The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[ripsean21]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

The way to define “best player” always involves positional value. Especially at the top of the draft. You know this as well as I do — otherwise guys like Quenton Nelson and Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson would have been runaway #1 picks. And guys like Tyler Linderbaum and Dalton Kincaid and Jack Campbell wouldn’t fall into the 20s (or thereabouts). 

But they do, and that’s because teams have (correctly) determined that elite players at some positions are more scarce, have more impact on winning, and get paid more on the FA market. QBs, DEs, and LTs get pushed up the board, and TEs, LBs, IOLs, and safeties get pushed down. It’s not just about picking the highest graded player on the board — context be damned. None of this is new, and it’s all sensible. 

All of which I know you know, especially because you’re mentioning Joe Alt in the same discussions as Marvin Harrison, and he isn’t close to the same level of prospect on a grading scale. The only reason Joe Alt would ever get taken at #2 is because of some combination of positional value and team need. 

And no, I don’t think the NFL does the positional value stuff perfectly. I think OTs are probably overvalued in today’s game, maybe even EDGEs as well (although a truly elite EDGE is still a total game changer, it’s the next tier down and below that have been neutralized). And I think that TEs and Cs are probably undervalued at this point. But the one place I absolutely do agree with the NFL is QB. If you were to measure positional value on a scale of 1-10, with QB being a 10 — I don’t think any other position could be higher than about a 4. 
 

There’s a good non-Chase Young example that I actually just reminded myself of. Colts took Quenton Nelson at 6 in 2018. Incredible player. 4x All-Pro, 6x Pro Bowler. He’s slowing down already (another reason to prioritize QB) but he’s been an absolute stud for them. Next pick? QB Josh Allen. The Colts haven’t won a single playoff game since 2018, and they have basically a .500 record since drafting Nelson. They’ve now started a different Week One QB in 6 consecutive seasons. Josh Allen spends every January playing against Patrick Mahomes and collecting MVP votes — Quenton Nelson spends his Januarys fishing or playing video games or being in the Pro Bowl.

 

The point is, you force the QBs up the board because if you hit, it changes your franchise’s entire trajectory. If Caleb Daniels or Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels hits as a star QB in our uniform, it will be the most important draft pick made by this franchise in 87 years. That’s not an exaggeration. If we hit on Harrison or Bowers or Alt at that pick? Cool. Fun to have a great player, I guess. But we’ve had great players, and just like them, none of it will matter until we find a QB. Just like Quentin Nelson hasn’t mattered for the Colts and Myles Garrett hasn’t mattered for the Browns and Chase Young didn’t matter for us.

I completely understand. And you are right. All the examples and the Nelson pick was a great pick and the Allen pick was even better. And it’s a total crap shoot but the second QB taken was Darnold in that class. The first is Baker on his 4th team. There are always the breakdowns. We have trait players. A lot of Trait QB’s always hit the eye of the beholder. Then you have performance QB. The one putting up numbers awards and that type. Then the system QB. The one who wins teams are great. But as we all know out of all the top 3 and the other 4 or 5 guys who go in the top 3 rounds; odds are one maybe two become legit starters or more. Could be any one of these QB’s.

Ultimately though here is where I’m at. I actually think we are the best potential team outside of maybe Atlanta to take a QB in this draft and develop them into their potential. I say Atlanta but my choice for best team throughout the draft is clearly Minnesota. JJ and Addison a solid OL and a coach I believe can develop a younger QB it’s def the Vikings for me. But I also trust this staff. We have targets that are QB friendly. Unless your running EB’s offense because that isn’t working without Brandon Marsh and Andre Johnson it’s just too much volume throwing.

ultimately it’s less about the player then moreso the team. We can mention name after name after name. But time and time again it’s the team. We could have picked every QB we comp these guys too the last 4 years and I promise you Ron would have made them do the opposite of their strength. This is the first time this team truely has a real chance to develop a QB since the Shanny staff. So while I pick apart every reason we shouldn’t take any of them ultimately whichever player they take whenever they take them I believe we give some of the best odds to the player selected to achieve their potential. Best in class outside of Minnesota and maybe Atlanta of the QB needy teams and staffs.

[Slappy Mc]

55 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Who were they going to take then? They had just taken Haskins the year before. 

To be fair, Rivera didn't take Haskins. Just like the Cardinals drafting Kyler the year after getting Rosen, if that's where you want to go, make the decision.

I wasn't upset at the Chase Young pick. I'm not going to sit here and play the hindsight game, dude was a monster coming out. Just like with QBs, any player can become a bust. 

I think we have a far more experienced and educated staff than anyone on this board and anything we have had in the past 20 years, yes even Gibbs 2.0. I trust them to make the correct decision for the direction and future of this team. If that's at QB, awesome. If it's a different position, I hope we capitalize on the positional value of our draft position and trade out of the spot while nabbing the best player possible. 

I'm still very optimistic about the future, but it won't happen overnight (one offseason). 

[Slappy Mc]

30 minutes ago, e16bball said:

The thing is, some of those guys you named are also going to fail or be mediocre. There’s risk in all of them, including (and probably especially) in the QBs. The difference is that the potential reward with the QBs is exponentially higher than the potential reward with any of the other guys you could take.

I don't dispute what having a "star QB" can do for you, but I just don't see it with this class. It's a personal preference and undoubtedly not the same thinking the FO will make, but I don't think any of the top QBs have the "Stroud effect" on us. 

If/when they do go QB, they better get the line fixed with their next two draft picks because whoever is back there will get killed behind what we have.

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

And no, I don’t think the NFL does the positional value stuff perfectly. I think OTs are probably overvalued in today’s game, maybe even EDGEs as well (although a truly elite EDGE is still a total game changer, it’s the next tier down and below that have been neutralized). And I think that TEs and Cs are probably undervalued at this point. But the one place I absolutely do agree with the NFL is QB. If you were to measure positional value on a scale of 1-10, with QB being a 10 — I don’t think any other position could be higher than about a 4. 

Great post.  The only quibble I have is that you're actually massively undervaluing the QB position here.  Positional value has been studied in depth at PFF (and elsewhere).  The QB position is worth at least 5.5x more than the next highest position - which, incidentally, is WR - a position I think is wrongly devalued in the draft relative to OT and EDGE.  In the table below, you can see in the "Mean in War" column that the QB position's impact outweighs the entire rest of the positions combined.

https://assets-global.website-files.com/5f1af76ed86d6771ad48324b/5f6a67e0957a471f8a59fdf5_Eager_PFF_WAR.pdf

 

It gets interesting when you compare DL positions against secondary positions: The secondary is actually much more valuable in a vacuum... but the advantage is outweighed by the fact that secondary has such a low year-to-year correlation.  Meaning you can have a standout secondary player one year and it wouldn't be surprising if he is middle of the pack or below average the next year, which is easy to see if you look at year-over-year PFF grades for DL vs. secondary players.

Anyway, it is an absolute no brainer to keep taking swings at QB as early and often as possible until you find a franchise guy.  QB is the only position comparable to the impact a star NBA player can have on his team.

 

Edited February 23 by HTTRDynasty

[ripsean21]

12 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

Who did we win our SBs with? Was it one star QB and a bunch of nobodies? 

I wholeheartedly disagree with this entire take. Josh Allen is a star QB, how many SBs has he won? What about Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyle Murray, Deshaun Watson?

This roster is not a QB away from a SB. We need to stop acting that way and treat this as the situation it is. We have a terrible roster. We need new starters at QB, RB, TE, LT, LG, C, RT, LDE, RDE, MLB, CB1, CB2, SS. This team needs a lot of work. So getting really good to great football players at those positions should be the goal. 

You know what helped Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy and  Lamar Jackson be successful? Having a solid team around them and a coach who knew how to take care of a young QB. 

I know I'm a downer because I'm not that high on this QB class, but we need to see this team for what it actually is. We won't be competing for a championship or even a playoff spot next year. We have a lot of holes all around our roster and getting quality players or "stars" at those positions is absolutely what we need to do. If the QBs end up being that, then great, but we have to be as sure as we can and have the right plan for the player already in place. 

Ron ruined that vision for this fanbase and that’s why the 2 pick is being talked about the way it is. The truth is that is a great plan to build a team. But Ron and co weren’t capable of that. So because that was the proposed heading and it went nowhere now it’s about trying a whole new way. Honestly I think it’s just really about who we have making the picks and will this staff develop them? I actually think yes. We have holes. But we also have no idea if simply coaching the players who had talent we have not developed here yet can get them headed back to their potential instead of them continuing to be limited. We are not strong where it matters. The trenches need a ton of help. Fix this and I believe we can maximize the talent on the roster. But if we continue to ignore one side for the other then we will continue to falter. It takes 3 phases. Not just being great at 1.

[Slappy Mc]

5 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

It takes 3 phases. Not just being great at 1.

Exactly where my mind is at. Yes, the QB position is a major factor in one of those phases, but even a great QB doesn't make up for a **** offensive line, receivers not getting separation or no running game.

Our defense gave up the 3rd most points in NFL History. There are lots of things that must be addressed. 

[ripsean21]

8 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Great post.  The only quibble I have is that you're actually massively undervaluing the QB position here.  Positional value has been studied in depth at PFF (and elsewhere).  The QB position is worth at least 5.5x more than the next highest position - which, incidentally, is WR - a position I think is wrongly devalued in the draft relative to OT and EDGE.  In the table below, you can see in the "Mean in War" column that the QB position's impact outweighs the entire rest of the positions combined.

https://assets-global.website-files.com/5f1af76ed86d6771ad48324b/5f6a67e0957a471f8a59fdf5_Eager_PFF_WAR.pdf

 

It gets interesting when you compare DL positions against secondary positions: The secondary is actually much more valuable in a vacuum... but the advantage is outweighed by the fact that secondary has such a low year-to-year correlation.  Meaning you can have a standout secondary player one year and it wouldn't be surprising if he is middle of the pack or below average the next year, which is easy to see if you look at year-over-year PFF grades for DL vs. secondary players.

Anyway, it is an absolute no brainer to keep taking swings at QB as early and often as possible until you find a franchise guy.  QB is the only position comparable to the impact a star NBA player can have on his team.

 

I agree with taking plenty of swings at QB. But that’s where I get crucified. I talk about the value of the player based on round to how much different is prospect being selected in this class in the top 3 or the guy being taken at 15 or 25? If we use E’s example from the Allen class is well the truth is there isn’t one. The player isn’t the most important thing. Darnold could have panned out with a team with a proper plan. Allen could have gone to the jets and sucked. Again I think the value comes from the team. Not the player they are all really amazing in some sense. But where are they getting picked and how will they be used?

[HTTRDynasty]

13 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

I agree with taking plenty of swings at QB. But that’s where I get crucified. I talk about the value of the player based on round to how much different is prospect being selected in this class in the top 3 or the guy being taken at 15 or 25? If we use E’s example from the Allen class is well the truth is there isn’t one. The player isn’t the most important thing. Darnold could have panned out with a team with a proper plan. Allen could have gone to the jets and sucked. Again I think the value comes from the team. Not the player they are all really amazing in some sense. But where are they getting picked and how will they be used?

Sure, outliers exist.  But the fact is it gets progressively harder to "hit" on a QB the further down you pick them.  I agree with you that organizational buy-in and competence is ultimately what will determine a QB's success long-term or not.  All QBs need support from a variety of sources in order to thrive, and for the last 20+ years we didn't have an environment where that could realistically occur.  We should have that now (fingers crossed), so now it's about finding the raw talent at QB that we can mold into the face of our franchise for the next 10+ years... and circling back on the first point, finding that raw talent is easier to do the higher you pick.

Edited February 23 by HTTRDynasty

[e16bball]

41 minutes ago, offbyone said:

I also think it extends beyond positional value.  Teams draft for fit too and they should.  Don't draft a nose tackle if you have no intent to play a 3-4.  We shouldn't pretend that all these factors, positional value, fit, need etc doesn't matter

Absolutely. One of the things @Woz and I always agreed on was the notion of “BPA” would have to incorporate some balance of three factors: player grade, positional value, and team need. 

As an aside, I actually swindled W&M into letting me write an econometrics based “research project” on literally that exact concept (the holy trinity of BPA factors) to earn my scholarship stipend. $2k to the top 7% of incoming kids for the opportunity to do an extensive research that they’d then own — you get what you pay for 😂

Anyway, as you say, the concept of team fit/player type absolutely has to be baked in there somewhere. I’ve traditionally sort of fit it into the team need determination — “our need for a traditional NT is a 2 but our need for a penetrating 3T is a 6” — but it probably should get factored into positional value a bit too. A pure slot receiver is not as valuable as a true X receiver, and so on. It’s more temporary, in the sense that schemes and personnel change over time, in a way that talent and position value really don’t. But obviously a factor, especially during the rookie contract.

That’s one of the reasons that I wish I knew more about the offense we’re going to be running. Kingsbury was obviously hot for Murray, who plays more like Daniels. But his system has always been classified as “Air Raid,” which is where Maye was absolutely unreal as a true sophomore. I think our current receiving talent is probably a better fit with Maye and his A+ ability to work the intermediate routes in the middle of the field than it is with Daniels’s dropped-in deep go balls — but Daniels throws a hell of a slot fade that I could see McLaurin and Dotson catching.

[MKnight82]

1 hour ago, Slappy Mc said:

Who did we win our SBs with? Was it one star QB and a bunch of nobodies? 

I wholeheartedly disagree with this entire take. Josh Allen is a star QB, how many SBs has he won? What about Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyle Murray, Deshaun Watson?

This roster is not a QB away from a SB. We need to stop acting that way and treat this as the situation it is. We have a terrible roster. We need new starters at QB, RB, TE, LT, LG, C, RT, LDE, RDE, MLB, CB1, CB2, SS. This team needs a lot of work. So getting really good to great football players at those positions should be the goal. 

You know what helped Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy and  Lamar Jackson be successful? Having a solid team around them and a coach who knew how to take care of a young QB. 

I know I'm a downer because I'm not that high on this QB class, but we need to see this team for what it actually is. We won't be competing for a championship or even a playoff spot next year. We have a lot of holes all around our roster and getting quality players or "stars" at those positions is absolutely what we need to do. If the QBs end up being that, then great, but we have to be as sure as we can and have the right plan for the player already in place. 

I think we could be competing for a playoff spot next year. 

[RSkinGM]

19 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I think we could be competing for a playoff spot next year. 

Didn't you mean to post this in the "Unpopular Opinion Thread" ? ☺️

[MKnight82]

20 minutes ago, RSkinGM said:

Didn't you mean to post this in the "Unpopular Opinion Thread" ? ☺️

Tell that to Texans fans. 

[Slappy Mc]

26 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I think we could be competing for a playoff spot next year. 

I think I could hit the lottery as well. 

I know you believe in the roster more than I do, but we cannot disregard the facts. 32nd ranked defense, 26th ranked offense. 0-9 against teams .500 and above. 4-4 against teams below .500. The most passing yards allowed, 6th most rushing yards allowed, 2nd most sacks allowed, most explosive plays allowed. 

Coaching won't change the performance of those players by a significant margin. We have below average players drafted by a terrible front office. 

[Slappy Mc]

7 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Tell that to Texans fans. 

You mean the team that signed a young first-time HC and paired him with a rookie QB and an up and coming OC? 

Tell me again, what were your feelings on hiring Dan Quinn as head coach?

[MKnight82]

19 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said:

I think I could hit the lottery as well. 

I know you believe in the roster more than I do, but we cannot disregard the facts. 32nd ranked defense, 26th ranked offense. 0-9 against teams .500 and above. 4-4 against teams below .500. The most passing yards allowed, 6th most rushing yards allowed, 2nd most sacks allowed, most explosive plays allowed. 

Coaching won't change the performance of those players by a significant margin. We have below average players drafted by a terrible front office. 

I disagree. I think the new coaching staff will significantly improve the performance of the players currently on the roster. We have talent on the roster that was put in a really bad position schematically, particularly on defense. Add to that 5 top 100 pick incoming rookies, one of which is likely a QB, some upgrades in free agency and I think the roster will be highly competitive.