2024 Draft

[Ftn49]

On 1/16/2024 at 12:56 PM, adamq said:

 

 

Is he a day 3 guy? Haven't really heard anything about him 

Day 3 at best, probably UDFA 

[Forge]

Dane Brugler 2 round mock: 

Rd 1 - Graham Barton, IOL from Duke. 

Rd 2 - Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale

 

I don't hate the idea of going OL / OL, I just don't think it'll happen. Barton projects most often as a center, but I think consensus is that he can play anywhere inside though I don't believe he has any experience whatsoever at guard. He's been playing tackle at Duke and played a handful of games at Center.  I think you can try and fail him at tackle if you want, but I think there are probably more issues than his length when outside, so I don't think that this is Wirfs / Slater situation. 

This is a fine pick to me if he can play RG, but we see that doesn't always translate (I'm assuming Brendel is back and starting next year). 

 

This is a bit early for Amegadjie in my opinion. I thought round 3 maybe even into round 4, but he's the exact type of guy I was thinking about when I mention drafting a developmental tackle in like round 3 to sit a year before replacing McKivitz. If we decided to pick him here and sit, I don't think I'd be overly upset about it because if he hits, he's going to be a damn monster. 

[struby3]

53 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't hate the idea of going OL / OL, I just don't think it'll happen. Barton projects most often as a center, but I think consensus is that he can play anywhere inside though I don't believe he has any experience whatsoever at guard. He's been playing tackle at Duke and played a handful of games at Center.  I think you can try and fail him at tackle if you want, but I think there are probably more issues than his length when outside, so I don't think that this is Wirfs / Slater situation. 

He played I think 6 games at center as a freshman, but has only played LT the past three seasons. I still think he'll end up being a good center, but he might have to knock off some rust. Of course, he could sit behind Brendel for a season or play guard in the meantime.

[Forge]

DJ had us taking Kool Aid. 

I don't hate it, but I just don't think they are going to draft a corner. 

[JIllg]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

DJ had us taking Kool Aid. 

I don't hate it, but I just don't think they are going to draft a corner. 

If you look at the defensive backfield, the two deep is basically all set minus a longer boundary-corner type to back up Ward (assuming Oliver as backup FS). I think that two deep and the eye test suggest that just about all of the first five picks go to the trenches, especially the first one.

[Ftn49]

On 1/19/2024 at 7:28 PM, Forge said:

DJ had us taking Kool Aid. 

I don't hate it, but I just don't think they are going to draft a corner. 

I'm starting to come around slightly to Forges thoughts on interior Dline with the first pick just due to a run on tackles taking us out of range of good ones. That said I still think we'll trade up.

[JIllg]

On 1/18/2024 at 6:47 PM, Forge said:

Dane Brugler 2 round mock: 

Rd 1 - Graham Barton, IOL from Duke. 

Rd 2 - Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale

 

I don't hate the idea of going OL / OL, I just don't think it'll happen. Barton projects most often as a center, but I think consensus is that he can play anywhere inside though I don't believe he has any experience whatsoever at guard. He's been playing tackle at Duke and played a handful of games at Center.  I think you can try and fail him at tackle if you want, but I think there are probably more issues than his length when outside, so I don't think that this is Wirfs / Slater situation. 

This is a fine pick to me if he can play RG, but we see that doesn't always translate (I'm assuming Brendel is back and starting next year). 

 

This is a bit early for Amegadjie in my opinion. I thought round 3 maybe even into round 4, but he's the exact type of guy I was thinking about when I mention drafting a developmental tackle in like round 3 to sit a year before replacing McKivitz. If we decided to pick him here and sit, I don't think I'd be overly upset about it because if he hits, he's going to be a damn monster. 

I like watching Barton a lot - his zone combo blocks and reach blocks can be gorgeous, but I don't think that he can hang against bull rushes at the NFL level as a tackle. The length is part of it, but there are plenty of guys without the longest arms that aren't the heaviest that make up for it by using their leverage advantage as the shorter man, sitting their butts down firmly and just absorbing the blow. Barton too often is waist bending and reaching and just really struggles against power. For the same reason, I still worry about him at guard. He doesn't really move people on down blocks because of the same lack of reach and leverage. Like you said, I think center is his NFL position. There, he can do what he is best at getting a piece of multiple guys, understanding assignments, and being really fluid in space. And while I think we might draft a center type in the first three rounds, I don't think that guy starts at center year one. I think he starts at right guard over Burford before taking over in year two. So, long story short, I'm not sure how to handle Barton. I honestly think he'd look like Burford year one at guard. I think he'd probably be right about where McKivitz is year one- probably a better run blocker, but also probably an even worse pass blocker.

And I'm not sure that's worth the projected first round pick it would take to acquire him. I'm finding myself snapping up various defensive line pieces in the first round all of the time because I'm not a huge fan of the back end of the first round projected tackles, guards, and centers (that I would prefer to play at guard early on). I really want Fuaga. Or Latham. But I think they'll be gone (although the draft can be weird about tackles without all world physical testing).

I don't mind Amarius Mims. Physically, he's fluid when he knows what he's doing and immensely strong and crazily in shape for a 350 pound man and very long. But I'm wary of these guys who have monster physical traits and without a lot of experience and football IQ yet on this particular team. This staff seems best at extracting the most out of guys who profile more in the "crazily football obsessed nut who might not be the classical physical specimen" than they do at getting the most from freak shows. And Mims just seems so...tentative and cautious and not getting the most out of his freak show body as a run blocker. I swear that Barton washes more people away at the point of attack, and he's 50 pounds lighter. Now, Mims absolutely crushes dudes when he's allowed to flow down to the second level and things seem more like he's just operating naturally in space. He's got some highlight blocks that look like Trent throwing dudes out of the crib. That's what sells me on his fluidity and ability to pick up targets. So the upside is immense, but I just think that we (as a theoretical front office) need to understand our coaching staff's tendencies aside from just their schematic tendencies.

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, JIllg said:

don't mind Amarius Mims. Physically, he's fluid when he knows what he's doing and immensely strong and crazily in shape for a 350 pound man and very long. But I'm wary of these guys who have monster physical traits and without a lot of experience and football IQ yet on this particular team. This staff seems best at extracting the most out of guys who profile more in the "crazily football obsessed nut who might not be the classical physical specimen" than they do at getting the most from freak shows. And Mims just seems so...tentative and cautious and not getting the most out of his freak show body as a run blocker. I swear that Barton washes more people away at the point of attack, and he's 50 pounds lighter. Now, Mims absolutely crushes dudes when he's allowed to flow down to the second level and things seem more like he's just operating naturally in space. He's got some highlight blocks that look like Trent throwing dudes out of the crib. That's what sells me on his fluidity and ability to pick up targets. So the upside is immense, but I just think that we (as a theoretical front office) need to understand our coaching staff's tendencies aside from just their schematic tendencies.

Honestly, I'm kind of out on Mims. Can't explain it. Vibes thing

[JIllg]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

Honestly, I'm kind of out on Mims. Can't explain it. Vibes thing

I get it. I liked Broderick Jones a lot more last year coming out, and he was also very inexperienced and raw. But he performed like a top guy in the year he had on the field (and it was a full year - Mims was hurt for half the year). With Mims, basically you are living on pure faith in the planet theory and ignoring the performance third of the physical ability/on-field performance/personal character triad. And you are hoping that there isn't something in the third part of the triad that isn't undermining the second, because again, not that the most impressive tape ever for anyone, much less a super freak.

Edited January 21 by JIllg

[StevenK]

I think if Williams is coming back, which all signs are leading to we will go either Oline or DT depending on what’s available. I know there’s one top DT (Newton?) and a handful of good tackles. Does this draft have good DT depth? Seems like Oline could be had later, esp if we could grab the (Michigan) Guard later in the 2/3 that got hurt

I can’t foresee us going corner this early in the draft. 

Edited January 21 by StevenK

[JIllg]

49 minutes ago, StevenK said:

I think if Williams is coming back, which all signs are leading to we will go either Oline or DT depending on what’s available. I know there’s one top DT (Newton?) and a handful of good tackles. Does this draft have good DT depth? Seems like Oline could be had later, esp if we could grab the (Michigan) Guard later in the 2/3 that got hurt

I can’t foresee us going corner this early in the draft. 

I think Byron Murphy II is the second best DT in the class for us. Cat quick really short lighter penetrator that uses that that quickness to also menace the run (think either of the Rams stud DTs, although he's a bit heavier than either - honestly Hargrave himself is a good comp). Incredibly disruptive. He was born to one gap. Leonard Taylor III has a bit more of a do everything body - he's a bit more like DJ Jones or Kalia Davis in terms of build, but he's also a quick one gapping penetrator by style. I think either would be a great 3rd DT year one and would naturally inherit Hargrave's role.

Brandon Dorlus is a bit more of a tweener  pass rusher in the mold of Omenihu or Key than Armstead or Hargrave. Kris Jenkins is a rugged run defender, maybe the only one of these who could handle soaking the double teams that Armstead and Hargrave eat when we do 1.5 or 2 gap. But he has less juice than the rest as a pass rusher and penetrator, and I'm not sure we are interested in his profile as a team. Mekhi Wingo is like the diet version of Byron Murphy - short light penetrator type, but he isn't the monstrous disruptor that Murphy was. T'Vondre Sweat is a mountain man that can really move for his size - think Vita Vea or Jordan Davis. Not sure he'll be this staff's choice.

Edited January 21 by JIllg

[Forge]

 

[JIllg]

27 minutes ago, Forge said:

 

Yeah, I definitely feel this on my mock drafts. The first round is absolutely stacked through the first 20 picks - one of the best top ends in a while. The next 40 or so feel like roughly an average class. But things feel like a large fall off after.

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

1 hour ago, JIllg said:

Yeah, I definitely feel this on my mock drafts. The first round is absolutely stacked through the first 20 picks - one of the best top ends in a while. The next 40 or so feel like roughly an average class. But things feel like a large fall off after.

The good news is we don't have to draft the entire draft back 150, we just have to find three dudes who can push for a roster spot.  We have found value at UDFA and late rounders before, it's possible to find a couple of gems this year as well.  

Each team in college has 6 DB's and 4 WR's on the field pretty much every play.  Even if Juniors are staying home, there are still late round gems to be found there. 

If I had a basic strategy it would be trenches top 100, back end/skill value after.

[Forge]

On 1/21/2024 at 7:33 AM, JIllg said:

I think Byron Murphy II is the second best DT in the class for us. Cat quick really short lighter penetrator that uses that that quickness to also menace the run (think either of the Rams stud DTs, although he's a bit heavier than either - honestly Hargrave himself is a good comp). Incredibly disruptive. He was born to one gap. Leonard Taylor III has a bit more of a do everything body - he's a bit more like DJ Jones or Kalia Davis in terms of build, but he's also a quick one gapping penetrator by style. I think either would be a great 3rd DT year one and would naturally inherit Hargrave's role.

Brandon Dorlus is a bit more of a tweener  pass rusher in the mold of Omenihu or Key than Armstead or Hargrave. Kris Jenkins is a rugged run defender, maybe the only one of these who could handle soaking the double teams that Armstead and Hargrave eat when we do 1.5 or 2 gap. But he has less juice than the rest as a pass rusher and penetrator, and I'm not sure we are interested in his profile as a team. Mekhi Wingo is like the diet version of Byron Murphy - short light penetrator type, but he isn't the monstrous disruptor that Murphy was. T'Vondre Sweat is a mountain man that can really move for his size - think Vita Vea or Jordan Davis. Not sure he'll be this staff's choice.

I'm familiar with Taylor, I'll have to give Murphy and the rest so views when the season is over. 

I think we definitely need some fresh legs in the middle on the defensive line. I'll probably be going back and forth all off season on which position we are going to target in the first round - Offensive or defensive line.