packfanfb Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Typically not a huge fan of pre-combine mocks simply because so many things change with players' draft stock, etc., but I was bored so here would be my plan for 2023: Offseason Cap Moves: Not putting too much into this. Ingalls gave a good cap breakdown on how the Packers would create cap space while also trading Rodgers before the draft, so let's just assume some combination of these moves (Jones already happened). Personally, I would try to avoid the Bak restructure as much as possible if the Packers believe this could be his last year in GB. I would restructure Clark and Jaire and try to extend Gary this off-season. Pre-Draft Trades Trade Aaron Rodgers to Raiders --> Packers receive No. 7 pick in 2023 draft and conditional 2nd round pick in 2024 (can become 1st round pick if Rodgers hits certain marks in 2023 and is a Raider in 2024). Packers eat the entire dead cap for Rodgers in 2023. Trade Darnell Savage to "Insert Team" --> This is a salary dump move by Green Bay. Savage fell out of favor last season and he's not worth $8m this year and we need the money, especially if we want to avoid a Bak restructure. Find a team who is willing to take a chance on him being a future piece --> As part of trade, GB also gives up 5th round pick in 2023 and gets back 6th round pick in 2023. Pre-Draft Extension Adrian Amos - in addition working on a Gary extension this off-season, I would probably try to extend Amos before the voided contract deadline on February 25. The main reason for this decision: If not extended, Amos will be a FA and would count for almost $8m against the cap this season (voided contract). Amos' play started to dip last season, however, given how thin we currently are at safety, I would look to extend/resign Amos for a 2-year deal, probably around $5-6m/year. This move would actually save us money in 2023 and allow us to keep a veteran safety to off-set the Savage loss. Pre-Draft Free Agency Good-bye to the following: Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan, Lewis, Crosby, Lowry - thanks but really not remotely interested in bringing back any of these guys. Packers resign the following: Nijman - 2nd round tender (already addressed in Ingalls' tweet) Rudy Ford - he comes back cheap to compete for a starting job. Shouldn't cost more than the Vet Min - $1m range. Jarran Reed - Packers need to adopt the Eagles' blueprint and load up on the OL and DL. Reed flashed at times last year and has some "dawg" in him that I do not want to lose. Shouldn't cost more than $2-3m, similar to last season. Eric Wilson - very underrated ST player for us last year. Also, decent depth player at ILB. Keisean Nixon - this one is tougher because I have no idea what his market will be. I get that he was a dynamic return guy last season and I'd love to have him back, but I'm not paying a premium for him. I'd be willing to double his $965,000 deal last season, but not much more than that. Other cheap FAs who get consideration: Hollins (decent EDGE depth last year); Ballentine (decent ST player); Leavitt (Bisaccia's guy). RFAs who don't get a tender: Barnes (we have enough depth at ILB); Tyler Davis (no thanks) ERFA: Hanson (sure I guess) Pre-Draft Outside FA Moves Hayden Hurst (TE) - 2 years, $9.5m There isn't a ton of difference between Tonyan and Hurst in terms of overall production or the type of player, however, I'm just not convinced Tonyan is the same player pre-ACL. He looked slower than dirt in 2022 and had a very difficult time creating separation in the passing game. I want Love to get a veteran TE because I think he'll use the MOF better than Rodgers and Hurst is a smart player who can be a reliable chain-moving TE. He also won't break the bank. Marvin Jones (WR) - 1 year, $3.5m (up to/void year) I expect the Packers to mostly go young at WR (Watson, Doubs, Toure, Rookie), especially after moving on from Rodgers, but Gute will likely still want one veteran in that WR room and Jones would be a perfect fit, while not costing much because he's getting up there in age. Still an excellent contested-catch guy. 2023 Draft Round 1 Pick No. 7 --> Packers are in great position with Atlanta and Carolina having picks 8 and 9. Both teams could be fighting over a QB still on the board (maybe Richardson). We strike a deal with Carolina. Carolina gets Pick 7, Packers get Pick 9 and Pick 39. Pick No. 9 --> Peter Skoronski (OT) - Northwestern Gute just needs to keep it simple here. Again, follow the Eagles' blueprint and build up your OL and DL. The Packers have two of the best on the left side with Bak and Jenkins but the right side of our line is weaker than most of us want to believe. Even though I want to bring Nijman back for insurance at OT, Skoronski is a plug-n-play player. If he had longer arms, he would probably be a top-5 pick and some teams could view him as a guard, but GB has drafted shorter-arm OTs before (Bulaga) and done just fine. Bonus fact: Skoronski is the grandson of Bob Skoronski, the former Packer SB champ OT. I love this move because it gives us flexibility on the OL and potentially allows GB to let Zach Tom compete with Myers for the center position and Myers with Runyan for RG. Moreover, if Bak leaves after this season, drafting Skoronski gives you future stability at OT. Pick No. 15 --> Keion White (EDGE/DL) - Georgia Tech Packers attack the DL/EDGE at pick 15 and go with White. He fits that "big" EDGE frame we typically covet (6'5" 275 lbs) and has that Z-ability to play both inside and out. Had a good Senior Bowl, which is always something GB tends to like as well. White is a guy whose draft stock could dramatically change after the combine. If he moves really well, he could vault ahead of guys like Wilson/Murphy. If not, he could be a late 1, early 2 guy. Pick No. 39 --> Jalen Hyatt (WR) - Tennessee Round 2 is Jordan Love Day. To start, the Packers nab someone who you know Gute is going to love after they see his combine workout, Jalen Hyatt. Frankly, if Hyatt blows the doors off his workout, he could get into the 1st round, but I think early 2nd is about right for him. Remember all the talk about the Packers getting Will Fuller a few years ago. Hyatt is basically the spawn of Desean Jackson and Will Fuller with speed for days. He adds more speed to the offense and allows the Packers to continue to develop Watson as more of an all-around X receiver while him and Hyatt take turns taking the top off the defense. Pick No. 45 --> Darnell Washington (TE) - Georgia I said it was Jordan Love Day, and Gute follows up the Hyatt pick with Washington. We know Gute loves big guys who can move, on both sides of the ball and after missing out on Jelani Woods, Gute doesn't pass on Washington who replaces Lewis as your "mammoth" in-line TE while also adding more juice to the passing game. Together with Hurst and Deguara as the lone holdover, the Packers complete their revamp of the TE position. Pick No. 78 --> Ji'Ayir Brown (S) - Penn State Jaquan Brisker was high on my list for the Packers last year and Brown is his counterpart this year. Even though the Packers (in this mock) decide to bring back Amos for at least another season, they need to add depth and youth to the safety position. I picked Brown over a few other guys because I think he's more physical and we need that on the back-end of this defense, which has featured a lot of poor tackling over the last few years. Pick No. 116 --> Tyjae Spears (RB) - Tulane Meet your Aaron Jones replacement for next season. Spears had a solid Senior Bowl and could be a Day 2 guy but it's a pretty loaded RB class this year so he might be there in early Day 3. Has similar traits to Jones, which will compliment Dillon once Jones moves on, likely next season. Pick No. 150 - Viliami Fehoko (EDGE) - SJSU Packers keep adding to the DL/EDGE with Fehoko in the 5th round. Like Enagbare last year, Fehoko isn't an athletic freak, but he's just a mean player with a high, relentless motor and pretty good set of pass rush skills. Pick No. 171 - Traded in Savage deal. Packers have one pick in the 6th round (from Savage trade) and several in the 7th, but frankly, I have not gotten into the draft enough yet to know much about the late Day-3 prospects so not going past the 5th round. I do think the Packers draft both a QB and a Kicker at some point on Day 3. Post Draft FA Moves At some point, the Packers will likely need to add a veteran QB to back-up Love, but I think they wait until after the draft (post-draft cuts, etc.) and bring someone in after that. I don't see the Packers wasting a lot of cap dollars on a pre-draft FA QB. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Only going to comment on a few parts. 57 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Trade Aaron Rodgers to Raiders --> Packers receive No. 7 pick in 2023 draft and conditional 2nd round pick in 2024 (can become 1st round pick if Rodgers hits certain marks in 2023 and is a Raider in 2024). Packers eat the entire dead cap for Rodgers in 2023. I'd be skeptical of Rodgers hitting that kind of trade package. It's either going to take less in terms of present value or more in terms of future value. If you're getting the #7 pick this year, I'm doubtful that the Raiders are going to hand over a SRP that can turn into a FRP. Feels more like a 3rd that can turn into a SRP based on some qualifiers. Quite frankly, I'd be looking for a pick swap this year and pretty much a guaranteed FRP in 2024 if we're being honest. The pick swap gets you up the board in case either Jalen Carter or Will Anderson fall down the board (<1% chance), and allows you to move back down the board and get extra value out of the pick. So you're essentially trading #15 for another mid FRP plus a SRP. You could effectively turn Rodgers and 15 into something like 16, 47, and the Raiders' FRP in 2024. Plus whatever else you can get the Raiders to add in. 1 hour ago, packfanfb said: Pick No. 7 --> Packers are in great position with Atlanta and Carolina having picks 8 and 9. Both teams could be fighting over a QB still on the board (maybe Richardson). We strike a deal with Carolina. Carolina gets Pick 7, Packers get Pick 9 and Pick 39. That's a HUGE premium (that's nearly 3x the difference) to move up just 2 slots. That trade package doesn't seem very realistic. No reason to believe that the Panthers couldn't make that same deal with either Seattle or Detroit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodestar Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Not sure how realistic it is but I would cream my pants if this was our offseason 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaximusGluteus Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Skoronski is the most overrated player in this draft. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toddfather Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just want to take a second and say I appreciate when you guys put your time and energy into these mocks. I'm not big in the college game so its fun to learn the directions you guys see us going. Realistic or not keep them coming! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 (edited) I like so much about this, especially getting Jalen Wyatt. He's one of my favorites in the draft. Edited February 18, 2023 by Old Guy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
15412 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Not sure about the return for the old man but any draft that starts with us moving him is a plus. As far as the draft, love it. As far as the teams future, the wheels are in motion to recover from cap foolishness and get the team back on the track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Sadly, I don't think Rodgers nets as much as many think he will. Also, The return from the trade from 7-9 also seems like wishful thinking (which to be fair, you may be aiming at a draft like that). Finally, WR Jalen Hyatt looks like a rather skinny guy who has tried to rock up and reminds me of that skinny receiver from a draft a few years back who could run a 4.22, but pulled up in the combine, with a tight hammy after one run - he was just too tightly wound, too injury prone (I believe that was John Ross in the 2017 draft). I'm sure Hyatt has ability - but as someone once said, the best ability is availability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, CWood21 said: That's a HUGE premium (that's nearly 3x the difference) to move up just 2 slots. That trade package doesn't seem very realistic. No reason to believe that the Panthers couldn't make that same deal with either Seattle or Detroit. Fair, but I went with the thought that teams tend to go crazy and overpay when you're talking about getting a QB in the top 10. The thought is maybe Gute could fleece Carolina if they really wanted to jump ATL. Carolina could always do the same thing instead with Det too as stated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brit Pack Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Loved it, top to bottom. Think the restructures and the players signed are spot on! Like the positions you went after in the draft too! I think this could go down. I'd question keeping Nijman if we go OT early. Ooohhh who is going to be our kicker...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, Brit Pack said: Loved it, top to bottom. Think the restructures and the players signed are spot on! Like the positions you went after in the draft too! I think this could go down. I'd question keeping Nijman if we go OT early. Ooohhh who is going to be our kicker...? Chad Rylan who we will sign as a free agent. He's from Maryland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Big fan of a lot of these moves. Good use of limited cap. Hurst is tops on my FA wishlist. Jones Jr is a chains mover that could fit into the offense well. I do like Skoronski but not in the top 10 - although I could see him starting at RG for 12 years and making a few All-Pro teams, which would be worth it. And you're right, he could stick at RT. I'm also on the Hyatt bandwagon and hope Gute looks past him being a little smaller than our typical size thresholds. Spears is another favorite of mine. I haven't looked into White much yet, but you've sold me on him! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I really appreciate it when people do mocks that actually attempt the reconcile the cap situation. A lot of the mocks I've read thus far just hand wave it away. If I could make one tiny request, I'd request a running tally of cap space available after each move. If you don't restructure Bakh, do you have enough cap space to sign the Hurst and Jones? The rough math works though and I think you hit on the exact level of free agency we'll be involved in. I like the idea of trading Savage as a salary dump, I'll be interested to see if Gute pulls that lever. If I'm team X, I'm valuing Savage as borderline starting safety worth $3M that I'm paying $8M. So the question becomes, what is that $5M worth in draft picks? I'd say 3rd round value, so a good bit more than you originally project. The Amos move I'm curious about. I understand why you did what you did. You save money this year with an extension, but do you really want him on the roster this year? It looks like he's really lost a step and is turning 30. That's tough to get excited about. But on the other hand, if you're trading Savage you'd want some experience in the Safety room and it's still a good way to save some dough. On to the draft. I'm a little torn on Skoronski. Like you mentioned, lots see him as a guard already. The 5 starters on the line are basically set already, and Tom is pretty versatile as the next man up at either C or OT. So Skoronski might be an upgrade at RG, which doesn't feel like a great impact for a top 10 pick. But on the other hand, Bakh is one injury away retirement, Nijman is below average and heading into a contract year, and JRJ is a free agent next offseason. So investing into the Oline is hard to criticize. I like the Keion White pick, but as you said maybe could trade down from 15 and get him in the late 20s instead. I like Round 2 picks, But Washington might need to be selected before Hyatt before it's all said and done. Someone's going to love his size and speed and fall in love with him, but his blocking skills would probably put him at the top of Gute's list. The rest of the way down is full of common sense picks at positions of need. Spears as a replacement for Jones is interesting. As much as I love Jones, I still think his contract value will be the hardest to live up to, given his age and position. Overall, an excellent mock with a very realistic scenario. I'm still concerned about the safety position and overall cap health, but maintaining a decent roster for Love's evaluation year is probably more important than a full cap rebuild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 6:42 PM, Brit Pack said: Loved it, top to bottom. Think the restructures and the players signed are spot on! Like the positions you went after in the draft too! I think this could go down. I'd question keeping Nijman if we go OT early. Ooohhh who is going to be our kicker...? Yea, it's probably not the most likely scenario, but Nijman kind of left me feeling a bit sour with how he handled the end of the season. He's just not a very good right tackle. That's why I would like the Skoronski pick as a future investment as well, because we were to dump Bak in 2024, perhaps Nijman is your future Left Tackle where he's been a better player. I actually think Tom is the best RT currently on the roster, but really think he's like Jenkins as a "yes, he can play tackle, but he would probably excel at an interior OL position" type of player. Really would like GB to give Tom a shot a pushing Myers out at C. At kicker, Ryland from Maryland is good, but my guy would be Moody from Michigan. I've seen him a lot over the last few years (Michigan fan) and he's solid, has a huge leg and has kicked a lot in the cold as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 2:55 PM, Lodestar said: Not sure how realistic it is but I would cream my pants if this was our offseason Same. Seems like a lot of favorable draft, especially with the Tenn WR, but would like it a lot. I'm not sure White is the Edge I'd want there but could see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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