Week 16: San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders

[NFL Network]

17 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

Lance has made EVERY throw that Purdy has made thus far. The tape is there. 

Even the post route to Kittle. Lance made a simlar throw against the Texans I believe. 

It's the processing and understanding where to go with the ball pre-snap where Lance is behind. Purdy's able to play on-schedule and in rhythm. That's where Lance really lags behind at the moment.

But that should be expected.

Purdy played fours years of P5 football. Even as a rookie, he's more advanced from the pocket and has seen more from a defensive standpoint than Lance. He's been put in more adverse/high stakes situations so his response isn't all that surprising to me. His football IQ is better than I expected and even surpasses Jimmy. But if you watched him college, you could see the intangibles were there. That's why I said initially I didn't see a big dropoff from him, compared to Jimmy. 

 

That's the whole point as I'll take a smarter QB over the one who relies on shear mobility. Come training camp they have to have a battle b/t Purdy & Lance to see who gets the starting job. If the Niners had a QB who made the offense a high scoring unit every week then I think they would be able to win the SB this year but I've seen many Niners seasons like that since 1994.

[Forge]

12 minutes ago, NFL Network said:

That's the thing I've only seen 4 games of Lance starting lol! And during those 4 games I saw a QB who struggled to throw and he also had many over throws early in the Bears game and the offense was completely stagnant for the most part.

Pretty much what I thought

[NFL Network]

Just now, Forge said:

Pretty much what I thought

If Lance is the starting QB next year and the offense is scoring TD's at the same pace as the Steve Young led Niners then I have no problem with Lance being the starter. But too often than not the Niners have had teams held back by subpar offensive scoring that is related to the QB position. This is the year that a QB that puts points on the board could very well bring the Niners home the trophy and lets home the same is true for 2023 regardless who the starting QB is.

[JIllg]

30 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

Lance has made EVERY throw that Purdy has made thus far. The tape is there. 

Even the post route to Kittle. Lance made a simlar throw against the Texans I believe. 

It's the processing and understanding where to go with the ball pre-snap where Lance is behind. Purdy's able to play on-schedule and in rhythm. That's where Lance really lags behind at the moment.

But that should be expected.

Purdy played fours years of P5 football. Even as a rookie, he's more advanced from the pocket and has seen more from a defensive standpoint than Lance. He's been put in more adverse/high stakes situations so his response isn't all that surprising to me. His football IQ is better than I expected and even surpasses Jimmy. But if you watched him college, you could see the intangibles were there. That's why I said initially I didn't see a big dropoff from him, compared to Jimmy. 

 

Purdy also started three years of high school in a pass first system. He’s just had a huge amount more reps than Lance has. And Lance may very well never internalize the lessons that those reps provide. Rhythm, timing. Even confidence. Lance always seemed a touch unsure and trying too hard to please from my vantage point incredibly far away. But it will be interesting to see what Lance is like as he gains more experience.

[Forge]

38 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

Lance has made EVERY throw that Purdy has made thus far. The tape is there. 

Even the post route to Kittle. Lance made a simlar throw against the Texans I believe. 

It's the processing and understanding where to go with the ball pre-snap where Lance is behind. Purdy's able to play on-schedule and in rhythm. That's where Lance really lags behind at the moment.

But that should be expected.

Purdy played fours years of P5 football. Even as a rookie, he's more advanced from the pocket and has seen more from a defensive standpoint than Lance. He's been put in more adverse/high stakes situations so his response isn't all that surprising to me. His football IQ is better than I expected and even surpasses Jimmy. But if you watched him college, you could see the intangibles were there. That's why I said initially I didn't see a big dropoff from him, compared to Jimmy. 

 

Great post. 

Definitely things that Purdy does better than Lance right now. His anticipation in passing routes is waaaaaaaay ahead of Lance. Obviously his accuracy is better, Lance just isn't consistently accurate, which may or may not come with time

The experience gap is very clear. Lance is super choppy. His short game work needs to get better for sure - that would help out a lot. 

Lance actually has good pocket awareness for the most part (better sack to pressure rate than both Jimmy and Purdy), but he struggles when throwing the ball in the face of pressure. That's something that ebbs and flows with time - very few QBs can keep that up (one of the biggest things in Purdy's performance so far that is primed for regression at some point) 

[NFL Network]

18 minutes ago, Forge said:

Great post. 

Definitely things that Purdy does better than Lance right now. His anticipation in passing routes is waaaaaaaay ahead of Lance. Obviously his accuracy is better, Lance just isn't consistently accurate, which may or may not come with time

The experience gap is very clear. Lance is super choppy. His short game work needs to get better for sure - that would help out a lot. 

Lance actually has good pocket awareness for the most part (better sack to pressure rate than both Jimmy and Purdy), but he struggles when throwing the ball in the face of pressure. That's something that ebbs and flows with time - very few QBs can keep that up (one of the biggest things in Purdy's performance so far that is primed for regression at some point) 

Accuracy is a huge point as the lack of accuracy is what cost the Niners points in Lances loss to the Bears. If Lance is just going to be a Lamar Jackson type of QB then I'll take Purdy over him b/c of the accuracy factor.

[adamq]

32 minutes ago, NFL Network said:

If the Niners had a QB who made the offense a high scoring unit every week then I think they would be able to win the SB

The Purdmeister has scored 31.5 ppg 

 

[Forge]

3 minutes ago, adamq said:

The Purdmeister has scored 31.5 ppg 

I'd technically put it at 29.75 - there was a defensive td in there which I wouldn't include. 

[Forge]

14 minutes ago, NFL Network said:

Accuracy is a huge point as the lack of accuracy is what cost the Niners points in Lances loss to the Bears. If Lance is just going to be a Lamar Jackson type of QB then I'll take Purdy over him b/c of the accuracy factor.

It mostly depends on how inaccurate he is. If he's 54%, that's a problem and it's probably not going to work. 

if he's 63%, you can have Purdy. I'll take Lance. Lance hitting 63% + the run game + more versatile offense is going to be really good. But he does have to his a certain threshold for all of the assets he brings to the table to override the random pass he leaves on the table. Accuracy isn't the end all be all, otherwise keep Jimmy, trade for Derek Carr, bring in Kirk Cousins (or perhaps roll with Brock, but again, this is a limited sample and I wouldn't invest super heavily in it quite yet) 

Its also important to note that we have yet to see Purdy in all situations and elements, and that's important. 

[NFL Network]

12 minutes ago, adamq said:

The Purdmeister has scored 31.5 ppg 

 

Correct and if the Niners offense averaged those numbers across an entire regular season & playoffs they'd win the SB for sure. I haven't seen such a high scoring Niners team in a long time as it's hard getting used to lol!

[757-NINER]

3 hours ago, NFL Network said:

Accuracy is a huge point as the lack of accuracy is what cost the Niners points in Lances loss to the Bears. If Lance is just going to be a Lamar Jackson type of QB then I'll take Purdy over him b/c of the accuracy factor.

But let's also recognize that the offense played in a monsoon Week 1. 

Also, the offense was no where in sync that early in the season.  It even took Jimmy three games for the offense to really get in gear and he's been in this system for 5 years 

And ppl are really underestimating the effect CMC has had for the QBs. There are reads and easy completions that were not there before he came. His presence as a receiver has really allowed the QBs one of the most effective safety blankets/checkdown options in the league. That allows for the offense to be in alot of 2nd/3rd short scenarios or just easy pitch and catch scenarios to to move the sticks.

It all matters and plays a factor in how efficiently and effectively you perform at QB 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by 757-NINER

[JIllg]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

It mostly depends on how inaccurate he is. If he's 54%, that's a problem and it's probably not going to work. 

if he's 63%, you can have Purdy. I'll take Lance. Lance hitting 63% + the run game + more versatile offense is going to be really good. But he does have to his a certain threshold for all of the assets he brings to the table to override the random pass he leaves on the table. Accuracy isn't the end all be all, otherwise keep Jimmy, trade for Derek Carr, bring in Kirk Cousins. 

Its also important to note that we have yet to see Purdy in all situations and elements, and that's important. 

63% is right about at the Josh Allen expectation line. I could see a style argument for Purdy over theoretical Lance at that point if Purdy keeps playing like he did against Washington and Tampa - the accuracy is a good fit for our YAC weapons and he hit the open shots down the field that Jimmy doesn’t take often enough. Purdy was legit a plus quarterback in those games by my eye. It’s a great problem to theoretically have, lol.

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, NFL Network said:

Correct and if the Niners offense averaged those numbers across an entire regular season & playoffs they'd win the SB for sure. I haven't seen such a high scoring Niners team in a long time as it's hard getting used to lol!

Jimmy G averaged 30 in 2019 with worse weapons. 

We did not win the super bowl 

[Forge]

Just now, JIllg said:

63% is right about at the Josh Allen expectation line. I could see a style argument for Purdy over theoretical Lance at that point if Purdy keeps playing like he did against Washington and Tampa - the accuracy is a good fit for our YAC weapons and he hit the open shots down the field that Jimmy doesn’t take often enough. Purdy was legit a plus quarterback in those games by my eye. It’s a great problem to theoretically have, lol.

I'll be looking forward to seeing Purdy in January in Philly. That's a big test. 

[NFL Network]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

Jimmy G averaged 30 in 2019 with worse weapons. 

We did not win the super bowl 

Yes I remember but that average was inflated due to some games where the Niners scored alot of points and they also got some of those points from non offensive TD's. And by the time the playoffs rolled around they couldn't trust Jimmy to throw the ball and it caught up to them in the SB.