The 2024 Commanders NFL Draft Thread

[turtle28]

8 hours ago, taylor made said:

What about his 2021 season before his knee injury?

Been over this. Tape shows an active player. 

[turtle28]

6 hours ago, ARTMONK HOF said:

This guy is a WR before he catches the ball and a RB after he catches it. 
 

 

Looks like Antonio Gibson, I’d be afraid we’d take a college WR & stupidly try to make him into a full time RB. 😂 jk

I like what I see

[ARTMONK HOF]

 We need this guy. 

[e16bball]

9 hours ago, offbyone said:

Harder to find the right personnel.  The personnel pool is smaller.  Hard to maintain the personnel.  And it is often unattractive to the best players.  Like a player who is the best NT, truly doesn't want to play NT as generally that job just means you are trying to take on blocks for everyone else.  The OLB/DE who can rush the passer, generally prefer to just be DEs.  etc.

To your point, if only 3 out of 32 teams are consistently doing it, isn't that an argument against it?  

Working backwards, it’s a good deal more than three teams using it at any given time. Those teams have just made it part of the organizational philosophy, and they’ve been probably (inarguably?) the three best defensive teams over the last 20 years as a whole.

There are always several other teams using it at any given time, depending on where the 3-4 coordinators get hired. Right now, you have Minnesota, Miami, Green Bay, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Carolina, maybe a couple others. Maybe as many as half the playoff teams will be 3-4 base teams.

 

To your other point (which is a good/interesting one), I believe the player pool is smaller at some positions and larger at others.

Absolutely, there is a very limited number of humans who are both capable of and willing to take on playing NT. But I think that’s changing a little bit with some of these 1.5 gap Fangio style schemes. The concept is a little esoteric for me, but I think the key is they’re not just asking NTs to go seek out blockers anymore, there’s more freedom to operate and attack. To me, it feels a bit more like all 3 DL play like Payne does in the 4-3 we’ve employed lately: free to attack, but always mindfully. I think we actually have two guys in-house in Ridgeway and Mathis who are worth giving a shot in that role. 

Beyond the NT spot, I think two of the toughest guys to find in the current NFL are the true 4-3 MIKE and the true 4-3 pass-rusher. We’ve been looking for the former for what feels like forever, and while we invested a great deal in seeking the latter, we never really quite got there either. And even when you do get a great pass-rusher in a 4-3, is he going to a target in the run game? There’s maybe 5 guys in the league who can genuinely play both at a very high level (Garrett, Bosa, Crosby…Hendrickson?). 
 

I think it’s very likely that moving to the 3-4 won’t be a specific choice that ownership makes or dictates. But I think it would absolutely behoove the new staff to consider Fangio type DCs, because I think they have probably the best approach to defending modern offenses. And as a side benefit, it would simplify the player acquisition side a lot — there are lots of potential 3-4 EDGE players available in FA and the draft, which really can’t be said for the 4-3 DE types. Though I have heard that Chase Young might hit FA…

[e16bball]

28 minutes ago, ARTMONK HOF said:

 We need this guy. 

He’s got the helium right now. Seems pretty unlikely at this point that he’ll still be there around 70, which is where I had him slotted in my “mock” that I posted a few weeks ago. 

I had Zinter in the early 2nd before his injury, though, so conceivably you could just switch them and get the same outcome. But that would give us only one Day One new starter on the OL (a 1st round OT), so that might not be sufficient.

I think I like but don’t absolutely love Big Sweat. He doesn’t consistently dominate, and while he does make some very impressive plays, he doesn’t splash in the way that guys like Dexter Lawrence and Jordan Davis did. I think it’s hard for a player that huge to consistently maintain his effort and his pad level, which leads to a lot of “nothing” reps when he’s being used more heavily. Still…prototypical NT with surprising explosion, and I’d be down to grab him.

I’d just rather see him closer to pick 55 than pick 35, I think.

[ARTMONK HOF]

40 minutes ago, e16bball said:

He’s got the helium right now. Seems pretty unlikely at this point that he’ll still be there around 70, which is where I had him slotted in my “mock” that I posted a few weeks ago. 

I had Zinter in the early 2nd before his injury, though, so conceivably you could just switch them and get the same outcome. But that would give us only one Day One new starter on the OL (a 1st round OT), so that might not be sufficient.

I think I like but don’t absolutely love Big Sweat. He doesn’t consistently dominate, and while he does make some very impressive plays, he doesn’t splash in the way that guys like Dexter Lawrence and Jordan Davis did. I think it’s hard for a player that huge to consistently maintain his effort and his pad level, which leads to a lot of “nothing” reps when he’s being used more heavily. Still…prototypical NT with surprising explosion, and I’d be down to grab him.

I’d just rather see him closer to pick 55 than pick 35, I think.

I get what you’re saying due to his size could be the reason for him not dominating on each play. His explosiveness at his size is what stuck out to me as mentioned. You hardly ever see that from massive players.

I agree that him being closer to 70 would be preferred but if we do a little trading maybe we’ll have extra picks.

Edited December 11, 2023 by ARTMONK HOF

[MKnight82]

40 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Working backwards, it’s a good deal more than three teams using it at any given time. Those teams have just made it part of the organizational philosophy, and they’ve been probably (inarguably?) the three best defensive teams over the last 20 years as a whole.

There are always several other teams using it at any given time, depending on where the 3-4 coordinators get hired. Right now, you have Minnesota, Miami, Green Bay, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Carolina, maybe a couple others. Maybe as many as half the playoff teams will be 3-4 base teams.

 

To your other point (which is a good/interesting one), I believe the player pool is smaller at some positions and larger at others.

Absolutely, there is a very limited number of humans who are both capable of and willing to take on playing NT. But I think that’s changing a little bit with some of these 1.5 gap Fangio style schemes. The concept is a little esoteric for me, but I think the key is they’re not just asking NTs to go seek out blockers anymore, there’s more freedom to operate and attack. To me, it feels a bit more like all 3 DL play like Payne does in the 4-3 we’ve employed lately: free to attack, but always mindfully. I think we actually have two guys in-house in Ridgeway and Mathis who are worth giving a shot in that role. 

Beyond the NT spot, I think two of the toughest guys to find in the current NFL are the true 4-3 MIKE and the true 4-3 pass-rusher. We’ve been looking for the former for what feels like forever, and while we invested a great deal in seeking the latter, we never really quite got there either. And even when you do get a great pass-rusher in a 4-3, is he going to a target in the run game? There’s maybe 5 guys in the league who can genuinely play both at a very high level (Garrett, Bosa, Crosby…Hendrickson?). 
 

I think it’s very likely that moving to the 3-4 won’t be a specific choice that ownership makes or dictates. But I think it would absolutely behoove the new staff to consider Fangio type DCs, because I think they have probably the best approach to defending modern offenses. And as a side benefit, it would simplify the player acquisition side a lot — there are lots of potential 3-4 EDGE players available in FA and the draft, which really can’t be said for the 4-3 DE types. Though I have heard that Chase Young might hit FA…

Do you think Payne could play NT or do you think he'd be a 3-4 DE? 

[ARTMONK HOF]

13 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Do you think Payne could play NT or do you think he'd be a 3-4 DE? 

I know you asked E but if you don’t mind me giving my thoughts.

I might be wrong here but I believe he would be a DE in the 3-4 with his athleticism and ability to get to the QB.

[e16bball]

35 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Do you think Payne could play NT or do you think he'd be a 3-4 DE? 

He actually did play 3-4 NT for us during his first two seasons in the league (prior to Rivera moving us back to the 4-3). So I’d say he definitely could, but I think that might be a bit of a waste of his talent for penetrating.

In theory, a lot of the more modern schemes don’t have the traditional two-gap responsibilities where the NT is little more than a clogger — but I still think you’re going to see a lot more double-teams at 0 or 1 than you do as a 5-tech. Two badasses like Allen/Payne working pass-rush with two twitchy EDGE guys is fun to think about, in the same way that guys like Heyward/Tuitt have helped open the door for so many of their decorated pass-rushers over the years.

The other thing I guess is that most defensive fronts are at least somewhat multiple nowadays, just to keep these QBs off balance. Lots of times, you might see them replace the NT with another DB or something, so it would just be Allen and Payne as the only down linemen, flanked by the two EDGEs — which, if you’re picturing it, is basically just a classic 4-3 alignment. In the same way that the “5-man DL” they’ve been using for years is just a 3-4 where the EDGES put their hand on ground (unless they’re Chase Young).

[offbyone]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

Working backwards, it’s a good deal more than three teams using it at any given time. Those teams have just made it part of the organizational philosophy, and they’ve been probably (inarguably?) the three best defensive teams over the last 20 years as a whole.

There are always several other teams using it at any given time, depending on where the 3-4 coordinators get hired. Right now, you have Minnesota, Miami, Green Bay, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Carolina, maybe a couple others. Maybe as many as half the playoff teams will be 3-4 base teams.

 

To your other point (which is a good/interesting one), I believe the player pool is smaller at some positions and larger at others.

Absolutely, there is a very limited number of humans who are both capable of and willing to take on playing NT. But I think that’s changing a little bit with some of these 1.5 gap Fangio style schemes. The concept is a little esoteric for me, but I think the key is they’re not just asking NTs to go seek out blockers anymore, there’s more freedom to operate and attack. To me, it feels a bit more like all 3 DL play like Payne does in the 4-3 we’ve employed lately: free to attack, but always mindfully. I think we actually have two guys in-house in Ridgeway and Mathis who are worth giving a shot in that role. 

Beyond the NT spot, I think two of the toughest guys to find in the current NFL are the true 4-3 MIKE and the true 4-3 pass-rusher. We’ve been looking for the former for what feels like forever, and while we invested a great deal in seeking the latter, we never really quite got there either. And even when you do get a great pass-rusher in a 4-3, is he going to a target in the run game? There’s maybe 5 guys in the league who can genuinely play both at a very high level (Garrett, Bosa, Crosby…Hendrickson?). 
 

I think it’s very likely that moving to the 3-4 won’t be a specific choice that ownership makes or dictates. But I think it would absolutely behoove the new staff to consider Fangio type DCs, because I think they have probably the best approach to defending modern offenses. And as a side benefit, it would simplify the player acquisition side a lot — there are lots of potential 3-4 EDGE players available in FA and the draft, which really can’t be said for the 4-3 DE types. Though I have heard that Chase Young might hit FA…

Maybe I am too close to our experience with the 3-4 and that is coloring my thoughts on it.  But I have always gotten the sense that it is hard to find players out of college to play the dline positions.  This type of gap responsibilities are used less in college.  Then with the 3-4 olb/DEs, they are hard to find because they have to be good at so many things.  

I hear what you are saying in that the 3-4 Defensive linemen are being given more latitude these days.  You are probably right as inside pressure seems up across the board.

I don't know about us failing to find a 4-3 mike, I don't think we tried too hard.  We drafted Davis too high and he only had 1 year of experience and then were shocked when he couldn't do it.  Other than that we have gotten veteran players from the throw away pile and when that yielded poor results we abandoned the position and instead decided on these hybrid safety guys.

 

I sure hope ownership has zero say in the matter.  But if there is any influence on the coaching staff from above, I hope it is just that the GM is feeding the coaching staff analytics on personnel fit pool size.  I think that is a very important factor.  Maybe I am wrong about my opinion that the 3-4 pools are smaller.  Either way though, I think the best approach is to pick a scheme where available player pool is the biggest coming out of college.  

[turtle28]

The Steelers use more of a one-gap scheme nowadays that E is talking about. They don’t have a huge NT anymore. There are only 2 teams which I can think of that do use huge 2-gap NTs on run downs still and that’s Baltimore with Michael Pierce & Carolina with Derek Brown.

Also, as I used to always say when we ran the 3-4, defenses nowadays run more 5 DBs & that wouldn’t change if we went to a base 3-4. I’d envision us having 3 DT types on the field only for run downs w/ 2 traditional 3-4 ILB/4-3 LB types & either 3 safeties or 3 CBs depending on the other teams position group.
 

Probably like 70-80% of the game we’d have 2 DTs (mostly Allen & Payne) two 3-4 OLBs/4-3 DE types, our MIKE LB or preferably Jamin Davis who’d play 3-4 WILB on run downs but MIKE on passing downs w/ a SS type like Cam Curl at WILB on passing downs & then 3 CBs & 2 safeties.

Also as I said on another page, 2 of our current DEs are 255 pounds or less in Henry & Andre Jones then, if we retain Shaka Toney that’s a 3rd DE tweener type who’d fit the 3-4 better IMO.

So, if we signed say Brian Burns in FA, we’d presumably be set at the 3-4 OLB position for next year.

Then we’d just have to sign/draft a slot corner & a MIKE LB.

Edited December 12, 2023 by turtle28

[turtle28]

4 hours ago, ARTMONK HOF said:

 We need this guy. 

The only way I’m drafting a DT is if we trade Allen or Payne, which conceivably we could do, especially Allen who suggested like TWill in 2019 that he was tired of playing for a loser & wanted to go to a winning franchise.

Conceivably, I could see us trading Jon Allen to one of the teams that are in the playoffs this year for their 2nd rnd pick plus a late round pick. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by turtle28

[lavar703]

I just have no interest in going back to the 3-4. We can't even find one good MLB let alone two. And we spent years running this defense never having a true nose. Its a great defense when it works but I feel the components are very hard to find. 

[turtle28]

40 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I just have no interest in going back to the 3-4. We can't even find one good MLB let alone two. And we spent years running this defense never having a true nose. Its a great defense when it works but I feel the components are very hard to find. 

Well truthfully other than over drafting Jamin Davis in 2021 we haven’t tried to get a good to great MIKE since Fletcher retired. It’s been one of the real head scratcher with the way Allen/McCloughan/Kyle Smith/Gruden & Rivera/JDR & the Marty’s have built this defense over the last decade.

As far as I’m concerned you don’t have ish on D unless you have a good to great MLB/floor general. We’ve barely tried to get it since Fletcher retired.

[taylor made]

I think Jayden has better potential than Sam Howell but he comes with a lot of risks. His weight/slender frame is an issue and I don't feel he has a great pro comparison. Should be interesting to see what he runs. He should definitely get some consideration.