AG20 Positional Draft Thoughts

[squire12]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

 

3. GB's biggest cap hit this year (other than Rodgers) is Bakhtiari at $13.4 million. You really think they're going to accept a cap hit of $20 million for a guy that isn't playing?

GB doesn't have to exercise the 5th year option.  They can opt to negotiate a short- moderate length deal before that decision.

Options

1.  Exercise 5th year option.  Unlikely asthe value isn't there assuming Rodgers is QB in 2024

2.  Let Love play out 4 years of his rookie deal then let Love hit UFA after 2023.

3.  Negotiate a short- moderate length deal before the 2023 season.

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

4. Love has the leverage of point #3. "There is no way in hell you can accept me playing on the 5th year option in the year that constitutes your last shot at a ring in the Rodgers era."

Where did I say GB would exercise the 5th year option?

You are creating an argument that I'm not making.  

[Old Guy]

15 minutes ago, squire12 said:

GB doesn't have to exercise the 5th year option.  They can opt to negotiate a short- moderate length deal before that decision.

Options

1.  Exercise 5th year option.  Unlikely asthe value isn't there assuming Rodgers is QB in 2024

2.  Let Love play out 4 years of his rookie deal then let Love hit UFA after 2023.

3.  Negotiate a short- moderate length deal before the 2023 season.

Where did I say GB would exercise the 5th year option?

You are creating an argument that I'm not making.  

What would motivate a guy who thinks he can start in the league to do this? 

[OneTwoSixFive]

17 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I agree with some of what @AlexGreen#20 posted (some of his post is reproduced below in italics), but not all. Here are my reservations.

QB: The “is it time to trade Jordan Love?” conversation needs to be happening with the upcoming deadline of the Draft. Rodgers contract (pending retirement) locks him in as the Packers QB until after the 2024 season. Jordan Love has a 5^th year option for the 2024 season that would pay him a sum of money that’s intolerable for a backup.

Since there is a very good chance Rodgers plays only 1-2 more years, and since there hasn't been much time on the field to really know where Loves ceiling is, why would you trade him ? You probably won't get what you paid for him and the Packers have already paid the buy-in price (in terms of draft picks). If Love is traded this year and Rodgers leaves after 2023, the Packers have to restart their search for a new QB from scratch. As a minimum they should keep Love through 2022, to find out what he's got. So in short, no it isn't time to re-visit trading Love, it is instead, a time for patience.

OT: Elgton Jenkins is going to get his shot at RT when he returns. The release of worn-down Billy Turner opens the path for Jenkins to step in on the edge and show that he can be a stand out there in a full time role. Jenkins has shown he can play Tackle at a high level, but he’s never been penciled in to start on either side when anything other than injuries have forced it. For the first time, Jenkins will be asked to play on the edge with the plan being for him to be there and stay there for the entire season.

The Packers have no other option if they hope to retain Jenkins long term. He’s playing on the last year of his rookie deal, and if they force him to play at Guard, it will be seen by Jenkins and his camp as an attempt to sabotage his upcoming pay day. That will create bad blood between Jenkins and the Packers and will almost guarantee his departure.

The Packers see Jenkins as a long term piece, so they will try to sign him if he looks good coming off his ACL injury. Signing him may require paying franchise Left Tackle money to a guy paying Right Tackle, but it is difficult to envision a scenario where the Packers let a young stud, who is playing a premium position walk away.

David Bakhtiari has 3 more years left on his contract, and the specifics of that deal practically guarantee that he is with the Packers through at least the 2023 season. With LT locked down for at least two more seasons, and RT expecting to be locked down for 4+ years after this year, it seems unlikely that the Packers will spend a premium pick on a Tackle. If they do choose to turn in that card, it’s a likely indication that Elgton Jenkins will be playing for a new team in 2023.

I don't see it as a slam dunk Jenkins is offered the RT spot long-term and I also don't see it as anything like a slam dunk he will be annoyed if he stays at guard.  It is very possible the Packers go OT early this year, keep Jenkins at guard and have him as a high-quality backup at tackle, if there is an injury. Suppose (for example) OT Penning is available at pick 22. He could make an excellent mauling RT for the future. I won't say Jenkins to RT can't happen, it might - I just don't see it as any kind of slam dunk, just one of several possibilities.

.

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by OneTwoSixFive

[squire12]

7 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

24 minutes ago, squire12 said:

GB doesn't have to exercise the 5th year option.  They can opt to negotiate a short- moderate length deal before that decision.

Options

1.  Exercise 5th year option.  Unlikely asthe value isn't there assuming Rodgers is QB in 2024

2.  Let Love play out 4 years of his rookie deal then let Love hit UFA after 2023.

3.  Negotiate a short- moderate length deal before the 2023 season.

Where did I say GB would exercise the 5th year option?

You are creating an argument that I'm not making.  

What would motivate a guy who thinks he can start in the league to do this? 

GB has to decide on Love 5th year option after around draft time for 2023.  GB can also choose to sign an extension.

So GB and Love have 3 options

1.  exercise the 5th year option.   Unlikely unless Rodgers decides to retire/is not going to be the GB beyond the 2023 season

2.  Let Love play out the 4th year of his rookie deal and then hit the FA market.

3.  Negotiate a short-moderate length deal before the 2023 season

 

What exactly would Love market be after not having played in regular season games for 4 years?  I think the vast majority of teams looking for a QB would opt to go with
A.  more proven veteran that has NLF game experience
B.  a rookie that would be cheaper and have more youth for a long term option

Sure, Love could be brought in as a "QB competition" type situation.  Those are the Trevor Siemian ($4.0M), Andy Dalton ($3.0M), Blaine Gabbert ($2.25M), Nick Mullens ($2.0M) type contracts.    All those players have (would have) more NFL starts than Jordan Love would by the time Love is a UFA after the 2023 season.

 

What I am saying Option 3 is for both GB and Love is a short-moderate length contract that would offer him more money with the opportunity to start after the 2024 season.  His opportunity to start would not be greater elsewhere if he goes the UFA route after the 2023 season.   Say it is something like

5 year deal with $15M signing bonus and some roster bonus that become guaranteed on the 7th day of the league year for 2025.  Add in some performance triggers that bump the base or roster bonus money or void the last few years if Love has:  X TD's /  X Yards  / players X % of the snaps at QB

	Jordan Love	BASE SALARY	SIGNING BONUS	ROSTER BONUS	CAP HIT
2024	Jordan Love	$1,500,000	$3,000,000		$4,500,000
2025	Jordan Love	$1,500,000	$3,000,000	$10,000,000	$14,500,000
2026	Jordan Love	$1,500,000	$3,000,000	$15,000,000	$19,500,000
2027	Jordan Love	$1,500,000	$3,000,000	$20,000,000	$24,500,000
2028	Jordan Love	$1,500,000	$3,000,000	$20,000,000	$24,500,000
			$15,000,000	$65,000,000	$87,500,000

 

Love gets his shot at a starting QB gig after Rodgers is done following the 2024 season.  GB is paying Love a very reasonable cap hit in 2024.  Love is getting $15M signing bonus in 2023 before the 4th year of his rookie contract starts.  

Like I said, it would be a negotiation process.  If Love shows the development, GB would have incentive to possibly have their QBOTF.  If Love doesn't develop, this upcoming off season, then GB lets Love hit UFA and begins the search for the next QBOTF.

If a deal like this happens and Rodgers plays 2022, 2023 and 2024, GB has a consistent QB2 for those years with reasonable cap hits.  If Rodgers retires/is gone after 2024, Love gets his audition year in 2025 with a low cap charge (or even the ability to shift the $10M roster bonus due in 2025 over the length of the remaining 4 years if needed)

The longer Love is not the starter or getting regular season meaningful snaps, his value drops and his leverage drops as well.  

 

Granted, there are a lot of ifs in this process, but there are options that can be good for all parties involved.

 

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I'm aware of the implications of what I said. I fully expect a pro bowl caliber year at RT from him. 

I think you're quite a bit more optimistic about Jenkins' return then I am.  Figure a ~9 month recovery puts him around the end of August, early September.  I'd imagine he'd start the year on the PUP list, so he's missing the first ~6 weeks of the season so you're getting about 11 games out of him.  And you expect him to return back to form right away?

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Old Guy said:

What would motivate a guy who thinks he can start in the league to do this? 

In terms of comparisons, is it honestly much different then the extension that Rodgers got in his first year starting?  Personally, I'm of the belief that Rodgers is going to go 2 years max.  I think 3 is a possibility, but I think it's more likely he retires after 1 year then he plays 3 more years with Green Bay.  You'll play Jordan Love on either his 5th year option or a franchise tag in 2024.  I think there'd be motivation for both sides to get a long-term deal done that isn't at elite QB money.  You probably get something that's somewhere in between high-end backup and low-end starting QB money with a ton of incentives built into the deal.

[TransientTexan]

8 hours ago, squire12 said:

Based on the link above.  Live likely falls into this group

"For first-round picks that don't fall into any of these three categories, the fifth-year salary is the average of the third through 25th highest salaries at a player's position."

I think the confusion comes from whether we're talking base salary or cap hit. There have been some websites in the past that would say the average of the 3rd-through-25th "cap hit". And to further confuse the matter, sometimes on other matters, there are websites and blogs that would colloquially use the term "salary" when discussing things that are obviously cap hits. 

At any rate 3rd-25th base salary for a QB would be $17.5m $8.2m this year. And if contracts inflate at about the same rate as the league salary cap (which seems to escalate by 7% each year), that would mean the figure will probably be about $20m $9.4m in 2024. 

Either way, it's a lot to pay a backup QB, esp if your #1 is averaging top-5 $ at the position. But I agree that there might be some compromise possible with Love where they give him an incentive-laden deal in lieu of the 5th-yr option. A deal that would boost his 5th-yr pay over $20m $9.4 but have a lower-than-$20m$9.4m cap hit. & just have the 2nd year of the deal be ridiculously high base salary (like $40m) so Love knows he is guaranteed to be cut that year and have he chance to either test the market, or renegotiate a longer-term deal in GB. 

On the other hand, between now and then, if he is only mediocre in the preseason and doesn't really get reg season snaps, you gotta figure that maybe it's just time to cut bait. He should show *something* by then if he was ever going to show anything. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by TransientTexan
spotrac sorting glich undid position filter

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

I think the confusion comes from whether we're talking base salary or cap hit. There have been some websites in the past that would say the average of the 3rd-through-25th "cap hit". And to further confuse the matter, sometimes on other matters, there are websites and blogs that would colloquially use the term "salary" when discussing things that are obviously cap hits. 

At any rate 3rd-25th base salary for a QB would be $17.5m this year. And if contracts inflate at about the same rate as the league salary cap (which seems to escalate by 7% each year), that would mean the figure will probably be about $20m in 2024. 

Either way, it's a lot to pay a backup QB, esp if your #1 is averaging top-5 $ at the position. But I agree that there might be some compromise possible with Love where they give him an incentive-laden deal in lieu of the 5th-yr option. A deal that would boost his 5th-yr pay over $20m but have a lower-than-$20m cap hit. & just have the 2nd year of the deal be ridiculously high base salary (like $40m) so Love knows he is guaranteed to be cut that year and have he chance to either test the market, or renegotiate a longer-term deal in GB. 

On the other hand, between now and then, if he is only mediocre in the preseason and doesn't really get reg season snaps, you gotta figure that maybe it's just time to cut bait. He should show *something* by then if he was ever going to show anything. 

Where are you getting 17.5? I see three different websites listing it at 19.6.

[TransientTexan]

7 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Where are you getting 17.5? I see three different websites listing it at 19.6.

I just went to the salary rankings page at spotrac and sorted by 2022 Base Salary. Then calculated the average of those numbers from 3rd thru 25th.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/base/quarterback/

>edit

nevermind, it looks like the 2nd time I sorted, it undid the 'QB' field sort, so $17.5m is wrong. that would be the 3rd-25th for all positions, not QB. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by TransientTexan
sorting mistake

[MrBobGray]

Love this post and the effort that went into it, wish I had more to add frankly.  I agree with basically all of your conclusions and the breakdowns leading to them, so it's hard to add a lot.  I'll try to address what I see as the big elements:

• Packers have to move Love.  12's contract is structured so that he's not going anywhere before 2024 at the earliest, which is impossible not to read as a "Love isn't starting on his rookie contract so you better get rid of him now" message.  Problem of course is that other teams know that the Packers have almost no leverage here, so it's hard to imagine how they'd get anything close to value for him.  The only possible pivot here for Green Bay is keeping Love around as an expensive back up for the next two seasons; he's absolutely gone by the time his 5th year option comes due, unless he somehow ends up starting due to injury and looks like the future.
• Jenkins is Pro Bowl bound at RT if he stays healthy.  I'm with you 100% here, and I think Jenkins is somehow still underrated by the fanbase.  They can't keep him at guard, he's shown stud OT potential and you don't keep that guy inside when you have a gaping hole at OT.  He's such an instinctual player, feels like he's been targeting guys' weaknesses since day one in the league, and you rarely see a player that young be that canny.
• Agree IOL is pretty set for this year, minus the additional bodies in waiting you always try to keep stocked.
• DL is a lowkey concern for me.  Lowry is underrated, but I can't see the team giving him another contract because he's just not that guy.  Can't pay your glue guy a third contract, even if I love what he brings.  Think Slaton has legit starting potential, but infuriatingly I think his best possible fit if everything hits clashes with what you already get from Kenny.  Kenny is the rare NT who provides actual pressure, which is more or less Slaton's ceiling as well.  You really need a legit pass rusher inside to bring out the best of both; that being said, for 2022 you could do a lot worse than those two inside with Gary/Preston outside.  Even just in his current form Gary is a very scary player when the QB can't step up, and Clark/Slaton has the potential to really crush the pocket if TJ can keep that weight down and spend the next four months doing nothing but learning to keep OL from getting their hands on him.  That being said they will absolutely be spending a 1st or 2nd on an IDL.
• Edge they just need to restock the cupboard behind the studs.  Garvin can play some minutes and I think he has a jump in him still, but he just doesn't have the talent to be the #3.  Randy Ramsey is a pretty clear lock to get the snaps Burk got last year, and C. Rivers surprised me a bit, he's got good size, decent hands, and he's tough in the run game, but unless there's a huge jump in there the Packers are spending an early pick here for sure.
• At CB, I just can't be too worried here.  There's only so much depth you can reasonably expect, and I do still like Kabion Ento as a dark horse candidate, back of the roster guy.  SJC was a rookie, hard to say what you have there, but still a chance he can make a jump too.  I'll take this top three and some uncertain depth all day, but I do expect the Packers to spend a pick or two late to help fill this group out.
• WR - man who the hell knows.  This group is such a madhouse right now.  If Watkins and Cobb stay healthy (lol no) this isn't as bad as it looks.  If they don't, it might actually be worse!  Lazard is a stud, honestly I'm higher on him than most, but he's also such a big part of their run game that it's hard to see him playing at 100% all that often.  Team need a legit X so bad it legitimately hurts.  Winfree has a bit of upside still IMO, but him being able to carry this perimeter receiving group is a bet I would literally never take.

Edited April 20, 2022 by MrBobGray

[R T]

Rivers isn't on the team anymore. 

[MantyWrestler]

On 4/17/2022 at 9:31 AM, AlexGreen#20 said:

I'm aware of the implications of what I said. I fully expect a pro bowl caliber year at RT from him. 

Why? Coming off an ACL and also factor in that IMO he is way better inside than OT, I just don’t see it. 

[JBURGE]

I don't understand what's so controversial about what AG is saying about Elgton. When healthy this year, he played like a plus LT. Some team would sign him for top 5 LT money assuming a solid season this year, which I think is realistic. I don't think Elgton is accepting a $16m deal from us when he can get $20M+ on open market. 

[MantyWrestler]

Call me crazy but I just didn’t see it with Jenkins at LT. Serviceable for sure but not pro bowl. At OG he may be the best in the league. OT, man top half?

[vegas492]

11 hours ago, MantyWrestler said:

Call me crazy but I just didn’t see it with Jenkins at LT. Serviceable for sure but not pro bowl. At OG he may be the best in the league. OT, man top half?

Not that I agree with your statement, but if you do feel that way about him at LT, then you certainly don't see him as a RT.  

For the record, I've thought from Day One that he can play every position on the OL at a "plus" or high level.  But, I've also thought that RT was the worst / toughest position for him.