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Aaron Rodgers contract - An analysis


Packer_ESP

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You can live with that contract if he is playing at an elite level.

For him to play at an elite level, he needs his footspeed and he needs his core strength.

He needs the footspeed to play under center to make the timing work for run and pass.

Clearly this year he did not train like he had the few prior years.

So....if GB is moving forward with him, they pretty much need a commitment from him to train harder in the off-season.

Cuz...old guys with multiple MVP's and a Super Bowl victory, who aren't named Brady, love to train hard in the off-season.

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7 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

If Love is a bust then I don't want Gute selecting our next QB.  He apparently though highly of Kizer and he was awful.  

Thought highly.  Or thought it was a nice buy-low candidate?  I mean, the player we traded him for is out of the league as well.

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41 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Thought highly.  Or thought it was a nice buy-low candidate?  I mean, the player we traded him for is out of the league as well.

Think he meant thought highly of him when he was drafted or at least that's how I took it. 

Maybe Gute is a bad judge of talent on QBs, we don't really know. 

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1 hour ago, Mdpackfan22 said:

Agree to eat portion of contract for more draft capital of trading team. Rodgers at 20m/yr should be worth atleast a 1st. We're not contending with or without Rodgers in 2023 and 2024

other teams would need to look at Rodgers 2020-2021 season vs 2022.  player on the decline that is contemplating retirement might not fetch that compensation

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I feel like OP posted some interesting things about the Rodgers contract and then everyone went hurr durr get rid of him or hurr durr let's keep him.

 

The decision point is oddly enough the start of the 2023 REGULAR Season.  Not the league year.  So it gives GB a chance to deal him pre/post/during the draft or late into TC if needed

 

"Rodgers currently has a salary cap charge of $31.6 million in 2023. $59.465 million of his $59.515 million salary for the year is already guaranteed. The Packers have the option to pay that salary out as a $58.3 million option bonus and a $1.165 million salary in order to drive his cap charge to the $31.6 million figure. The timing of the option works in the Packers favor for both trades and/or potential retirement as the official option decision does not have to happen until the start of the 2023 regular season."

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2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I feel like OP posted some interesting things about the Rodgers contract and then everyone went hurr durr get rid of him or hurr durr let's keep him.

 

The decision point is oddly enough the start of the 2023 REGULAR Season.  Not the league year.  So it gives GB a chance to deal him pre/post/during the draft or late into TC if needed

 

"Rodgers currently has a salary cap charge of $31.6 million in 2023. $59.465 million of his $59.515 million salary for the year is already guaranteed. The Packers have the option to pay that salary out as a $58.3 million option bonus and a $1.165 million salary in order to drive his cap charge to the $31.6 million figure. The timing of the option works in the Packers favor for both trades and/or potential retirement as the official option decision does not have to happen until the start of the 2023 regular season."

Rodgers said last off season (or some time in the last few years) that he didn't really want to be part of a rebuild.  maybe there is a path to GB and Rodgers coming to an agreement that GB is more headed to a rebuild in the next few years.  Rodgers got to play 17 years in GB, longer than Starr and Favre with 16 each.  

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2 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Rodgers said last off season (or some time in the last few years) that he didn't really want to be part of a rebuild.  maybe there is a path to GB and Rodgers coming to an agreement that GB is more headed to a rebuild in the next few years.  Rodgers got to play 17 years in GB, longer than Starr and Favre with 16 each.  

I really don't think so, but I don't think it will be Rodgers who stops them.  Gute and MLF can't afford to rebuild after a failed season, career wise.  The rebuild will only happen once they are both gone.

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18 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I really don't think so, but I don't think it will be Rodgers who stops them.  Gute and MLF can't afford to rebuild after a failed season, career wise.  The rebuild will only happen once they are both gone.

I think this offseason is a big discussion on the next 3-4 years of the franchise and how GB is going to proceed.  

  1. Rebuild and take the lumps for 2023 and likely 2024.  Gutekunst and MLF probably want some reassurance from Murphy that going that route is OK and that they would have the support to see it through for at least 2-3 years
  2. push forward and move more cap space into 2024 to try to add pieces to the roster that are needed to fill the holes.   
    1. Jenkins and the OL need to be solidified.  Whether that is with the young players or a veteran is TBD.
    2. EDGE with Gary likely being out for part of the 2023 season and unknown how he will be after the ACL injury/rehab
    3. safety position needs an upgrade on Savage and Amos is a FA
    4. DL is back to Clark and a bunch of unknowns in Wyatt, Slaton and Ford
    5. WR is a bunch of 2nd year players 

certainly having high picks can help fill those holes, but then GB is back to relying on young players to fill holes and step in and play at a high enough level for a playoff contending push... like 2022 all over again

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16 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I think this offseason is a big discussion on the next 3-4 years of the franchise and how GB is going to proceed.  

  1. Rebuild and take the lumps for 2023 and likely 2024.  Gutekunst and MLF probably want some reassurance from Murphy that going that route is OK and that they would have the support to see it through for at least 2-3 years
  2. push forward and move more cap space into 2024 to try to add pieces to the roster that are needed to fill the holes.   
    1. Jenkins and the OL need to be solidified.  Whether that is with the young players or a veteran is TBD.
    2. EDGE with Gary likely being out for part of the 2023 season and unknown how he will be after the ACL injury/rehab
    3. safety position needs an upgrade on Savage and Amos is a FA
    4. DL is back to Clark and a bunch of unknowns in Wyatt, Slaton and Ford
    5. WR is a bunch of 2nd year players 

certainly having high picks can help fill those holes, but then GB is back to relying on young players to fill holes and step in and play at a high enough level for a playoff contending push... like 2022 all over again

Yeah… as much as I think Rodgers is capable of surprising everyone next year, I just see too many other issues. I don’t know how they try and patch it together to run it back yet again. They’ve done that before and now we’re here. It might be time to just rip the bandaid off.

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14 hours ago, Packer_ESP said:

) What happens if Rodgers retires?

If Rodgers retires the Packers would be on the hook for all the "past money" (signing bonus money that hasn't been accounted for yet), which is $40,313,570. They could choose to have that impact entirely in the 2023 cap or keeping him rostered till June to split the hit: $15,833,570 in 2023 and $24,480,000 in 2024.

Definitely should take the hit at once

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Trading Rodgers is very possible this offseason. Not sure where they got their numbers, but we would not execute Rodgers's option on day 1 of the league year.

By my estimations we would need to clear about $40m in cap before the league year starts in order to fit his full salary under the cap before trading him. Easiest way to do that is restructures for Clark, Jaire, Preston, Bakh and Jones.

The team that trades for him would have to have $59m saved up before acquiring him. Several teams could do this with ease. Then they would activate his option, reduce his cap hit and have space to bring in a bunch of stars like the Broncos did with Peyton and the Bucs did with Brady.

There is a very realistic third door aside from retirement or playing in GB.

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1 hour ago, Sandy said:

The team that trades for him would have to have $59m saved up before acquiring him. Several teams could do this with ease. Then they would activate his option, reduce his cap hit and have space to bring in a bunch of stars like the Broncos did with Peyton and the Bucs did with Brady.

There is a very realistic third door aside from retirement or playing in GB.

Absolutely, but I don’t think any team will give multiple firsts like some were speculating. 60M for one year is already a tough pill to swallow with the uncertainty around his performance, imho that severely limits the compensation we can get in a trade.

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