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Packerraymond 2023 Mock Offseason V4


Packerraymond

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We likely have a bit more functional cap space than you show, but solid moves with the limited space overall. 

Martin, Bennett and Bostick have been some of my day three favorites for awhile now. I'm confident we'll get at least one.

If we take QJ over JSN, I'd be shocked but not mad. I like them both.

Biggest concern after this is o-line. Trading Nijman and just counting on a Runyan/Tom right side is pretty risky. No one on the roster will even push them for a starting spot. With Bakh possibly still on a snap count and Myers not having developed yet, this could be a long year for Love.

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50 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Picks 42 and 43 get you to pick 5 using OTC's chart. Swapping picks moves you to pick 4. That leaves the players and the additional conditional. Check me I'm on 5 hours of sleep after a booze cruise. 

Using the old Jimmy Johnson chart--came up with pick 17 overall. The swap makes it pick 15 overall plus the player swaps and the additional conditional for Rodgers and Nijman. If you're the Jets at that point--just give up 13 overall, ask for a 4th rounder to come back in the deal and keep Corey Davis and Ruckert for Rodgers to throw to. They don't exactly have a plethora of draft picks to replace those guys after they deal us 3 picks in exchange for 1.

Interesting, I have not seen OTC’s chart, only Drafttek’s chart, which is based on Rich Hill’s chart. That puts the value of the two 2nd’s at around #19. The pick swap then boosts it to around #16 or #17. 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill

I don’t think the Jets are that afraid of losing Davis & Ruckert. They barely combined for 544y & 2td last year. Lazard easily replaces that. 

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I like the draft just fine.  Though there is one pick that makes it a full grade level lower.

 

My biggest issue is, why are we giving Yosh Nijman away for free? The guy has shown to be a starting NFL tackle, we are also sending them the guy that won 2 of the last 3 MVP awards.  And in return we get a 2 pick jump in the first round and 2 second round picks, and two bust players? 

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8 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

Interesting, I have not seen OTC’s chart, only Drafttek’s chart, which is based on Rich Hill’s chart. That puts the value of the two 2nd’s at around #19. The pick swap then boosts it to around #16 or #17. 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill

I don’t think the Jets are that afraid of losing Davis & Ruckert. They barely combined for 544y & 2td last year. Lazard easily replaces that. 

Chart, Chart
Everywhere a chart
Blockin' out the scenery
Breakin' my mind
Draft this, don't draft that
Can't you read the chart?

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10 hours ago, ChaRisMa said:

Picks 42 and 43 get you to pick 5 using OTC's chart. Swapping picks moves you to pick 4. That leaves the players and the additional conditional. Check me I'm on 5 hours of sleep after a booze cruise. 

Using the old Jimmy Johnson chart--came up with pick 17 overall. The swap makes it pick 15 overall plus the player swaps and the additional conditional for Rodgers and Nijman. If you're the Jets at that point--just give up 13 overall, ask for a 4th rounder to come back in the deal and keep Corey Davis and Ruckert for Rodgers to throw to. They don't exactly have a plethora of draft picks to replace those guys after they deal us 3 picks in exchange for 1.

That OTC chart is garbage.  They put WAY too much value on Day 2 and Day 3 picks.  5-6 Seventh Picks is worth a late FRP according to that chart.  There isn't a GM in the league that would even remotely consider that.

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10 hours ago, Sandy said:

We likely have a bit more functional cap space than you show, but solid moves with the limited space overall. 

Martin, Bennett and Bostick have been some of my day three favorites for awhile now. I'm confident we'll get at least one.

If we take QJ over JSN, I'd be shocked but not mad. I like them both.

Biggest concern after this is o-line. Trading Nijman and just counting on a Runyan/Tom right side is pretty risky. No one on the roster will even push them for a starting spot. With Bakh possibly still on a snap count and Myers not having developed yet, this could be a long year for Love.

For sure agree on the OL, but it will be a hell of a pass pro OL, the run game would be more of my concern.

From my point of view this offseason would settle the skills for awhile. You've got QJ, Watson and Doubs for at least 3 years. If Melton or Toure becomes decent you have them too. You're hoping Smith stays healthy and you can sign him long term as a 26 year old to go with Washington and Ruckert. Deguara is probably a cheap re-sign too.

In the coming drafts there will definitely be a need to grab a round 1 OT. I would say OT, S and DL depth would be the biggest need going into 2024 offseason.

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

That OTC chart is garbage.  They put WAY too much value on Day 2 and Day 3 picks.  5-6 Seventh Picks is worth a late FRP according to that chart.  There isn't a GM in the league that would even remotely consider that.

Rich Hill chart is the best I've seen recently.

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4 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

For sure agree on the OL, but it will be a hell of a pass pro OL, the run game would be more of my concern.

From my point of view this offseason would settle the skills for awhile. You've got QJ, Watson and Doubs for at least 3 years. If Melton or Toure becomes decent you have them too. You're hoping Smith stays healthy and you can sign him long term as a 26 year old to go with Washington and Ruckert. Deguara is probably a cheap re-sign too.

In the coming drafts there will definitely be a need to grab a round 1 OT. I would say OT, S and DL depth would be the biggest need going into 2024 offseason.

That is true, I suppose, which would be the best scenario for Love. The depth still concerns me but I could live with it. I suppose an injury or a Jake Hanson sighting would teach Love something about adversity.

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5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

That OTC chart is garbage.  They put WAY too much value on Day 2 and Day 3 picks.  5-6 Seventh Picks is worth a late FRP according to that chart.  There isn't a GM in the league that would even remotely consider that.

I have to lean that way as well. If anyone is even on the fence at all—the OG chart was paying massive contracts to those higher picks! It should shift the opposite as a result.

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