thought those contracts voided after this year, but looking at some sites, now I'm not sure. It looks like the Cox contract may actually start voiding in 2024? The Eagles and Saints do some extremely funky stuff with their contracts.)

If you go to Cox's page on Overthecap, they have a bit of an explanation listed there:

Quote

Fletcher Cox signed a one year, $14 million contract with the Eagles. The contract is fully guaranteed. $12.5 million was advanced and is treated as a signing bonus. There is a dummy year included for 2023 and 2024 which are simply in place to allow the Eagles to utilize the June 1 cut designation with Cox next year. The cap hits are reflective of how it will actually impact the salary cap for Philadelphia in those years.

Quote

The Eagles and Brandon Graham agreed on a two year contract in 2021 worth $18.5 million. Graham received a $10.9 million signing bonus as part of the contract and has a $6.25 million option in the 2nd contract year. The Eagles included four additional years on the contract which will essentially serve as void years for salary cap proration. Technically there are massive salaries in the late years of the contract that will guarantee if Graham is on the roster on the 2nd day of the 2023 league year. The reason for this instead of the void is to allow the Eagles to use a June 1 cut provision in 2023 and split the remaining dead money in the contract between 2023 and 2024.

Philly is going a step beyond the just adding void years, bit. Adding void years, but also real years that they won't actually pay so they can split money that hits when the contract voids over two years instead of one. So Graham and Cox (and Kelce, actually) are under contract for 2023, but they seem very confident that those 2023 salaries won't actually be played out.

But beyond this, Cox's looks a little weird, because they're still paying dead money from his last contract. Last year they actually cut him with a June 1st designation and then resigned him. So from his prior contract, they paid about $13M in dead money last year, an they'll pay about $15M this year in dead money. They will then cut him again this year as a June 1st designation (whether they bring him back or not, again, we'll see), which should give them an additional $4M in dead money (so about $19M total this year), and then another $7.5M next year.

I don't know how it's known that the 2023 years are dummy years for them, because on the actual page it will show it as an actual contract year. But I assume there's something in the contract details saying as such because all the reporting on Cox's deal listed it as a 1 year $14M deal, and he's been paid the full $14M already, so the 2023 base salary basically can't actually exist.

 

Personally, I'm not a huge fan of this degree of cap shenanigans. It all adds up to less flexibility eventually. But now with Hurts having an MVP caliber season on a rookie deal, it makes all this far more worth it. Had Hurts not taken that leap...could've been gross. But basically they got Cox for $4M this year at the cost of maybe not having him at all but paying him a ton next year and the year after, cap-wise. They will, at some point, have to have a catch up year. Maybe Graham and Cox and Kelce retiring would be their trigger for that, but we'll see. If all were to retire, they will actually cost the Eagles more cap wise post-retirement than they did this past season, by a long shot. If retirements were to hold out on being official until after June 1st, they'd split the cap between two years....but it'll still be very very expensive for players not playing anymore.

[minutemancl]

10 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

If you go to Cox's page on Overthecap, they have a bit of an explanation listed there:

Philly is going a step beyond the just adding void years, bit. Adding void years, but also real years that they won't actually pay so they can split money that hits when the contract voids over two years instead of one. So Graham and Cox (and Kelce, actually) are under contract for 2023, but they seem very confident that those 2023 salaries won't actually be played out.

But beyond this, Cox's looks a little weird, because they're still paying dead money from his last contract. Last year they actually cut him with a June 1st designation and then resigned him. So from his prior contract, they paid about $13M in dead money last year, an they'll pay about $15M this year in dead money. They will then cut him again this year as a June 1st designation (whether they bring him back or not, again, we'll see), which should give them an additional $4M in dead money (so about $19M total this year), and then another $7.5M next year.

I don't know how it's known that the 2023 years are dummy years for them, because on the actual page it will show it as an actual contract year. But I assume there's something in the contract details saying as such because all the reporting on Cox's deal listed it as a 1 year $14M deal, and he's been paid the full $14M already, so the 2023 base salary basically can't actually exist.

 

Personally, I'm not a huge fan of this degree of cap shenanigans. It all adds up to less flexibility eventually. But now with Hurts having an MVP caliber season on a rookie deal, it makes all this far more worth it. Had Hurts not taken that leap...could've been gross. But basically they got Cox for $4M this year at the cost of maybe not having him at all but paying him a ton next year and the year after, cap-wise. They will, at some point, have to have a catch up year. Maybe Graham and Cox and Kelce retiring would be their trigger for that, but we'll see. If all were to retire, they will actually cost the Eagles more cap wise post-retirement than they did this past season, by a long shot. If retirements were to hold out on being official until after June 1st, they'd split the cap between two years....but it'll still be very very expensive for players not playing anymore.

Great explanation; that is way more in depth than I wanted to get into looking into it. I knew there was shenanigans with cutting Cox this past offseason, then resigning him, but I didn't know all the details.

All in all, I don't see how this is a situation you'd want to be in after this year. This year, great, you kept all your good, older players that are allowing you to compete for a Super Bowl. With the chickens come home to roost next year, or the year after? Or both? Who knows. I know they will have to pay Hurts soon though, and I don't know how they'll be able to do that and keep players like CGJ and Hargrave with the mess they have on their hands from some of these contracts.

[jetjuice]

14 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

There is some smoke around Jordan Poyer being interested in joining Miami 

Makes sense, he lives here in the offszn.