rthom348 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 On 8/3/2022 at 11:00 PM, SkippyX said: @rthom348 I still think the Pack should be favorites in the division. I just see them as a 9-11 win team instead of their recent 12-13 and fighting for #1 seed years. Like all predictions, I could be completely wrong. I personally can’t imagine a wide receiver, no matter how great he may be at what he does, being worth 3-4 wins in a single season. Based off of that notion, it’s fair to assume you’d think the Packers would’ve had a dip in their total wins even if they still had Davante right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 11 hours ago, rthom348 said: I personally can’t imagine a wide receiver, no matter how great he may be at what he does, being worth 3-4 wins in a single season. Based off of that notion, it’s fair to assume you’d think the Packers would’ve had a dip in their total wins even if they still had Davante right? They lost Davante, MVS, ESB, Turner, and Patrick on offense The biggest 2 offsets to these departures are both massive injury question marks in Bahktiari and Watkins. Hoping a chronically injured OL will both recover and then also stand up to all the simulated car wrecks at the line in NFL games and perform at their previous elite status is a lot to ask. (See Jason Peters in Philly. I hoped every time and it was very hit and miss on what we got) PFF predicts the Lions at 3rd for O-lines (Tier 1) and GB at 5 (Tier 2) This is the first line on the Packers write up: Health and development are both going to be massive for this Packers offensive line. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-unit-rankings-tiers-2022 That sounds like hope. It was also written on June 13th before the Bahktiari setback. Rodgers is not a throw to the new guy type of QB. He's a back shoulder and throw to wide open guys QB. His low INTs are not because he's 3x more accurate than everyone else. Adams was the best player in the NFL last year and one of the best of all time at getting wide open. Its what he does. This is not a rip on Rodgers. Finding the 1 open guy out of 3 to 5 targets while people are trying to kill you is artistry. The best QBs like Brady and Rodgers build chemistry with their WRs so they make the same read on the D in real-time and make more plays. He's lost years of chemistry with those 3 guys walking away at the same time. There is also the factor of the new WRs being injured or missing some time and Rodgers complete refusal to go to voluntary camp when reps with the new guys are what is needed the most. He was busy snorting South American plants or something. He is probably very comfortable with Cobb, but Cobb is now 32 and was last dominant in 2014. The Packers D should be very good. The Packers O is lots of hope, Rodgers, Jones, and Dillon, at this point. If Lazard can go 477, 451, 513, 1450 from years 2 to 5 then everything will be fine. The Packers also won 5 games last year by 3 points or less and some of them were 4 picks from Baker or the Ravens not having any professional CBs left so they went for 2 out of desperation. There is zero reason to think they will be a 13+ win team this year. Their expected wins last year was 10.4. They were clutch and they had some luck. The teams they faced were not clutch and they had bad luck. You can't assume either again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 No one is going to try to sell Turner, Patrick, and Kelly as awesome lineman who will be greatly missed (although Turner was very good for them at times) What you can currently say about the Packers O-line is that they don't have the consistency that is needed for good lines to become great. The new CBA does not let you practice enough so you get lots of your reps together in actual games. Whoever those 5 guys will be don't really have that yet. Also the only one that is truly special may never regain that form. Aikman has reacted to replays of Jenkins running over people (mostly at guard), but those highlights aside he's not exactly Orlando Pace. Put it another way. People who think the Packers are only relying on Rodgers QB greatness are missing that they are also relying on Gutekunst's GM greatness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockice_8 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 I'll just stick to the AFC East Bills - 13-4 Dolphins - 9-8 Jets - 7-10 Pats - 6-11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rthom348 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, SkippyX said: No one is going to try to sell Turner, Patrick, and Kelly as awesome lineman who will be greatly missed (although Turner was very good for them at times) What you can currently say about the Packers O-line is that they don't have the consistency that is needed for good lines to become great. The new CBA does not let you practice enough so you get lots of your reps together in actual games. Whoever those 5 guys will be don't really have that yet. Also the only one that is truly special may never regain that form. Aikman has reacted to replays of Jenkins running over people (mostly at guard), but those highlights aside he's not exactly Orlando Pace. Put it another way. People who think the Packers are only relying on Rodgers QB greatness are missing that they are also relying on Gutekunst's GM greatness. The Packers didn’t have Bak for the whole year. Jenkins missed half the year. Turner missed a quarter of the year. MVS started less than half the games. Patrick started 3/4 of the year as a replacement and was less than spectacular. Not sure why ESB was even referenced lol. Even the guys who played the majority of the season were moving around the line, playing different positions. The offensive line was anything but a model of consistency last year. They have questions along the line, just like last season. They had no Jaire Alexander. No Zadarius Smith. Barely any Tonyan. Their kicker had one of the lowest made kick percentages in the entire league. The special teams was among league worst. They still won 13 games for the 3rd straight year. Am I predicting another 13? Not necessarily. I’d comfortably predict 12+. To say there’s no reason to predict 13 wins is iffy. It’s happened every year with the LaFleur/Rodgers partnership. But no one knows yet 🤷♂️ *edit* You’re underrating Jenkins a ton. Him at RT is great. Edited August 5, 2022 by rthom348 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 17 hours ago, rthom348 said: The Packers didn’t have Bak for the whole year. Jenkins missed half the year. Turner missed a quarter of the year. MVS started less than half the games. Patrick started 3/4 of the year as a replacement and was less than spectacular. Not sure why ESB was even referenced lol. Even the guys who played the majority of the season were moving around the line, playing different positions. The offensive line was anything but a model of consistency last year. They have questions along the line, just like last season. They had no Jaire Alexander. No Zadarius Smith. Barely any Tonyan. Their kicker had one of the lowest made kick percentages in the entire league. The special teams was among league worst. They still won 13 games for the 3rd straight year. Am I predicting another 13? Not necessarily. I’d comfortably predict 12+. To say there’s no reason to predict 13 wins is iffy. It’s happened every year with the LaFleur/Rodgers partnership. But no one knows yet 🤷♂️ *edit* You’re underrating Jenkins a ton. Him at RT is great. Not to mention they could have won 14 games last year had they not had to start Jordan Love against us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rthom348 Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 8 hours ago, Soggust said: Not to mention they could have won 14 games last year had they not had to start Jordan Love against us. Yeah it seems all the question marks can only be seen as negative or go against the Packers. Not sure why, since the proof is in the pudding. I’d rather be going into a season, knowing they’re minus two pro bowl level linemen instead of losing them halfway through a season and needing to adapt with inferior players as replacements. They’re going to have the replacements already penciled in and then add Bakhtiari/Jenkins if they’re healthy enough to go. I’m not overly concerned with the offensive line. My only concerns are based on future injuries, whatever they may be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 On 7/19/2022 at 6:33 AM, Soggust said: W# Team Rec Div 1 Chiefs 14-3 4-2 7 Chargers 11-6 3-3 9 Broncos 9-8 2-4 13 Raiders 6-11 3-3 N# Team Rec Div 2 Ravens 13-4 4-2 5 Bengals 12-5 3-3 10 Steelers 9-8 4-2 16 Browns 3-14 1-5 S# Team Rec Div 3 Titans 12-5 5-1 8 Colts 11-6 4-2 12 Jaguars 7-10 2-4 15 Texans 5-12 1-5 E# Team Rec Div 4 Bills 11-6 5-1 6 Patriots 11-6 4-2 11 Jets 8-9 3-3 14 Dolphins 6-11 0-6 ================================================================== 1 Buccaneers 14-3 6-0 6 Saints 10-7 3-3 12 Panthers 4-13 1-5 16 Falcons 2-15 2-4 W# Team Rec Div 2 Rams 14-3 5-1 5 49ers 11-6 4-2 8 Cardinals 8-9 2-4 15 Seahawks 2-15 1-5 N# Team Rec Div 3 Packers 14-3 6-0 10 Vikings 6-11 3-3 11 Lions 6-11 2-4 14 Bears 3-14 1-5 E# Team Rec Div 4 Commanders 10-7 5-1 7 Cowboys 9-8 4-2 9 Eagles 8-9 3-3 13 Giants 3-14 0-6 Sorry to bump (although arguably this is the kind of thread you are supposed to reflect on), but wow I am stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 28 minutes ago, Soggust said: Sorry to bump (although arguably this is the kind of thread you are supposed to reflect on), but wow I am stupid. I don't think you did that bad. No one knew the two South divisions would be so awful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) Not sure where else to ask this but why do the Packers automatically get in if they win vs the Seahawks b/c the common teams W/L % is better for the Seahawks than the Packers and it's currently #3 on the tiebreaker list. My boss is asking me questions too early and I don't have the answer b/c they are equal in tiebreaker 1 and 2 but the Seahawks have the edge in common opponents. Edited January 5, 2023 by BobbyPhil1781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Not sure where else to ask this but why do the Packers automatically get in if they win vs the Seahawks b/c the common teams W/L % is better than the Packers and currently #3 on the tiebreaker list. My boss is asking me questions too early and I don't have the answer b/c they are equal in tiebreaker 1 and 2 but the Seahawks have the edge in common opponents. nvm ignore me Edited January 5, 2023 by Soggust read the schedule wrong lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acgott Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Not sure where else to ask this but why do the Packers automatically get in if they win vs the Seahawks b/c the common teams W/L % is better for the Seahawks than the Packers and it's currently #3 on the tiebreaker list. My boss is asking me questions too early and I don't have the answer b/c they are equal in tiebreaker 1 and 2 but the Seahawks have the edge in common opponents. Packers would have a better conference record Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, Acgott said: Packers would have a better conference record That is the #4 tiebreaker. Why wouldn't we apply #3? Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acgott Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, BobbyPhil1781 said: That is the #4 tiebreaker. Why wouldn't we apply #3? Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Not for wild card. Common games is #3, behind conference. if they are in the same division, it would be h2h, division, common, conf https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, Acgott said: Not for wild card. Common games is #3, behind conference. if they are in the same division, it would be h2h, division, common, conf https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures AHA! That's what I was missing. The smaller bold part. Thank you!! He was driving me nuts w/ this too early in the AM lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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