Jlowe22 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, domepatrol91 said: What we did today is definitely rare. First time we’ve ever done it, to be certain. I just don’t like most ESPN stats, they’re all skewed to favor exciting football (like their QBR rating is atrocious). Up 14 in the third doesn’t seem that crazy to come back from, certainly not crazy enough have the win percentage in the high 90s as if it was the same (or very similar) as being down 15 with 3 minutes to play. I think they make the percentages higher to make games seem “rare” when they get closer in the 4th. IMO trying to put a percentage on it at all is a asinine. There are far to many variables in football for a type of measurement like that. That said, with 4 minutes left I put the phone in my pocket and clocked in early from my lunch break. I didn’t even give us the 0.3% chance ESPN did. I don't like ESPN either. I don't like their stats, I don't like their shows, I don't like their commentators, I don't like their QBR, and MNF is approaching TNF territory to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartica4Real Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, domepatrol91 said: What we did today is definitely rare. First time we’ve ever done it, to be certain. I just don’t like most ESPN stats, they’re all skewed to favor exciting football (like their QBR rating is atrocious). Up 14 in the third doesn’t seem that crazy to come back from, certainly not crazy enough have the win percentage in the high 90s as if it was the same (or very similar) as being down 15 with 3 minutes to play. I think they make the percentages higher to make games seem “rare” when they get closer in the 4th. IMO trying to put a percentage on it at all is a asinine. There are far to many variables in football for a type of measurement like that. That said, with 4 minutes left I put the phone in my pocket and clocked in early from my lunch break. I didn’t even give us the 0.3% chance ESPN did. Just FYI I did some quick "research" (aka looked at Twitter for more info). Largest 4th quarter comeback in Saints history (and that includes the entire quarter, let alone just 3 mins left). The last time a team came back from down 15 with <3 mins left was 2011 (Denver vs Miami). So yeah it's really rare. I agree not 99.7% rare though. 99.7% was the same chance the Patriots had when down 28-3 with 3:30 left in the 3rd. I think that was a lot harder and took a lot more Falcon mistakes than how hard it was for us to come back and the Skins didn't need as many mistakes. The intentional grounding, not getting the 1st down on 3rd & 1, and not being able to stop us for 3 drives. Doesn't seem as egregious as all the SB LI mistakes so I don't agree with them having it as the same percentage chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, Spartica4Real said: Just FYI I did some quick "research" (aka looked at Twitter for more info). Largest 4th quarter comeback in Saints history (and that includes the entire quarter, let alone just 3 mins left). The last time a team came back from down 15 with <3 mins left was 2011 (Denver vs Miami). So yeah it's really rare. I agree not 99.7% rare though. 99.7% was the same chance the Patriots had when down 28-3 with 3:30 left in the 3rd. I think that was a lot harder and took a lot more Falcon mistakes than how hard it was for us to come back and the Skins didn't need as many mistakes. The intentional grounding, not getting the 1st down on 3rd & 1, and not being able to stop us for 3 drives. Doesn't seem as egregious as all the SB LI mistakes so I don't agree with them having it as the same percentage chance. How many games since 2011 though? When did it happen before 2011? Or even easier, how many times has it happened in NFL history(since maybe the Super Bowl era). I would guess you would have to narrow that down to games played where a 15 point comeback was necessary within that time frame, since it obviously isn't attempted if it's not. Thats a lot of games, and I would suspect very few 15 point comebacks with 3 something minutes left. We had to score two TDs, a two point conversion, make a quick stop, the make another stop outside of field goal range. Im not saying it's more rare than the Pats comeback though, and 99.7% does seem high. EDIT: It also helped us a lot that we had just enough time left to not have to recover an inside kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whodatworm23 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 My first post since the 1st quarter... I was so hammered by the 3rd quarter, lol Just wanted to drop in and say this was one of the best 4th quarters ive experienced in the dome. Team showed lots of resiliency today. Props to Skins tho... Gave a winning performance with an undermanned team in a hard place to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted November 20, 2017 Author Share Posted November 20, 2017 I've been huge on Hill ever since he had 5 random TDs one year and Payton resigned him to a decent deal. I actually took him in an Adopt a Saints one year, obviously that didn't pan out but he's a very underrated piece to our offense. He scored the 1st 4th quarter TD and sealed the edge for Kamara's 2-pt conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dome Posted November 20, 2017 Author Share Posted November 20, 2017 Also. We ran for a MUST HAVE 2-point conversion and never threw the ball in OT. Is this actually the Saints?!?!?!??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 32 minutes ago, domepatrol91 said: Also. We ran for a MUST HAVE 2-point conversion and never threw the ball in OT. Is this actually the Saints?!?!?!??! Had to make up for all that lost time earlier in the game. Seriously though, The Redskins weren't stopping our run, we should have ran like we did against the Bills until they stopped it. Make them force a punt even before mixing it up. Instead, Payton went cute mode like he does when we lose and go 7-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navysaintsfan Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 hour ago, domepatrol91 said: Also. We ran for a MUST HAVE 2-point conversion and never threw the ball in OT. Is this actually the Saints?!?!?!??! Sean Payton needs to realize this is now a Run First team. Never thought I would say that. But we are. The sooner Payton fully accepts this, the better. Glad we have a pass attack that is as good as it is as a backup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartica4Real Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Jlowe22 said: Had to make up for all that lost time earlier in the game. Seriously though, The Redskins weren't stopping our run, we should have ran like we did against the Bills until they stopped it. Make them force a punt even before mixing it up. Instead, Payton went cute mode like he does when we lose and go 7-9. Plot twist: Sean didn't run the ball much today just cause he wanted to let Brees sling it and give him some of that confidence that he's still the same elite guy we all know and love. We will go back to your regularly scheduled programming of runs next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Spartica4Real said: Plot twist: Sean didn't run the ball much today just cause he wanted to let Brees sling it and give him some of that confidence that he's still the same elite guy we all know and love. We will go back to your regularly scheduled programming of runs next week. Well it worked, because we would have lost without slinging it all over the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyler735 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, navysaintsfan said: Sean Payton needs to realize this is now a Run First team. Never thought I would say that. But we are. The sooner Payton fully accepts this, the better. Glad we have a pass attack that is as good as it is as a backup! I have mixed feelings on this. Today I think we should have ran it down their throats, which we got away from more than we should have as the run game was clearly dominant throughout the game. However I think in the coming weeks/playoffs, we are going to play some stout defenses that may key in on the run from the get go, and will probably be able to slow it down. In these games we need to key in on what the defense will give us. The most encouraging thing I saw today is Drew Brees showing when it's crunch time, he can still lead a lethal passing attack. There were a lot of negatives today, but Brees leading us on a perfect 11/11 and 2 touchdowns in the final minutes made me believe we can still have a pick your poison type offense. Also, it was great to see the velocity Brees was putting on some of his throws today. He threw a few darts that answered some questions regarding how much arm strength he has left. It will be huge for Payton to accurately gauge the flow of the game, which certainly wasn't great today, but I think we do have the talent on offense to be a true pick your poison type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, tyler735 said: I have mixed feelings on this. Today I think we should have ran it down their throats, which we got away from more than we should have as the run game was clearly dominant throughout the game. However I think in the coming weeks/playoffs, we are going to play some stout defenses that may key in on the run from the get go, and will probably be able to slow it down. In these games we need to key in on what the defense will give us. The most encouraging thing I saw today is Drew Brees showing when it's crunch time, he can still lead a lethal passing attack. There were a lot of negatives today, but Brees leading us on a perfect 11/11 and 2 touchdowns in the final minutes made me believe we can still have a pick your poison type offense. Also, it was great to see the velocity Brees was putting on some of his throws today. He threw a few darts that answered some questions regarding how much arm strength he has left. It will be huge for Payton to accurately gauge the flow of the game, which certainly wasn't great today, but I think we do have the talent on offense to be a true pick your poison type. Yea, I was impressed with some of those throws. I wasn't sure he had any left. That's as strong as his arm as looked in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Iowa Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 This win is a great loss that we can build on. The team are all shaking their heads at this, and know they beat the odds. This should result in some focus. To have Brees get us back in the game, and then to put it on the shoulders of the D and running game in overtime is something we haven't seen in......a long time, and something we weren't capable of until this year. We really need a "statement" win on the road next week. The Rams are gonna play pissed, and we better play focused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSK Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 What a game fella's Same ole Saints then came the 2017 Saints just in the nick of time. Serious depth issues on Defense showed up today. Mauti and Harris shouldnt be on the field unless its special teams and I doubt Harris should even do that. (Help me out here because this is what I see) The defense is seriously flawed when they play as much zone as they played today. SO as the coach, you have to see this right? There is always a way to put players in better situations. Is Dennis Allen really the right guy going forward? He can make halftime adjustments with the correct players as we've seen this year. He can not make adjustments to his scheme to fit players. Am I wrong here? Von Bell is not a replacement for Vaccaro. He's better just being the SS. Please keep that kid out of the slot. lol 3rd down defense was good only allowing 4/12 for 33%. Red Zone defense was atrocious. 3rd down offense was not good at 4/12 for 33%. Red Zone offense was forgettable. Way too many FGs instead of TDs. I think we all knew Payton would have a game or two where the run was abandoned. Hopefully, this is the only one, although 3 of the more critical plays in the game he called a run play so that is promising. I'm trying to stay positive if you cant tell. lol Losing the TOP should be a kick to the n**s to Payton. That's one important stat that has helped the defense during this win streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossierWhoDat Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Sorry to say, but some of yall really need a chill pill sometimes lol This win took a lot of luck and a lot of faith from the players and coaches. Will you guys have some faith NOW? This team is gud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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