scar988 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Daniel said: You do realize that other players also get more expensive over time too, right? If you have a QB on a big deal, you need to have a lot of players still on their rookie draft deal. Otherwise, your team isn't going to be good. You have to have a good scouting department to build out the rest of your team through the draft. And good coaches to maximize those other players. It's no shock KC is still having a ton of success with Patrick Mahomes at QB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Going based off of Super Bowl winners, the real "the way" is finding a HOF, all-time great QB to build your team around. That's not a viable solution though. That's not a process, that is a lucky result that you then base your process on. Rookie QBs make sense in principle; if you can get a cost controlled player at the most important position, that you also have to pay the most when not on a rookie deal, on a rookie deal, that disparity in actual cost vs realized performance is greater than it would be or could be anywhere else. It allows you to just throw money wherever you want to quickly build up a team to compete in your window. I think it is moot though if you don't have the infrastructure in place for a rookie QB to contribute close to immediately, and by that I mean a great coaching staff. I think a great coaching staff is actually what gives your team a championship window. And with a great coaching staff, your window also exists outside of that rookie contract QB 5 year window. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, minutemancl said: Going based off of Super Bowl winners, the real "the way" is finding a HOF, all-time great QB to build your team around. That's not a viable solution though. That's not a process, that is a lucky result that you then base your process on. Rookie QBs make sense in principle; if you can get a cost controlled player at the most important position, that you also have to pay the most when not on a rookie deal, on a rookie deal, that disparity in actual cost vs realized performance is greater than it would be or could be anywhere else. It allows you to just throw money wherever you want to quickly build up a team to compete in your window. I think it is moot though if you don't have the infrastructure in place for a rookie QB to contribute close to immediately, and by that I mean a great coaching staff. I think a great coaching staff is actually what gives your team a championship window. And with a great coaching staff, your window also exists outside of that rookie contract QB 5 year window. This ^ Great coaching and scouting staffs give you a window much longer than 5 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 18 hours ago, General Tso said: So a couple observations here Tom F'ing Brady screws up the data here so much LOL i don't think this screws up the data. I think it's a secondary strategy. Being a team that would be appealing to a veteran QB, so you can sign/trade for them as the last missing piece is a viable alternative to the 'spin the rookie QB wheel a few times' strategy. Brady to the Bucs is the gold standard for this, but there are other teams that have had success with it too. The Saints, 9ers, and Vikings are versions of this strategy not working ideally. The Rams more or less pivoted to this when they moved to LA., and the Jets are currently crushing it, so this works for historically incompetent franchises. The upside is you don't have to go 3-14 to get a good QB. The downside is that which QB you get and when you get them isn't really in your control. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 51 minutes ago, scar988 said: This ^ Great coaching and scouting staffs give you a window much longer than 5 years. Uhh what? Great coaching staffs don't stay together for more than 1 year. Coaches can't even keep their sideline hold back guy for 5. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted March 20, 2023 Author Share Posted March 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: i don't think this screws up the data. I think it's a secondary strategy. Being a team that would be appealing to a veteran QB, so you can sign/trade for them as the last missing piece is a viable alternative to the 'spin the rookie QB wheel a few times' strategy. Brady to the Bucs is the gold standard for this, but there are other teams that have had success with it too. The Saints, 9ers, and Vikings are versions of this strategy not working ideally. The Rams more or less pivoted to this when they moved to LA., and the Jets are currently crushing it, so this works for historically incompetent franchises. The upside is you don't have to go 3-14 to get a good QB. The downside is that which QB you get and when you get them isn't really in your control. I think there is something outlier-ish about the GOAT QB making a fraction of what his peers make. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 1 minute ago, General Tso said: I think there is something outlier-ish about the GOAT QB making a fraction of what his peers make. The absolute difference between Brady's salary and a comparable elite QB is about $10MM/year, or less than 5% of the total salary cap. Not enough overall impact to justify exclusion, at 5% things like effective cap inflation management, dead money, ownership willingness to actually spend the entire allotted cap, etc. etc. all come into play as similarly sized factors. Not worth throwing out half the data because Brady adds a little noise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 1 hour ago, minutemancl said: Going based off of Super Bowl winners, the real "the way" is finding a HOF, all-time great QB to build your team around. That's not a viable solution though. That's not a process, that is a lucky result that you then base your process on. Rookie QBs make sense in principle; if you can get a cost controlled player at the most important position, that you also have to pay the most when not on a rookie deal, on a rookie deal, that disparity in actual cost vs realized performance is greater than it would be or could be anywhere else. It allows you to just throw money wherever you want to quickly build up a team to compete in your window. I think it is moot though if you don't have the infrastructure in place for a rookie QB to contribute close to immediately, and by that I mean a great coaching staff. I think a great coaching staff is actually what gives your team a championship window. And with a great coaching staff, your window also exists outside of that rookie contract QB 5 year window. Pretty much. There are two/three ways to win. 1. Have an elite QB 1A. Have a QB who is capable of going to an elite level for a stretch of games in the playoffs. Think Flacco/Eli/Foles 2. Have an all time defense. The issue with 1A is that the streaky QB might only give you 2 shots over their career so it's a lot to invest and then hope that things line up the right way the few chances you get. The issue with 2 is that an all time elite defense happens once or twice a decade and is incredibly difficult to sustain to the level you need to win a championship. An elite QB gives you 10-15 years to make it work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 44 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: The absolute difference between Brady's salary and a comparable elite QB is about $10MM/year, or less than 5% of the total salary cap. Not enough overall impact to justify exclusion, at 5% things like effective cap inflation management, dead money, ownership willingness to actually spend the entire allotted cap, etc. etc. all come into play as similarly sized factors. Not worth throwing out half the data because Brady adds a little noise. Yeah. It made things easier, but it was more about Brady letting them get that 1 extra piece or retain a few depth pieces. Nothing comprable to the advantage of if he was on a rookie deal. The big thing is Brady didn't decide to reset the market with his contract every single year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, lancerman said: Yeah. It made things easier, but it was more about Brady letting them get that 1 extra piece or retain a few depth pieces. Nothing comprable to the advantage of if he was on a rookie deal. The big thing is Brady didn't decide to reset the market with his contract every single year. Yep. During his New England time, the Pats made it work more by trading down constantly moreso than Brady taking paycuts so they could live on free agents. That inefficiency still exists, but teams are slightly less dumb about trading away future picks than they were so it's not as blatant. Edited March 20, 2023 by ramssuperbowl99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 "The Way" is simply moneyball with a competent coach leading it. The most obvious way to gain the biggest advantage is having a QB play really well on a rookie contract. That yields the most flexibility. All other strategies are a tier below, IMO, but still plausible because of the absolute rarity of the ideal option. Though it's relatively better, if you can't access the resources (as most teams can't) you edge seek in other areas. These are shrewd and intelligent people leading multi-billion dollar clubs. Edge seeking is in their DNA. If there was "one" way to do it, that way would cease to have an edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 None of Mahomes, Stafford, or Brady were on rookie deals as the last 3 SB winning QBs. But all three of those teams built talented / deep rosters and then moved on from their QB to take the next step. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AkronsWitness Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 The Way is finding a top 10 QB and when it comes time to pay him hopefully he doesn't eat 35% of your cap space. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leoric Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 You can’t pay for a top 5 player and not get top 5 player performance. If your QB isn’t top 5 in the league it’s silly to pay him like he is. It’s foolish to pay a player Joey Bosa top 5 money and get Joey Bosa injured/JAG production. I don’t want to pay Herbert 50m/yr and would trade him to a team willing to do so to the tune of 3 1st rounders. Chargers though are going to pay him and that will keep us middle of the road; cycling coaches for the next ten years until we waste his talent like we did Rivers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 it is a bit of a cheat code but just like cheat codes you can win without them...but you need to be really really good at QB to do so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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