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Desmond Ridder and the Atlanta Offense


incognito_man

2023 Falcons offensive DVOA Rank  

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  1. 1. 2023 Falcons offensive DVOA Rank



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Not surprised by the votes on this list. The Falcons have been the media's punching bag over this Lamar situation while no other team has gotten the same heat(people want Mike Vick 2.0). Most people seem to take media as the one and only truth so not shocking. I don't think Ridder is any guarantee to be a top 10 Qb or anything, but once he came onto the field AS was opened up the playback more and started passing more then he did with Mariota.

If the team is as successful running this year as last the offense will be better the ln it was with Mariota that I'm confident in.

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4 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

In fairness, I’d have to watch more of them. Didn’t see enough to be confident either way. 
 

tempted to say if their run game is as good, then they may win the division. I’m confident their D will be better

The run game was the bread and butter last year. IT should be again this year with basically the same OL (LG might be different) and the same group of RBs still under contract (Patterson, Allgeier, Avery Williams, Caleb Huntley). It's that old Broncos ZBS. It builds RBs from late round picks.

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I mean, sure, if Ridder is great, they'll be a good offense, but that's kind of the case with any team with a young QB. The Steelers, the Commanders, the Bears, could all have top 10 offenses if their QBs take a huge leap. But that doesn't happen with most.

Personally, I have a number of reservations. They were 13th in DVOA but 21st in weighted. So they actually got worse in DVOA as the season went on, probably when they transitioned from Mariota to Ridder. Obviously you don't expect a rookie to light the world on fire there, but less effective than Marcus Mariota is not a great jumping off point if you're trying to sell me on the team. You aren't going anywhere at 6.2 yards per attempt from your QB.

I don't particularly have faith in the team's offensive leadership to develop Ridder, either. Not confident they'll fail, necessarily, but neither has a track record that inspires, exactly. Ragone's NFL resume is basically developing Mitchell Trubisky. Arthur Smith had those two good years as OC in Tennessee, but they were very Derrick Henry driven offenses, and the fact that a head coach who largely has a track record coaching TEs couldn't seem to figure out what to do with Kyle Pitts last year bothers me a bit as well. To Smith's credit, he did get better play out of Tannehill than anyone else did, but he was still always Tannehill. I do think they did an absolutely fantastic job with Atlanta's running game last year. Excellently coached and gameplanned run game all year, every back they had was incredibly efficient. They will have a great run game again, I have no question of that. But a run driven offense does have something of a ceiling in the modern NFL (the Eagles were the only team over 10% DVOA that was what you would call run first, and they had MVP QB play), and neither guy to me has shown they can generate more than just a competent passing attack.

And I do like their skill guys. Pitts and London are a good starting point, the backs are great, I think they'll do well with having Jonnu Smith as a more traditional TE, will let them stop giving Parker Hesse a starter's snap count. I do think another WR would help, as Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller are really just depth guys, and no one behind them has ever caught more than a single pass in any NFL season. But ultimately, talent outside is only going to go as far as the scheme and QB. London had a very solid rookie season but it still only amounted to 800 yards, 4 TDs, 12 yards per catch, because of the QB play. Pitts had the most disappointing season I can ever remember for a TE. So for London and Pitts to really matter, you need better play from Ridder, and you need more sensible usage from the coaching staff. And it's projecting a lot to expect those two things to improve dramatically year over year.

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34 minutes ago, scar988 said:

The run game was the bread and butter last year. IT should be again this year with basically the same OL (LG might be different) and the same group of RBs still under contract (Patterson, Allgeier, Avery Williams, Caleb Huntley). It's that old Broncos ZBS. It builds RBs from late round picks.

Mariota contributed 440yds and 4 TDs at a 5.2 avg as well. Ridder isn't as good of a rusher as Mariota, but he has at least some ability. Might be a net decrease from QB position, but Allgeier should be better than he was early in 2022 as well.

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1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

Mariota contributed 440yds and 4 TDs at a 5.2 avg as well. Ridder isn't as good of a rusher as Mariota, but he has at least some ability. Might be a net decrease from QB position, but Allgeier should be better than he was early in 2022 as well.

The RBs ran for 2,200 yards last year and that led the league for all RB rooms and would have been 10th on it's own. I think they'll be fine. Ridder just has to have the ability to run. Even if he just does like 300 or so yards, that's more than enough rushing to keep those lanes open.

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     Desmond Ridder (PFF:#35th, DYAR:#23rd, FPPG:48th) is one of those frustrating QBs who drills much better than he plays.  He has average arm strength, above average accuracy, and 4.52 speed but is subpar at everything else, including evading tacklers.  That O-Line includes great run blockers (5th) but its pass protection (25th) leaves something to be desired:  a more elusive QB than Desmond Ridder.  The less said about his processing speed, touch, execution, progressions, and recognition skills the better.

     GM Terry Fontenot has done a fine job collecting defensive talent, starting with Jessie Bates III and Kaden Elliss.  The team is 10th in draft capital and has the softest schedule in the league this year, removing the option of tanking.  The front office is saying what a front orifice always does in these circumstances but when push comes to shove I'd be disappointed to see Desmond Ridder start...and Taylor Heinicke (PFF:38th, DYAR:25th, PFFG:30th) isn't any better.

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If Arthur Smith is willing to commit to their passing game and Riddler is actually good, they have a chance to have a really good offense. Drake London/Kyle Pitts are both studs, Alliger is a solid RB, Patterson is a jack of all trades, and I liked the additions of Jonu/Hollins as well. They could use a burner at WR though.

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All im saying is if you took every QB from last years draft, this years draft, and next years draft when they were coming out.  There are 6 QB's i would draft in the 1st round and take over all the other QB's when i was grading them.   The top 6 in order would be

1. Caleb Williams
2. Drake Maye
3. Bryce Young
4. C.J. Stroud
5. Malik Willis
6. Desmond Ridder

Thats the guys and how i would draft them in order everyone else i would have taken in the 2nd round or later so far with all 3 drafts added together.    So overall im quite high on Ridder and don't think we could get a QB in this draft i would take over him.   I see Stroud and Young going top 3 picks and Richardson and Levis i 100% for a fact wouldn't touch over Ridder.   Malik is the one that is bothering me most right now because i really liked him coming out. 

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10 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Running QBs often have early returns. I’d put him in the middle third of offenses. The problem is that if he dies t show it right away…you better move on…because there are diminishing returns 

Except he's never been a run first QB. Even at Cincinnati. He uses his legs to find space to throw. And then he runs as a last resort.

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