Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Forge said: This is more like a more recent line of thinking because its driven far more analytically on the value of production in roster building. Hitting on an OT is far more valuable than hitting on a Nickelback and because of that, you don't have to hit on them as often to make it worth because of the difference in salary. The draft is a gamble. Outdated thinking is taking a full back in round 1 or 2. 3 of the top 5 picks in a draft being running backs, etc. The difference between Lenoir and the outside corner is less than the difference between Lenoir and the backup slot corner. That doesn't really have anything to do with what position is more valuable, but rather how you're getting the best out of the roster you have. If i have a tackle who can play center, and I decide to move him to center because I have a weakness there and a really good swing tackle, that doesn't mean center is as valuable as tackle. Or we could have drafted Joey Porter and been just fine. The draft is a gamble. Branch could have sucked lol. And generally, prospects have tiers. There isn't a nickel back in this draft that is substantially better than anyone who is going to be there at 31, so when you're at that point, positional value definitely matters. There is a point, as you go through the draft, where I do agree that this becomes less important. If you have a slot corner graded as a 6.4, and you're next best player on the board is a 6.1, sure, go for it. But if I have a slot corner at 6.4 and outside corner at 6.35, I'll probably take the latter. This is actually pretty similar to when I have a prospect who doesn't meet a certain threshold. There's a point where I'll take that person, but they have to be the best player on my board pretty clearly. Yes and no. In this age, a lot of wide receivers play kind of everywhere. Even Kupp played a third of his snaps outside of the slot. This is quite a bit more intermingled than a true slot corner. You can also run your offense through a slot receiver no differently than an outside receiver. Generally speaking a slot corner is a slot corner. He's not doing much else. IF they have more versatility or you think they have versatility, that changes the game. Good example of that is Dejean in this draft. I just said I don't think I'd take safety / nickel corner in the first in part because there is little value there. Woudl have to be a special prospect. I've also said that Dejean is probably a safety at the next level. But i think he could play outside zone off coverage, I think he could be big nickel (wouldn't have him little nickel) and he's basically just a chess piece for me. That has value for me. We are talking about defensive players rather than offensive players. Positional value varies based upon sides of the ball. Positional value matters more on offense than defense. If positional value were maximized through drafting more players at the most valuable positions, 53 QB's would win the superbowl every year. I want a guy to cover a positionless receiver when he's inside. If we have great outside guys, and a crap tastic inside player (Oliver) teams just move Lamb/Kupp/Chase/etc inside and their best player is against our worst player all game because of positional value on a chart. If he's gotta cover those guys, he needs to not suck. Whether or not there is a guy worth that pick in this draft is a different story. I haven't watched all the guys, but Branch from last year would be well worth pick 31. Compared to a franchise LT? well no, but were any franchise LT's drafted at the end of the first last year? Edited April 19 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhyAmIHere Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 11 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said: Jimmy Ward looked pretty good there as he was a larger player, but thought K'won Williams played the position better. Oliver was no bueno. Lenior looked solid inside. If the quick guy can tackle and is physical in run fits, I wouldn't hate a guy there who was 5"11 190 like Lenior. I think finding a K'won type that can hit run fits is easier than finding a safety who can cover Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all day. Nickel is the new base defense, and it is a hard position to play in the 9ers scheme. I don't think of the defense in terms of traditional value, I think of which zone they occupy in the cover 3, and how (and with who) do they attack that part of the zone. 3rd WR's are more deadly than 2nd tight ends, so logically, it makes sense to place a higher priority on guys that cover the 3rd WR rather than hold up against the 2nd Tight end. well I do think DeJean would be like Ward but even better. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 3 hours ago, Forge said: We have a ton of corners who are likely fine. Not an easy position to transition to, so I'm not even sure you're drafting a guy better than those. If you're going corner at the end of round one, it should be an outside corner. Nickels simply don't have the value. I'd take one in the first for the right prospect, just like I would a running back. But that's going to be an exception. And that doesn't exist in this draft Corner and all non premium position players (looking at you, Brock Bowers) just have to be sooo good to even sort of justify the investment and even the guys that hit in the top 5 or ten at those positions don’t feel like home runs - more like doubles. You’re only going to save like 7-10 mill a year max on those guys where with any #2 wr, you are currently saving 15-20. Same with primary pass rushers and OTs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9erFreak77 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Is it wrong for me to wanting us to draft Brenden Rice for nostalgic reasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GW21 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 54 minutes ago, 9erFreak77 said: Is it wrong for me to wanting us to draft Brenden Rice for nostalgic reasons? I feel like he's got some real potential, so wanting to draft him isn't wrong, but purely for nostalgic reasons might be a little different lol. I also like what Frankie G Jr. has done and would love to bring him in. McCaffrey is also very appealing to me. T.O.'s son and Ron Stone's son I know nothing about other than that they're draft eligible. Out of all the guys with Niner connections, I think that Luke McCaffrey is the most likely, followed by Gore, and then probably Rice. McCaffrey because Kyle is running the show, Gore next because Jed loves Frank Sr. and he is working in the front office/it'd be a cool story similar to the Deuce Vaughn thing last year, and then Rice because I don't see any real connection with our current staff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevenK Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 It’s odd that I’ve been doing mocks lately on PFF and Newton has fallen into my lap, every time! A couple of wks ago, good luck, but that is odd and they still have him listed as their #11 prospect. I get a lot of Newtons or JPJ situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 12 minutes ago, StevenK said: It’s odd that I’ve been doing mocks lately on PFF and Newton has fallen into my lap, every time! A couple of wks ago, good luck, but that is odd and they still have him listed as their #11 prospect. I get a lot of Newtons or JPJ situations. JPJ falling a decent amount into the second seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Feels like everyone has jumped on that wagon Feels like a lot of people had Newton fall out of the first here and there, but I think with him being able to do his pro day and go through drills and whatnot, we'll start to see the mocks have him at the back end of the first again. I think there's a decent chance that he's there in the first for us. Much closer to 50/50 than i would have predicted 4 weeks ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JIllg Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 7 minutes ago, Forge said: JPJ falling a decent amount into the second seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Feels like everyone has jumped on that wagon Feels like a lot of people had Newton fall out of the first here and there, but I think with him being able to do his pro day and go through drills and whatnot, we'll start to see the mocks have him at the back end of the first again. I think there's a decent chance that he's there in the first for us. Much closer to 50/50 than i would have predicted 4 weeks ago JPJ's physical toolset is just that of a top level guard rather than a center for me. He just doesn't move well enough for a center. I think that's definitely worth a first round pick these days, but I doubt we'll be the team to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geek Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 hour ago, 9erFreak77 said: Is it wrong for me to wanting us to draft Brenden Rice for nostalgic reasons? Something interesting that Barrows pointed out is we were supposed to host him on a visit but that didn't end up happening. Could be we just didn't want to waste a visit since the organization probably already knows him fairly well via the fact he's probably been around the 49ers forever. Or we just ended up not liking him that much and dropped the interview. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geek Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Did anyone else see that Bill Belichick/ Pat McAfee interview? There's some great stuff in it. Seems like Bill is going to be cohosting their live draft show and doing it from the perspective of a head coach/GM with his own draft board and everything. Seems like it'll be very interesting to watch. I'll probably be watching that and whatever the Athletic has going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 11 minutes ago, JIllg said: JPJ's physical toolset is just that of a top level guard rather than a center for me. He just doesn't move well enough for a center. I think that's definitely worth a first round pick these days, but I doubt we'll be the team to do it. He is a really thick center lol I'm not sure the extent of the concussion history, but I'd be very nervous about that history with a guy who makes his money by smashing other guys in a very small area too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geek Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 I'd love JPJ because he is such a brawler. He can just run over anyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevenK Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 24 minutes ago, Geek said: Something interesting that Barrows pointed out is we were supposed to host him on a visit but that didn't end up happening. Could be we just didn't want to waste a visit since the organization probably already knows him fairly well via the fact he's probably been around the 49ers forever. Or we just ended up not liking him that much and dropped the interview. Agreed he didn’t come to his visit and plus I don’t care for Rice. I think there’s better receivers especially around his range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ftn49 Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 50 minutes ago, Geek said: Something interesting that Barrows pointed out is we were supposed to host him on a visit but that didn't end up happening. Could be we just didn't want to waste a visit since the organization probably already knows him fairly well via the fact he's probably been around the 49ers forever. Or we just ended up not liking him that much and dropped the interview. I can't say that I personally know the situation so I don't want to make any accusations or anything but I know Guy had mentioned when he went and interviewed him when he was with Colorado that he was warned that Brenden was much closer to his mom, or don't ignore the mom when interviewing or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhyAmIHere Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 (edited) I'm actually starting to be ok with Michael Hall at #31. His interior pass rush is monstrous. He completely wrecked Michigans oline. And are we sure he can't play DE on some downs? He's 6-3, long arms, twitchy as hell, and ran a 4.7 lol. Moves like a DE to me. Guy is only 20, if he can't stop the run I'm sure he can learn. Edited April 19 by WhyAmIHere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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