CWood21 Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said: Just like you pointed out with Adams, it was the early career of Morrison that give that hope. And I was onboard with that as a flier earlier (prior to this season). and We would have been a lower level signing. But this season has proved that he still has that ability. Which is why the price tag is so much higher. He may en up being overpaid, but thats how Free Agency works. He gets paid what the market dictates, not what his stats dictate. but as long as its on the short term, I am completely fine overpaying a little for a guy who could give you 40 HRs at the back end of your lineup. And why were the Cardinals (and us fans) willing to put up with those lumps? Because he was making the league minimum. When that salary starts to escalate, it's not really worth it anymore. IF/WHEN he regresses to his career averages, that signing looks even worse. There's no upside to a Logan Morrison signing. None. I'd rather just give those PA to Jedd Gyorko and Kolten Wong, even if they don't have the pop. It's a bad business model to sign player for the sake of signing players, which is pretty much what you're advocating here. You're looking to create surplus value, not deficit value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, CWood21 said: And why were the Cardinals (and us fans) willing to put up with those lumps? Because he was making the league minimum. When that salary starts to escalate, it's not really worth it anymore. IF/WHEN he regresses to his career averages, that signing looks even worse. There's no upside to a Logan Morrison signing. None. I'd rather just give those PA to Jedd Gyorko and Kolten Wong, even if they don't have the pop. It's a bad business model to sign player for the sake of signing players, which is pretty much what you're advocating here. You're looking to create surplus value, not deficit value. You're so nose in the textbook with all of this. And if that is what you want to do, fine, but with our long term payroll limitations (in comparison) we will never compete with the Cubs perennially for the foreseeable future. SO what if you are Paying for 4 WAR but only getting 3, that is still better than paying for 0.5 WAR and getting 2 out of it. Its still a whole extra Win. There are only so many at bats to go around, so Surplus only goes so far. You could have the best Surplus Wins in the league, but if your competitors are paying 3 times as much as you, and getting 75 cents on the dollar overall, they are still coming out ahead in the standings. You have to take risks if you are the Cardinals, and in doing that you have to do them in the short term. Paying the money (that we HAVE) for a 2 year contract, or lessen it to one as I have been advocating, is a risk worth while. Its exactly why everyone is fine with tossing out Qualifying Offers, 1 year deals never hurt you in the long run, and they are immediately sunk costs, especially if you werent going to be spending that money elsewhere. If I was saying just sign guys to sign them, I would be advocating for Hosmer or Mustakas, those are guys who would be wasting money. Why? Because of the Long Term nature of the contracts they would require. Edited December 21, 2017 by StLunatic88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I get both sides and the points trying to be made by @StLunatic88 and @CWood21. I'm trying to take my objective feelings out of this and look at it from the Cardinals FO perspective. My feeling is that they like what they saw in Jose Martinez and think he can build off that in 2018 with more regular AB's over the course of a season... Furthermore, I don't think the Cards view Morrison as a bat they wouldn't be able to find as a FA in any other year either, even with the power numbers he posted in 2017... Just don't see the fit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: Furthermore, I don't think the Cards view Morrison as a bat they wouldn't be able to find as a FA in any other year either, even with the power numbers he posted in 2017... Which is completely fair, and you are probably right. But I am working off of what Goold has said many times now, this 2 year window thing. If they are serious about that then they have to make that move Right Now, and its irrelevant to what they can find in other years. Also its not always that you can get this bat for only a 2 year deal. Most of these types of guys are looking to cash in one last time and get locked in for the next 4 years. I mean best case is that people all continue to pass on Hosmer's demands, and we come in with a short term over the top offer and let him get back to FA in a few years. Thats what I would be doing with the money they allocated to paying Stanton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Blue Jays beat writer was just on local radio here in STL talking about Donaldson. Couple of notes: - States at this point doesn't see trade happening now, as Blue Jays know 2018 might be last chance to compete for current roster. They are still actively seeking in FA. Says likely more willing to deal Donaldson in season if they fall back... - States Cards continue to call. He said similarly Alex A. (old Jays GM who traded for Donaldson) hounded Billy Beane for almost 12 months trying to get Donaldson from the A's before he finally was able to. Says Mo/Girsch might be doing same thing now for deadline deal... - He thinks if deal did materialize now, Jays would have interest in Gyorko and Carp vs. just prospects. Thinks they would give them INF options for injuries and controllable, proven assets to avoid full rebuild... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 43 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: Which is completely fair, and you are probably right. But I am working off of what Goold has said many times now, this 2 year window thing. If they are serious about that then they have to make that move Right Now, and its irrelevant to what they can find in other years. Also its not always that you can get this bat for only a 2 year deal. Most of these types of guys are looking to cash in one last time and get locked in for the next 4 years. I mean best case is that people all continue to pass on Hosmer's demands, and we come in with a short term over the top offer and let him get back to FA in a few years. Thats what I would be doing with the money they allocated to paying Stanton. TBH, I think this whole Cubs funny money is being overblown. The Cardinals are coming into their own TV money this year I believe and I've heard they're capable of going up to around the luxury tax. But they're obviously not going to pay the luxury tax for obvious reasons. But look at the Yankees and Dodgers this offseason. They both have funny money, and neither team is spending them on FA. Why? The new luxury tax rules have pretty much made a salary cap. Hell, we saw a Dodgers/Braves trade that effectively proved this. Right now, the Cubs are able to spend freely because their core is still under team control for reduced salaries. What happens when/if Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, etc. get paid? Their ability to stay below the luxury tax is going to be harder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 50 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: - He thinks if deal did materialize now, Jays would have interest in Gyorko and Carp vs. just prospects. Thinks they would give them INF options for injuries and controllable, proven assets to avoid full rebuild... I would think 3 years of control on Gyorko and Grichuck would be very appealing to them over the 1 year of Donaldson. (I think if they strike out on the Free Agent market, this switch might flip real fast) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Cards had interest in this guy...33 year old Closer over in Japan. Pretty sure they just don't want Mr. Eugene Koo to leave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said: Cards had interest in this guy...33 year old Closer over in Japan. Pretty sure they just don't want Mr. Eugene Koo to leave. I would have liked to have seen us add him. I've read positive things on him and seeing the success Oh had year one, probably a similar situation. 2 years at 6 million is nothing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyguy1609 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Phils fan here have a question. would you guys do this trade... .. Maikel Franco/ Tommy Joseph for Alex Reyes.. franco and tj give you a 1st/3rd combo will cost less the the bigger names at 3rd. or is Reyes off the market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrubes20 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 23 hours ago, CWood21 said: TBH, I think this whole Cubs funny money is being overblown. The Cardinals are coming into their own TV money this year I believe and I've heard they're capable of going up to around the luxury tax. But they're obviously not going to pay the luxury tax for obvious reasons. But look at the Yankees and Dodgers this offseason. They both have funny money, and neither team is spending them on FA. Why? The new luxury tax rules have pretty much made a salary cap. Hell, we saw a Dodgers/Braves trade that effectively proved this. Right now, the Cubs are able to spend freely because their core is still under team control for reduced salaries. What happens when/if Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, etc. get paid? Their ability to stay below the luxury tax is going to be harder. The new CBA will make it so teams will want to drop under the cap every 3 years or so. It's raising every year for the next few years as well, up to $210 million in 2020. The taxes aren't a big enough deterrent to the big spenders in most years, and they will be going considerably over in most. It's still a huge advantage. I'm guessing you will be seeing a lot more 3 year deals for big AAV going forward to account for this. Obviously not for the Harpers, Kershaw, or Machados, but for the MOR starters and other players 30+ in age. The Dodgers and Yankees chose this year to dip under, so that they can go hog wild next year in FA in what looks to be a once in a lifetime FA class. It's also a pretty weak FA class this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, flyguy1609 said: Phils fan here have a question. would you guys do this trade... .. Maikel Franco/ Tommy Joseph for Alex Reyes.. franco and tj give you a 1st/3rd combo will cost less the the bigger names at 3rd. or is Reyes off the market? Not a chance. As I've mentioned before, the Cardinals probably aren't even entertaining offers on Reyes given his injury and where his value. That being said, I don't even think Maikel Franco is even an upgrade over Jedd Gyorko, our starting 3B right now. Franco is coming off a miserable year and the year before he only posted a 1.4 WAR. Jedd has had 2+ WAR in three of his last five seasons, and the only two years he didn't was when was his ISO was well below his career average. Same thing with Tommy Joseph, he's a significant downgrade from Matt Carpenter. There's not a chance the Cardinals even remotely consider that deal. It's pretty bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 36 minutes ago, hrubes20 said: The new CBA will make it so teams will want to drop under the cap every 3 years or so. It's raising every year for the next few years as well, up to $210 million in 2020. The taxes aren't a big enough deterrent to the big spenders in most years, and they will be going considerably over in most. It's still a huge advantage. I'm guessing you will be seeing a lot more 3 year deals for big AAV going forward to account for this. Obviously not for the Harpers, Kershaw, or Machados, but for the MOR starters and other players 30+ in age. The Dodgers and Yankees chose this year to dip under, so that they can go hog wild next year in FA in what looks to be a once in a lifetime FA class. It's also a pretty weak FA class this year. That's kinda where I was going with that. The Cubs aren't going to operate with a payroll of $250M for two years, and then have to suddenly drop their payroll $40M+ just to get under the luxury tax. I'd presume they're going to operate in that $10-$15M range over the luxury tax that way if a deal presents itself, they can add or remove payroll as needed. Unexpectedly dropping below the luxury tax isn't going to hurt their chances of winning a World Series provided their core is still in place. Do I expect the Cubs to push if not exceed the luxury tax? Absolutely. Do I anticipate the Cardinals? No. But I do expect the Cardinals' payroll to increase. I believe I saw something that said that the Cardinals payroll could have pushed $165M last year if they wanted to, and with the new TV money rolling in they've got the capability of paying up to the luxury tax. The Cardinals have shown zero desire to want to pay the luxury tax, and quite frankly I'm okay with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 hours ago, flyguy1609 said: Phils fan here have a question. would you guys do this trade... .. Maikel Franco/ Tommy Joseph for Alex Reyes.. franco and tj give you a 1st/3rd combo will cost less the the bigger names at 3rd. or is Reyes off the market? Reyes is pretty much untouchable honestly. Unless it's a guy like Mike Trout, I don't see Cards moving him for anything. That includes the likes of Machado/Donaldson... Especially, coming off a TJS injury where some teams will likely try to devalue what he is based on the injury. The guy was the #1 pitching prospect just a year and half ago and absolutely dominated his 1st go around at the MLB level... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holt_bruce81 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 So why not trade for Archer and sign Wade Davis or Holland? unless you can get Colome for say a package of Grichuk/Junior Fernandez or something at that level, why not just fork over the extra dollars and sign one of these free agents who would probably be just as effective in that role and not cost you any prospects? Cardinals trade: Luke Weaver Randal Grichuk Harrison Bader Dakota Hudson Rays trade: Chris Archer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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