Sandy Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Good evening friends. This is my first of possibly three, but let’s be honest probably one, mock Packers offseasons. I was preparing to debut this a bit later in the week but I have a feeling a few off-season dominoes are about to go underway - the biggest of which being Aaron’s official ‘decision’ on his season. While everyone here would appreciate it if he could do with less of the melodramatics this season, all signs - at this time - are pointing to Rodgers signing an extension to clear maximum space. I believe this may set off a chain reaction of events in which veteran free agents look to sign short term deals to chase a championship - much like the Broncos with Peyton and the Bucs with Brady. The difference? This QB didn’t get traded. First - I used online sources for all dollar info, draft prospects and player rankings, possible contracts, etc. Many were one off sites that I compared against one another but some of the largest contributors: Overthecap.com - I used this for current salary cap figures, calculating salary cap hits for free agents and resigned players, extensions and restructures (based on the figure they gave for “maximum cap savings”), cap space cleared from releasing players, and more. If their numbers are off, then mine are too. PFF.com - specifically their top 200 free agents breakdown, where I almost directly pulled some of their ‘projected contracts’ from. Spotrac.com for a list of current packers UFAs, ERFAs, and RFAs, as well as market value for some of our free agents. Current Salary Cap +/- : -50.79m Extensions: Aaron Rodgers QB Cap effect: +21.1m Admittedly OvertheCap didn’t get the option to submit contracts when it was calculating extension savings, but with this extension, our bed is now made for better or for worse. Btw - I left extra cap space later on in case we can only clear, say, $16m or so. Adrian Amos S Cap effect: +5.1m A gifted defender at a position of high need who has played better than advertised since being brought in as a free agent. Jaire Alexander CB Cap effect: +9.81m A cornerstone player for a defense, his coverage on one side of the field makes things easier for the rest of the defense. Back to full strength he should be the face of the franchise for the early post-Rodgers Packers. Dean Lowry Cap effect: +3.61m A solid starter who fills a need and gets surprising push in the pass rush. New Cap +/- : -11.17m Restructures David Bakhtiari LT Cap effect: +8.19m Almost a guarantee this year, turning his roster bonus into a signing bonus. Kenny Clark NT Cap effect: +9.54m Similar situation to Bakh. Billy Turner OL Cap effect: +3.51 Another who turning salary into a signing bonus can cause a nice bit of savings. I toyed with cutting him for similar savings but with injury uncertainty on the line I figured I’d rather we kept him around at least one more season. New Cap +/- : +10.07 Cuts Za’Darius Smith EDGE Cap effect: +15.28m I love having him on the team but I think he and everyone already knows it’s time for him to find another team that can offer a 3 or 4 year deal with a big contract. Preston Smith EDGE Cap effect: +12.47m I went back and forth for a long time - which Smith to extend? Ultimately, I came to the conclusion to let them both go so we can sign effective but more affordable players to take their spots. Randall Cobb IWR Cap effect: +6.75m He was still effective as a player this season, but the caps hit is untenable at his current deal. Mason Crosby K Cap effect: +2.39m The second longest tenured Packer, he’s somehow survived worse seasons than the one last year, but I think this time it feels different. Caps off to an excellent career and a lot of great memories. Ty Summers LB Cap effect: +0.96m I was surprised to see him have such a big amount of cap savings if we release a player who was marginal to make the roster anyway. New Cap +/- : +47.92m Resignings Randall Cobb IWR (1yr 1.5m total) Cap effect: -1.5m After he gets released he signs a much more team friendly deal as he knows the Packers remain his best option. De’Vondre Campbell ILB (3 years, 18m total, 6m signing bonus, 10m guaranteed, 2 void years) Cap effect: -2.5m We know he’s in Green Bay already - presumably to work out a new deal? This deal gives him guarantees but allows the Packers to get out after 2 years saving an 8m 2024 non-guaranteed base salary. Rasul Douglas CB (4 years, 30m total, 10m signing bonus, 15m guaranteed, 1 void year) Cap effect: -3.04m After the season he said he wanted to come back. While that could have obviously been lip service for the team that helped him get a big payday, I think he is sincere about sticking around if he gets paid. This deal should be more than enough to keep him off the open market. Corey Bojorquez P (3 years, 5m total, 1m signing bonus, 1.5m guaranteed) Cap effect: -1m Lock in a good young punter for the next few seasons. Dennis Kelley T (1 year, 2m total) Cap effect: -2m He’s a solid swing tackle who comes back in case Turner opens the year at LG. Yosh Nijman T (1 year, 1m total) Cap effect: -1m The RFA probably doesn't get a lot of attention as a backup tackle and can be brought back on an affordable deal and a competition for a roster spot. Chandon Sullivan S/CB (3 years, 6m total, 1.5m signing bonus, 1.5m guaranteed) Cap effect: -1.5m Another player worth more to GB than most other teams in the league. He signs to back us up at both corner and safety and to play a key role on ST. Whitney Mercilus EDGE (2 years, 4.3m, 2m signing bonus, fully guaranteed, three void years) Cap effect: -1.52m After cutting both Smiths, I think bringing Mercilus back is a good value. He wanted to come to play for GB for a discount - fully guarantee a two year deal and he likely wants to come back again. Am I forgetting anyone? Oh yeah. Davante Lavell Adams WR (5 years, 125m total, 40m signing bonus, 80m guaranteed [all in first three seasons] vet min salary for this season) Cap effect: -9.12m If Rodgers comes back I know Davante will too. The perk of this deal for Adams - while the 5 year deal does NOT beat the average annual value of DeAndre Hopkins’ 2 year extension, his 80m guaranteed in the first three seasons does. What’s best - if Rodgers retires after three seasons and Adams is still performing at a high level, he has 2 years, 44m left if we decide to trade him - and that’s a very tradable contract in the modern NFL. New Cap +/- : +24.74 Packers Free Agents Lost: Allen Lazard - Gave ROFR tender but he signed with Detroit and we didnt match. MVS - someone is going to pay him more than he’s worth. Not realistic he comes back. EQ St. Brown - Also signed with detroit to play with his brother. Kevin King - Doesn’t make a team out of training camp, you heard it here first. Robert Tonyan - Signs with Cincinnati actually. Splits time with another TE there. Lucas Patrick - Gets starter money in Jacksonville. Oren Burks - Another marginal player who latches on to be a backup elsewhere Isaac Yiadom, Jack Heflin, Tyler Lancaster - cheaper, better, younger players are already competing for roster spots. ERFA Brought Back: Malik Taylor, WR Randy Ramsey, OLB Krys Barnes, LB Henry Black, S Dom Dafney, TE Chauncey Rivers, DE Kurt Benkert, QB - Didn't have them effect the cap since they’re replacing, at best, other players making similar salaries in the top 51 contracts. External Free Agents Rob Gronkowski, TE (1 year, 8.5m total, 7m signing bonus, 8.5m guaranteed, 4 void years) Cap effect: -2.9m This sounds a bit wild at the start and is dependent on Brady staying retired and Gronk deciding not to. All he’s known is elite QB play and he’s in it for one last ring in this scenario. An elite blocker and receiver even at his age, he improves both our running and passing games. Either way, I’d like to see it sign a move TE better than Tonyan, a few of which are hanging out in the FA market. Also considered Ertz or Njoku here. Allen Robinson, WR (3 years, 46m total, 18m bonus, 30m guaranteed in first two seasons, minimum base this season, 2 void seasons) Cap effect: -4.72m If Gronk has never played with a sub-HOF QB, you could argue Robinson is his opposite. He had a down season that can be attributed to a bigger focus on the run game and inconsistent QB play in Chicago, but he still has the ability to be a big playmaking WR. He signs with GB to see what a real QB is like. Plays about 30% of his snaps in the slot so he’s versatile enough that we can target an outside receiver in the draft. I considered some other free agent WRs here but didn’t like any of the fits nearly as much. Darius Phillips, CB/ST (2 years, 3 million total, no bonus, 1.5 guaranteed first year) Cap effect: -1.5m A solid DB for subpackages, he also excels at special teams and is a gift for our new ST coordinator and an olive branch to the fans. Allows Chandon Sullivan to play more at Safety and he can be our dime package DB when all are healthy. Melvin Ingram III, EDGE, (1 year, 8m total, 6.5m bonus, fully guaranteed, 4 void years) Cap effect: -2.8m Ingram still can get after the rusher. Even if he has to come off the field on some early downs, we can save his snaps for third downs and other key plays to keep him fresh. N’Damukung Suh, DE (1 year, 5m total, 3.5m bonus, fully guaranteed, 4 void years) Cap effect: -2.2m Another older player who might be chasing championships this late in his career. Has certainly lost a step but is still an effective pass rusher if we can keep him fresh. New Cap +/- : +10.62m Accounting for about $4m in draft picks, we should enter the season with about $6.62m to make any mid-season upgrades as we move along towards the future. NFL Draft This draft, to me, seems top heavy at o-line and defensive back, but very deep at Edge, LB, and WR. I list our pre-draft needs after free agency as Edge, IOL, WR, TE, S, and ILB. None are urgent, so I’d like to see the draft come to us and make a decision in the first round. A lot hinges on the young QBs. There are 5 QBs I have seen that go either in the first 15 picks or not until the end of round 2 in mock drafts. If they all go between Carolina at 6 and Washington at 13, then some really talented players will slide on down to 28. My favorite player I had coming to us originally is EDGE Jermaine Johnson II from FSU, but I dont think he slips to the 21st pick - the earliest we could package our third rounder with our first to try and get him. After he’s gone, the Packers FO waits to see who falls down to pick 28. No EDGE rushers or IOL seem to be a good fit there, but a couple of the big 5 WRs in this draft start to slide… Round 1, Pick 28: Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas Age 21, 6’3 225 lbs I went back and forth here a lot. I think Drake London and Garrett Wilson are long gone here, and I’m not as interested in a slot type like Olave. Burks draws comparisons to Mike Evans and can be a consistent presence on the outside this season with Adams, Robinson, and Cobb capable of taking all the slot responsibilities. I didn’t think I’d go WR here but the value seems to be there if we stay at 28. Round 2, Pick 59: Myjai Sanders, EDGE, Cincinnati Age 21, 6’5, 242 lbs If JJII is gone before our first rounder, this is my next favorite fit at the edge. It’s a very deep year for rushers and I hope he doesnt jump up in draft board projections - I saw him go as early as the top of the second round in some mock drafts, the end of the third in others. Excellent pass rusher who can play the run very well, starting as the early downs specialist on the strongside. Room to grow into his frame and may measure out even bigger at the combine. TRADE: Picks 92 and 130 for 84 Round 3, Pick 84: Christian Harris, ILB, Alabama Age 21, 6’2 232 lbs It’s a very deep draft at linebackers, and this guy would be a surefire mid-second rounder most years. Right now he’s mocking consistently in the 2nd and 3rd. Covers running backs and TEs in coverage well, effective run stopper, and he can immediately come in and push Krys Barnes for snaps while being fluke insurance for Campbell. Round 4, pick 139 (comp): Chris Hinton, DE, Michigan Age 20, 6’4 310 lbs Prototype 5t with NFL bloodlines. Many were surprised he declared for the draft, and his draft rankings have ranged from 4th rounder to undrafted. I think the draft process will be kind to the young DE and think he gets a chance to rotate in our d-line with an eye on more meaningful snaps in 2023. Round 5, pick 170: Justin Shaffer, G, Georgia Age 23, 6’3 326 lbs Profiles as a solid overall player with a great chance at making a push for a starting job in the next couple seasons. Round 7, Pick 226: Luke Fortner, C/G Decent center prospect who I’ve seen ranging from a 2nd round grade to undrafted, with most leaning towards the later. Had a solid season but apparently played poorly in the senior bowl according to reports. Worth a shot and might make the roster if the team has concerns about injuries on the o-line. Round 7 Pick 247 (comp): Charleston Rambo, WR In round 7, just take guys with cool names. Round 7, Pick 258 (comp): Abram Smith, RB I actually like him to make a roster somewhere this season. Seen with a 5th to undrafted grade right now, he can compete with a few guys for the third roster spot at RB. Final Roster: Final notes: yes this makes new hoops to jump through in each of the next two years to fit under the cap, but I'd rather we went all in with this approach to the season and cause maximum cap pain 4 years from now before we start a rebuild. I considered trading Love but didn't think we'd get an offer better than his value as a backup QB/potential future starter. Edited February 22, 2022 by Sandy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 How much cap are you pushing into 2023? Rough calculations has about $180M in added 2023 cap charges 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 #1 Think Russ Ball is having enough heartburn at work, don't think he ever signs off on two large FA additions on top of what we're already doing to our cap. #2 If he did, I would hope we would not spend them on a WR/TE and leave the corpses of Melvin Ingram and Whitney Mercilus as the key cogs behind Gary for our pass rush. #3 Love Burks, see almost no chance he makes it to 28, I know we say Gute doesn't take round 1 WRs, but if a guy like that fell I think he would. I don't think Sanders has the functional strength to hold the EDGE in the NFL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) Not a fan of this one. Suh as a Packer made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Edited February 22, 2022 by Old Guy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jleisher Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Hey, it's different. Thanks! Everyone likes to nik pic, mine is I would want to keep one of the Smiths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Like the effort. Not going to comment on who stays or goes, this is just a projection. Can't comment on the draft picks, I have no clue who anyone is, nor will I this year. Can comment on free agents. No way do we sign this geriatric crowd of players. Grank. Suh. Ingram. Robinson. To me this would be an awful spend of money. I'd rather take a Smith back than sign these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Old Guy said: Not a fan of this one. Suh as a Packer made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Appreciate the effort, and always enjoy these, but yeah, I agree. I never want that clown shoe in the green and gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I will give you two pennies... I like the Gary-Mercilus-Draft pick combo. I don't know why you gave up on Garvin already though. I would rather add a safety somewhere in the draft. Probably in lieu of the ILB or RB, both rooms seem fine to me. Really don't like having the pass catchers all as old as me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Gross 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 hours ago, squire12 said: How much cap are you pushing into 2023? Rough calculations has about $180M in added 2023 cap charges Yeah this is where I mostly leave it to the pros, but I did make sure a lot of next year's dollars (at least half of the figure you mentioned) can get pushed again into the future. This is a total "scorched earth" in a few years scenario, but I do anticipate a big salary cap raise in the next 2-3 seasons and a rebuild for us. 5 hours ago, Packerraymond said: #1 Think Russ Ball is having enough heartburn at work, don't think he ever signs off on two large FA additions on top of what we're already doing to our cap. #2 If he did, I would hope we would not spend them on a WR/TE and leave the corpses of Melvin Ingram and Whitney Mercilus as the key cogs behind Gary for our pass rush. #3 Love Burks, see almost no chance he makes it to 28, I know we say Gute doesn't take round 1 WRs, but if a guy like that fell I think he would. I don't think Sanders has the functional strength to hold the EDGE in the NFL. I disagree on Sanders, thinking his 6'5 frame has plenty of room to grow. I think him plus Ingram and WM gives us plenty at the position. You're right on Ball though, I just think that if they go for it, you'll really see them go for it in an agressive, back-against-the-cap way. As for Burks, I could see him dropping to us only if his 40 clocks in around 4.55, which is possible IMO...even then he'd rely on how deep the position is and even a possible run on QBs between 6 and 13 to make it to us. A boy can dream. 4 hours ago, jleisher said: Hey, it's different. Thanks! Everyone likes to nik pic, mine is I would want to keep one of the Smiths. Appreciate it! I really wanted to keep one too but I think both would require at least a three year extension which I had a hard time squeezing in. Odds are we do keep one in the end, probably Preston. 3 hours ago, vegas492 said: Like the effort. Not going to comment on who stays or goes, this is just a projection. Can't comment on the draft picks, I have no clue who anyone is, nor will I this year. Can comment on free agents. No way do we sign this geriatric crowd of players. Grank. Suh. Ingram. Robinson. To me this would be an awful spend of money. I'd rather take a Smith back than sign these guys. Thank you! One thing that did shock me when I made this - Robinson is only 28. Surprisingly only a year older than MVS. The tread on his tires is a worn for his age, but he's the one FA signing I think makes the most sense of all of these. As for the old guys, I think it just follows the trend we've seen when these HOF QBs making their last stand with a franchise. 2 hours ago, Toddfather said: Appreciate the effort, and always enjoy these, but yeah, I agree. I never want that clown shoe in the green and gold. Yeah I'll probably not include him in my next one (probably released on the eve of unrestricted free agency) but I also think he's the kind of guy who will championship chase for the next couple years. 2 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said: I will give you two pennies... I like the Gary-Mercilus-Draft pick combo. I don't know why you gave up on Garvin already though. I would rather add a safety somewhere in the draft. Probably in lieu of the ILB or RB, both rooms seem fine to me. Really don't like having the pass catchers all as old as me. Thanks! Good point on Garvin, went back and forth with him getting that fifth Edge spot. Probably have him making the roster over Ramsey in the next one. I was displeased with my final result at S too but I don't see it as a particularly deep draft at the position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Sandy said: Thanks! Good point on Garvin, went back and forth with him getting that fifth Edge spot. Probably have him making the roster over Ramsey in the next one. I was displeased with my final result at S too but I don't see it as a particularly deep draft at the position. I have only looked at some pass rushers so far. So, the safety thing is more about what we have in the room at the moment vs anyone that I particularly like. I'm as big a Henry Black and Vernon Scott fan as you will find, but I think that there is room for improvement there. And being 100% honest, I skimmed over the re-sign of Chandon Sullivan, which should help that secondary. I think Garvin is a pretty good 3rd option IF he can develop a little more. I think his good was good, but his bad was real bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 First off, I have to say that I love the effort put into this mock @Sandy. And always a good choice for an avy. I'll try and breakdown my points as closely as I can. -> The Rodgers' extension is a pipe dream IMO. You've essentially managed to kick out his entire base salary (save ~$5M) and move it into the future. Anytime you do a mock, I don't think it's reasonable to assume that a player is going to give up money. I think any cap savings are going to be closer to half of what you've projected. -> Think there's too much savings projected on a Jaire Alexander extension. To lower his cap hit by nearly $10M, you'd lower his base salary to minimum (~$1M) and a signing bonus pro-rated around $2.5M which would be around $12.5M. Marlon Humphrey got $20M for comparison. Lattimore got $7.5M but his Y2 salary was ballooned to a massive $27.5M cap hit so unless you structure it similar I think Marlon Humphrey is a better contract comparison. -> The Allen Robinson contract looks bad. He gets roughly $1M this year plus his signing bonus which pro-rates to $3.6M/year. Y2 and Y3 cap hits are around $17M/year. Don't see him agreeing to that kind of deal unless his market has soured badly. Probably going to want a more level contract. -> Signing Melvin Ingram instead of re-signing Preston Smith or Za'Darius Smith seems like a poor decision. He's probably closer to what Whitney Mercilus signed for this past offseason. He hasn't been productive for 2 years now. -> We spend nearly $200M on WRs, drafted Amari Rodgers in the 3rd round a year ago, and re-sign Randall Cobb in this mock, but we draft a WR in the first round? I might throw my shoe at the TV if that's the case. We go from investing virtually nothing in the WR outside of Davante Adams to committing a ridiculous amount of assets to a player who probably won't play much as a rookie. DL and EDGE seem like better use of our resources. Overall this mock, seems unrealistically optimistic. We'd be eating a TON of cap in 2023, so unless you're expecting a massive cap influx I don't think allt hese deals are possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 hours ago, CWood21 said: First off, I have to say that I love the effort put into this mock @Sandy. And always a good choice for an avy. I'll try and breakdown my points as closely as I can. -> The Rodgers' extension is a pipe dream IMO. You've essentially managed to kick out his entire base salary (save ~$5M) and move it into the future. Anytime you do a mock, I don't think it's reasonable to assume that a player is going to give up money. I think any cap savings are going to be closer to half of what you've projected. -> Think there's too much savings projected on a Jaire Alexander extension. To lower his cap hit by nearly $10M, you'd lower his base salary to minimum (~$1M) and a signing bonus pro-rated around $2.5M which would be around $12.5M. Marlon Humphrey got $20M for comparison. Lattimore got $7.5M but his Y2 salary was ballooned to a massive $27.5M cap hit so unless you structure it similar I think Marlon Humphrey is a better contract comparison. -> The Allen Robinson contract looks bad. He gets roughly $1M this year plus his signing bonus which pro-rates to $3.6M/year. Y2 and Y3 cap hits are around $17M/year. Don't see him agreeing to that kind of deal unless his market has soured badly. Probably going to want a more level contract. -> Signing Melvin Ingram instead of re-signing Preston Smith or Za'Darius Smith seems like a poor decision. He's probably closer to what Whitney Mercilus signed for this past offseason. He hasn't been productive for 2 years now. -> We spend nearly $200M on WRs, drafted Amari Rodgers in the 3rd round a year ago, and re-sign Randall Cobb in this mock, but we draft a WR in the first round? I might throw my shoe at the TV if that's the case. We go from investing virtually nothing in the WR outside of Davante Adams to committing a ridiculous amount of assets to a player who probably won't play much as a rookie. DL and EDGE seem like better use of our resources. Overall this mock, seems unrealistically optimistic. We'd be eating a TON of cap in 2023, so unless you're expecting a massive cap influx I don't think allt hese deals are possible. Thanks for the detailed evaluation! I too was pretty dubious about the savings that OTC was predicting for those extensions, and agree that even a few million less in cap saving derails most of what I have coming after. I wanted to crunch it myself but felt the pressure of Rodgers' Tuesday "announcement" so I rushed it out. Also agree that this makes things rough for future years...a lot of these deals can make 2023 not too bad if we push money out...but around 2025 it's going to be way worse than the Saints are now, barring a huge raise in the salary cap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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