Aaron Rodgers contract - An analysis

[FAH1223]

The minute that 12 signed that contract, he sealed himself retiring in G&G. 

But I don't think he's retiring in 2023 after a terrible 2022 season for the team.

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by FAH1223

[Sandy]

22 minutes ago, Packer_ESP said:

Absolutely, but I don’t think any team will give multiple firsts like some were speculating. 60M for one year is already a tough pill to swallow with the uncertainty around his performance, imho that severely limits the compensation we can get in a trade.

Agreed that it won't be multiple firsts or anything crazy. I do think we'll get a couple really good offers though.

Once a team acquires him and activates the option, his cap hit for them this season will be $13.31m. They'll be flush with cap space to fill any remaining holes they have. I can picture a small handful of teams offering a meaningful package that gets us out of the Rodgers cap mess forever.

[Packer_ESP]

12 minutes ago, Sandy said:

Once a team acquires him and activates the option, his cap hit for them this season will be $13.31m

It's 15.7m, see point 5.1 in the original post. Also need to consider the 44M in dead cap you are creating for the next years, though teams seem to be increasingly reckless with this kind of stuff. I agree it's not out of the realm of possibility though, and at this point is probably the best option for all parties involved. I doubt Aaron wants to retire and I doubt we want to keep him with all the added dead cap for future years (at least I don't).

[VonKarman]

19 hours ago, pgwingman said:

Yeah I'm torn on this. Andrew Brandt has been insisting that this contract is "one year, and then we'll see" for the Packers, but I just don't see it. When I look at it, it looks like we gave up control and paid a huge price for the privilege of doing so. 

Yes. If there's one thing that we know is that Rodgers problems disappeared the moment we guaranteed him an absurd amount of money. He also signed his extension with Gute despite all his problemas with the roster construction and his lack of input in the process.

He's not saying no to 60M guaranteed.

[Mr Anonymous]

18 hours ago, 15412 said:

Murph and Gute were beyond stupid for not trading Ol Rodg when he was pouting. 

Do you think they were in total agreement on this? Let's just say that if the GM were Wolf or Thompson and the team President was Bob Harlan, the result would have been different. I'll make it even easier for you. If the GM were Gute and the President was Harlan, the result would have been different.

 

5 hours ago, FAH1223 said:

The minute that 12 signed that contract, he sealed himself retiring in G&G.

 

Which is exactly what Rodgers wanted all along. He was dead set on this outcome the moment Love was drafted. Rodgers was going to do everything he could to outlast him. Played Murphy like a fiddle and got his way. Did what Favre was unable to do - get chosen over his planned successor.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Mr Anonymous

[minnypackerfan]

1 hour ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Do you think they were in total agreement on this? Let's just say that if the GM were Wolf or Thompson and the team President was Bob Harlan, the result would have been different. I'll make it even easier for you. If the GM were Gute and the President was Harlan, the result would have been different.

 

Which is exactly what Rodgers wanted all along. He was dead set on this outcome the moment Love was drafted. Rodgers was going to do everything he could to outlast him. Played Murphy like a fiddle and got his way. Did what Favre was unable to do - get chosen over his planned successor.

My feelings on this situation all along has been that this effort to keep Rodgers at any cost was on Murphy.  LeFleur wanted to keep him because he was the better quarterback.  Gute probably was in the middle.....ok keeping Rodgers or moving on to Love, his first round draft pick and getting the enormous amounts of draft capital that trading Rodgers would give us.  Murphy was probably concerned most about the fan and media reaction to trading an MVP.  The press would spin this as a Packer's (and of course his) organizational failure and he didn't want his or the Packer's brand tarnished.  In the end, with the way Murphy set up the organization system with Ball, LeFleur, and Gute all reporting to himself, Murphy made what he thought was the best decision for the franchise.  Harlan would have stayed out of this and would have told the press "talk to the GM".  Of course the minions all had to support Murphy's decision (because that's the way big company's work....birds on a wire approach).  The axe should fall squarely on Murphy for this and secondarily on Gute.   

[Sandy]

7 hours ago, Packer_ESP said:

It's 15.7m, see point 5.1 in the original post. Also need to consider the 44M in dead cap you are creating for the next years, though teams seem to be increasingly reckless with this kind of stuff. I agree it's not out of the realm of possibility though, and at this point is probably the best option for all parties involved. I doubt Aaron wants to retire and I doubt we want to keep him with all the added dead cap for future years (at least I don't).

But wouldn't the $58.3 be divided by 5, plus the base salary and workout bonus? I did my own math so I could be off but I figured it would be a little less.

Either way, I think if the receiving team felt he was the missing link to a SB, then I think they do it in this modern NFL.

[pgwingman]

Does anyone have the complete contract history of Rodgers? Spotrac hides them behind a premium subscription.

[15412]

2 hours ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Do you think they were in total agreement on this? Let's just say that if the GM were Wolf or Thompson and the team President was Bob Harlan, the result would have been different. I'll make it even easier for you. If the GM were Gute and the President was Harlan, the result would have been different.

 

Which is exactly what Rodgers wanted all along. He was dead set on this outcome the moment Love was drafted. Rodgers was going to do everything he could to outlast him. Played Murphy like a fiddle and got his way. Did what Favre was unable to do - get chosen over his planned successor.

You do not know that.  It is entirely possible it was Murph who wanted to keep him and Gute trade him, or vice versa.  It is also possible they both believed he should retire here.  Frenchy was clearly on board with keeping him, although his was only an opinion they maybe didn't give any weight to.  My wonder is how much involvement did the board have, did they even converse with Murph about their opinion...

[Packer_ESP]

37 minutes ago, Sandy said:

But wouldn't the $58.3 be divided by 5, plus the base salary and workout bonus?

You only have 4 years remaining on the contract so the 58.3m bonus is divided by 4, that's why your number is lower. But yeah the logic is as you say.

[15412]

8 hours ago, FAH1223 said:

The minute that 12 signed that contract, he sealed himself retiring in G&G. 

But I don't think he's retiring in 2023 after a terrible 2022 season for the team.

 

You likely are right but I hope you're wrong.   Rodg doesn't have a no trade clause in the contract, but he has a no trade clause.  He was given all the leverage.  Now if suddenly a team feels they have a short window and an urgent need for a QB we may get lucky enough to get him to agree to such a trade.  Without a long term upcoming injury limited teams in that potential position though.  Urgent short window for the team, desire to play there for Rodg.

[StatKing]

49 minutes ago, 15412 said:

You do not know that.  It is entirely possible it was Murph who wanted to keep him and Gute trade him, or vice versa.  It is also possible they both believed he should retire here.  Frenchy was clearly on board with keeping him, although his was only an opinion they maybe didn't give any weight to.  My wonder is how much involvement did the board have, did they even converse with Murph about their opinion...

Gute had no choice but to resign him. Everyone is missing the main reason Gute gave Rodgers the farm. Two words, job security. Teams don't willingly put themselves in QB purgatory when they have other options. Gute wants to be here for the next decade plus not the next 2-3 years.

[pgwingman]

1 minute ago, StatKing said:

Gute had no choice but to resign him. Everyone is missing the main reason Gute gave Rodgers the farm. Two words, job security. Teams don't willingly put themselves in QB purgatory when they have other options. Gute wants to be here for the next decade plus not the next 2-3 years.

Yeah, this. Can you imagine the uproar we'd have if we had our record while Rodgers was leading some other team to the playoffs. There'd literally be torches and pitchforks outside of Lambeau

[15412]

18 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

Yeah, this. Can you imagine the uproar we'd have if we had our record while Rodgers was leading some other team to the playoffs. There'd literally be torches and pitchforks outside of Lambeau

If a GM is acting because he is worried about his tail while bowing to the fans he is pathetic and needs to be canned.

If this would have been the case, the fans should be storming with bigger torches now.  Burying ourselves in this old regressing QB with what results?

Murph and Gute would have first had to pitch the idea of trading Ol Rodg for a kings ransom to the board, covering themselves upfront there as to WHY they would make such a move.  Then you do what's right for the team, with the short term unknown but the long term insured.  Fans don't and shouldn't get a vote.  In this case the short term has sucked.  The long term is going to continue to get difficult unless they can find a way to remove themselves from the present situation.  Or at least lessen the load.

[OneTwoSixFive]

Falling on your sword for just one year of cap decimation is just not the way GMs think (unless that year is not this year). While they can plan for several years ahead, the year they are really focused on is the current year, because all NFL teams tend to operate on a "What have you done for me lately" attitude.

As for the trade him for what you can get supporters, That contract coupled with his play this year, means he may well be untradeable, never mind how low the compensation that is asked for.

For those of us (me included) that say he should have been traded early this year, yes, it seems now like it would have been the best option by far.............but that boat has sailed long ago. All that's left is to say "told you so", which is both blindingly obvious at this time and little comfort to anyone.

We just have to wait and see the train wreck happen in slow motion, - but is that train wreck just the front carriage derailed, or will it be the whole train crashing off a bridge into a river.

 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by OneTwoSixFive