ThatJerkDave Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 (edited) 56 minutes ago, squire12 said: I think you need to define what not panning out would be. Over the first 4 years of his career..... ?? Receptions in a season ?? Yards in a season ?? Positioned as a top 20 WR based on ???? For a first round WR, I would say that not panning out (obviously not hard rules here) would be: No 1000 yard seasons, or leading the team in yards. No season with more than 5 TDs. Less than 50 or 60 receptions per season. Edited April 8, 2023 by ThatJerkDave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NFLGURU Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, HokieHigh said: its hard to know who will bust until you know what team/system they will be on. most prospects aren't just bad. most fail when they are a square peg going through a circle hole. Agree, gotta know what team and system he's in. Playing with Mahomes vs Sam Darnold makes a big difference. Edited April 8, 2023 by NFLGURU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieHigh Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said: For a first round WR, I would say that not panning out (obviously not hard rules here) would be: No 1000 yard seasons, or leading the team in yards. No season with more than 5 TDs. Less than 50 or 60 receptions per season. i would apply this to TE as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieHigh Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said: For a first round WR, I would say that not panning out (obviously not hard rules here) would be: No 1000 yard seasons, or leading the team in yards. No season with more than 5 TDs. Less than 50 or 60 receptions per season. i actually would apply these thresholds to 2nd round picks too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R T Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said: For a first round WR, I would say that not panning out (obviously not hard rules here) would be: No 1000 yard seasons, or leading the team in yards. No season with more than 5 TDs. Less than 50 or 60 receptions per season. Bust and not panning out seem like they are different things. A bust would be a 1st round player who doesn't make it through their first contract, not panning out would be a player not receiving a second contract from their drafting team. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 59 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said: Rice was not nearly as big as advertised. When I looked at the WRs a week or so before the combine, he was listed in some places as 6'3 or 4 and he is 6'1 at the combine. He also kind of has the Jordan Addison vibes with his highligts. Check out the Arkansas WRs while you look at BFW. Matt Landers and Jadon Hazelwood. I like them both, and they hit most of your athletic wants. Hazelwood is a tad slower than you would like. But I think both of these guys will be 6th round to undrafted. I'll check all three out tonight and see where they slide in. I've been taking Landers a lot in the 7th in mock draft simulators based on testing but I'm excited to see what he has. As for Rice, if he's there in the third round and we didn't fill the position adequately, I'm totally down. Sure, he didn't look particularly big, but he never looked small. And he showed a lot of different skills. He's a smooth athlete with natural hands, but I also didn't feel there's anything "special" about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tperk Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 Just thinking about this today...when was the last time the Packers picked a player in the first round that was kind of a consensus pick for us? Walker and Wyatt weren't really looked at as coming here. Same for Stokes and Love. Going back maybe Gary was a good possibility for us when mock drafts were looked at in 2019. But before that it was maybe Raji??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Tperk said: Just thinking about this today...when was the last time the Packers picked a player in the first round that was kind of a consensus pick for us? Walker and Wyatt weren't really looked at as coming here. Same for Stokes and Love. Going back maybe Gary was a good possibility for us when mock drafts were looked at in 2019. But before that it was maybe Raji??? Kinda hard to have a consensus when you're consistently picking in the bottom third of the first round on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, Tperk said: Just thinking about this today...when was the last time the Packers picked a player in the first round that was kind of a consensus pick for us? Walker and Wyatt weren't really looked at as coming here. Same for Stokes and Love. Going back maybe Gary was a good possibility for us when mock drafts were looked at in 2019. But before that it was maybe Raji??? Everyone wanted HaHa Clinton-Dix. But we were also kind of thinking that it would have to fall just right for us to get him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tperk Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Kinda hard to have a consensus when you're consistently picking in the bottom third of the first round on a regular basis. That's true, but it seems like alot of our FRPs seem to come outta left field when they are announced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetana34 Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Tperk said: That's true, but it seems like alot of our FRPs seem to come outta left field when they are announced. Your last consensus was probably AJ Hawk. I know a few here wanted Vernon Davis, and a smaller portion liked Huff, but I think Hawk was the obvious pick the majority of that draft season. The year we started Raji there was a lot of pass rushers being mocked to us also. Everette Brown, Aaron Maybin, Cushing, a few might've had Matthews that early. There was a lot going on that year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smidgeon Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Tperk said: Just thinking about this today...when was the last time the Packers picked a player in the first round that was kind of a consensus pick for us? Walker and Wyatt weren't really looked at as coming here. Same for Stokes and Love. Going back maybe Gary was a good possibility for us when mock drafts were looked at in 2019. But before that it was maybe Raji??? Bulaga. The only consensus obvious pick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoremore Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Tperk said: That's true, but it seems like alot of our FRPs seem to come outta left field when they are announced. Yes absolutely. Even Alexander he wasn't talked about much before he was picked either. Packers have a special knack for that. So try to find the 1st round prospects no one is talking about and maybe you'll have a chance. Say a guy like Bryan Bresee. They'll probably do it again. I have given up trying to guess who the Packers are going to select. Gute he's a complicated fella...ha ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoremore Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Smidgeon said: Bulaga. The only consensus obvious pick. Yah never thought he would fall to us. Top player at position of need that one was a slam dunk. Most everyone had us taking Hawk as well. That was many years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted April 8, 2023 Share Posted April 8, 2023 2 hours ago, HokieHigh said: i would apply this to TE as well I would definitely reduce the yardage expected from a TE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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