2022 Player movement rumors (Free agency / Trades)

[Forge]

1 minute ago, Nabbs4u said:

Not sure what's hard to grasp? Adams and Hill set the bench mark for all WR contracts and trades from this point forward. Both contract and trade demands will "only" go up from here on out, not stay the same, not go down. Every supposed Stud top 5 WR yet to get paid their 2nd contracts that follows. Thus the compensation will be more then Adam/Hill regardless if said WR is deem better or not. Just like with the QB market. Price for everything WR just went up. 🤷‍♂️👍

What I don't understand is why you think that there is going to be a general inflation on trade values? 

I mean, we may see more trade demands, and obviously you see inflation on pay because the cap increases. But what's driving the inflation of trade values? 

20 years ago, Keyshawn Johnson was traded for two firsts and I can't think of another receiver trade that did that. And that was back before the rookie wage scale. While fans still overrate picks, I'd actually say they are more valuable now than when the Jets and Bucs made that deal. 

 

[Nick_gb]

34 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Not sure what's hard to grasp? Adams and Hill set the bench mark for all WR contracts and trades from this point forward. Both contract and trade demands will "only" go up from here on out, not stay the same, not go down. Every supposed Stud top 5 WR yet to get paid their 2nd contracts that follows. Thus the compensation will be more then Adam/Hill regardless if said WR is deem better or not. Just like with the QB market. Price for everything WR just went up. 🤷‍♂️👍

Yet what you think the 49'ers will get for Deebo is much much more than what The Chiefs and Packers got for Adams and Hill? Trade compensation isn't going to go up overnight, that's not how inflation works. You're attempting to fast forward a train wreck of a thought process - when in all actuality as long as contract inflation on the WR market is steadily increasing to astronomical numbers, it's not going to impact the amount you're going to be required to give up to get said WR. 

In fact, it's much easier to argue that trade compensation will more than likely go down as opposed to up, DUE to the amount the team is having to PAY the player on TOP of that compensation. 

[incognito_man]

15 hours ago, SkippyX said:

He is not. 

4 years younger than Adams. One more cheap year.

Yeah, he is.

[massraider]

Deandre Hopkins changed the game for WRs, not Adams or Hill.

Why do people include dead money at the end of deals? It doesn't count.  

The agent likes these numbers so he can recruit more clients, it's not a number anyone should use for real, certainly not when you are making some point. 

[massraider]

12 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Not sure what's hard to grasp? Adams and Hill set the bench mark for all WR contracts and trades from this point forward. Both contract and trade demands will "only" go up from here on out, not stay the same, not go down. Every supposed Stud top 5 WR yet to get paid their 2nd contracts that follows. Thus the compensation will be more then Adam/Hill regardless if said WR is deem better or not. Just like with the QB market. Price for everything WR just went up. 🤷‍♂️👍

Prices will go up. 

Hot take. 

[Chiefer]

3 hours ago, incognito_man said:

4 years younger than Adams. One more cheap year.

Yeah, he is.

Hes more injury prone than either 

certainly doesnt break the game like Hill either

[Chiefer]

2 hours ago, massraider said:

Deandre Hopkins changed the game for WRs, not Adams or Hill.

Why do people include dead money at the end of deals? It doesn't count.  

The agent likes these numbers so he can recruit more clients, it's not a number anyone should use for real, certainly not when you are making some point. 

Yeah they leak these deals to media people to make themselves look good. In turn that media guy gets the scoop, and talks it up as a great deal and reports only max numbers because they want to keep getting leaks. Really feeds back into itself in a loop

Edited April 9, 2022 by Chiefer

[Chiefs_5627]

5 hours ago, incognito_man said:

4 years younger than Adams. One more cheap year.

Yeah, he is.

I'd be absolutely shocked if the 9ers were to get more than we got for Hill. 

'22 - 1,2,4

'23 - 4,6

[Forge]

36 minutes ago, Chiefs_5627 said:

I'd be absolutely shocked if the 9ers were to get more than we got for Hill. 

'22 - 1,2,4

'23 - 4,6

I wouldn't be, but it also depends on how you "value" things. Pick #10 is more valuable than pretty much all of those selections combined based on the older TVC and they are really close on the Rich Hill value chart. 

Of course, I have no idea if #10 would actually be on the table (I don't believe it would be, but I'll keep open the possibility). 

If #10 isn't on the table, 35 / 38 / 69 is about the same value as the Chiefs return as well, and I feel like that could easily be on the table. 

I wouldn't trade more for Deebo than I would for Hill, but also wouldn't surprise me if someone did (don't think t would be substantially more tough)  and I wouldn't be surprised if the returns are comparable. 

FTR, on the Rich hill chart the value of the current picks for the Chiefs is 343 + a future 4th & 6th would would probably be another 20-25 if you're discounting for a future year. You can say 370. On the old fashion TVC, it's 1092 + another probably 50 or so if you're discounting, so say 1150 just to round....pick 10 is 1300 / 369 and 35 / 38 / 69 is 1315 on the old one and 393 on the Hill model. Honestly, the niners could give back pick 105 in that situation and it would still be about even. 

[iknowcool]

I like Deebo Samuel a lot, but I'd like to see him put together another strong, healthy season before I trade or pay anything outlandish for him.

[Matts4313]

I think Deebo is incredible - - in Shanny's system. There is maybe 2-3 other HC's where he would be as impactful as he is right now. 

 

I think his trade compensation is lower than Adams/Hill. 

[Forge]

47 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

I think Deebo is incredible - - in Shanny's system. There is maybe 2-3 other HC's where he would be as impactful as he is right now. 

 

People are really letting the running back system thing cloud their judgment on what he is as a traditional receiver. Before the niners moved him into the backfield last year, he was destroying it as just a regular receiver last season as well (nearly 1K yards through 9 games).  He doesn't need a specific system to succeed as a wide receiver. He's just running normal routes. His YAC ability is the driving force of his success, for sure...but that shouldn't be system related. He's a certain type of receiver, but every "system" should have that guy who feasts underneath. 

There are fewer systems that would utilize him out of the backfield, yes. But if Deebo doesn't fit your passing system, there's something wrong with your system. 

I get what you are saying with regards to the impact, but I think the narrative impact was greater than the actual productive impact. His yards production was pretty similar weeks 10+ as it was when he was mostly playing wide out for the niners and the TDs just saw a very minor uptick, but given obviously just one touchdown has a sizeable impact here. The difference was just in how he obtained the production...but the actual production wasn't all that different. 

Games 1-9 (started taking more snaps out of the backfield in game 9...this was the change over): 115 ypg (109 receiving, 6.5 rushing) , .8 TD / G. 

Games 10-17 (started playing a lot of snaps out of the backfield and there's a notable uptick in carries): 105 YPG (61 receiving, 44 rushing),  1 TD / G (he also had a passing TD, not really sure what to do with that) 

Now, whether or not you believe that production as a straight up receiver is sustainable is a totally valid question. 

[Nick_gb]

20 minutes ago, Forge said:

People are really letting the running back system thing cloud their judgment on what he is as a traditional receiver. Before the niners moved him into the backfield last year, he was destroying it as just a regular receiver last season as well (nearly 1K yards through 9 games).  He doesn't need a specific system to succeed as a wide receiver. He's just running normal routes. His YAC ability is the driving force of his success, for sure...but that shouldn't be system related. 

There are fewer systems that would utilize him out of the backfield, yes. But if Deebo doesn't fit your passing system, there's something wrong with your system. 

I get what you are saying with regards to the impact, but I think the narrative impact was greater than the actual productive impact. His yards production was pretty similar weeks 10+ as it was when he was mostly playing wide out for the niners and the TDs just saw a very minor uptick, but given obviously just one touchdown has a sizeable impact here. The difference was just in how he obtained the production...but the actual production wasn't all that different. 

Games 1-9 (started taking more snaps out of the backfield in game 9...this was the change over): 115 ypg (109 receiving, 6.5 rushing) , .8 TD / G. 

Games 10-17 (started playing a lot of snaps out of the backfield and there's a notable uptick in carries): 105 YPG (61 receiving, 44 rushing),  1 TD / G (he also had a passing TD, not really sure what to do with that) 

Now, whether or not you believe that production as a straight up receiver is sustainable is a totally valid question. 

I would guess that kind of production is more likely to see regression then it is to see repeated or even an uptick in. 
 

As far as Deebos value, I really think the only way system should be brought into this is if the two teams offering trade packages differ in the sense that 1 won’t utilize him out of the backfield and the 2nd one will. The latter would hold more value in terms of trade comp then what the former one would. 
 

Deebo is certainly a stud in his own right and it certainly isn’t based on Shanny system. 

[Forge]

7 minutes ago, Nick_gb said:

I would guess that kind of production is more likely to see regression then it is to see repeated or even an uptick in. 
 

Same. I don't think the yac performance is sustainable

[NYRaider]

On 4/9/2022 at 2:44 PM, Matts4313 said:

I think his trade compensation is lower than Adams/Hill. 

Youth plays a role but if he is really dead set on the biggest non-QB contract in NFL history then I'd agree. 

On 4/9/2022 at 1:31 PM, iknowcool said:

I like Deebo Samuel a lot, but I'd like to see him put together another strong, healthy season before I trade or pay anything outlandish for him.

That's the one knock for him is that he really only has one year of elite production and he has had a ton of injuries dating back to his days at South Carolina.