2023 NFL offseason

[adamq]

13 minutes ago, GW21 said:

What value? I don’t think he’s got any value to any other teams right now as it is. It costs us more to get rid of him than it’d be worth, and keeping him is good insolation in case Purdy isn’t ready or comes back down to earth.

The only scenario I can see right now is if someone gets desperate during the draft, but even still I don’t see him pulling enough for us to execute on a trade with his value where it’s at today.

When he has played, Lance has looked a helluva lot better than a Malik Willis or Desmond Ridder, to me at least.. a young QB on a rookie contract has to be worth something- and something is better than him doing nothing on the bench.   Car, Hou, Indy, and someone else will gobble up what appears to be the only 4 viable QB prospects in this draft.. and I think there are more teams than that looking for a (possible) upgrade. 

 

But yeah, this is all predicted on them being 100% confident in Purdy going forward, which it seems both the staff and locker room are.. If not, the 3QB approach is fine. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by adamq

[JIllg]

8 hours ago, GW21 said:

What value? I don’t think he’s got any value to any other teams right now as it is. It costs us more to get rid of him than it’d be worth, and keeping him is good insolation in case Purdy isn’t ready or comes back down to earth.

The only scenario I can see right now is if someone gets desperate during the draft, but even still I don’t see him pulling enough for us to execute on a trade with his value where it’s at today.

Plus, Lance is pricey to trade pre-June 1. He'll be a lot cheaper financially to trade after the draft and if you keep him around through training camp and preseason you get a lot of advantages - insurance against Purdy setbacks and other QB injuries, another long look at him as a prospect, a chance for Lance to impress prospective trade partners (Jordan Love looking good over a small set of snaps definitely upped his trade value and the team's own interest in seeing him play. Lance could definitely have a big game and attract a trade partner). If you trade him now, you get compensation now but you lose financially, you lose roster insurance, you lose a lot of potential upsides. 

[jonnguy2015]

I'd keep Lance around for another year as a backup(who knows we might need one again) and then if he isn't able to win the starting job trade him in 2024 to let another team make the decision on his fifth-year option

[NinerNation21]

I was thinking about the DL last night and two thoughts crossed my mind:

• I think we carry more DT this year
• I'm wondering if we don't have a big end to kick inside

Originally, I was thinking we'd carry 6 DE and 4 DT on the 53, but I think we may carry 5 DT if Kinlaw makes the team. We'll need a 5th guy for when Kinlaw goes down. 

I also think that with Hargrave on the team now, that we might not need a big end like Kerry Hyder to kick inside as much. Hyder kicked inside a lot because of injuries, but also because they like to have a pass rusher kick inside next to Givens.

With Hargrave on the roster, I wonder if we use Kinlaw and McGill more on early downs to keep Armstead, Hargrave, and Givens fresh for pass rushing situations. If so, I don't think we need a big end as much this year which allows us to bring in more of a typical edge rusher rather than a tweener. 

We still have one spot left for an impact end, if they want to pull the trigger on someone. We don't have any proven production opposite of Bosa and that's concerning. I hope they make a move for a guy either in trade or FA rather than draft for that final 53-man spot in the DE group.

[Forge]

If Purdy were healthy, I don't think that Lance is on the team right now. Now there is so much working against a trade that I'd be floored if it happens.

[NinerNation21]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

If Purdy were healthy, I don't think that Lance is on the team right now. Now there is so much working against a trade that I'd be floored if it happens.

If Purdy makes a full recovery and plays well in 2023, Lance is most likely traded next off-season. 

[Forge]

Just now, NinerNation21 said:

If Purdy makes a full recovery and plays well in 2023, Lance is most likely traded next off-season. 

It'll never be unfunny to me that for as good as this regime has been, they will have made the worst two picks in 49er history in that situation. 

[GW21]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

It'll never be unfunny to me that for as good as this regime has been, they will have made the worst two picks in 49er history in that situation. 

*so far

In all seriousness. I don't think Trey has had a fair shake to this point and I'm still not ready to call him a bust. I think he could really impress this offseason and make our staff really consider taking it slower with Brock and let Trey start out the season. It puts our staff in a much easier position imo: They get to see how Trey looks, and if he doesn't play up to snuff, they can easily insert Brock and just say something like 'This isn't an indictment on Trey; Brock has been our starting QB, but he just wasn't ready until now'.  

I just have a hard time believing that this staff will completely give up on Trey without seeing him play, solely based on what we gave up to get him. 

[John232]

I don’t even think Trey is bad, like some 49er pundits say. He literally has not played more than 2 meaningful games. Injuries and team trajectory have played a huge part in his not playing. 
 

Add to the fact that Purdy went out and straight up killed it…he weirdly became expendable.

 

I do think if purdy never suits up/sucks, they would still be moving on from Jimmy G and they still would have brought in Darnold to legitimately compete but Lance would ultimately win out.

 

jts a combination of terrible luck for him, not being a world beater when given the small amount of chances he’s has, and another dude just 100% taking over. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by John232

[NinerNation21]

9 minutes ago, John232 said:

I don’t even think Trey is bad, like some 49er pundits say. He literally has not played more than 2 meaningful games. Injuries and team trajectory have played a huge part in his not playing. 
 

Add to the fact that Purdy went out and straight up killed it…he weirdly became expendable.

 

I do think if purdy never suits up/sucks, they would still be moving on from Jimmy G and they still would have brought in Darnold to legitimately compete but Lance would ultimately win out.

 

jts a combination of terrible luck for him, not being a world beater when given the small amount of chances he’s has, and another dude just 100% taking over. 

Yeah to me, if Brock is fully healthy and plays well this year, which then prompts a Lance trade next offseason, it won't have happened because Lance is a bust, it will have happened because Purdy is just too good to take off the field. 

In that scenario, I'd applaud the Niners for pivoting to what's working and sticking with it. I like Lance and I want him to succeed, but he may have missed his chance because of Purdy and an unfortunate injury.  

[Forge]

55 minutes ago, GW21 said:

*so far

In all seriousness. I don't think Trey has had a fair shake to this point and I'm still not ready to call him a bust. I think he could really impress this offseason and make our staff really consider taking it slower with Brock and let Trey start out the season. It puts our staff in a much easier position imo: They get to see how Trey looks, and if he doesn't play up to snuff, they can easily insert Brock and just say something like 'This isn't an indictment on Trey; Brock has been our starting QB, but he just wasn't ready until now'.  

I just have a hard time believing that this staff will completely give up on Trey without seeing him play, solely based on what we gave up to get him. 

He definitely hasn't had a fair shake, and he may never really get it with the niners which is probably the worst way that entire process could have played out in my opinion. I remember how I was worried about how Kyle was going to draft Mac because Kyle had to be the smartest guy in the room and basically use his QB like he was playing Madden. Somehow, this was worse. He drafted the guy, used all of those assets, and we are just out on it after a sample size that means absolutely nothing. It's crazy how he may not get a chance to actually improve with this team in games...and I can't say that I blame the niners given where the team is at now and how Purdy looked and lead the team last year. That was simply a craptastic turn of events (for Trey - obviously for the team and fans it was still very good). It's hard for me, with a straight face to be like, "yeah, the guy who had this team averaging 30 points a game and helped get you to an NFCCG that your roster loves and believes in shouldn't be your starter". 

I really hope that we get some good vibes for Trey during training camp. Thats probably the one thing i'm most hopeful for. Just good vibes there. I'm not sure what it means...you can't value what Trey does in camp over what Brock did real games, I get that, but I'm just looking for baby steps. I feel like all we have heard about Trey since being drafted is how he has disappointed the team. So give me some good vibes and we can go from there lol

[Forge]

The funny thing is that I'm reasonably sure that I won't have any interest in extending Purdy beyond his rookie deal, though obviously there is a looooooooooooong way to go there. He's already far surpassed what I was thinking so there's no reason that he can't continue to be better and become a guy that gets past that tier of QBs that I have no interest in on second deals. 

[JIllg]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

The funny thing is that I'm reasonably sure that I won't have any interest in extending Purdy beyond his rookie deal, though obviously there is a looooooooooooong way to go there. He's already far surpassed what I was thinking so there's no reason that he can't continue to be better and become a guy that gets past that tier of QBs that I have no interest in on second deals. 

I think that the opening up of the second tier contract is good for the 49ers. I would be in on Purdy playing at/a little better than last year at the rate that Geno went to the Seahawks on or Jimmy G with the Raiders or Goff currently with the Lions. It's a chunk of change, but I think it is a middle tier contract that accurately represents underlying performance. Now, Purdy would theoretically have like 3 years of good performance under his belt so he might be closer to the Derek Carr apy at which point I'm out. I'm fine with ~30 mil. Not ~40 mil for a mid tier QB like Geno or Purdy or Dak (Or Lance or Darnold if they end up being the guys that get there for us). Because those kind of guys give you a chance with a great roster, but they don't move the needle. 

[GW21]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

He definitely hasn't had a fair shake, and he may never really get it with the niners which is probably the worst way that entire process could have played out in my opinion. I remember how I was worried about how Kyle was going to draft Mac because Kyle had to be the smartest guy in the room and basically use his QB like he was playing Madden. Somehow, this was worse. He drafted the guy, used all of those assets, and we are just out on it after a sample size that means absolutely nothing. It's crazy how he may not get a chance to actually improve with this team in games...and I can't say that I blame the niners given where the team is at now and how Purdy looked and lead the team last year. That was simply a craptastic turn of events (for Trey - obviously for the team and fans it was still very good). It's hard for me, with a straight face to be like, "yeah, the guy who had this team averaging 30 points a game and helped get you to an NFCCG that your roster loves and believes in shouldn't be your starter". 

I really hope that we get some good vibes for Trey during training camp. Thats probably the one thing i'm most hopeful for. Just good vibes there. I'm not sure what it means...you can't value what Trey does in camp over what Brock did real games, I get that, but I'm just looking for baby steps. I feel like all we have heard about Trey since being drafted is how he has disappointed the team. So give me some good vibes and we can go from there lol

This is fair. I do think these vibes you speak of are all external noise, but I'm not in the building either, so I can't say that for sure. I think it's more likely that Shanahan and Co. are slightly disappointed in his ability to run based on how hard they tried to utilize that to start out, but that doesn't mean they are completely out on the guy. 

I agree that we can't pull Purdy just to see what we have in Trey based on what Purdy has shown on the field. 

My hope is Trey takes this offseason by the horns and shows out in the pre-season at the very least. If Trey can make our staff question who should be starting we're going to be in a very good spot going into this season. 

[John232]

The nightmare scenario is fun to entertain too. Lance shows out as a bust/gets injured and Purdy gets injured or flames out. Id it happens to both guys, which is a very real possibility, it’s going to be real interesting to see how they react. 

 

Regardless, if purdy fails to continue upon last year, and the above happens,  the 49ers do the insane thing and trade up for Maye or Williams.
 

if a team drafting a QB this year ends up 1 and 2 overalls, I would strongly consider a trade up, a la Lance, if possible OR going hard and trading Bosa for a top 2 pick. (And probably more than a top 2 pick). It would depend on the team, obviously. But I still think the 49ers did the right thing moving up. I don’t think this leads them down a Rams road either, they’ve done a far better job getting actual high end talent late, not just spot starters and if you deal Bosa, though a huge hit, you start heading towards a road where they will have loads of open cap space